3 Twins Roster Battles Entering Spring Training

The corners is what has to be decided. Kepler, Larnach and Kirilloff for corner outfield/1b. Gallo would be a given.

I agree with your starting rotation battle Cody.  I also agree that baring any last minute trades or pick ups for a RH bat, they have to have Garlic on the bench to address the need against LH pitching.

As for the BP battle, having the options available does provide flexibility for STP-MLPS shifting.  I still would like them to bring in one more RP as we could be exposed while waiting for one of the starting prospects to be competent in the BP role.

Barring any injuries in Spring Training, the Opening Day roster is pretty locked-in. The only changes could come from a Bullpen move, whether that's signing someone like Matt Moore or keeping someone like Henriquez or Ober over Megill. 

The only possible position-player spot up for grabs is Trevor Larnach's, who could land in AAA to start the year if Julien or Martin look fantastic in Spring Training. 

I think the key battle is the corner OF position and whether we keep all of Gallo, Kepler, Larnach, and Gordon. While there are a number of options, I'd like to see them trade Kepler and make LF a Gordon/Larnach/Farmer platoon. That opens up the DH spot for a number of players while still giving Larnach and Gordon 400-500 ABs apiece. It also opens up a spot for a RH hitting 1B/OF or a utility IF like Willi Castro. It is a little risky if we have a lot of injuries again but on balance I think we need to play Larnach and Gordon regularly and I just don't se how to do that if we keep Kepler on the roster.

I would also like to se us pick up a LH bullpen piece, hopefully Chafin or Moore, after Lewis and Paddack go on the 60 day IL. Megill can then go to AAA as the closer. I could also see them keeping Henriquez or Sands as a long man with Alcala to AAA so he get his rhythm back after the layoff.  

The Starting pitchers should stay starting in AAA for depth for the season. Both Ober and Winder should be starting in AAA every 5th day so they are ready to come up start when necessary. I expect there to be at least 15-25 MLB starts available outside of the presumed starting 5 due to injuries and ineffectiveness issues so we will need these guys, plus Varland,  SWR, and eventually Paddack.  

2 hours ago, GKuehl said:

Barring any injuries in Spring Training, the Opening Day roster is pretty locked-in. The only changes could come from a Bullpen move, whether that's signing someone like Matt Moore or keeping someone like Henriquez or Ober over Megill. 

The only possible position-player spot up for grabs is Trevor Larnach's, who could land in AAA to start the year if Julien or Martin look fantastic in Spring Training. 

Wallner would be the other player who could push in, but less likely given he is also a left-handed corner outfielder.

The acquisition of Taylor keeps both Celestino and Garlick off of a healthy roster, IMO

It’s all good. Competition, not a double-vested suit, makes the man. Kepler looks good in a double-vest but not at the plate. It’s put up or shut up time for the vax denier. He’s worth more in a trade if he shows he can hit again, so I don’t see him going anywhere until he struts to the box and gets on base at a clip that makes us stop and look. If he does that, though, why trade him?

It seems like it has been a while that the Twins have headed into ST with so few questions about their roster.  Barring injuries or health concerns, there really is very little wiggle room on the roster.

It’s going to be interesting to see what role meada will play this year. Bullpen or starter? 

I don't put much stock in opening day rosters, since they'll already be moving players in the first week.

But having 3 relievers with options left leaves them some nice room to maneuver. I'm probably wrong, but I don't think they had that wiggle room much of last year.

Please not Garlick.

Your bullpen is super heavy on arms tossing mostly one (maybe two) innings. Winder is flat out better than Megill, and he can go three to five twice a week with no sweat while letting Ober stay stretched out in the minors. I'd also be surprised if Moran sticks in the majors most of the year. He is totally a whiff three one inning/walk four the next. (I'm glad we have options this year.)

I absolutely hate leaving Ober out of the rotation, but crunches happen when you have talent and depth. I like him better at St Paul, stretched out, and ready to go when needed. Over a full season, there's going to be ample room for that 6th arm.

