Assessing the Luis Arraez for Pablo López Trade

So instead of watching Arraez work the count and play intelligent baseball, I get to watch Gallo strike out. No thanks. I'll watch fewer games this year.

4 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

So instead of watching Arraez work the count and play intelligent baseball, I get to watch Gallo strike out. No thanks. I'll watch fewer games this year.

But if Gallo’s 30 hits next year, 15 of them will be home runs. Arraez only hit 9 last year and 15 is more than 9. That math works right?

Agree on all counts Matthew

It's hard to trade a player like Arraez but we needed a front-line pitcher and this was time to make a trade like this. Lopez is rated as a middle #2 SP, while S Gray is rated at low#2/ high #3. So Lopez should be our best SP going into the season. Salas & Chourio helps to restock our farm system with 2 athletic 2 way prospects.

7 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Couldn't it just as well be said:

"(Miami) are doing what you always want to do in trades, selling high on their player"

There's as much reason to believe Lopez is at peak value as Arraez. Probably more.

You could say that.  I don't believe that to be the case though.

Interesting take on the trade from SI.com: https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/01/20/luis-arraez-trade-pablo-lopez-twins-marlins

It's an interesting trade. Lopez is a good pitcher and this rotation looks pretty deep now and well positioned to absorb injury. Salas is a really interesting prospect who could turn out to be something interesting. He hit well last year in low A, struggled more in high A. He's only 19, so who knows. 

I'll really miss Arraez though. Fun player to watch, but I think it's fair to look at last season and think "this might be the best it's going to be for Arraez". The knees are a real worry, it's hard to see him adding any additional power, and he's not a particularly good hitter against LHP. We'll see how he holds up at 2B for the Fish. If he does, and hits like he did last season, they're going to be very happy. If he can't hold up at 2B, gets hurt, or hits more like 2021...

30 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

So instead of watching Arraez work the count and play intelligent baseball, I get to watch Gallo strike out. No thanks. I'll watch fewer games this year.

You must not have watched the last two months of the season.  Arraez didn't strike out... But also didn't do anything else.  He squeaked his way into a batting title because Judge couldn't buy a home run or hit either.  

55 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

So instead of watching Arraez work the count and play intelligent baseball, I get to watch Gallo strike out. No thanks. I'll watch fewer games this year.

Relax. Joey Gallo won’t be the only player on the field this season. Watch some other ones.

Let's hope this works out for the Twins,and aren't looking at another pitcher with TJ needed. Where are the hits going to come from with this lineup. The team average without Arraez is 220-225. The team with him 240-245,which is still below average. Pitching is needed,but if the team can't hit what good is it. Tired of watching a team that looks to hit homeruns only and a manager who thinks that OK.

Losing Arraez is, of course, a really big bummer. Hearing about what he's like as a teammate and his approach to hitting is really, really incredible. BUT, the rest of his on-field metrics are difficult to look at, and I can't imagine it necessarily felt good to trade him.

Sure, Lopez isn't an ace, but Arraez wasn't an MVP either. Looking at what the starting pitching rotation will be this year versus last? My god, it isn't even close. Better to have five "number three" starters than two of them plus whatever one considers Archer and Bundy.

Judging by the reaction by both Twins and Marlins fans (both fanbases clearly not all that stoked), this seems to have been a relatively fair trade, if not slightly better for the Twins.

Luis Arraez is one of my absolute favorite Twins ever.  I hate the fact that he won't be playing for the Twins anymore.

That being said, I think this is a fantastic trade.  Aside from the generic "you can't ever have too much pitching", which is true of course, the Twins are a better hitting team than pitching -- and may still be so after this trade.  Lopez is a pitcher in the same class as Gray and Mahle and whether he slots in as #1, #2, or #3 is irrelevant.  He makes the team better and that's what any trade is really all about. 

We are trading two years of Arraez for two years of Lopez, which I think is a good trade -- pitching is usually harder to get than hitting.  The final year of controllable Arraez is being traded for one excellent prospect (top 100ish) and one good looking prospect who is miles away from the majors, which is also reasonable.

Untalked about here and elsewhere is that if Arraez had collected four less hits this season, Aaron Judge would have won the triple crown and Luis Arraez would have just been a "good hitter Luis Arraez" and not "American League Batting Champion Luis Arraez."  Perception matters a lot and it probably contributes greatly to the value it brought back in this trade.  I think there is a good chance that Arraez wins another batting title, but I still think this was a good trade.

I'm still handing the ball to Joe Cool on Opening Day, but Lopez is a good addition.  I really hate losing Arraez, because his PAs were often the highlights of any game.  The FO was smart to sell high on Arraez instead of selling low on Kepler at this point.  

Interesting trade, it appears the Twins got the better part of the deal, but a little weary. Lopez is a solid pitcher, but last year was the first time he's gone above around 111 innings and jumped all the way to 180 innings. I really hope we don't see a scenario where he makes 5 starts then suddenly is largely done until he's a free agent. Risk you largely have to take with pitching I guess. The rotation looks the deepest it's been for quite some time. With the huge layoff and prior experience as a bullpen weapon I wonder if they'll consider moving Maeda to the bullpen which could really shore that group up. 

