What would a Luis Castillo trade look like?

Chase Petty is pitching pretty well in A ball right now as a 2nd year pro out of high school.

Gray isn't exactly free with a $10MM salary this year and a $12MM club option next year, though he's definitely more than earning his keep. With Gray being a frequent flyer on the IL, he's about a 2.5 WAR pitcher with declining velocity. Good, but hardly excellent. A nice #3 guy when healthy who should be hauling in $15MM-ish per year.

So there is some value with Gray, but it's not like he's a front line starter the Twins stole for a middle rank prospect.

The Twins need the front end starter so dropping Martin and Balazovic is fine, but considering how they're playing, I'm not sure those would be the prospects the Reds would be asking about.

I suspect Larnach, Steer, Ober would be the ask.

Agree that at least Larnach would be part of the ask for Castillo PLUS something else. I went on baseball trade values and came away wiht Larnach plus Canterino for Castillo. By the way that same package also netted Montas plus AJ Puk from Oakland. I would do either of those two deals. What about you guys?

Miranda's fielding is abysmal, dump him.

That feels like an overpay to me.  Along with selling low on two top 5 talents.  

I think you make that trade

38 minutes ago, RpR said:

Miranda's fielding is abysmal, dump him.

So was Gaetti’s and Koskie’s at first. If he works at it, it will improve.

21 minutes ago, Cornholio said:

So was Gaetti’s and Koskie’s at first. If he works at it, it will improve.

Gaetti's numbers were never bad, and Koskie has one bad number, -1, his first year and one bad year after that, dream on.

I am not a big fan of Larnach's weak arm but he is a far, far better fielder than Miranda, trade Miranda.

Some people blither here about letting Garlic g,o and his (the wonderful world of analytics) OPS is better than the other three rookies; his best position is Left Field and that is where some one is needed.

Larnach has good numbers in right field where he can back-up Kepler.

I think a package of Scott Tyler and Travis Bowyer would do it.

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

That's easily the biggest problem I see with this trade idea. It's skimming the Twins farm system in a way that probably doesn't appeal to the Reds.

My question is which of the Twins prospects are other teams wanting? If I was another team I would be looking at Winder, Miranda, SWR, AK, Miller, Hajjar, and staying away from the Martin, Canterino, Steer, Wallners, Varland, Obers, and Laranch of the world, but that is just me.

As it's written/proposed, I'd do that deal. I don't like giving up both Ober AND Balazovic. But Castillo basically takes Ober's spot so again, I do the deal.

Maybe substitute Steer instead of Martin? I mean, if Cincinnati would be sour on Martin's down year vs potential. 

If that were the deal on the table and it was the Twins option to accept or reject and it was my call,  I would make that trade.  Solidifies the rotation for this year and next year and even though there are some good prospects in that deal it's the price of buy a top of rotation starter.  That being said, I think the Reds would want more of a headliner in that deal and I don't see that.  

New top 3 in Rotation when healthy would be Castillo, Ryan, Gray.

2 hours ago, PseudoSABR said:

That feels like an overpay to me.  Along with selling low on two top 5 talents.  

AA - a23 - 3rd professional year - .249/.378/.313 - OPS .691 - wRC+ 93 - 11.7% BB, 13.8% K. No power at all. Worst fielding percentage and range factors at SS in the entire league by a mile.

AAA - a23 - 7th professional year - 10.13 ERA, 7.70 FIP, 5.01 xFIP, 8.28 K/9, 4.60 BB/9, 2.32 WHIP

Selling that at all would be an achievement. 

Blaze, Martin, Obi-Wan and Wallner, all for just Castillo? Is he in contention for this year's Cy Young? If not, then that's too much. I could see maybe Cole Sands in place of Blaze, and Larnach in place of Wallner, who I think will be a better all-around player. 

Otherwise, I go talk to Oakland for a smaller deal. 

7 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Personally, I'm not sure I'd target high end pitching at the deadline but maybe that's just me. I think teams are going to be unreasonable in their asks, as there aren't that many quality pitchers available. I think the most hay will be made in the bullpen but Castillo is a very intriguing pitcher and in my opinion, the Twins hosed the Reds pretty hard with the Gray trade. The median outcome of Chase Petty is interesting reliever and two years of Gray for that price is a bargain. Could the Twins do it again?

https://sportsnaut.com/how-luis-castillo-minnesota-twins-trade-could-look/

 

View full trade rumor

 

IDK I'm kinda pessimistic about this season.  I mean if the Twins were in the position of the Yankees, Houston, etc.... I'd go for another front line starter and deal almost whatever it took to get that guy.  But even if the Twins get Castillo, and make the playoffs they don't likely match up with those teams anyway.  So I'd go after a couple of bullpen pieces to get the Twins into the playoffs.  Next year they should start off with Gray, Ryan, Ober and Maeda at the front of the rotation which at this point looks pretty good.  Don't really want to screw that up going for it with the team that they have right now.  But back in 2019 I'd have done something to try and match up better, but back then I thought the Twins had a better chance.  But apparently they didn't, but at this point in time in 2019 I didn't know that.  

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

AA - a23 - 3rd professional year - .249/.378/.313 - OPS .691 - wRC+ 93 - 11.7% BB, 13.8% K. No power at all. Worst fielding percentage and range factors at SS in the entire league by a mile.

AAA - a23 - 7th professional year - 10.13 ERA, 7.70 FIP, 5.01 xFIP, 8.28 K/9, 4.60 BB/9, 2.32 WHIP

Selling that at all would be an achievement. 

