3 Buy-Low Starting Pitchers for the Twins to Consider

38 minutes ago, Lonestar said:

You are way underestimating Eduardo Rodriguez's salary.. He's going to get a qualifying offer. I think the AAV on a 3-4 year deal will exceed that *$18.4M). 

That was my thought as well. If Rodriquez and Pineda are available for the salaries listed, the Twins should get them both. 

Agree with Lonestart that you're likely quite low on the E Rod salary, but he'd still be a good get for the Twins even if his price tag is a little higher. I think Heaney is an interesting bullpen convert project. I don't know what his market will look like as a former top prospect who's struggled in the bigs, but with his fastball and K rates I'd be interested to see what he could do while being unleashed for an inning or 2 at a time. I'd take a shot at him on a cheap deal and see what I could get out of him just letting it rip.

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Yep... Who would want a pitcher like Carlos Rodon.  He was a bargain basement price at 1yr/ $3M or Anthony Desclafani on a 1/yr /$6M deal or  Robbie Ray 1yr/$8M?  Why would anyone want to sign these guys?

what on gods green earth makes you think this front office can identify a potential bargain like one of those guys 

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I think they need to cut Pineda free. I think if they seriously want to make the playoffs Pineda can be no more then the #4. If they actually want to be a contender, he needs to be #5. 
 

But that $8M figure seems accurate if not too low, and that would almost certainly make him the Twins #2; #3 if they’re lucky. 

They need to stay away from that caliber free agent. Go all out for a top guy, cross their fingers and get a high ceiling bounce back guy like Syndergaard, Foltynewicz or Paxton, make a high ceiling trade and then do a low money crapshoot.

If they want to play it safe and pay 8-10M for a safe but zero ceiling guy like Pineda to bridge the gap to put near the top of the rotation, fine, but then I don’t want to hear any phony baloney about ‘contending’ next year. Be upfront and call it a rebuild.

I find it interesting that you'd be more impressed with a Thor, Folty, or Paxton signing than bringing Pineda back. Pineda is a far more predictable pitcher and they would likely feel comfortable expecting an ERA+ between 110-125 next year.

Thor was no better than Pineda in 2018, significantly worse in 2019, and has thrown 2 awful innings between 2020 and 2021 combined. And he'll cost about twice as much probably.

Folty was out of this world (143 ERA+) in 2018, but other than a league average 2019, he's been below average every year of his career, including 24 starts with an ERA of 5.44 this year.

Paxton was incredible in 2017 (140 ERA+), but has been worse than Pineda since. Including an awful 21.2 total innings between 2020 and 2021.

Feels like based on actual performance Pineda is the much safer pick for competing next year than taking a flier on 3 guys who either haven't been good or haven't even really pitched the last 3-4 years. Don't really understand the idea that signing Folty or Paxton is a sign they're trying to contend while bringing back the significantly better pitcher in Pineda isn't. Pineda has been an above average pitcher in his time with the Twins. Including being their #3 on pitching staffs that had top 10 ERAs the last 2 years. I think you're significantly underselling how well he's performed in his time in MN.

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Can’t tell if you’re being serious or sarcastic. There are plenty of buy low success stories in recent years. Odorizzi, Pineda, Hill, Clippard, Thielbar, Wisler, Harper… 

Those other guys had career All-Star type seasons this season. The only one comparable from your list is Odorizzi’s 2019 season. (Edit; Odorizzi is pitching for Houston in Game 1 of the World Series as I type this.)

Anything is possible and hope springs eternal in March but it’s a long shot. For 2022, I like the idea of trading and developing. 

38 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Completely agree about Pineda, you do know what he will give you, and it's overall decent pitching, but being safe is not how this team is going to go from 73 wins to 100 wins.

The Twins lack high end pitching. The odds of the other three guys working out are obviously lower, but they are high velocity guys with upside. Even if slim, they have a chance to be a top of the rotation arm; Pineda basically has no chance at that.

I've felt the most likely way to success is for this team is to take a step back and develop the young arms, so I'm not against playing it safe with Pineda. I just don't want to hear about them pretending to be "contenders" if they do. If they want to make a big, bold attempt at a quick turn-around, they need to sign arms who all have the potential to end up at the front of the rotation. Because they have none of those, and a contender would have three or four of those kinds of pitchers.

