A Refreshing Shift in Twins Territory

I agree. The rotation is in pretty good shape. Maybe a solid #2/#3 guy would be ideal to allow Odo and Pineda to occupy 4/5.

Corbin, Eovaldi, Keuchel, & Richards come to mind. They are all Free Agents-to-be. 

The real concern needs to be relief pitchers. I think it is sufficient to say they need help in the pen, and LOTS of it.

Thank you, Ted.

Wow is this optimism over the top.  Pineda, who the hell knows what he will bring.  This is not a former Cy Young pitcher.  He has been injured then injured again.  Do you think that the Yankees wanted to keep him?  Odorizzi has really risen to the top versus the Tigers and Royals!  Sorry the old SSS comes in to play when we look at his top efforts.  I want him to succeed, but lets see.  I take Berrios and Romero and then I have my fingers crossed.

Stewart had a great game against the Tigers.  Gonsalves had a great game against - you guessed it the Tigers.  Lets see this against the Yankees, Red Sox, Astros, Indians. 

Am I bitter, damn right, this team has under performed by every measure and what we see in September does not mean a damn thing.   Will I get censored for Damn? 

The lineup has a lot of guys who would be great in the 7/8/9 slots but guess what there are six more to fill.  Put in Polanco and Rosario and Cave and then what?  This is not refreshing.  We are ninth in the AL and the teams below us have chosen to Tank. 

Tell me Kiriloff and Lewis are ready, that Gratol is going to make the jump.  Then I get excited.  Otherwise we are fooling ourselves and the Twins love it.

In 2018, the pitchers have benefited from having three historically awful teams in the division. Nearly 60 starts against lineups that were barely better than AAA. Those lineups will be getting better. The staff lacks a true #1. While Berrios may take that step in 2019, he didn’t in 2018...and I wouldn’t mind at all the FO going aggressively for whatever #1 types (or #1-ish) might be available in the off-season.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tell me Kiriloff and Lewis are ready, that Gratol is going to make the jump.  Then I get excited.  

Kiriloff and Lewis are ready.  Gatorade is going to make the jump. It's time for you to get excited.

In theory, I agree with you Ted. Despite a strong finish from Odorozzi...possibly having something to to with his sudden fondness for pitching from the stretch...this season and history really seems to mark him as a 5th SP on a good staff. And that's fine.

Pineda not getting a chance to finish the year in the bigs clouds his opportunity somewhat for 2019. But milb or not, he seemed to be healthy and throwing pretty well during his rehab.

To me, Romero is a key. In a year or so, he could surpass Berrios even in the rotation.

I still wonder about a quality addition. If it happens, I could see Pineda or Odorizzi becoming an excellent bullpen piece.

"Any arm brought in should be at the quality of Gibson and Odorizzi or better."

You mean like Lance Lynn?

What would be the ERA's of the starters if you adjusted the earned runs by subtracting all of the inherited runners that were allowed to score by our relief corps? Hence, the real problem, which is actually two fold. The starters are throwing too many pitches and not getting deep enough into games. This puts more pressure on the bullpen on a night after night after night basis. Instead of just having to cover innings 8 & 9, the bullpen is having to cover innings 6, 7, 8, 9. In some cases the bullpen is used in inning #5. Not only were the 2018 veteran additions to the bullpen an absolute failure; once the team moved on from that and started to use some of the "kids" they were found to be either mentally or ability unable to step up. The biggest problem seems to be between their ears. Either that, or (as in the case with Alex Pressly) the Manager, Pitching Coach, Bullpen Coach and assorted catchers have no clue as to how to properly utilize their bullpen resources.

There will always be some reason for optimism. The people who want it will embrace what can go right. There is the other side of the coin.

What would be the ERA's of the starters if you adjusted the earned runs by subtracting all of the inherited runners that were allowed to score by our relief corps? Hence, the real problem, which is actually two fold. The starters are throwing too many pitches and not getting deep enough into games. This puts more pressure on the bullpen on a night after night after night basis. Instead of just having to cover innings 8 & 9, the bullpen is having to cover innings 6, 7, 8, 9. In some cases the bullpen is used in inning #5. Not only were the 2018 veteran additions to the bullpen an absolute failure; once the team moved on from that and started to use some of the "kids" they were found to be either mentally or ability unable to step up. The biggest problem seems to be between their ears. Either that, or (as in the case with Alex Pressly) the Manager, Pitching Coach, Bullpen Coach and assorted catchers have no clue as to how to properly utilize their bullpen resources.

Good presentation of where the starting staff is at, Ted, thanks.

I have thought for some time that the FO doesn't need to do anything to the starting staff this winter.  But, will they?  Certainly don't need to go out and get any retread starter or another Lance Lynn.  Could see them roll the dice on a AAAA guy, hoping to catch another Kluber.  Also could see them upgrading Odorizzi with a trade including him, one of the seven potential young starters not named Romero, and another lower level prospect...perhaps one of the players obtained in July.

Maybe the biggest news we could hear this winter is signing Gibson and Berrios to extensions...get this done.

But as pointed out above, to improve in 2019 the bullpen has to get better.  And all indications are the guys we all have wanted to see from Rochester aren't the answer, at least for 2019.