Isn't Kirilloff the biggest linchpin to the roster? Even allowing his wrist feeling nearly 100%, only adapting to general soreness in his recovery, it's still possible a month at AAA to get ramped up and fully confident might not be out of line. IF that happens, who fills that final spot? I don't see need for a third catcher, and Celestino not only needs the AAA time to work on his game/confidence/approach, but his defense isn't needed at the moment. Does that mean an early promotion for Julien? Does Garlick get added back to the 40 man to face LH? I'd say just 1 spot to be resolved, and hoping it won't matter as AK will be ready to go. 

Somewhat unfortunately, Pagan is a given since he was kept. I don't believe he has a long leash, however. Here's hoping the FO bites the bullet if we continue to see the same old Pagan that he's been for more than a couple years now. But I could see a move to include Coulombe in the pen when a roster spot opens. While I believe the Twins see Winder as a SP option still, they placed him in the pen for 2022 to give them that long man. Could they do so again? Maybe Sands begining to make a conversion? Betting they will keep Henriquez as a SP at AAA to begin the season to just keep working on his stuff. If they don't still add an arm, I could see someone like Megill at St Paul and keep Winder, or similar, to be that long/middle man.

But it sure is nice to realize there are more options than questions as we begin ST.

Many notes:

- Chafin signed this week, so he won't come here. More broadly, Falvey has said we've not looking for more arms in the pen until we sort what we have. There are a lot of guys who are very close to blowing this league up. Duran was the real deal all year, but closer Lopez put up a great half year, the new Lopez held it together for a year, Mahle was ready to shake off his old home park, and there are a million young strong arms behind them. The pen should be good.

- Our 40 man is very full and we're not going to do anything until we get some guys moved to the 60 day DL. But even then I'm not sure we'll do much until we see how all the injured come back from their winter work.

- And speaking of the returning injured: Mahle, Maeda, Lopez, Kirilloff, Larnach, Buxton, Correa, Polanco are all out to prove their health after last year. And they have to be followed by Lewis and Paddack when they are ready.  

- As if that isn't enough uncertainty we have to sort the kids and see who is ready and where they can play. There's an army coming and spring training may just be about measuring what to expect by June 15.

The only position battles are 1b, lf and dh and the same guys are jostling for the spots. We might not see a set lineup just to fit most of them in on a semi-regular basis. 

So Gordon occupies our last position player bench slot. Please….

Once again, would you trade away Gordon straight up for any of Kepler, Gallo or Taylor? Honestly, of those four players, who projects to bring the most value to the Twins over the next several years? It’s not even close.

Last season when the Twins started to swoon with Buxton out and Kepler anemic at the plate (and Gallo striking out 160+ times and hitting 0.160 - good grief),  it was Gordon that supplied much of the spark to this team. At the moment, based on most recent actual performance, Gordon is our second best all around outfielder.

So, are we going to DFA him so we can bring back Garlick while keeping Kepler, Gallo and Taylor? That’s utterly ridiculous. Unless Gordon has an epically horrendous spring, there’s not a snowball’s chance in Hades of that happening unless our FO is even more idiotic than some TDers think. 

If Ober is healthy throughout Spring training, he will be in the 5-man rotation.  Likewise with Moran.

51 minutes ago, miracleb said:

If Ober is healthy throughout Spring training, he will be in the 5-man rotation.  Likewise with Moran.

I don't know whether I agree, but I like this bold, optimistic take.

Position players are set in my opinion, unless there is an injury.  The rule allows for 13 pitchers, assuming we carry 13, that leaves 13 position players.  The 2 catcher, Mirands, CC, Polanco, Kirilloff starting in infield with Farmer on bench, that is 7.  Then Buck, Kepler, Gallo, Larnach, Taylor, Gordon rounding them out.  Again, this is fully based on health coming out.  

Pitchers I think are basically set too, depending on health.  Rotation (not in particular order) Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Lopez, Maeda or Ober. (could be both if they go 6 man rotation).  Then Duran, Pagan, Thielber, Jax, other Lopez, then either Moran or Alcala.  The only wild card is the possiblity of sending Ober down to keep him as a starter roll if they do not go 6 man, and someone like Sands being the long man out of the pen, or after the 60 day DL moves someone not on the 40 man comes in.  

I only see one real battle that is for 5th starter or last pen spot. If they go 5 man rotation Ober starts in AAA and both Moran or Alcala make it.  If they want 6 man rotation then the only battle is for last pen spot, or if Ober wins the 5th over Maeda out the gate. 

