Revisiting the 60 Day IL

Smeltzer's life story is a great one. But in spite of that I don't see how he should outrank younger rising talent. I think he has pretty much peaked. I'm much more willing to let him try to continue his career elsewhere than to risk losing a prospect who is still improving.

I agree on Smeltzer,  Dobnak will be given the leash because of his contract and the Twins may need starters next year.  Rest I am ok with. 

I will be cheering for Smeltzer wherever he continues his career, such a good story, agree that it may be time to move on.   I thought Garlick might stick early in the season until Refsnyder came on the scene.  We have so many corner outfielders.

I am uncertain about Dobnak’s status if DFA’d.

Would it be more likely that he passes through because of the contract? Wouldn’t a team claiming him have to pick up the contract?

I am not so sure his contract is a reason he stays on the 40. 

Smeltzer is the toughest question in this group. He's a useful pitcher...but with limited upside. If the Twins are really crunched on the 40-man with better prospects, someone like him could get left out in the cold. I have no doubt that he'll get a shot at a major league roster from another team in a heartbeat, which is where it gets painful. But I don't think he's got a lot of value in a trade either (he's a throw-in in a bigger deal, maybe). That seems harsh for a guy who has had some success in MLB, but his ceiling looks like 5th starter/long man.

I had higher hopes for Stashak as an impact reliever, but he's looking like a fungible guy and proof positive for why you have to be careful in where you put your money on the relief corps. A lot of these guys are going to be good one year and not much the next. He's probably not as bad as this year's numbers suggest, but also probably not as good as he was in 2020. The K's are great, but he's also a bit too hittable, so if his control slips (for whatever reason), then the WHIP is unsustainable. But he could have a nice bounceback year and be a decent middle relief option next year, which I'm sure will cause people to call for Falvine's collective heads if he goes elsewhere. He's another guy who the team will have to balance his potential utility against his lesser upside in evaluating him for a 40-man spot against a prospect with a higher ceiling.

It is all about depth and where the guys now fall in the pecking order.

Colina has age on his side, but will be spending his third year on the 40-man and, assuming he is healed by spring training, more than likely starting in the minors.

The team has to look closely if they will be adding Enlow to the 40-man, who will also be spending a year in rehab. Ad you have Duran, who we hoped would be getting a major league tryout this season (along with Balazovic). That would suddenly be four names that you can't count being in the majors to start the season, and you play wait-and-see where they progress during 2022.

Stashak is also the same. You can cut him and maybe resign him, but if no one claims him for their own 40-man, I believe he is a free agent. But a 40-man spot is valuable, unless you are arguing keeping him or any of the over 30-arms of Albers, Farrell, Thielbar, Minaya. All of whom could probably also be resigned to minor league contracts if they don't take services elsewhere.

I believe Smeltzer may have an option year left with the Twins and they would keep him if no one else claimed him. Remember that all teams are dealing with the same dilemma as the Twins, which is why guys like a Smeltzer isn't waived until the last minute when all teams are adding their Rule 5 saves. I think the Twins could get Smeltzer thru waivers. 

The Twins can also move Dobnak off the 40-man. They still control him, they just have to pay him. Shades of Nick Blackburn and Joe Mays. If another team would claim him, the salary would be theirs to keep. The Twins could let him start the season at AAA without having him on the roster, and see where he goes from there.

Garlick is so far behind the pecking order, once Buxton returns. Remember, he beat out the now released Broxton, Refsnyder, Larnach and Kirilloff for a spot on the major league roster. Celestino is now also ahead of him. Cave is still in the picture (although he ahs probably priced himself out of an arbitration backup job). And the Twins have Kerrigan and Contreras both performing well in St. Paul, neither of whom would probably be taken in the Rule 5.

Do you take the chance someone will grab Colina? Remember, you always need a couple of names on the roster who can be jettisoned if you sign a free agent, and at that time it is often easier to get them thru waivers and late enough that the only alternative for the player is to sign and stay with their team.

Be interesting to see how the Twins treat their roster of pitchers like Thorpe, Jax, Thielbar, Stashak, Farrell, Law, Minaya, Coulombe, Albers, Garcia, Garza, Gant, Barraclough, not to mention Hamilton. I would look at each case as a competing general manager looking to improve my club and if any of those names were available, would I leap, run, be joyful adding them to my own 40-man roster at the expense of...whom.

Kirilloff, Dobnak and Colina stay.  The other three are likely headed out.  Maybe there is a chance that enough spots will open up and one is kept around, either till spring training or to be included as an extra part of some trade this winter.

Unfortunately, there won't be any opportunities to move them in a trade as everyone is looking to get rid of marginal players...not add.

I think Kirilloff and Dobnak are pretty safe adds.  I know Dobnak had a tough year this year but he showed signs early that he might have potential to be a number 4 starter.  He was starting to K guys and he is a groundball pitcher. The Twins believed in his stuff enough to give him an early contract.  Now would not be the time to completely give up on Randy.