Only issue now is this lineup seems pretty iffy to me. Arraez was one of the few guys that took good at bats and could deliver a hit when they needed it. They could be hard to watch outside of the top of the lineup. Of course, maybe this means they're confident Kirilloff's wrist issue may be behind him now? He could be a guy that if healthy, could make up for the loss of Arraez in the lineup. At least this roster is looking a lot better than it did a few weeks ago. 

https://www.startribune.com/twins-trade-luis-arraez-batting-craftsman-doesnt-set-well-patrick-reusse/600245265/

Says is all, and well.

I have to say I am a bit surprised that Miami had to give essentially double the value for Arraez but they gave up things that shouldn't hurt them that bad and they literally got the American League Batting champion.  We didn't really get an ace and we only got two years of Lopez so I guess the difference needed to be made up somewhere.  It would have been pretty hard for Miami to find a better player for the deal they gave the Twins IMO.

That being said the Twins needed another solid pitcher to make sure this team can compete with the Guardians and White Sox and it looks like Lopez was the most attainable.  If the Twins can't resign him after two years there is a good chance they at least get a comp pick for him leaving granted the same should be true for Miami and Arraez.  I know Luis's knee's can give him trouble but Miami is getting a guy that can work counts and hits well with men on base.  They got what they needed and they have a lot of good arms coming up and got value for Lopez who they could afford to lose.  Once those Miami fans see Luis in action they will be happy with this trade.

Getting Lopez helps buy the Twins time for the pithing pipeline to produce some quality arms.  Next year they would still have Ryan, Ober, Paddack and now Lopez.  With Winder, Varland, SWR and Maybe Balazovich in the wings they get time to let them develop and see what they have.  It also gives time for Enlow, Headrick, Festa and Maybe Raya to be possible rotation pieces in 2024 or 2025.  So the trade helps but two years is not that long.

Getting a near top 100 Prospect in Jose Salas was a nice get.  I would have prefered pitching but a possible star player at short or third or Center is still helpful given all the prospects we had traded away recently.  They also got to hedge that bet with another interesting international signee Chourio who looks like he has good plate discipline, speed and only really lacks power at this time.  If those two or even one of them make it that gives the Twins another 6 controllable years of an asset and I like the odds for both players.

I think the OP has it right.  This trade worked for both teams as one really needed a solid hitter and the other a solid pitcher.  Hopefully this is one of those win, win deals.

The only way I can address this is to abbreviate and combine a couple of previous posts.

Arraez might be my favorite Twins player. And I've argued at length over and over that there are many ways to build a lineup. I've never had a problem with Areaez playing predominantly 1B/DH and being a special and unique bat who fits in the #1 hole and being a clutch hitter. There is no reason, in today's game, where your power and run production can't come from the other 8 spots! You just don't HAVE to have a powerful 1B/DH to have a quality, productive lineup with the way baseball has changed over the years. 

Adding a quality, young arm with at least some upside, is never a bad decision. I'm not crazy about only 2yrs of control, or a pitcher who's never topped 21 GS until 2022. Does that mean he's just reaching his prime? Or does 2022 turn out to be the outlier? I'm betting, talent and age, he's probably just coming in to his own. He's got a good career WHIP, but only a 8.6K per 9 which would seem to indicate he's not going to develop into a #1 at any time. But that doesn't mean he's not a good pitcher with upside! 

For the NOW of the trade, I'm dismissing the addition of the prospects, even though there might be some potential excitement there.

Leaving emotion out of the equation of losing perhaps my favorite player, the pure logic of adding another quality arm is hard to dismiss. Unfortunately, the loss of Arraez opens up the question of who bats #1, and who plays 1B if Kirilloff doesn’t turn out to be healthy and be the primary 1B? There almost has to be another move made to the roster still. Even a healthy AK has the Twins player roster at 11 guys you can write in with ink. And that INCLUDES the Twins keeping Kepler, who's been rumored to be moved for weeks.  Again, there pretty much HAS to be at least 1 more move made to the player roster. 

Part of the problem losing Arraez NOW is that it's questionable that the players who might replace his bat are ready to do so. But the reality is that by 2024 the Twins INF, they were looking at Miranda, Correa, Polanco, AK, Arraez, AND Lewis, Lee, Martin and Julien. SOMEONE was going to be moved at some point, either now or next year. Even with Martin probably moving to the OF, and Lewis as a POSSIBLE OF move, SOMEONE was going to get moved. It turns out, it's Arraez NOW for a SP. That's just the reality. 

My emotions say I'm bummed and depressed that Arraez is gone. The logical, amateur GM in my head saw Areaez being moved eventually, with the projected 2024 "crunch" of other players that probably have more pure athletic talent and future projection. So I'm bummed as can be, but I can see the logic of the move and future projections and the add of a quality SP.