It's really just the same old thing for the Twins.  Too many ifs. Especially with the pitching staff.  So I can add a few ifs myself.  The Twins will be successful IF the injured come back healthy.  If the players have career years.  If Baldelli puts his computer and spreadsheet away and realize there is a ball game going on the field.  I'd like to see if he can actually manage the on field product.  Haven't seen much of that during his time here.  There is potential If Buxton plays a full season and if he produces.  We've heard that for 8 seasons.  If  the .199 hitter we signed for 11 million produces.  If Kirilloff can play and produce.  If we can show we didn't need Arraez and Urshela offensive production by having players pick up the slack.  If we have someone to protect Correa in the lineup.  If we don't hen why pitch to him?  If Pagan... Let's not go there.  My point being that the Twins need all of their ifs to come through this season to be productive.  It can happen.  But it could just as easily blow up in their face.  Another if: if that happens then it's time for Falvey to go.

I would love to see Josh Winder move to the pen ..

“Would the team consider a six-man rotation to keep players healthy? ”

I assume that the motivation behind a 6 man rotation is the health and protection of the starters.  How exactly does that play out? The current approach seems to be that a starter goes 5, maybe 6, innings. I think the concept is not facing hitters 3 times. Relievers are brought in for no more than 1 inning. The result is one starter and 3 or 4 relievers per game. A reliever appearing every other game ends up with 80 appearances, a really high number. 3 or 4 relievers every other day means you need 6 to 8 relievers all cranking out 80 appearances. Going to 6 starters robs a roster spot from either the BP or position players. Something has to give, and I don’t think the St Paul shuttle is the answer since, although it spreads those appearances over more players, it is limited to players with options or a lot of DFA’s. 
If the limiting factor is “not facing hitters 3 times in a game” rather than innings or pitch count, maybe they ought to consider a 4 man rotation; 4 starters throwing 5 to 6 innings (70 -80 pitches), backed up by 3 or 4 relievers who can be expected to carry half that load every 3 or 4 days. You will have the occasional game with a starter going 7+ or getting knocked out early, but overall you set yourself up for a schedule that gets you through 7 or 8 innings before going to your 1 inning guys. 
I know there are arguments against that approach, but I just don’t see how 5 starters going 5 or 6 innings each, backed up by 8 relievers who never throw more than 1 inning can work. A 6 man rotation only makes it worse if they are faced with the same inning/pitch count/times thru the order limits. 

15 hours ago, TaterTot said:

It’s going to be interesting to see what role meada will play this year. Bullpen or starter? 

Welcome TaterTot!

Not much question here.  Maeda makes more money as a starter with the way his contract is structured.  Considering he was insanely good before the injury, he will be starting the year as a SP

19 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I think the key battle is the corner OF position and whether we keep all of Gallo, Kepler, Larnach, and Gordon. While there are a number of options, I'd like to see them trade Kepler and make LF a Gordon/Larnach/Farmer platoon. That opens up the DH spot for a number of players while still giving Larnach and Gordon 400-500 ABs apiece. It also opens up a spot for a RH hitting 1B/OF or a utility IF like Willi Castro. It is a little risky if we have a lot of injuries again but on balance I think we need to play Larnach and Gordon regularly and I just don't se how to do that if we keep Kepler on the roster.

I would also like to se us pick up a LH bullpen piece, hopefully Chafin or Moore, after Lewis and Paddack go on the 60 day IL. Megill can then go to AAA as the closer. I could also see them keeping Henriquez or Sands as a long man with Alcala to AAA so he get his rhythm back after the layoff.  

The Starting pitchers should stay starting in AAA for depth for the season. Both Ober and Winder should be starting in AAA every 5th day so they are ready to come up start when necessary. I expect there to be at least 15-25 MLB starts available outside of the presumed starting 5 due to injuries and ineffectiveness issues so we will need these guys, plus Varland,  SWR, and eventually Paddack.  

7 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

So Gordon occupies our last position player bench slot. Please….

Once again, would you trade away Gordon straight up for any of Kepler, Gallo or Taylor? Honestly, of those four players, who projects to bring the most value to the Twins over the next several years? It’s not even close.

Last season when the Twins started to swoon with Buxton out and Kepler anemic at the plate (and Gallo striking out 160+ times and hitting 0.160 - good grief),  it was Gordon that supplied much of the spark to this team. At the moment, based on most recent actual performance, Gordon is our second best all around outfielder.

