Astros and Cubs Have Proven Twins Time to Spend is Now

Nice write up Ted.

I've long rolled my eyes at the people who bellyache every year about the Twins not spending enough because it's the Twins and that's what they do, but this is the first off season in a long time where a lack of big time spending would be downright criminal. Think how differently this past season would have gone with just one frontline starter. Imagine instead of Dobnak (who I actually like and am interested to see develop) starting a playoff game, it was Cole or Strausberg or someone of that ilk. And it's not even like they need to break the bank -- if they just spend into being in the top half of payroll in MLB, they could put together a real juggernaut.

I fully believe they are willing to spend $140-150M. However, it’s not a simple as they get the player if they offer the most. Players use other teams to drive the price up. Ultimately, they take the best offer(s) to the team they want to go to and say match it. These teams are not so naive as to agree to match without a commitment that they will accept their offer. I have heard former GMs discuss this on the radio and I had a former GM (NBA GM) tell me the same thing on the golf course.

I believe they can resign Odo and Pineada. They need to convince just one of the top guys to come here. Two would be great. I liked the idea of front loading a deal with Wheeler or Bumgarner. I really don’t like the opt out but would go there if it was the difference in getting one of these guys.

What one team proves anther shows the opposite. The Phillies spent around 50 million more. Dombrowski spent, now Boston is looking like a wreck. Speaking of wrecks, there is the rise and fall of the Tigers. One and done are the Cubs. Like Boston they got to the top with spending and a core of young players. It lasted for a moment and now that moment is gone. (Sort of like dust in the wind) Year in and year out the Dodgers are at the top of the list. Did they win a WS this century? When it works like in Houston you are a genius.  When it works once in a town that has not won, you are a genius. Elsewhere, pitchforks.

What one team proves anther shows the opposite. The Phillies spent around 50 million more. Dombrowski spent, now Boston is looking like a wreck. Speaking of wrecks, there is the rise and fall of the Tigers. One and done are the Cubs. Like Boston they got to the top with spending and a core of young players. It lasted for a moment and now that moment is gone. (Sort of like dust in the wind) Year in and year out the Dodgers are at the top of the list. Did they win a WS this century? When it works like in Houston you are a genius.  When it works once in a town that has not won, you are a genius. Elsewhere, pitchforks.

I would not be too down on the the Dodgers They have averaged 96 wins over the past 7 seasons and never less than 92. They went through a period times as did the Yankees where they tried to win with FAs and trades for high profile players. They were mediocre during that period. They changed their practices emphasizing prospects and development. This year’s team had 6 position players with a WAR above 2. Five were either drafted or traded for as prospects. The other (Turner) signed a minor league contract.

They had 4 pitchers with a WAR above 2. They drafted Kershaw and Buehler. Of course, they resigned Kershaw. Meada was an international signing for $25M over 8 years. Ryu was a one year 17.9M  contract. No big free agents and no trades for established players. Interesting they put so much emphasis on prospects when they could outspend the Twins by $100M

Remember a lot of that spending is going to have to be used on their young core also. So really can't go super crazy. Could get a real expensive pitcher but probably can't get like 2 or 3 expensive free agents.

Remember a lot of that spending is going to have to be used on their young core also. So really can't go super crazy. Could get a real expensive pitcher but probably can't get like 2 or 3 expensive free agents.

The players that will increasing significantly over current levels over the next three years are Buxton / Sano / Rosario / Berrios / Rogers and eventually Garver. $12M for Cruz drops off after 2020. Cron also drops off assuming they keep him this year. $9M for Gonzales comes off in 2021.

They will replace Rosario with either Larnach or Kiriloff at some point of the next 2 years so Rosario’s current salary and eventual increase is not an issue. It will actually be a source of payroll $. Cruz / Gonzales / Rosario & Cron coming off will provide payroll capacity of a little over $30M AAV from current levels. That should fund all the arbitration increases.

Of course, they need to replace them with prospects. What they really need is for a couple guys to emerge and provide low cost. That makes spending on FA pitching now feasible without creating the same issue other teams have faced recently with running out of payroll capacity. This is why prospects are so crucial, especially to teams with modest revenue.

