Arbitration: Who Stays, Who Goes?

Uh, trading away Span and Revere in the same offseason was pretty bold. The Twins don't need to do *anything* bold . . . except for finally roll out the youth movement. Rosario-Hicks-Arcia OF, Vargas DH, Pinto C/PH/DH, May in the rotation, Meyer initially in the bullpen, etc. Sano soonish. Even Buxton and Berrios eventually. Zach Jones and Nick Burdi for sure with a taste this year.

The Twins will keep Deunsing.  There's not a compelling reason to let him go.  He doesn't make too much.  Now if we had a 120million payroll and we were stretching for more then yes he would be cut or traded.  But I am certain he has enough value to keep around for 1 more year.  I wouldn't be surprised if we signed him to a 3 year 10-12 million extension either. 

Nunez is a keeper in that he can play everywhere and should be able to steal 10-20 bases.  It all depends on what the Twins decide they want on the bench and I would do that in spring training and not now as we can cut him in spring and pay a 1/4 of the contract or something like that. 

Fien, Plouffe, and Schaefer are keepers.  Though an argument could be made to let Schaeffer walk, I think they keep him cause he can play CF. 

Millone is the one I am concerned about keeping or not.  I don't think he has the best talent or enough ability to necessarily stay in the majors and 2.5 million is getting a little high to make that type of decision. Only because we are under budget would I consider giving him a chance

  On 12/1/2014 at 7:12 PM, Kirby_waved_at_me said:

I'd be happy if they did even half that - a 2015 debut for Sano, May in the Rotation starting opening day, Rosario and Burdi sometime in 2015. To me that would be a lot (given the track record).

 

In retrospect, May, Santana, Vargas, and Polanco all getting major league service time in 2014 was a pretty good step.  

I want that all as well along with hoping Buxton makes his debut but definitely want Meyer to get his shot as well even if he starts in the pen.

  On 12/1/2014 at 6:32 PM, jaimedude2 said:

To me, they have guys like Milone in the organization, If I were the Twins I would try to make a last ditch effor to unload Milone via trade.  

 

Fair enough.   Name one other guy in the system that has as many as 83 starts in the AL with a sub 4.00 ERA..    Just basing quality on mph is pretty shortsighted.   I'm not even saying Milone is great because I don't know but easy to check the stats to find that his career ERA so far in 83 starts is much better than the career major league ERA of any pitcher on the team including Hughes and Nolasco.

  On 12/1/2014 at 5:42 PM, kellyvance said:

Milone can't break a pane of glass with his fastball, so who cares if he has options?We need BETTER pitchers, not more of the same guys with 87 MPH fastballs. The guy is no Jamie Moyer. Duenslinger is on the bubble, but he is a better choice than Milone. Bye to Cola and Parm. 

 

I think we need to bring up the kids an let them play.

Again, you may be right but how can you be so certain?   Moyer's career ERA is 4.25 while Milone's is 3.98.   I don't think I undervalue arm strength because I do value it.   I just think most people overvalue  it.    San Fran is generally middle of the pack in velocity of fastballs and they throw them less than anyone.   They also ranked in the lower half in strikeouts.     Control and stuff (changing speeds, assortment and movement)  count for just as much especially in a starting pitcher.  All 87 mph pitchers are definitely not created equal. 

Milone may "currently" slot in as our 6th or 7th starter but I don't see 5 Cy Young candidates slotted ahead of him and things change fast.  Keep.

  On 12/1/2014 at 8:01 PM, jokin said:

1) I'm still confounded that Ryan doesn't grasp this basic concept after 20-some years.

 

2) The general trend in baseball is getting your best pitchers and their live arms up to the majors and established before age 25 (the reasonable gamble being not wasting their best finite innings and years while they are in their 20s and before their arms possibly blow out). 

I agree with your position but aside from Meyer I really can't recall any pitcher that has been held back.     Garza was certainly promoted quickly and I believe that Liriano was as well.    May likely would have been promoted earlier if not for the injury to his leg.    Leaves us with Meyer.    I think you and I disagreed with who was promoted ahead of Meyer but I certainly agreed that he should have been promoted at some point.   Still, he is really the only case I can think of.    

Torn on Duensing and Milone. Personally, I don't feel either has a very long tenure left with the team. There are youngsters on the rise that are near ready, could be ready really soon, or should/could be ready by season's end. But in the current state of roster affairs, I could easily see both with the club for the time being.

First, neither is really very expensive. I think both have a shot at the pen in 2015, though Milone has at least a limited shot at the rotation. Duensing is not old and is healthy and has a decent track record overall. He's a strong candidate for a bounce back season.

But I could also see either, or both, allowed to leave or be traded. (trading seems more logical and obvious to me) I even wonder if St Louis could be interested in either as part of a trade as they have dealt away a couple pitchers already this offseason.

Unless either of them really shines this season, my hunch is both of them, either or both depending how the rest of the offseason shakes out, is gone by 2016 regardless. Darnell, O'Rourke, Gilmartin and Rogers are just a couple youngsters that could be ready soon for a spot somewhere on the roster to join Thielbar. In fact, I'm not so sure Darnell isn't ready right now for a bullpen spot!

My best guess at the end of the day, I believe both are offered and retained. That doesn't mean both are kept!

PS, why all the hate for Nunez?

OK, so he's only so-so with the glove, but he's no butcher. He can hit a little, he has some pop, he can run, and he offers some positional flexibility. Isn't that what you want in a utility or second utility player on the roster?

I don't think he's long term for the club, Beresford, Michael and Polanco could and should all push him at some point this season or the end of this season. But for the now, I'd hold on to him. In the context of professional sports, he's not going to cost you much of anything to bring in and have around. He might even surprise a little. There is enough potential available to do so.

The Yankees let Nunez go because he can't play 2B. They kept Anna and Solarte instead. In the few games Dozier missed, they moved Escobar over instead of using Nunez at 2B. He is more 3B/LF/emergency SS than true utility.

I wouldn't mind if they sign him though. A trade of a Plouffe may open a temporary role. The salary might keep others from claiming when DFA'd and he can be stashed in Rochester.

Nunez is basically only a backup 3B. There is so little value there.

Duensing making 2+ million bucks more than his replacement does actually matter to the Twins. A few million dollars a year means a different tier of free agent signing! I don't understand any defense for keeping Duensing around. He isn't even very good in the first place. Starting Darnell in Rochester is almost completely useless. First, they have plenty of starting pitchers between AA and AAA. Also, he isn't going to be a starter. His role is to try to survive as a LOOGY or long relief guy. That said, the potential upside is higher than whatever Duensing is right now. And it's for 1/5 or 1/6 the cost!

Inherited runners scored

Anthony Swarzak P MIN 16
Brian Duensing P MIN 13
Michael Tonkin P MIN 6
Runners stranded

Brian Duensing P MIN 28

Anthony Swarzak P MIN 19
Michael Tonkin P MIN 16

Runs allowed

Anthony Swarzak P MIN 48
Brian Duensing P MIN 20
Michael Tonkin P MIN 13
 

Why Swarzak is looking for employment, Tonkin went to the minors and Duensing should be nervous

I don't understand why some disregard Milone so easily.  I ran the stats for 2012-2013.  There is very little difference in their numbers over that period between Nolasco, Masterson, Buehrle, and Milone.  Of course, the others pitched more innings.  He must at least have trade value but why would we let him go at this point.  Give him a chance to establish some value at the same time we see what we have in May, Meyer, and eventually Berrios.  You would have to believe we would be in pretty decent shape if he is our #5 starter.

Milone also pitched in a very friendly park.

I would rather take a chance on Medlen or Beachy from the Braves.