So, are we going to DFA him so we can bring back Garlick while keeping Kepler, Gallo and Taylor? That’s utterly ridiculous. Unless Gordon has an epically horrendous spring, there’s not a snowball’s chance in Hades of that happening unless our FO is even more idiotic than some TDers think. 

“Please….. “ correct!! ……..all I have to say is Nick Gordon, last roster spot - Seriously?? Did anyone watch the 2022 season?

Played OF for first time in his career in ‘22. Gained 25 lbs & healthy (solved intestinal issue) for first time in his pro career in ‘22. Started 20% of games in CF. 40% of games in LF……..good speed - decent arm - needs reps/experience.

Gordon is now an outfielder unless there’s an emergency injury. Farmer is an infielder already slated to start 105-110 games at 3B - SS - 2B.

405 AB’s - 28 doubles!

.272 BA - 50 RBI batting 6th or lower in line-up

Also, played games at 2B when we had no other choice.

HEALTHY & getting stronger!

We (fans) think he’s our 2nd best outfielder in ‘22 but when we factor in “availability” he may be considered our best. #2 going forward.

2023:  80 games in LF - 50 games in CF ……ALL against RH pitching.

130 starts projects to 550 AB’s……similar BA of .270 against all RH pitching - 70 RBI - 38 doubles - 12 HR……..26th roster spot because we can’t send him to St Paul anymore????

Taylor can’t play in front of Gordon in CF v. RH pitching! Way too big of an offensive hit to take. Taylor is around to start against 30 LH pitchers - to pinch hit - to pinch run - to play OF in late innings as needed. INSURANCE if something goes sideways with health.

Larnach needs to be healthy & rip the cover off the ball in Spring Training to nab the 26th spot……in my opinion. Hope it happens!

Maeda will probably start, but he should probably be on the Archer plan for the first month or so until he builds his arm back up. I'm not sure his contract factors in all that much since we didn't sign him to it, but as a reliever he might well become some combination of disappointed, cranky, mad at not being allowed to pursue his bonus metrics.  No, I think he'll get a chance to recreate 2020 and Winder or Ober will end up in the pen to be his long man.  (I'd prefer Ober get a full starting job in St Paul until needed.) 

Pitching Staff out of Spring Training:

Mahle - López - Ryan - Gray - Ober

Use Ober’s healthy innings in Mpls. instead of St Paul early in the season. Get Maeda ready and stretched out from the Pen, throwing 1.3 - 2.0 innings at a time a couple times per week. Then 3-4 starts in July if it’s best to move him from Pen. He could stay in Pen if everyone is happy with his effectiveness. Winder/Varland/ SWR are all options for August & September.

Maeda - Duran - Jax - Moran - Thielbar - Megill - FA…Moore/Hand - J. López 

Alcala - Winder -  in the wings…….Pagan drops in for the Moore/Hand spot if we don’t sign anyone.

20 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

 

“Please….. “ correct!! ……..all I have to say is Nick Gordon, last roster spot - Seriously?? Did anyone watch the 2022 season?

Played OF for first time in his career in ‘22. Gained 25 lbs & healthy (solved intestinal issue) for first time in his pro career in ‘22. Started 20% of games in CF. 40% of games in LF……..good speed - decent arm - needs reps/experience.

Gordon is now an outfielder unless there’s an emergency injury. Farmer is an infielder already slated to start 105-110 games at 3B - SS - 2B.

405 AB’s - 28 doubles!

.272 BA - 50 RBI batting 6th or lower in line-up

Also, played games at 2B when we had no other choice.

HEALTHY & getting stronger!

We (fans) think he’s our 2nd best outfielder in ‘22 but when we factor in “availability” he may be considered our best. #2 going forward.

2023:  80 games in LF - 50 games in CF ……ALL against RH pitching.

130 starts projects to 550 AB’s……similar BA of .270 against all RH pitching - 70 RBI - 38 doubles - 12 HR……..26th roster spot because we can’t send him to St Paul anymore????

Taylor can’t play in front of Gordon in CF v. RH pitching! Way too big of an offensive hit to take. Taylor is around to start against 30 LH pitchers - to pinch hit - to pinch run - to play OF in late innings as needed. INSURANCE if something goes sideways with health.

