The Twins Starting Pitcher With the Most To Prove

9 hours ago, BuffTwins said:

I think Dobnak is probably best suited in relief.  Let him come in as a 6th and 7th inning guy, hopefully with that power sinker and his improved slider, throw 20-30 pitches and get six outs.  That's if Rocco will allow his middle relievers to pitch more than one inning.  

 Dobnak has a profile to be a good reliever.  Power sinker/ slider combo is strong for late innings if he can maximize it, or his starter mix makes for a good swing guy.

I'm very bullish on Ober.  Command is everything, he's got it.  Plus the deception.  So, a five inning playoff start down the road is something I look forward to.

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Except, he spent 2020 doing just that. He worked really hard on his motion/delivery to alleviate the aches and pains he felt previously after pitching. No reports this season of any recurring issues. And his velocity has jumped from high 80's to touching low 90's to being a consistent 92-94 with amazing extension and hiding. 

For him, now, it's all about working on secondary stuff and building up his arm for IP. 

Funny how we are so desperate for internal development for SP but we forget how bad Gibson and Berrios looked initially. And Ober, just the 1st rotational piece to reach the majors, is such a question mark when his initial numbers are better than either of them.

Instant gratification happens so seldom.

I predict nothing for Ober, at this point, other than just maybe being a solid back end option. Just surprised how few look at what he's done thus far and dismiss him.

You hit the nail on the head with the statement I highlighted.  It's understandable that fans don't want to wait.  We want to be charging ahead.  Trade for superstars and sign elite free agents.  This team is not in that position.  That expectation is going to disappoint of the next year plus as the development of Ober and a few more prospects is going to be part of the landscape.  

What's not to like with Ober.  He is a 12th round pick that looks to have a floor of a solid back-end starter.  He has very good mechanics for such a tall guy.  Perhaps he can add strength and even more velocity.  Then, if he can improve just one of his breaking pitches ... what's his ceiling?  He is one of th bright spots in a dismal year for twins fans.  Let's hope Ryan / Winder / Jax and/or a couple others show us their promise the rest of the way.

16 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

 

16 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I'd like to just see him get his work in for the rest of the season. He will be a rotation piece in 2922.

He's lucky. Two lifetimes as an MLB pitcher. I'll probably be an emaciated cow.

It's too bad that people slam others on here that don't always tout the Twins philosophy of prospects and hope for the future.  I have always loved the Twins and still do.  Like a lot of Twins I'm totally frustrated with the direction of the club.  People list these prospects like they are proven major leaguers when most of them will never make it.  Let's hope some of them turn out.  Ober? Love the guy!  I wish they would let him go longer in his outing.

15 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

It's too bad that people slam others on here that don't always tout the Twins philosophy of prospects and hope for the future.  I have always loved the Twins and still do.  Like a lot of Twins I'm totally frustrated with the direction of the club.  People list these prospects like they are proven major leaguers when most of them will never make it.  Let's hope some of them turn out.  Ober? Love the guy!  I wish they would let him go longer in his outing.

It's a matter of perspective.  Some of us have the perspective that the Twins and any other mid market team have no chance unless they develop prospects, especially pitching or we have no chance against the teams that can spend $200M or in the Dodgers case almost $300M.  Relying on free agency is foolish for even the top revenue market.  Ironically, it's the development of said prospects that provide the financial flexibility for a mid market team to add FAs or keep players when they hit free agency.  So, yes, some of us are excited to pursue a direction that has a chance of producing a true contender.

IDK think people are getting slammed as much as certain concepts.  For example, when posters continue to stomp their feet that "we won't pay Jose Berrios" while completely ignoring he insists on going through the free agency process, it gets quite tedious and the responses got predictably more harsh.

No, Ober does not need to go 7 innings. That's not what starting pitchers do anymore. Pineda is barely averaging more than 5 innings per start. If Ober can consistently go 5 innings and keep the team in the game he's a 4th starter.

I'm skeptical that we see the Twins bring up many of the real pitching prospects. Strotman, Balazovic and Duran are on the 40 man roster so we could see them but they will not want to add players early. They already need to evaluate Jax, Barnes, Thorpe, Gant, Burrows, Alcala and Garcia to see if they are worth keeping for 2022. Remember that you don't get to add the whole 40 man in September anymore.

11 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Except, he spent 2020 doing just that. He worked really hard on his motion/delivery to alleviate the aches and pains he felt previously after pitching. No reports this season of any recurring issues. And his velocity has jumped from high 80's to touching low 90's to being a consistent 92-94 with amazing extension and hiding. 

For him, now, it's all about working on secondary stuff and building up his arm for IP. 

