Buyer Beware: Flaws with the Top-5 Free Agent Shortstops

I think in all of the mentioned players have a flaw going forward, that their defense is going to make them move from SS, as Semian already did.  You pay top dollar for a SS that can field it at either elite level with average offense, or elite offense with at least average defense.  I would worry signing any to major deals for the combo of wasted value at end of deal, if not quickly.  Look at Lindor, signed huge deal and already looks like it was a terrible deal for the Mets. 

Nice article.

Other than locking up Buxton, there is no reason the Twins should be spending big $$$ this offseason. With the loss of Berrios and Maeda, 2022 will be a tryout camp for the starting rotation. It makes more sense for the Twins to be active in free agency during the 2022-2023 offseason.

I especially don't think they should be locking up a SS long-term when they have some legit possible in-house candidates.

Nice summary, you really showed the flaws and for the money that they want and will get it is not worth it.  This is not the time where a SS will put us over the top.  Use what we have - Polanco, Gordon, Martin, Lewis - piece it together for another year and see if the prospects can take over.  Then invest in one very good SP and one very good RP.  

I can see teams paying a lot of money for players who are past their prime in this scenario.  How has Lindor or Bauer worked out on big contracts?  Mookie Betts played great his first year in LA - This year a 264 with 23 HRs output is not at the value of his contract 

• Years: 12 (through 2032)
• Total value: $365 million
• Signing bonus: $65 million
• Average per year: $30,416,667 (11th in MLB) 
• Contract details

Everyone was excited about D J Mahieu - he signed a big contract and then batted 268 with 1.5 WAR.

The Brewers were happy to sign Jackie Bradley, Jr and managed to get -0.7 WAR.

Marcell Ozuna looked great then his personal issues damaged the Atlanta Braves like Trevor Bauer and the Dodgers.

I am not a big contract guy.  Paying for past performance makes no sense and MLB has really fallen into its own trap.  Look at the Angels - Rodon, Trout, and now Ohtani will have monster contracts and no post season.  Some sense has to prevail. 

Correa is the only true shortstop long term and one id feel most confident signing longterm.

I’d keep an eye on what the dodgers end up doing with Corey Seager. If they end up with an extension, I’d look to lock in on Trea Turner next offseason.

It sure doesn't seem like these guys have much to gain from signing on as one-year rentals while we try to get Royce set up. Can we realistically lock down any of these guys for just 2022, at any price?

I agree with the consensus, don't sign big name FAs. They're not worth it.

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

...Semien. I was a big proponent of signing him last offseason but he's pushing well past 30 years old at this point...

He turned 31 like two weeks ago. Not sure if 2 weeks into age 31 is pushing well past 30. He probably even remembers as far back as his 29th birthday 13 months ago?

The only one I would remotely consider, only because the price may fall dramatically is Javier Baez.  We are night in a position to spend big on a long term SS.  Our only hope is Martin or Lewis develop.  
 

this article should really focus on the next tier free agent SS, that’s where our market likely sits.

If Story can be had at a relative discount due to his average 2021 season, I’d kick the tires on him. But with the risk of big FA deals, I don’t see our FO pursuing any of these guys.

I'd be shocked if any of them got an offer from the Twins. It's just not gonna happen. I'm hoping for 2022 they can find a defensive specialist that can hit a better that Anderlton did. And re-evaluate next offseason. I'm still hoping Royce Lewis can be a competent SS. 

chpettit19 has solid arguments regarding how the Twins could move towards their next roster. It seems, to most people, that a resolution to a contract for Byron Buxton takes precedence over the offseason and this seems both necessary and unfortunate at the same time. Unless the Twins meet Buxton's price there won't be a quick decision and this may slow down the other moves needed to rectify an unbalanced roster.

Another factor is the budget. A $100 million roster will look quite a bit different than a $135-145 million team. At some point the Twins need to push Duran, Winder, Balazovic, SWR, and Canterino forward, although I do agree their developments have been handled well thus far. We can hope that these pitchers fill in next year where Thorpe and others were to help this past season. The Twins can make two or three trades for decent starting pitchers and sign a free agent, maybe even Pineda, as well as find a solid reliever. The trick will be in finding a trading partner.

The Twins need a shortstop and while I do not expect they will be in on the top players (Correa, Seager, Semien, Baez, Story), they can if they choose. This is where I agree, sign a shorstop with Polanco and Buxtonthe Twins are strong in the middle.

To support a big signing the Twins need good pitchers and this is where the trades come into play. I'm dangling Garver (because he is desirable), Arraez, Larnach, Sano, Kepler, Rooker, Duffey, and even perhaps a promising prospect such as Lewis, Martin, Miranda, and Celestino. In no way I am suggesting trading nearly all of these players but want to discover what teams have an interest in our players to return some starting pitching. The free agent pitchers will not be as good of a value as a Correa. There are many variables and pieces to move around to fit within a fair budget - say @$140 million. 

3 hours ago, Tim said:

Correa is the only true shortstop long term and one id feel most confident signing longterm.

I’d keep an eye on what the dodgers end up doing with Corey Seager. If they end up with an extension, I’d look to lock in on Trea Turner next offseason.

Correa is no better at Short than Polanco, good grief!

Non on that list would be as good defensively as Simmons and fielding is where the Twins are really hurting, although strike out kings in the outfield is a worry.

I'm a Trevor Story fan. I'd love to add him to this team at anything resembling a semi-reasonable price, especially if Buxton doesn't get extended/is traded. (I love Buxton and desperately want him on this team, but I recognize that might not go) He's a fine defensive SS who can swing the bat and I expect his home/road splits might normalize a bit once he gets clear of Coors. I think he's going to be worth at least 12-18 bWAR over the next 4 years and how many seasons of 3-4 bWAR have we compiled at SS in the last decade? (It's 1.) 

I'm in on Story. I think he'd be a nice fit, he's a bit of a "buy low" candidate right now, but even if this is who he is going forward...there's a lot of value there.

32 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think you'd be able to find a professional baseball scout anywhere that would agree that Correa isn't better than Polanco at short. Their arms aren't even comparable. OAA (Baseball Savant) ranked Correa as the 6th best defensive SS in baseball this year. The fielding bible had him #1 in baseball (above Simmons). 

Everyone on this list is significantly better defensively than Polanco. Like it isn't even a debate.

Correa did rank better than Simmons in some categories from Baseball Ref. but his life numbers are  lower especially in range; better bet on Simmons having a bad year, than hoping Correa will get better.

Story would be a good "get", but Correa is the best shortstop. I loved Simmons as a shortstop ... three years ago. There is no comparison between Simmons of 2021 and Correa of 2021, defensively. Simmons had a terrific career -it is over for him. The Twins need to make a decision whether to go after a shortstop or not.

Twins won't really be interested in any of these guys. I expect them to look for a one year stop-gap until Lewis or Martin can assume the position. If you don't think Lewis is the SS of the future, you should have traded him already. 

Story is a legit star. Semien is not a defensive SS already. Correa will get the biggest deal of these five.