Colina is hard throwing pitcher with a plus slider and the Twins currently lack velocity in their bullpen arms so it would be hard to let him go and one of the bottom teams would surely pick him up if the Twins dropped him.  He likely stays unless the Twins feel his arm will never be the same.

Smeltzer is the tough one.  I don't love the idea of giving up on him without giving him one more shot but from what I have seen his ceiling appears low.  He is a lefty though and we don't have many of those and he could be good out of the pen as well so I don't know I guess it depends on who else we have to expose before I could decide.

What Stashak can do seems to be easily replaceable.  Would I like to keep him yes I would but their seems to be a fair number of pitchers coming up that will have higher ceiling's so if he needed to be sacrificed I could see it happening.

Garlick has a nice bat and can play left field OK.  He is a beast against lefties and would be good in a platoon but there is a reason he has been on the fringes of the 40 man for most teams and that is he doesn't look like a guy that hold down a spot on a regular basis and looks more like a situational bat.  I could be wrong but he is also about to turn 30 and left fielders are not that hard to find.  Refsnyder looks more versatile and I think his bat plays against lefties and righties as well.  I don't see Garlick coming back unless it is on a minors deal. 

Kirilloff and Edwar Colina. Everyone else has been lapped by the field in the minors, particularly Dobnak and Smeltzer. Twins bet on Dobnak with a new slider would improve him further and it was a disaster. Good luck, but next man up. Pruning this list helps avoid the next Baddoo situation. 

It shouldn't be that difficult parsing and purging players from this woe begotten roster. 

Don't even have to comment about AK. 

Dobnak is a very easy choice and not because he has some committed $. He's still a relatively young and inexperienced SP still learning. We've seen glimpses of what he can do when healthy. You don't walk away from that.

Same with Colina. Healthy, there's a good chance he's up with the Twins for about half this year with Alcala, honing his stuff and gaining experience. 

Smeltzer MIGHT be kept as he's LH and has looked solid at times. Agree his ceiling is a 5th SP and is probably a useful BP piece. I'm going to root for the guy whatever happens. But I think a numbers crunch will leave him off the 40 man. I'd like to see him back on a milb deal.

I'd also like Stashak to remain in the organization on a milb deal. He's shown real promise, even in SSS, but I don't think there's enough there to warrant a 40 man spot at this point. 

Garlick just isn't a fit at this point. Rooker is younger and has more potential. Celestino is better than both, but a different type of talent. And I think it's time we just admit that Refsnyder, a former decent prospect, really has re-invented himself as at least a decent bat with solid OF play.

6 hours ago, Dman said:

Garlick has a nice bat and can play left field OK.  He is a beast against lefties and would be good in a platoon...

 

Rooker and Garlick are similar players, but Rooker is younger and better. Why would we want or need to keep Garlick?

2 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

Rooker and Garlick are similar players, but Rooker is younger and better. Why would we want or need to keep Garlick?

I don't think I said we should, I just noted Garlics positives.  I like Refsnyder better than Garlic and there is no guarantee Rob stays on the 40 man either.  I still am backing Rooker to a degree (he needs to be better at the plate) but keep in mind both Refsnyder and Garlic have performed better than Roooker at the MLB level to this point.

4 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Don't even have to comment about AK. 

Dobnak is a very easy choice and not because he has some committed $. He's still a relatively young and inexperienced SP still learning. We've seen glimpses of what he can do when healthy. You don't walk away from that.

Same with Colina. Healthy, there's a good chance he's up with the Twins for about half this year with Alcala, honing his stuff and gaining experience. 

Smeltzer MIGHT be kept as he's LH and has looked solid at times. Agree his ceiling is a 5th SP and is probably a useful BP piece. I'm going to root for the guy whatever happens. But I think a numbers crunch will leave him off the 40 man. I'd like to see him back on a milb deal.

I'd also like Stashak to remain in the organization on a milb deal. He's shown real promise, even in SSS, but I don't think there's enough there to warrant a 40 man spot at this point. 

Garlick just isn't a fit at this point. Rooker is younger and has more potential. Celestino is better than both, but a different type of talent. And I think it's time we just admit that Refsnyder, a former decent prospect, really has re-invented himself as at least a decent bat with solid OF play.

 

I like quite a few of our minor leaguers even guys like Mark Contreras and Jimmy Kerrigan, Jermaine Palacios, Trey Cabbage, Moran, of course Miranda, Joe Ryan and more. Honestly, as far as people I’m sure can help the Twins in the future, only Alex Kirilloff is definitely worth keeping.