But this move needs to be followed up to make it really work. There's room to add another BP piece, but somehow, they need to add another bat somehow. Even then, the player portion of the roster still would have a hole left. Is that Garlick when a couple arms get moved to the 60 man? Larnach csn be a swap for Kepler. Or does this leave room for a prospect who has a great ST? 

The amateur/fan GM in me says I wouldn't have done this deal, and trust in what I had and the young depth and add a pen piece. The logical, practical GM in me says adding a quality SP and trusting in all of my young position player talent makes this trade pretty smart.

The fan in me is HURTING! The logical part of me says this could be really smart as long as we're not done adding yet.

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

It's hard to trade a player like Arraez but we needed a front-line pitcher and this was time to make a trade like this. Lopez is rated as a middle #2 SP, while S Gray is rated at low#2/ high #3. So Lopez should be our best SP going into the season. Salas & Chourio helps to restock our farm system with 2 athletic 2 way prospects.

Doc, Who rated Lopez higher than Gray?

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

For what it's worth, Dan Hayes has reported the Twins have no plans to move Maeda to the pen. Ober to AAA is the most likely option it sounds like.

Doubt it, firstly they’d move someone to the pen and option down a reliever. I think Gray and Kepler are about to go, we still need another strong bat, a RH OF and a High-End Relief Pitcher to make a serious push this year, and Gray and Kepler seem like enough to get those trades done.

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

For what it's worth, Dan Hayes has reported the Twins have no plans to move Maeda to the pen. Ober to AAA is the most likely option it sounds like.

I don’t like that.  He’s only good for so many innings a year.  When he’s healthy he’s good.  I’d rather they not waste them in AAA.

None of these guys are really work horses in terms of innings.  Some are coming off injury and aren’t going to be tossing 120 pitches over 7 2/3.  We’re going to see a lot of 4-5 inning starts early in the year:  

Use someone as a swing man to come in and throw 3-4 innings.  I’d rather turn it over to Ober or Maeda in the 5th than stringing together a couple guys like Pagan before Duran.

I will really miss Arraez. I stopped doing everything else and concentrated on the game when he came to bat, He is a joy to watch play the game of baseball. I wish him and his family the very best. I hope he has a great career and earns a ton of money and I hope he is given the respect due the American League Batting Champion for 2022. Good luck Mi Amigo.

FWIW Fangraphs really likes this trade for the Twins https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-twins-won-the-trade-that-had-to-happen/ They are pretty high on Salas and feel he is Minnesota's 3rd rated prospect if I read it correctly.  If true that would mean the first 3 players in the top 30 would be shortstops with 6 total in the top 30 (not including Martin).  Seems impossible.  It also would mean that MN has at least in some instances 3 top 100 shortstop prospects. Crazy times, crazy times,

I'd have preferred Kep and two of our prospects for Lopez, than Arraez for Lopez and two of their prospects.

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

For what it's worth, Dan Hayes has reported the Twins have no plans to move Maeda to the pen. Ober to AAA is the most likely option it sounds like.

Continuing a FWIW arguement, I wouldn't plan on Maeda for the pen either. Nor would I state it openly were I the Twins and even contemplating it. But we all know there is no linear line where all of your SP are 100% all year. And Ober having options is a good thing for roster flexibility. 

But I think Ober has been sold very short on general opinion. (I know this is conversation and not your opinion). Ober debuted in 2021 and was handled with kid gloves due to previous IP. And he not only performed well in a poor season, but he got better as the season went along. He was even better in 2022 when healthy. Now, was his 2022 injury a repeat of past injury issues? Was it a sudden fluke? Or was he a victim of the weird offseason where he, and others, had ZERO contact with the training/coaching staff AND a short ST? 

No clue as to what upset his 2022 vs his healthy 2021. 

I am ABSOLUTELY NOT comparing him to HOF great Randy Johnson, but he reminds me a bit of him. A tall and long pitcher who took time to find delivery/control. Ober's problem was finding a delivery that WORKED because he felt beat up after a start. That lead to injury. He found success with repetition and his new delivery. I repeat, was 2021 an outlier, or was he just messed up from his groin injury and a weird offseason?

I state again I think the Twins really missed his arm in 2022. And maybe he will might never be a 180IP starter, though we al hope he will be. But his numbers scream he could be at least a quality mid rotation SP. 

And I have no clue how the SP will ultimately work out, performance and injury, temporar moves to the pen, etc, etc, I think it's a HUGE mistake to dismiss Ober as one of the Twins best SP options.

I know this OP is about the Lopez acquisition, and I don't mean to derail conversation, but I felt Ober should be brought in to the OP at this point. He is NOT some dismissal back end option.

3 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Twins are a better hitting team than pitching -- and may still be so after this trade. 

Not sure this is the case - really not very good at either, but I’d be hard pressed to say the Twins are a good hitting ball club. At the moment I’d wager the ‘23 Twins are in the bottom 20-25% of all teams in strike outs, BARISP, OBP, and, most importantly, runs scored.

Its more like Falvey thought that even with Arraez the Twins would never be able to hit their way to victory - might as well go long pitching. Better make a few more pen moves if that’s the case.