I don't know that I agree Paxton or Foltynewicz have upside. Throwing hard doesn't automatically equal upside. They've established they are not front of the rotation guys. They're fighting to re-establish themselves as ML pitchers in general let alone front of the rotation guys.

Pineda isn't giving "decent pitching." He's been well above average in his time with the Twins. I think you're maybe more focused on the flashy radar gun numbers than the actual results. Pineda isn't blowing people away, but he stops teams from scoring runs much better than the average ML pitcher. That's the goal. Prevent the other team from scoring. He does that. He shouldn't be the best pitcher the Twins have for 2022 if they're trying to contend. I think we very much agree there. But having him in the #3 spot is absolutely good enough to contend. In fact the Twins had the 2nd best fangraphs WAR in all of baseball for pitching staffs in 2019 and 2020 combined with him in the #3 spot.

If the Twins are trying to contend they absolutely need to bring in better arms than Pineda, but taking a shot on Foltynewicz or Paxton for cheap should absolutely not be viewed as a better attempt to contend than having Pineda. Signing any of the 4 guys we're discussing as their best pitcher is 100% not a legit attempt to contend. They need somebody better than anyone we've mentioned to be their #1 and Thor is the only one with a legit shot to even be a #2. But Pineda is still a better option for building a contender than Paxton or Foltynewicz. Paxton and Foltynewicz should be the end of the offseason so sign him for cheap and cross your fingers guys, not any sort of sign of a plan to compete. They're younger, harder throwing versions of Happ and Shoemaker as back end, inning filling lottery tickets.

I also think their best path is to develop the young guys, and if I were the FO my focus would be locking in the middle of my defense and top of my lineup (Buxton extension, Polanco extension, sign a big name SS) while figuring out which corner guys I want around and better balancing my roster. I'd much rather they trade some corner guys for pitching than sign a number of arms. But if they sign arms I don't want Paxton or Foltynewicz as anything other than competition with Ober and Ryan for back end roles or high velo bullpen options. If I signed Foltynewicz it'd probably be with a plan to let him rip for an inning at a time and see if he can pull a Liam Hendriks and reinvent himself as a shutdown reliever.

22 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I just don't see how anyone can expect this team to be an actual contender if Michael Pineda is the hypothetical game 1 or 2 starter in a playoff game. That would be just more of the same underdog situation this team has always put itself in come playoff time.

And I don't think this team can acquire three other pitchers with more upside than him AND pay him 8-10M.

The team you seem to be promoting does not sound like a contending team, which is fine, because again, my only issue is suggesting this team is a legit WS hopeful with Michael Pineda in the top half of the rotation.

I don't think they need 3 other pitchers. Ober and Ryan and the rest of the prospects are going to get the #4 and 5 spots. And I think that's the right call. Pineda has been every bit a #3 pitcher in his time here and there's no real reason to think he won't do it again in 2022. I 100% agree that you can't contend with him as your #1 or 2 (although the playoffs this year have been anything but a showcase of starting pitching), but spending 8-10M on him as your #3 seems quite reasonable. 

I don't see Paxton or Foltynewicz as having the upside of a #1 or 2. Besides 1 insane outlier season from each, neither has ever been better than Pineda so I don't see why they'd provide any hope of filling the #1 or 2 spot in a contending rotation.

I think we mostly agree. If Pineda is the best, or second best, pitcher the Twins have going into 2022 they weren't really trying to contend and they shouldn't pretend they were. I just don't agree that bringing in any of the 3 you named (outside maybe Thor as the #2) would be a better indication that they're trying to contend or give them a better chance to contend.

The team I'm promoting is one that doesn't spend big money on multiple FA starting pitchers, but trades for at least 1 young-ish, controllable arm that can slide into the #2 spot. Many have mentioned Marlins pitchers as targets and I'd trade just about any of our corner guys to them to get one of their guys. The Twins have too many corner guys and not enough up the middle defenders or starting pitchers. I'd spend money on the up the middle players and trade for the pitching.