Funny how we are so desperate for internal development for SP but we forget how bad Gibson and Berrios looked initially. And Ober, just the 1st rotational piece to reach the majors, is such a question mark when his initial numbers are better than either of them.

Instant gratification happens so seldom.

I predict nothing for Ober, at this point, other than just maybe being a solid back end option. Just surprised how few look at what he's done thus far and dismiss him.

Right on brother! Let's not let ourselves get so desperate for a Berrios replacement that we judge all of the new SP candidates with that lens. They are all going to struggle initially before they improve.  Ober is actually on a good course compared to most, so while Ii think he should go 6 innings a start for fewer starts rather tan 4-5 for more, I don't want to lose sight of the fact that he may be developing into a solid 4/5 starter as early as next year.  And that's a very good thing. 

By the way, Jax has actually looked better than at least I expected this early. Is it possible that our AA/AAA pitching development folks are actually competent? We'll see as the next wave comes up but the early returns are better than I expected. Now let's see some of the mid 20s bullpen guys. Like NOW.   

59 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

No, Ober does not need to go 7 innings. That's not what starting pitchers do anymore. Pineda is barely averaging more than 5 innings per start. If Ober can consistently go 5 innings and keep the team in the game he's a 4th starter.

I'm skeptical that we see the Twins bring up many of the real pitching prospects. Strotman, Balazovic and Duran are on the 40 man roster so we could see them but they will not want to add players early. They already need to evaluate Jax, Barnes, Thorpe, Gant, Burrows, Alcala and Garcia to see if they are worth keeping for 2022. Remember that you don't get to add the whole 40 man in September anymore.

 

While I disagree with you on Ober, you have a good point on the 40 man roster. I took a look and really the only guys I see that we can and perhaps should drop to give other guys a shot in the majors are Beau Burrows (the early results show the Tigers knew what they were doing) and the 30 year olds Luke Farrell and Derek Law.  We could also drop Jake Cave and Kyle Garlick, although Garlick is on the 60 day IL so I guess dropping him doesn't create another spot.  It will be a challenge to find room for to add guys so they can come up this year.  Am I correct that a player has to be on the 40 man roster to be eligible to be on the MLB 26 man roster?

Ober is averaging 17 pitches per inning this year (16.8). At 101 pitches, he'd have 6.0 inning starts. He's clearly being pulled early from games, and that makes sense with his extremely limited innings history. Either that or "Early Hook Baldelli" is just being himself, lol.

Yes, players have to be on the 40 man roster to get on the 26 man roster. Furthermore, September will only be a 28 man roster in 2021.

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

No, Ober does not need to go 7 innings. That's not what starting pitchers do anymore. Pineda is barely averaging more than 5 innings per start. If Ober can consistently go 5 innings and keep the team in the game he's a 4th starter.

 

The issue with the 5 inning start is that you are asking your bullpen to pitch 4 innings, the best bullpen this year is SD with an ERA of 2.90 with amazingly the most innings pitched. But when you get to the 10th best Oakland it is 3.73, and a 1/3 of the team over 4.5.

Asking the SD bullpen to go 3 innings every game, means that on average they will give up 1 run, which is good, but for every game they don't give up a run the expectation is the next night they give up two, and so on, now  add on another inning every game and you can see that by the time you get to the bullpen you have to have a lead or have your offense make up for the starter and the runs their bullpen gives up. And this is for the best bullpen, in the league. Now imagine those numbers were you bullpen ERA is closer to 4 or higher, it gets ugly.

In 2019 the best bullpen was TB at 3.71, (Twins 47), in 2020 Oak and LAD were under 3, but only 4 under 3.5 and that was a crazy short season, in 2018 Houston was the best at 3.03 but that is no surprise with the starting staff they had, the pitched the second fewest innings.

I fully understand that this is the way of MLB right now, but my point is that it doesn't seem to be working to put a starter out there for 4 or 5 innings and then start the bullpen parade, because every night you have to assume one of them is going to give up a run or more, or even multiple pitchers will, any other assumption is bad.

I would think with analytics they should be able to figure out stacking or have starters might relief the back end of the pens from having to perfect every time. I just get sick of watching pitchers have 20 pitches per inning and knowing they will be pulled the third though the lineup anyway.

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

No, Ober does not need to go 7 innings. That's not what starting pitchers do anymore. Pineda is barely averaging more than 5 innings per start. If Ober can consistently go 5 innings and keep the team in the game he's a 4th starter.

I'm skeptical that we see the Twins bring up many of the real pitching prospects. Strotman, Balazovic and Duran are on the 40 man roster so we could see them but they will not want to add players early. They already need to evaluate Jax, Barnes, Thorpe, Gant, Burrows, Alcala and Garcia to see if they are worth keeping for 2022. Remember that you don't get to add the whole 40 man in September anymore.