My 2019 Hot Take: Lewis Thorpe will surprise next year. He'll be up around mid-season and stick.

when I looked at the site someone had posted the Twins had given up something like 24 inherited runners. Not good, but not so much as to change starter era significantly

I would also add that not having Buxton in center for much of the season does make a difference on pitcher's ERA as well.  For reference, Buxton played 140 games last season, but only 28 this season.  I know our other players are good, but sometimes Buxton makes a play nobody else does.

Wow is this optimism over the top. Pineda, who the hell knows what he will bring. This is not a former Cy Young pitcher. He has been injured then injured again. Do you think that the Yankees wanted to keep him? Odorizzi has really risen to the top versus the Tigers and Royals! Sorry the old SSS comes in to play when we look at his top efforts. I want him to succeed, but lets see.

 

 

Odorizzi took a shut out into the 8th against the Yanks I think.

In general, every team should be trying to improve every area over the winter. Standing still is how you get passed.

 

In the case of the Twins, I don't agree the Twins "have the bump covered." None of Stewart/Gonsalves/Littell should be counted on for a single productive MLB inning. Same for Pineda. They'll all likely get a chance to prove themselves, because a team doesn't just use 5 starters, but they should all be fallback options, not primary ones. I hope the Twins are looking to add, at the TOP of the rotation, at least one starter. 

I think by "covered" Ted is suggesting that for the first time in a long while we don't have the same kinds of desperate needs to sign a starter. There's a legitimate possibility that the twins could cover their starting pitching through internal assets, which is something that would have been ridiculous to state as recently as a year ago.

I'm sure the Twins will explore adding another starter, and almost certainly one that would fit closer to the top than the bottom. But part of the point here is we don't have a team that absolutely needs to sign a back of the rotation guy just to be able to fill out the staff. That's a good thing and a real improvement.

I'm not in the "we need an ace or it's all a bust!" mode that some Twins fans seem to be in. I'd be happy to add a guy who falls into the category of "better than Kyle Gibson" if we can't sign one of the upper-upper-echelon guys; there has to be a realization that there are very few of those and betting the house on landing one isn't much of a strategy.

Ok, the Twins are middle of the pack in strikeouts which is an improvement but they are 23rd in ERA.     I know a lot of fans and advanced stats people love strikeouts.   I like them but I HATE walks and judging by the games I watched and my review of MLB on games I missed every guy the Twins walked ended up scoring.     Ok, big hyperbole there but middle of the pack in strikeouts and toward the bottom in run prevention is not a good trade off for me and I consider a main culprit to be that we are near the top in walks allowed.    We are third in the AL behind Whites Sox and the Orioles.   I don't think it is coincidence that those are two of the few teams that have a worse ERA and it is not the kind of company I would like to keep.  Seriously, it seemed like walks were involved in nearly all the key rallies by the other team during the season.    I was never a critic of the theory of pitch to contact just a critic of the Twins execution.    I am not a critic of the miss the bat theory but I think the Twins are doing a poor job of that also.  They are missing bats enough but missing the zone way too much.

I'm optimistic about these guys, but if they all do well the Twins are still missing a bona fide ace.

If the Twins want to win a playoff game against the Yankees, Red Sox, or Astros, they will need an ace, and I consider the "win one playoff game" bar to be very low. Any other move, in absence of a move that acquires an ace, is pointless.

If the Twins pick up an outside pitcher, it needs to be Gibson level or better, as stated earlier. The team has enough guys capable of producing at a level below that.

On the free agent market, there are quite a few names: Corbin, Keuchel, Happ, Morton and maybe even Eovaldi could be reasonable.

The trade route seems like a better bet. We have a farm system a team going into rebuild mode would love. Those teams are usually going for volume these days in trades.

If the Mariners go into rebuild mode, Gonzalez might be on the table, as well as Leake on a two year contract and for very reasonable package of prospects. Plus, DiPoto seems pretty easy to trade with.

If the Pirates do the same, Taillon or Musgrove may be made available.

And of course, the Mets should go rebuild and offering a package for any one of their three studs would be expensive, but every competitive team in the league will be at their door. Unless we trade away one of our top three prospects (which we shouldn't), I don't think they pick us.

The problem with working so hard to "stay positive" is that in the process one can stray too far from reality.

when I looked at the site someone had posted the Twins had given up something like 24 inherited runners. Not good, but not so much as to change starter era significantly

Of course, not all of those are inherited from starters. Many no doubt carry from one reliever to another.

A lot of things went wrong this year. A lot of things went right last year. If things go somewhere comfortably in between next year, we're probably above .500 and at least have a shot.

Because this should be the team’s goal?

In 2019 or ever?

IMO, if the best they can do is “probably” be above .500 and have a shot, I’d rather sell Rosario, Gibson and Odorizzi and go full rebuild.

I’ve said this before, but IMO the only way this core of players contends for a title is if Sano and Buxton are 5-6 bWAR players and they either acquire or develop a legitimate ace starting pitcher.

Of course, not all of those are inherited from starters. Many no doubt carry from one reliever to another.

Because this should be the team’s goal?

In 2019 or ever?

IMO, if the best they can do is “probably” be above .500 and have a shot, I’d rather sell Rosario, Gibson and Odorizzi and go full rebuild.

I’ve said this before, but IMO the only way this core of players contends for a title is if Sano and Buxton are 5-6 bWAR players and they either acquire or develop a legitimate ace starting pitcher.