2022 PECOTA Standings: The 2022 Twins can be Great

Who does Pecota project as playing SS to give us 3.3 fWAR?  Presumably most of that gets lost if we sign Story, so the gain isn't quite as big as you are making it out to be.

Thoughtful pathways here. Good stuff. We'll see if any of these options are taken.

Personally, I can't wrap my head around the idea that a pathetic 73-89 team can:

a) lose it's two top starters

b) lose it's three top sluggers

c) become defensively weaker in the IF

d) sign not a single impact FA pitcher

e) face improved competition in its division

and still be projected for an 11-win improvement. Now that's fun with numbers! Let the games begin and these projections can be put to the test.

11 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Thoughtful pathways here. Good stuff. We'll see if any of these options are taken.

Personally, I can't wrap my head around the idea that a pathetic 73-89 team can:

a) lose it's two top starters

b) lose it's three top sluggers

c) become defensively weaker in the IF

d) sign not a single impact FA pitcher

e) face improved competition in its division

and still be projected for an 11-win improvement. Now that's fun with numbers! Let the games begin and these projections can be put to the test.

Probably because 11 games is only 6.7% of a season so say you get 5% less out of a team than expected that would be a hair over 8 games worse. So even with worse pitching and some downgrades I would expect what happened is last year was a lot worse than expected so you have some reversion to mean performance and last years team did a lot worse than expected and we lost Berios and Cruz at the trade deadline so it isn't as if we had the whole team the entire year.

For me it is about how good the American League is looking this year.  It's possible that the East produces four 90 win teams again.

Houston should be solid again, Seattle, LAA, and maybe texas could be interesting.

The Twins better do really well against central teams.

It's important to remember that last year's Twins team was better in the second half than the first half, particularly once Colome was removed from the closer role, and that Colome alone seriously undermined this team in the first two months of the season, demoralizing them for the rest of the season. I think we're better out of the gate just by him being gone. It's addition by subtraction.

30 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Ryan is 1000x better than what they rolled out most of the year

I miss this kind of optimism.

"1000x better" for a guy in just his second year - a guy with a low 90's homer-prone fastball doesn't scream "1000x better" to me. And I like Joe Ryan.

I'm just saying that if 84 wins is the consensus for this club as currently constructed, the "under" seems like a safe place to invest my money.

It's getting late early. If the Reds are really taking both Mahle and Castillo off the market, the prices for both Montas and Manaea just went up and pretty much every team is talking with the A's. Pecota and all of the projection systems aren't worth anything without pitching and defense. The lineup for tomorrow's Spring Training game might be the roster with a couple tweaks (Kirilloff, Palacios) unless the phones start working.

8 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

It's getting late early. If the Reds are really taking both Mahle and Castillo off the market, the prices for both Montas and Manaea just went up and pretty much every team is talking with the A's.

MLB Trade rumors is reporting that the Royals signed Greinke and that the Tigers are interested in Pineda.

Any bets on who fills the Happ and Shoemaker roles this season?

If we take the Cincy FO at their word that they will not trade Mahle or Castillo, this leaves Montas and Manaea as the only available top line pitchers which is going to drastically increase the cost of their acquisition since Minnesota, New York, Chicago and others are in on the hunt.  I heard that on a radio show out of Denver that one of the Colorado Rockies insiders who knows Story says that he has told the Twins that he won't sign unless he perceives they will be competitive as he is sick of losing.  That will put additional pressure on the Twins if that is the case.  IF they get Montas, I think it will cost Martin, Lewis or Kirilloff, plus one of the Twins top minor league arms, plus one or more in the top 30.  That would beg the question:  why in the world did they sit on their thumbs last fall when so many great pitchers were available?  Just asking.

Kris Bryant is gone, Greinke is a Royal again and we have Sanchez and Urshela.  Why the optimism?  Is it because we haven't played anyone.  Quit the dreaming.  Lets play some games and see what we have.  I am so confused by the Twins this spring that I do not want to see any projections - what day did they make them?   Did we have Donaldson, Kiner Falefa, Gray?  We don't even know who is on the team.  We don't know who pitches, catches, bats, plays 3B, SS, LF, DH, 1B.  It is all conjecture.  I am going crazy. 

2 hours ago, RJA said:

why in the world did they sit on their thumbs last fall when so many great pitchers were available?

That's why so many of us were - and are - completely fed up with this FO. They have painted themselves into a corner, and have given their potential trading partners all the leverage going into the season. And they made the 2022 team significantly worse with their last salary dump trade.

If Story is looking to join a winner, there's not much reason to sign here at this point. Compare the rotations. Compare the commitment to payroll. Look at what this team just did with its last big FA signing that they expected to carry the franchise. I wouldn't blame him at all if he went with Boston for a few less guaranteed dollars.

PECOTA is just more clickbait. Let's see how their projections came out from last year to check credibility.......

https://www.mlb.com/news/2021-pecota-projections-breakdown

6 hours ago, tborg said:

Who does Pecota project as playing SS to give us 3.3 fWAR?  Presumably most of that gets lost if we sign Story, so the gain isn't quite as big as you are making it out to be.

Exactly my question.

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Kris Bryant is gone, Greinke is a Royal again and we have Sanchez and Urshela.  Why the optimism?  Is it because we haven't played anyone.  Quit the dreaming.  Lets play some games and see what we have.  I am so confused by the Twins this spring that I do not want to see any projections - what day did they make them?   Did we have Donaldson, Kiner Falefa, Gray?  We don't even know who is on the team.  We don't know who pitches, catches, bats, plays 3B, SS, LF, DH, 1B.  It is all conjecture.  I am going crazy. 

I bet these projections have K-F at SS and Donaldson at 3B and RV at Catcher. FO should have left well enough alone and gotten some pitching.

40 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

We're going to check one year, and one division to check credibility? I mean, they might suck, but that's no way to check math.

We? Just an example. Check all you want. It will just confirm it. (The link shows all the divisions for 2021. Plenty more right there for starters. Braves, Giants, Padres, Diamondbacks, Cubs, Cardinals, Mets, Red Sox, Angels, Mariners, Nationals, Rays..... about half the predictions not even close...... ) I find the best way to check predictions is to see how they compare to the actual result. I don't even need math, then. 

Example: 200 negative PED tests, and just one positive, and all credibility and a trip to the HOF is lost,......

I can't keep up with all the arguers "rules". My comment. My rules. I promise I won't tell you how to comment.

7 hours ago, Richmond Dude said:

It's important to remember that last year's Twins team was better in the second half than the first half, particularly once Colome was removed from the closer role, and that Colome alone seriously undermined this team in the first two months of the season, demoralizing them for the rest of the season. I think we're better out of the gate just by him being gone. It's addition by subtraction.

Correct. 59-61 over the final 120, so basically a .500 team over the final three-quarters of the year.

5 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Correct. 59-61 over the final 120, so basically a .500 team over the final three-quarters of the year.

And that includes trading off Berrios and Cruz and losing Maeda, all key pieces of the team.  It is hard to overestimate how badly Colome affected the team early on.

Nice Job Jamie !  Good discussion as well.

The Twins traded their best two right-handed hitters? Byron Buxton would like a word.

35 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

The Twins traded their best two right-handed hitters? Byron Buxton would like a word.

 

He should have stated that they were the two best "full-time" righthanded hitters. Part-time players usually aren't included in discussions.

Knowing the Twins way they will opt for Pathway #4.