Honestly IMO,  it’s a no-brained to DFA Dobnak. If someone wants his contract, fine…if not, he’s filler at AAA…the contract is nothing. If the prospects (and literally any FA) aren’t at least immediately as good (bad) as Dobnak, you’ve got bigger issues. I guess maybe they think he can be a useful bullpen arm. I don’t…unless you consider the guy who comes in and eats innings in blowouts ‘useful’. Keeping guys like this around simply because you gave them a contract, a small one at that, is exactly how losing organizations stay losing organizations.

I don’t think you have both Rooker and Garlick on the 40- man, at least in 2022 (unless you move Sano, I suppose). That makes it tough to keep Garlick, even though he’s outperformed Rooker to this point.

In general, I’m not high on 5-11 pitchers with any history of arm issues. But I suppose desperation warrants that you give Colina a chance.

9 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

Dobnak probably plays better when put on a team that treats him like a human being.  He proved himself to be competent in the preseason, then they have in pitch in the 8th and the 9th, roles he has never done and is not suited for, and then tossed him aside.  Dobnak will probably be back, but mostly because, as you say, at the moment he has been backed into a spot where he has no other options.

I always thought the Shoemaker signing was a joke, but I believe him when he said the Twins tried to make him be someone he wasn't.  He wasn't around too long after he spoke up about that. 

On the topic of treating people like cattle, the Twins recently publicly aired their grievances with Buxton's contract.  This should help the "roster crunch" I suppose.

During the 1991 reunion tour last week, the old timers were all pushing a consistent message -- unity.  Unity with the front office, with management, with the players.  I think they talked about this for a reason, and note the difference the way the Twins played while the old team was around.

 

Not sure how I’m supposed to feel sorry for Dobnak. He was awful as a starter this year almost immediately. I’d venture a guess that he was happy to have an opportunity to move to the pen…not to mention very happy with the contract that the Twins gave him…and absolutely 100% didn’t have to or need to give him. To be fair to him, he’s still just 26 years old…so, there’s still a chance, I guess.

And while the old-timers were around, they watched the Twins take 2 of 3 against the best team in the AL.

1 minute ago, Dodecahedron said:

Dobnak started the year in the bullpen after having a nice preseason as a starter.  If the Twins wanted him to be a set up guy or in the closer rotation, they should have worked on that at the proper time. 

Yes, I agree the old-timers being in the clubhouse made the Twins play with more fire.

Dobnak started 5 games…and the numbers speak for themselves. And nobody proves their worth in spring training facing lineups peppered with minor leaguers. Nobody. I agree that he was serviceable in previous years, though, so maybe there’s hope. I’m not optimistic.

Great article. In regards to Smeltzer, just because we don't protect him doesn't mean someone else is going to take him in the Rule 5. I view him as a AAAA player, but if he is not taken in Rule 5, then he gets another look in Spring training. 

Dobnak lost his magic when the tacky issue appeared. 

I think He and Smeltzer don't have enough to offer. Let them walk. Hope our young guys have higher ceilings and make more impact.

Improve.

I do not protect Garlic, Stashak or Smeltzer. Colina is shorter but a bull. He has upside. The other one I'm on the fence with is Dobber. Skeptically that he hasn't turned into a pumpkin. He didn't finish that great last year and more of the same this year. He was jacked around a little. 

Low ceiling guys, Smeltzer, Stashak and ALBERS have no place on the 40 man.

I keep AK and the rest can walk. They bring nothing extra to the table that you can't find elsewhere. Others on the 40 man that will be gone or are expendable: Albers, Barnes, Barraclough, Colome, Coulombe, Duffey, Farrell, Gant, Garcia, Law, Minaya, Thorpe, Simmons, and Cave, That's 19 spots. Move on, move up, not sideways.

Releasing Stashak has Matt Wisler, Zack Littel, and to a lesser extent, Nick Anderson, regret potential written all over it. 

He's at the top of the list of guys you keep if the decision comes to dropping fungible relievers vs guys like Albers, Colome, Minaya, Barraclough, Albers, Farrell, Law, Garza, and maybe even Gant or Garcia.

That's 8 easy decisions before you get to Stashak. Will that be enough to protect him?

20 hours ago, rv78 said:

I keep AK and the rest can walk. They bring nothing extra to the table that you can't find elsewhere. Others on the 40 man that will be gone or are expendable: Albers, Barnes, Barraclough, Colome, Coulombe, Duffey, Farrell, Gant, Garcia, Law, Minaya, Thorpe, Simmons, and Cave, That's 19 spots. Move on, move up, not sideways.

I appreciate the aggressiveness, but look at how FA RPs fair. You're no better off, statistically speaking, filling the bullpen with $2 - $6 million FA signings than keeping guys like Gant, Stashak and others that have a decent floor and could unlock something. 

You can then reallocate that money you'd have to spend to fill the BP with FA signings that have a higher level of predictability and put a team on the field that is likely to win more ballgames then spending on the BP.