No wonder people want to make these trades.  Apparently, the hope is that the Reds or Athletics have not noticed that Balazovic has been horrific, and Martin has been mediocre at best.  We don't have any pitchers in the high minors that anywhere near satisfies what the ask will be.  Therefore, I would guess it would take something like Duran / Larnach and Steer or replace Ryan for Duran.

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

AA - a23 - 3rd professional year - .249/.378/.313 - OPS .691 - wRC+ 93 - 11.7% BB, 13.8% K. No power at all. Worst fielding percentage and range factors at SS in the entire league by a mile.

AAA - a23 - 7th professional year - 10.13 ERA, 7.70 FIP, 5.01 xFIP, 8.28 K/9, 4.60 BB/9, 2.32 WHIP

Selling that at all would be an achievement. 

It is just a half season. I would be happy to buy either player cheaply if I were another team. I am glad they didn’t sell low on Lewis who am a similar WRC+ in a season that stuck with him the next two years. I am glad they didn’t sell low on Duran with his injury filled shortened year of an ERA of 5.06 and almost a walk an inning. Alcala had ERAs of 5.85 and 5.87 his first two years in the organization. I am glad they stuck with him.

10 hours ago, bean5302 said:

AA - a23 - 3rd professional year - .249/.378/.313 - OPS .691 - wRC+ 93 - 11.7% BB, 13.8% K. No power at all. Worst fielding percentage and range factors at SS in the entire league by a mile.

AAA - a23 - 7th professional year - 10.13 ERA, 7.70 FIP, 5.01 xFIP, 8.28 K/9, 4.60 BB/9, 2.32 WHIP

Selling that at all would be an achievement. 

Why be eager to sell the poor production against the pedigree/profile? I don't get it. 

Keep such guys in the system and bet on them to produce.  

4 hours ago, PseudoSABR said:

Why be eager to sell the poor production against the pedigree/profile? I don't get it. 

Keep such guys in the system and bet on them to produce.  

You are basically saying why sell low?  While I might agree, that does not even remotely fit the context of this discussion.  The proposal is trade these prospects that are performing very poorly for a premium.  Martin has not been good since college and he no longer looks like a high ceiling prospect and I don't know what the heck is going on with balazovic but he doesn't look like a prospect that could be traded for a utility infielder in A ball right now.

This is why any trade for a Castillo or a Montas has to involve Larnach or Miranda as the headliner and Ober as the #2 in the deal.  As Otto pointed out when listing the actual proposed trade from MLB Trade Values, that package from the Twins is actually LESS value than Castillo.  Anybody acquiring either Castillo or Montas will need to overpay to some degree. 

And I'm fine with an overpay.  We're talking PROSPECTS for either of those two guys who are bona fide Top of the Rotation ACES!!  The short term benefit would be tremendous, but the long term strategy would be to spend the money and lock either Castillo or Montas up for 5-years.  BOTH are FAR superior pitchers to Berrios. 

If the Twins can get one of these guys, they simply have to.  Did anyone notice Castillo just fanned 13 Yankees and beat them just before the All Star Break ??  THAT'S the kind of pitcher the Twins need to trot out in a first round playoff matchup with the Yankees.  A guy who can single handedly shut down a potent lineup and win you the game.   

15 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

And if we fall out of contention next year, we can flip Castillo for Drew Butera and Dustin Martin!

absolutely not, you can't trade talents like that, they must be kept for when the Twins are truly competitive in a couple of year.

17 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

...Is he in contention for this year's Cy Young?...

Low on innings, but otherwise... yes. Right now, ranked #10 at ERA and FIP for starters with 70+ innings. I'd say Alcantara, Rodon and Burns are probably favorites.

14 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

It is just a half season. I would be happy to buy either player cheaply if I were another team. I am glad they didn’t sell low on Lewis who am a similar WRC+ in a season that stuck with him the next two years. I am glad they didn’t sell low on Duran with his injury filled shortened year of an ERA of 5.06 and almost a walk an inning. Alcala had ERAs of 5.85 and 5.87 his first two years in the organization. I am glad they stuck with him.

 

Alcantara... you mean Sandy Alcantara? ERAs at the highest level each season. Where were these 5.85 and 5.87 ERAs you're talking about?
a19 Rk - 3.22
a20 A+ - 3.62
a21 MLB - 4.32 -> Traded to Miami from St. Louis
a22/26 MLB - 3.44, 3.88, 3.00, 3.19, 1.76

8 hours ago, PseudoSABR said:

Why be eager to sell the poor production against the pedigree/profile? I don't get it. 

Keep such guys in the system and bet on them to produce.  

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

You are basically saying why sell low?  While I might agree, that does not even remotely fit the context of this discussion.  The proposal is trade these prospects that are performing very poorly for a premium.  Martin has not been good since college and he no longer looks like a high ceiling prospect and I don't know what the heck is going on with balazovic but he doesn't look like a prospect that could be traded for a utility infielder in A ball right now.

Btw, I'm not saying sell low. I'm saying you cannot sell them for anything of high value right now because other team front offices are not stupid. If the Twins were able to get another front office to see Martin or Balazovich as a major piece in a trade for a front line starter, it would be a huge coup.

2 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Alcantara..

Alcala. He plays for the Twins. Though he is injured I am glad they didn’t sell low on him after two bad minor league stints.