3 Questions Byron Buxton Can Answer in September

Will he play full seasons? Is he worth Donaldson money right now for five years? How much do you lose if he can play out a contract, but not fulltime? Or should it just be the problem of another team.

So much is at stake in his final 25 game run for this season as other teams scout him...carefully. His next season, as a Twin or not, is essential to Byron. If he plays the whole season to the satisfaction of his past couple (or 162 games), he is set. But I don't see another team necessarily trading for him and then signing him for the $100-125 million he reportedly deserves. Which means he becomes a rental and the Twins get a high recent draft pick and another decent player in the mix, more or less...probably less.

The pain is if Buxton literally sucks, the Twins option is a QO at season's end to get a draft pick, or nothing...unless he is healthy enough to bring something, anything back at the trade deadline. Like Berrios, I think Buxton is looking towards a glorious future, or so his agent is telling him.

I smell the Joe Mauer contract situation of years ago.  All those who said we had to do what it takes to sign him.  When things didn't unfold as expected or hoped, we heard complaints and moaning til his contract and playing days were over.  If you rfeally think Mauer tanked, that's your business.  But, I saw a guy trying to do his best on and off the field.

Fair weather fans should migrate somewhere else.  In Minnesota, you can't always predict the weather.

Mauer was paid millions and how many Championships did he bring? ZER0. He brought fans to the park and helped the Pohlads recoup some of the millions they spent, Did he bring in enough to cover his contract? What is the goal? Making money or winning Championships? We can argue the Twins have a better chance of another WS title with Buxton verses without, but if he's always hurt, he becomes a very expensive part-time player that probably isn't going to make a difference in a quest for another ring. Can't recall a Championship team winning it all when their best player/s only play part-time. My biggest gripe about Buxton...... we are at the point of his career where he will become a Free Agent and he really hasn't even played a full season yet. How do you put a value on a player like that?

26 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Is it possible these were different individuals doing the advocating and later the complaining?

Yes, but it's also probably true that many who supported the contract turned sour when it didn't pan out.

1 hour ago, RickOShea said:

I smell the Joe Mauer contract situation of years ago.  All those who said we had to do what it takes to sign him.  When things didn't unfold as expected or hoped, we heard complaints and moaning til his contract and playing days were over.  If you rfeally think Mauer tanked, that's your business.  But, I saw a guy trying to do his best on and off the field.

Fair weather fans should migrate somewhere else.  In Minnesota, you can't always predict the weather.

The contract's size and length was acceptable for Mauer's track record, but turned into a millstone once he sustained injuries and lost the ability to play catcher. As for Buxton... he already has an astronomical number of injuries and doesn't have anything close to the track record Mauer had at the plate (as a hitter). He's in his prime now and they'd be paying him in his 30s... I simply can't see an extension ending well for the Twins. 

It is a lose-lose situation for the Twins... if they extend him he likely won't be worth the money and Twins fans will moan like they did with Mauer. If they don't extend him, the fans will lament their inability to re-sign their homegrown talent. 

I like the quote in the article that Buxton's hip injury was "behind " him. Clever.

The real question I have is:  Does Buxton have the bad beard featured in the lede photo above?

If he does, sign him to a long term deal.

15 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Agree to disagree on what? Literally everyone actually involved and with direct knowledge of the situation says 7/80 is/was agreed upon. Your argument is that they're all wrong (or lying) and you know better. So, sure, agree to disagree.

I believe he will get more guaranteed as A FA was my point.  And I'm saying we will have to wait and see, but yes he will.

If 7/$80 is acceptable and the "incentives" are what's holding this up that is insane !!!  Tie his incentives to games played.  If Buxton PLAYS he will be "productive."  In many ways.  I would pay him up to $25 million a year with with games played incentives added in EASILY.  Maybe more in years 6 & 7.  As wise people on here have mentioned:  We don't have anybody who is even close to a replacement in CF.  If the Twins are going to have a prayer to be relevant and contend they need much better pitching...AND...BUXTON !!  If Buxton gets hurt and doesn't play in the necessary games to attain various bonuses the Twins are PROTECTED.  If he plays, he will be worth every dollar.  Heck, Buxton being up gives me a reason to tune into or go to a game now.  I'm certainly not engaging with anything Twins to see Jake Cave play !!  When you look at what his last 153 games played line is, that's impressive.  You load incentives tied to games played.  If Buxton plays, he gets PAID !  If he doesn't, the Twins don't have a ton of guaranteed money like Mauer's contract weighing them down.  This is NOT rocket science.

Lots of great Buxton comments.  It's too bad injuries have derailed his career.  I think the Twins offered him a fair contract due to all of his injuries.  He is a career .247 hitter in 7 seasons.  He had a great April now people are comparing him to Trout and others and giving him superstar status.  Since when does one month make him an all star?  I like him, and hope they can sign him but let's be reasonable. He needs to prove it by staying on the field and vastly improving on his .247 career average!

Sign him he's the only player worth going to watch play (when he does) and it's not like we grow 5 tool players on trees in Mpls.

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

If 7/$80 is acceptable and the "incentives" are what's holding this up that is insane !!! 