I would not be too down on the the Dodgers They have averaged 96 wins over the past 7 seasons and never less than 92. They went through a period times as did the Yankees where they tried to win with FAs and trades for high profile players. They were mediocre during that period. They changed their practices emphasizing prospects and development. This year’s team had 6 position players with a WAR above 2. Five were either drafted or traded for as prospects. The other (Turner) signed a minor league contract.

 

They had 4 pitchers with a WAR above 2. They drafted Kershaw and Buehler. Of course, they resigned Kershaw. Meada was an international signing for $25M over 8 years. Ryu was a one year 17.9M  contract. No big free agents and no trades for established players. Interesting they put so much emphasis on prospects when they could outspend the Twins by $100M

Dodger were just below the luxury tax threshold. The cautionary tale there is the 40 million in dead money.  A great 7 year run. 1 loss in the WS. The theory of spend and it will vault you to the next level (the subject of the blog) is wishful thinking

I've long rolled my eyes at the people who bellyache every year about the Twins not spending enough because it's the Twins and that's what they do, but this is the first off season in a long time where a lack of big time spending would be downright criminal. Think how differently this past season would have gone with just one frontline starter. Imagine instead of Dobnak (who I actually like and am interested to see develop) starting a playoff game, it was Cole or Strausberg or someone of that ilk. And it's not even like they need to break the bank -- if they just spend into being in the top half of payroll in MLB, they could put together a real juggernaut.

I feel you.  I honestly do.

However, we scored 7 runs in 3 games and that just isn't cutting it.  This has happened time and time again against the Yankees.

Go after pitching for sure....but until the culture changes we will continue to lay down like lambs against them.  It was a hard thing to come to terms with, but that is what I did after the 2010 season ended.  We had possibly one of the best lineups this franchise ever had that season and we STILL tightened up and played like weaklings

I think we have lost against them not because we haven't pitched well enough.  We have lost to them because we average less than three runs a game against them in the playoffs.  Even if we had Strasburg, Cole, Frank Viola and Jack Morris we still probably would not win if we hit like that

What's the alternative for this year? Punt?

I think the message was it’s going to take more than throwing money at free agent pitching

By the way, Houston got their pitch through trades and the Cubs big signing (Darvish) has been a disaster. There were people screaming that we should hand him a blank check! Caveat emptor.

Like I said in my last post, the culture has to change if we are ever getting anywhere in the postseason. Getting to the postseason seems to the objective and then hope for the best. As if we are waiting for fairies and angels to grant us luck ...and if they don’t OK we made it to the postseason, so that’s good enough.

That mindset isn’t cutting it. I thought it was dead and buried but it’s not. Rocco confirmed that by telling us he’s just fine not winning a game in the postseason

The sad reality is that the Cubs, Houston, Boston, Dodgers all have revenue streams that produce $100,000,000 or more than the Twins do. You cannot do  what they do when you do not have the same resources.  The Twins could have a 150 million payroll.  They have the resources for that. The other teams have 58 million more or more that they can spend. Some spent more, than 208, some less. As these teams that have won a WS have spent near the cap err luxury tax threshold or over they have fallen afterwards.LA has maintained because they have developed talent. Unfortunately, they have not won a WS, or they would be the model. They had the resources to withstand the bad contracts. They still had to give away players to get under the cap tax.

If being aware that you do not have the resources the other teams have and you can't do what they do is punting so be it. Strange use of the word

They are seventy million below the number you posted. You also posted they should not sign expensive free agents. They have one starting pitcher on the roster. What should they do?

I did not explicitly say they should not spend money on big free agents, You can not find those words.  The article was about spending like the Cubs and Houston and look what happened to them. The other side of that coin is what happens when you spend. and it does not work out.  Any one year contract is great. Two years not so bad, Addison Reed being an exception. 3 years and you might get one good year. Now if the staff in Target Center are as smart as the Nationals at selecting pitcher the team will be fine. They seemed to have signed and extended the right players as well as not signed the right players. The only exception might be Giolito, but to me, a little more time to determine breakout versus fluke year.