2018 Twins Keys: Outfield Edition

Best part is none of the above is all that difficult to imagine! Buxton and Kepler almost have to get off to a better start and hit lefties better respectively. Rosario cutting down on swings outside the zone may be most unlikely but still I think there is a pretty good chance given the trajectory.

You want the main reason for optimism in Twins Territory?  These 3 guys are it.

Is it too much to hope for a Minnesota sweep of the Gold Glove Awards for the outfield?

I'm on the side that says:  Be patient with Kepler.  He's got a little over 1,000 PA's coming into this season, so I'm hopeful Max is ready for a break-out season.

Buxton could really use a quick start this year.  

Rosario:  Told ya so  :-)

I don't disagree that a .650 OPS versus left-handers will improve Kepler's overall numbers.    However, I think a .650 OPS still makes him a candidate for a platoon.    The only reason that would seem palatable is that we would have very little with which to improve those numbers from our current reserves (yes, Grossman's numbers should be better than that, but having him on the roster doesn't energize me).    I really like Zack Granite as a 4th OF, but I think the big picture answer is to continue to seek out a RH-hitting corner who can DH and play defense, making Grossman, Granite, and Vargas into one amalgamated player.

I don't disagree that a .650 OPS versus left-handers will improve Kepler's overall numbers.    However, I think a .650 OPS still makes him a candidate for a platoon.    The only reason that would seem palatable is that we would have very little with which to improve those numbers from our current reserves (yes, Grossman's numbers should be better than that, but having him on the roster doesn't energize me).    I really like Zack Granite as a 4th OF, but I think the big picture answer is to continue to seek out a RH-hitting corner who can DH and play defense, making Grossman, Granite, and Vargas into one amalgamated player.

While a .650 OPS is very bad for a starting right fielder, there are several reasons why I think it would be acceptable for Kepler vs LH:

• Defense - Kepler is better defensively that pretty much anyone I can think of to platoon him with.
• Roster flexibility- As you lay out yourself, current options (Granite & Grossman) don't fit well as platoon partners, so if you carry someone on the roster to be a Kepler platoon partner, you have to lose someone like Granite or Grossman and what they bring to the table.
• Consistency - This one is squishier and I don't have any data on it, but it would make sense to me that being part of a platoon might cause deteriorating results from the players strong side if it causes them to get out of rhythm due to having somewhat random days off. I recall reading in Kent Hrbek's book about this as we was given a lot of days off against LH pitching towards the end of his career.

If Kepler's OPS against left handers stays in the putrid 400s or 500s I think the drag makes it worth platooning, but I think .650 is worth keeping him in.

Is it too much to hope for a Minnesota sweep of the Gold Glove Awards for the outfield?

Did you see Rosario play left field last year?  He's got a ways to go.

While a .650 OPS is very bad for a starting right fielder, there are several reasons why I think it would be acceptable for Kepler vs LH:

 

• Defense - Kepler is better defensively that pretty much anyone I can think of to platoon him with.
• Roster flexibility- As you lay out yourself, current options (Granite & Grossman) don't fit well as platoon partners, so if you carry someone on the roster to be a Kepler platoon partner, you have to lose someone like Granite or Grossman and what they bring to the table.
• Consistency - This one is squishier and I don't have any data on it, but it would make sense to me that being part of a platoon might cause deteriorating results from the players strong side if it causes them to get out of rhythm due to having somewhat random days off. I recall reading in Kent Hrbek's book about this as we was given a lot of days off against LH pitching towards the end of his career.

 

If Kepler's OPS against left handers stays in the putrid 400s or 500s I think the drag makes it worth platooning, but I think .650 is worth keeping him in.

I think this lays it out. If Kepler gets it up to around 650 OPA vs LHP, then you don't have to automatically think about pulling him late when a tough lefty reliever comes in with the game in doubt in the 7th. Instead of a platoon, he's a guy that maybe gets his days off when the toughest lefties are starting, and you can carry a guy who isn't much defensively but rakes against LHPs because you don't have to put him out there for Kepler for every start.

And if he gets into to a platoon situation this early in his career, he's never going to get out of it. If he keeps getting ABs against lefties the odds are good he'll improve, based on prior performance. I'm willing to be patient for a guy like Kepler.