My guess is the FO is looking for what most of us think, base it on games played each year. and Buxton and his team are looking for if he hits a milestone it guarantees money down the line.

I can't imagine Buxton accepting a contract that pays him 11 million, than 24, and back down to around 11 the next year an so on

Just my opinion on what is hold the incentives part up.

Players with a history if injuries when they are young rarely become more durable as they age.  Yes, there are exceptions.  Paul Molitor might be one example, but it is not a good one for Buxton as Molitor became a full-time DH, and if Buxton did that it would definitely lower his overall value.

That said, if they can sign him to a reasonable contract (i.e. one that does not prevent the team from improving in other areas), then they should do it.  If not, trade him for the best offer they can get.

If another team wants to offer him a significant amount of cash to be a part-time player, that is fine with me.

13 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Yeah, I still don't believe any of this.

First of all, 8 of Buxton's 33 hits came on infield grounders? Doubtful. 

 

Second of all, he's not turning into Matt LeCroy. He will be an exceptionally fast runner into his late 30s at least. Not as fast, sure, but still very fast.

He's not losing 50 points of OPS over infield grounders. 

You do the math then. www.fangraphs.com. Knock yourself out.

On 8/23/2021 at 9:02 AM, Joey P said:

Trading Buxton would be one of the worst decisions this team could make. We need to pay him what he wants. At some point he will stop getting hurt. I honestly believe that he does not want to move. 

Why do you think that at some point he will stop getting hurt? Some people are more prone to injury and healing times are slower. 

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

You do the math then. www.fangraphs.com. Knock yourself out.

I'm not really an expert on some of the advanced stats, but I believe you are citing the IFH% stat of 25.7%?
Based on the fangraphs pop-up explanation, it appears that is the % of hits on infield ground balls (GB).  So in other words, 25.7% of 36.5%, or 9.38% of his total BIP (balls in play.) And that's only BIP, not total ABs and counting walks or strikeouts.  I think this might be the wrong hill to die on.

While you are at fangraphs though, make sure to check out the Hard hit %, the barrels %, wRC+ and other stats.  Pretty exciting if you ask me. 

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong though.

8 minutes ago, TwinsAce said:

I'm not really an expert on some of the advanced stats, but I believe you are citing the IFH% stat of 25.7%?
Based on the fangraphs pop-up explanation, it appears that is the % of hits on infield ground balls (GB).  So in other words, 25.7% of 36.5%, or 9.38% of his total BIP (balls in play.) And that's only BIP, not total ABs and counting walks or strikeouts.  I think this might be the wrong hill to die on.

While you are at fangraphs though, make sure to check out the Hard hit %, the barrels %, wRC+ and other stats.  Pretty exciting if you ask me. 

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong though.

However, if you look at baseball reference, it does appear 7 Infield hits in 2020 and 9 in 2021.
I guess you can choose to use that stat if you want.  I personally think it ignores all of the growth we've seen in Buxton now for more than a year. 

Also, it ignores the fact that players like Nelson Cruz also get infield hits (second snip), so it's unlikely Buxton will lose that aspect of his game anytime soon.

On 8/23/2021 at 12:11 PM, chopper0080 said:

I guess my question is, if you aren't going to sign your own developmental players like Jose Berrios or Byron Buxton long-term, who are you going to sign? My understanding was that tax payer dollars going to build a beautiful stadium was to ensure the Twins were not the Oakland A's of the north.

The As have had more success than the Twins since Target field has opened. Not a good comparison. Berrios is a number 3 on a real competing team. We need an actual Ace. Calm down. 

Someone is WRONG in the INTERNET!!!!!!

On 8/23/2021 at 10:02 AM, Joey P said:

Trading Buxton would be one of the worst decisions this team could make. We need to pay him what he wants. At some point he will stop getting hurt. I honestly believe that he does not want to move. 

Pay him what he wants, how about pay for 36% of what he is worth since he doesn't play more than that in last 4 years.  What he wants and what he deserves are millions apart.  No faith in the guy who had one out of this world month in his career.  

On 8/23/2021 at 9:02 AM, Joey P said:

Trading Buxton would be one of the worst decisions this team could make. We need to pay him what he wants. At some point he will stop getting hurt. I honestly believe that he does not want to move. 

What evidence do you have that he will stop getting hurt?  I have said that Buxton contract is hardest to judge over anyone because of his long history of different injuries.  Do you pay him on the, "if he stays healthy" pay or on the "what has he show pay"?  If he is healthy he should get paid like top 10 guy, becuase he has shown he can be that when healthy.  Although in very small samples.  

Personally, I would not sign him to mega long term deal.  I do not expect he will ever stay healthy for a full season, and eventually his greatest asset, his speed and defense, will start to drop to normal player levels as he ages.  When that happens may be affect by his injuries.  

I would not pay full time mega money for a part time player.  I also do not think other teams will be willing to take that big of risk on outside the Yankees, Boston, LA's as they can afford to pay someone to not play on a mega deal, Twins cannot.  

As much as I want him to stay and actually play a full season, I would shop him around for a decent return, if they can get it.