Larnach needs to be healthy & rip the cover off the ball in Spring Training to nab the 26th spot……in my opinion. Hope it happens!

This. The last roster spot is for Larnach to grab, not Gordon. Gordon is already on the team and should start if Kepler is traded. He'll also start if Kirilloff can't go and either Gallo or Kepler has to play 1B. Gordon could also see 2 games a week at DH. Bottom line is that as presently constructed this is a team with a lot of interchangeable pieces who all will play 5 days a week. Gordon is one of those pieces. . 

6 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Pitching Staff out of Spring Training:

Mahle - López - Ryan - Gray - Ober

Use Ober’s healthy innings in Mpls. instead of St Paul early in the season. Get Maeda ready and stretched out from the Pen, throwing 1.3 - 2.0 innings at a time a couple times per week. Then 3-4 starts in July if it’s best to move him from Pen. He could stay in Pen if everyone is happy with his effectiveness. Winder/Varland/ SWR are all options for August & September.

Maeda - Duran - Jax - Moran - Thielbar - Megill - FA…Moore/Hand - J. López 

Alcala - Winder -  in the wings…….Pagan drops in for the Moore/Hand spot if we don’t sign anyone.

Interesting idea. I agree that Ober is in the rotation if Maeda is not. The question mark is Maeda. I could see him in the bullpen but his contract makes that a tough one since his bonuses are all tied to starts and he "only" makes $3 million without the bonuses. I cold see the twins signing him to another 2-3 year deal if he looks good in Spring training so they have more flexibility with his use. Maybe one with a signing bonus to take the sting out of him going to the bullpen this year. 

53 minutes ago, Elliot said:

“Would the team consider a six-man rotation to keep players healthy? ”

I assume that the motivation behind a 6 man rotation is the health and protection of the starters.  How exactly does that play out? The current approach seems to be that a starter goes 5, maybe 6, innings. I think the concept is not facing hitters 3 times. Relievers are brought in for no more than 1 inning. The result is one starter and 3 or 4 relievers per game. A reliever appearing every other game ends up with 80 appearances, a really high number. 3 or 4 relievers every other day means you need 6 to 8 relievers all cranking out 80 appearances. Going to 6 starters robs a roster spot from either the BP or position players. Something has to give, and I don’t think the St Paul shuttle is the answer since, although it spreads those appearances over more players, it is limited to players with options or a lot of DFA’s. 
If the limiting factor is “not facing hitters 3 times in a game” rather than innings or pitch count, maybe they ought to consider a 4 man rotation; 4 starters throwing 5 to 6 innings (70 -80 pitches), backed up by 3 or 4 relievers who can be expected to carry half that load every 3 or 4 days. You will have the occasional game with a starter going 7+ or getting knocked out early, but overall you set yourself up for a schedule that gets you through 7 or 8 innings before going to your 1 inning guys. 
I know there are arguments against that approach, but I just don’t see how 5 starters going 5 or 6 innings each, backed up by 8 relievers who never throw more than 1 inning can work. A 6 man rotation only makes it worse if they are faced with the same inning/pitch count/times thru the order limits. 

Could piggyback the 5th/6th starters. Ober goes on 5th turn ……..18-20 batters so guys aren’t seeing him 3 times. 4-5 innings. Maeda comes in and throws essentially, the balance of the game. Can choose to bring a BP arm in during a middle inning change & let Maeda start next inning fresh. Always an opportunity to throw closer in 9th. Still saves 6 BP arms on that night. Worth considering since if the piggyback got some rhythm (success), the innings thrown for both guys, work for the whole season. (30 starts at 4 innings)

Just an FYI, I like Gordon as well, and have been supporting and rooting for him for years. And I've been very impressed how he adapted to the OF on the fly. But he did not, in fact, adapt to the OF in 2022. His move began in 2021 and he appeared in 45 total games in the OF then.

I think you are one roster spot short in your analysis. Or in Larnach your DH? I think Gordon is ahead of him on the depth chart. 

Under the current CBA rules, is it possible for the front office to renegotiate Maeda's contract right now?  If Maeda is agreeable to moving to the bullpen right now, sign him to a three-year $25M extension with a few relief-based incentives thrown in.