 

I agree completely on Ober not so sure I buy into the 40 man crunch.  We have guys that can be cut.  Nothing about Barnes suggests he is a MLB pitcher to me.  However, if you want to get another look at him, Smeltzer and Thorpe have had plenty of opportunity.  IDK what they saw in Burrows and they could let Cave go too.  To give up the opportunity to see some of the higher ceiling guys at the MLB level this season for the sake of the above mention players does not make sense if the guys like Winder / Canterino / Ryan / Sands are ready.

Now, if they want to take a longer term approach, I could see the argument of giving Jax and Gant a look so that they can be moved off if it's determined they are expendable but I would add Ryan and drop Smeltzer and not look back.

8 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I fully understand that this is the way of MLB right now

Jose Berrios was basically a 6 inning starter and he's top 10 in innings pitched.

One thing I've often wondered is why starters need as much rest now when they're throwing 80 pitches as they did when they threw 120 pitches. A smart team could shift to a 4 man rotation and get 8 more starts out of their ace.

With a 91-94 mph fastball with movement and control, anyone like this can be a top notch starter.  I will be happy if he can be a pitcher who gets around 10 wins a season and pitches 130-150 innings with a 4.00-4.50 era.  We have a few pitchers like that (Dobnak, Barnes, Jax, Thorpe, and Smeltzer to start) and having 1 or2 in the back of the rotation and a swingman or 2 in the bullpen can make a huge difference over the course of a season by having a lot of depth that can hold their own. 

Anyways we get to see what he and the above can do while we watch the Olympics with 2 of our top starter prospects and maybe in September one or two higher ranked prospects can get the call so we can see them.

It would be nice to see one of these prospects succeed to help take the pressure off of the top prospects and give us a nice floor to work from. 

9 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Right on brother! Let's not let ourselves get so desperate for a Berrios replacement that we judge all of the new SP candidates with that lens. They are all going to struggle initially before they improve.  Ober is actually on a good course compared to most, so while Ii think he should go 6 innings a start for fewer starts rather tan 4-5 for more, I don't want to lose sight of the fact that he may be developing into a solid 4/5 starter as early as next year.  And that's a very good thing. 

By the way, Jax has actually looked better than at least I expected this early. Is it possible that our AA/AAA pitching development folks are actually competent? We'll see as the next wave comes up but the early returns are better than I expected. Now let's see some of the mid 20s bullpen guys. Like NOW.   

Only to clarify my point...and not win some debate...I absolutely agree that Ober, and any SP for that matter, simply must learn to throw 5+ innings. The reason I like the plan for Ober to throw 4 and 5 innings only, for now, is two fold:

1] Two successful turns through the lineup allows him to save his arm to hopefully finish the season, refine his stuff and learn and grow, while having a little less pressure initially by not having to face too many batters a third time. Hoping this breeds growing  confidence. 

2] The Twins will, hopefully, be auditioning some pen arms the last 2 months. I want them to have opportunity. Also, really hoping they either go to a 6 man rotation, or do some piggybacking here and there to get some of their young starters a chance to gain experience and get their feet wet.

Just my thoughts, not saying I'm right. And I continue to be frustrated about the limitations for September call ups. Teams like the Twins need to have a larger roster in order to get a number of guys an opportunity to gain experience or show they may be a viable option for 2022.

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Only to clarify my point...and not win some debate...I absolutely agree that Ober, and any SP for that matter, simply must learn to throw 5+ innings. The reason I like the plan for Ober to throw 4 and 5 innings only, for now, is two fold:

1] Two successful turns through the lineup allows him to save his arm to hopefully finish the season, refine his stuff and learn and grow, while having a little less pressure initially by not having to face too many batters a third time. Hoping this breeds growing  confidence. 

2] The Twins will, hopefully, be auditioning some pen arms the last 2 months. I want them to have opportunity. Also, really hoping they either go to a 6 man rotation, or do some piggybacking here and there to get some of their young starters a chance to gain experience and get their feet wet.

Just my thoughts, not saying I'm right. And I continue to be frustrated about the limitations for September call ups. Teams like the Twins need to have a larger roster in order to get a number of guys an opportunity to gain experience or show they may be a viable option for 2022.

Good points although I don't know that the September roster size has to be an issue.  They could manage innings accordingly.  Pineda Maeda get get 3-4 innings then prospects gets some innings.  In a normal year this would might be frowned upon because of playoff implications for our opponents.  However, it would probably be viewed differently this year with the concern for protecting pitchers from too many IP.  Plus, better to get a good look at a few than a glimpse at many.  In the case a few is probably 6 or 7 pitching prospects.