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  • Assessing the Donaldson and Kiner-Falefa Trade With the Yankees


    Ted Schwerzler

    Just when you thought the Twins had done enough this weekend to keep us on our toes, Derek Falvey went ahead and blew the roof off. A blockbuster with the Yankees started as Jon Heyman suggested a catcher was coming to Minnesota. Then the bomb dropped that Josh Donaldson was moving, and things got crazy.

    Image courtesy of Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

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    Another deal in which the player totals aren’t even; the Twins sent the additional talent this time. Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Ben Rortvedt are going to New York. In exchange, Minnesota gets catcher Gary Sanchez and third basemen Gio Urshela.
     
    There’s no level of this deal that shouldn’t make your head spin, so let’s break it down into smaller pieces.
     
    Third Base
    This is straightforward. Josh Donaldson is moved off the position, and Minnesota is no longer on the hook for his contract's remaining $50 million. Set to make $21.75 million in 2022, a team with something like $35 million in payroll flexibility just pushed that number over $50 million. Donaldson wound up playing just 163 games across two seasons with Minnesota. The shortened pandemic season didn’t help the longevity, but his nagging calf issues were present the first season. 

    There was never a reason why the Twins should’ve considered a cash dump regarding Donaldson and his salary. Still playing at a high level in 2022, any move needed to come with a certain level of return. Ultimately, that’s what ended up happening.

    Gio Urshela debuted with Cleveland back in 2015 but posted just a .587 OPS through his first 148 Major League games. After a short stint in Toronto, he wound up in New York, and boy did Gio arrive in a big way. During 2019 Urshela posted an .889 OPS with 21 homers. He all but replicated that in 2020 before lacking power production last season. His 96 OPS+ basically was league average, however, and he’s just 30-years-old. He’s not the defensive stalwart Donaldson is at the hot corner, but he’s hardly a butcher either.
     
    What Urshela does offer is an easier path to playing time for the likes of Jose Miranda. Should the newly acquired piece continue to decline or start slow, Minnesota won’t hesitate to promote the 2021 standout prospect. Urshela is owed just $6.55M this season, and Miranda will get his opportunity to push for playing time at the hot corner. This is also another area that Luis Arraez could contribute.
     
    Shortstop
    Minnesota had its Opening Day shortstop for something like 35 hours. After acquiring Kiner-Falefa, he was sent to New York, who has been tied to the biggest names at the position. Kiner-Falefa was basically a replica of Andrelton Simmons, minus the weirdness, and now Falvey will go back on the hunt there.

    Urshela has accumulated just over 200 innings at shortstop, but he shouldn’t be considered an option there. Jorge Polanco is not moving back across the diamond, which again turns us back to the market. With so much cash while both Carlos Correa and Trevor Story are still on the market, there’s reasonable speculation that Minnesota could have their sights set there. Both presumably want long-term contracts, and neither Royce Lewis nor Austin Martin are slam dunks to remain at short.
     
    Catcher
    A former All-Star and Silver Slugger, Gary Sanchez joins the Twins as a backup for Ryan Jeffers. He’s not good defensively, and his bat has been lost since 2019, but maybe Minnesota can turn it around for the 29-year-old. Sanchez has solid on-base skills and does show a good amount of discipline in the box. His power potential is immense, with two 30+ home run seasons to his credit, but the key will be finding consistency.

    If it wasn’t apparent when the Twins dealt Mitch Garver, it’s certainly clear now that they’ve leaned all the way into Jeffers as their regular. Ben Rortvedt also went to the Yankees, and he’d be considered the most well-rounded defender of that trio. Jeffers obviously has made enough strides to feel comfort in pairing him with Sanchez, and there shouldn’t be an emphasis on splitting time evenly.
     
    Removing Donaldson opened up a rotational designated hitter spot for Minnesota, but it should be immediately accounted for by Sanchez, who will see regular starts there as well. It’s clear that Minnesota has solidified their plan at catcher, however.
     
    This was a huge move, the second of the day for Minnesota. Now with so much payroll flexibility and an arrow pointed towards competing, there’s no guessing how crazy this front office will get next.

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    2 hours ago, ashbury said:

    Would you trade Ben Rortvedt for Gary Sanchez?  I would not.

    Would you trade Isiah Kiner-Falefa for Gio Urshela?  I would not.

    Exactly this. It's sickening to realize that the Twins would have done better for the roster by outright releasing Donaldson than to make this terrible trade. The only difference is the money saved, which should make very little difference to an owner with deep pockets. 

     

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    3 hours ago, se7799 said:

    So, what did we lose by signing him?  Nothing like waiting 3 years for an I told you so.

    We will never know what we lost by signing him, but it was still a mistake, and not just because of his calf problems. I was not a fan of Donaldson before the Twins signed him. I don't like his style of play. 

     

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    To me, the plan, based on moves and reports is obvious. And I'm sorry I haven't had time to read everything or like or comment.