Just like I'm willing to be patient on Rosario with his strike zone judgement and patience at the plate. That's a skill that can grow with age and experience and if he can make incremental growth there he's going to be a heck of a hitter.

Buxton is a little bit slump proof because of his bunting skills.   I think that kept him afloat long enough for his other offensive skills to transition last year.    I think it might be worth while for Kepler to work on that skill as well.

Several years ago I was promoting Hicks to be the right handed batter in n outfield platoon.   He would look pretty good in a platoon, 4th outfielder spot right now.  At the time I never thought he would hit as a lefty and would have been happy to be proven wrong.    Now not so happy that he is proving me wrong with the Yankees.

 

In other words, swinging outside the zone is not a cardinal sin, if you make contact.  

Great point, Thrylos.

Vlad the Impaler made a HOF career on doing it

Realistically, in these days of 12 and 13 man pitching staffs, the days of platooning a player are probably over. There simply isn’t room on the roster when you already have only a 3 or 4 man bench. If Kepler can’t improve vs LHP he may see his career come to an abrupt halt.

.650 OPS vs lhp would be a very big inprovement in one year. Frankly, that may be as good as he ever does. Which, if he posts .900 plus agsinst rhp (which he may someday), that would probably get the job done.

Did you see Rosario play left field last year?  He's got a ways to go.

Did you see Alex Gordon play left last year? Apparently average defense can get you a gold glove. In other words, LET'S GO ROSIE!!!!!!!

If anybody suggests a trip down to Rochester for any one of these guys at any point in 2018, I am going to act a fool.

Rosie has always been my guy. Looking for a big year from him.

Eddie Rosario is the heart of the Minnesota Twins. Dozier is there too, but we all know he's a year from heading elsewhere, especially with the logjam of talent in the middle infield. That leaves Eddie as the emotional team leader. 

Rosie is notorious for flailing at anything white moving within a couple yards of the plate, but he has gradually toned it down, and 37 percent flailing was downright stingy last season. If he can just get it through his head that NOT swinging at pitches can put more pressure on a pitcher... sigh.

As Buxton accumulates professional expertise in each aspect of his game, he will continue to get closer to MVP. Rookie year, he was a horrible, embarrassing bunter. Now he's a good bunter. As a rook, Buck's form on steals was terrible. Now, it's close to ideal. Fifty steals will be easy for him this season. 

Kepler is going to get better against lefties because he's Kepler, and Kepler won't tolerate not solving a mechanical problem. I would be very surprised if he doesn't improve dramatically against lefties this year.

I dunno dude. I'm not sure why we would think Rosario went from a major plus defender in 2015 to a disaster in 2017. The main difference is that Rosario isn't covering as much range now as he did in 2015 but that's because Buxton is the full time CFer now as opposed to Hicks and Robinson then.

 

In any event, Rosario is a pretty fast guy with a strong arm so I don't think we need to overly worry about one year's sample of defensive metrics. I'm fairly confident we'll have a strong OF in part because Rosario is out there.

The main thing we saw in 2017 from Rosario IMO was poor decisions. Throwing to the wrong base, not hitting cut off man. Things like that.

If Buxton’s pressence explained the decline in Rosario’s fielding metrics, we would have expected to see the same from Kepler. Kepler’s got better.

Rosario has plenty of ability. He needs to keep his head in the game better.

Alex Gordon was a plus 0.7 dWAR last year, to Rosario's minus 1.6.
Rosario is going to have to improve a ton on defense to get to Gordon's level.

So in other words yes, you can win a gold glove with league average defence. Rosie gets to league average and roll the dice. Personally I think he's better than -1.6. Last year was a weird year defensively for him.

I dunno dude. I'm not sure why we would think Rosario went from a major plus defender in 2015 to a disaster in 2017. The main difference is that Rosario isn't covering as much range now as he did in 2015 but that's because Buxton is the full time CFer now as opposed to Hicks and Robinson then.

 

In any event, Rosario is a pretty fast guy with a strong arm so I don't think we need to overly worry about one year's sample of defensive metrics. I'm fairly confident we'll have a strong OF in part because Rosario is out there.

This^^^  There were a ton of times balls were hit to left center an both Rosario and Buxton were there in time to make the catch and the vast majority of the time Rosario deferred to Buxton.  I'm sure this didn't help his defensive numbers.