    The Twins cleared the books for Story. They would LOVE 4yrs, but they are smart enough to know it's not going to happen. So they are looking at him playing SS...reports had Story turning down an offer to change positions...and sign him for 5yrs at $20-22ish per and front load the contract to absorb cost while they can afford to do so. And they CAN afford to do so, even if the cost is "slightly" higher.

    Next, they are talking to the A's about a trade for Montas or Manaea. (You might substitute the Marlins in here for one of their pitchers). Such a trade will hurt, at least a little, but what they want/need is TBD. I could easily see Arraez, maybe Urshela as a short term option, and Larnach or Wallner, and at least one of the Twins best young arms. Considering the Bassit trade, Duran is clearly in play here. As might be a number of our top pitching prospects. But they also might be wanting to dump a contract as they have a few guys they may want to move on from. And the good news is the Twins have the finances to do so in 2022 and 2023, potentially. 

    So an A's trade might hurt, but the hurt may be mitigated a bit by prospects vs taking on salary for the A's. So it could end up being a 1 for 3 or 2 for 3 vs a 1 for 4. That works in the Twins favor. The point is, despite "hurt", said hurt might not decimate the system while bringing in another top arm.

    Still worried about a better option besides Sanchez at catcher, and want to use $ for a quality BP arm to make this staff really work, but I absolutely see what the FO is doing.

    Hope like hell they make it work.

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    3 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

    To me, the plan, based on moves and reports is obvious. And I'm sorry I haven't had time to read everything or like or comment.

    The Twins cleared the books for Story. They would LOVE 4yrs, but they are smart enough to know it's not going to happen. So they are looking at him playing SS...reports had Story turning down an offer to change positions...and sign him for 5yrs at $20-22ish per and front load the contract to absorb cost while they can afford to do so. And they CAN afford to do so, even if the cost is "slightly" higher.

    Next, they are talking to the A's about a trade for Montas or Manaea. (You might substitute the Marlins in here for one of their pitchers). Such a trade will hurt, at least a little, but what they want/need is TBD. I could easily see Arraez, maybe Urshela as a short term option, and Larnach or Wallner, and at least one of the Twins best young arms. Considering the Bassit trade, Duran is clearly in play here. As might be a number of our top pitching prospects. But they also might be wanting to dump a contract as they have a few guys they may want to move on from. And the good news is the Twins have the finances to do so in 2022 and 2023, potentially. 

    So an A's trade might hurt, but the hurt may be mitigated a bit by prospects vs taking on salary for the A's. So it could end up being a 1 for 3 or 2 for 3 vs a 1 for 4. That works in the Twins favor. The point is, despite "hurt", said hurt might not decimate the system while bringing in another top arm.

    Still worried about a better option besides Sanchez at catcher, and want to use $ for a quality BP arm to make this staff really work, but I absolutely see what the FO is doing.

    Hope like hell they make it work.

    If you think you can get Story for $22MM a year for 5 years, just offer him something like $35MM for one year.  He can get a longer contract next year when things have settled down.  Twins can use him at SS, even trade him in July if need be for prospects.  Gives us three months to assess Lewis and Martin, and gives the illusion that the front office really wanted to compete this year.

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    13 hours ago, miracleb said:

    H2O...your link says the Twin got Sonny Gray as well!
     

    Hopefully the Twins will use the savings on a free agent shortstop.

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/minnesota-twins

    that was a quote...... not my link. it was glunn's. But they did get Gray, who is not a stud in my opinion, just a fading filler that costs too much. But he is something. 

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    13 hours ago, JDubs said:

    It's almost as if there's a difference between the most physically demanding position in the game and a spot where you can park people who aren't that athletic

    Everyone wants an excuse, for sure. Except Yadi.

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    3 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

    I don't like his style of play. 

    What does this mean? I don't understand. Others have made some references to Donaldson's attitude, etc. There have been responses that called JD "cocky", which apply to virtually all decent performers.

    Do you know him personally? I don't but have watched him play so many times for Oakland, Toronto, Atlanta, and for the Twins. He is intense, plays great defense, is a good baserunner despite leg issues, rarely has a bad at bat, and was always one of the three best players on his team. It was also reported how much young players enjoyed learning from him. Josh Donaldson is a winner and if one wants to see their team win, then that is the style of player needed to do so.

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    4 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

    We will never know what we lost by signing him, but it was still a mistake, and not just because of his calf problems. I was not a fan of Donaldson before the Twins signed him. I don't like his style of play. 

     

    We lost nothing by signing him. It was the opposite of a mistake and should be repeated often.

     

    Personally, I wish they had about 10 Josh Donaldsons. They'd be world champions.

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    8 hours ago, USAFChief said:

    We lost nothing by signing him. It was the opposite of a mistake and should be repeated often.

     

    Personally, I wish they had about 10 Josh Donaldsons. They'd be world champions.

    Yes, your comments are all true. Which begs the question - do fans who oppose JD also oppose excellence and winning? Inconceivable. 

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