Breaking Down Potential Dansby Suitors

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

Things seem to work out exactly how Atlanta likes them to work out recently.

except freeman. this is why when their fans get all excited about their young players on cheap deals, like...what's the point if it doesn't mean you can't keep your anchors

If the Dodgers want him they'll get him.

24 minutes ago, bloggymcbloggerson said:

except freeman. this is why when their fans get all excited about their young players on cheap deals, like...what's the point if it doesn't mean you can't keep your anchors

Those players become the anchors, or you have the money to then go out and sign that type of player. 

2 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Those players become the anchors, or you have the money to then go out and sign that type of player. 

i'm old fashioned but i like to dance with the players i brought. if i've had a guy for six-ish years i know everything about him medically, etc. just my two cents. they haven't really signed that type of player though have they?

5 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Those players become the anchors, or you have the money to then go out and sign that type of player. 

Right.  They used that money to sign Matt Olson long term 

If the MLBTR analysis is right, I hope the twins are pushing hard, especially if Atlanta is only sitting around 6/$100M. They have plenty of space to drop 6/$120 with room to go up if Atlanta goes higher, and the deal should still be a good one towards the end.

Swanson is a clear step below Correa & Turner (and Bogaerts). he's unlikely to consistently put up the kind of year he just had. But he is likely to be a 3+ bWAR player on average. I'd be quite happy to bring him in and not worry about SS for years.

16 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

If the MLBTR analysis is right, I hope the twins are pushing hard, especially if Atlanta is only sitting around 6/$100M. They have plenty of space to drop 6/$120 with room to go up if Atlanta goes higher, and the deal should still be a good one towards the end.

Swanson is a clear step below Correa & Turner (and Bogaerts). he's unlikely to consistently put up the kind of year he just had. But he is likely to be a 3+ bWAR player on average. I'd be quite happy to bring him in and not worry about SS for years.

Hard pass. SS is the one place on the diamond we should be covered for the next 6 years no problem. By June we should be looking at Royce or Lee - and we better. 2 #1 picks. One of them better be the SS of the future. Please spend our money on PITCHING. Cannot possibly have enough quality PITCHING.

i think we all know the padres are going to swoop in with 12 years and 300 mill

1 minute ago, bloggymcbloggerson said:

i think we all know the padres are going to swoop in with 12 years and 300 mill

sure, why not have 5 SS? New baseball strategy: stockpile all the best SS so that no other team has anyone good playing there. Lose to the Dodgers.

Who is actually going to play SS for them out of Kim, Bogaerts, Tatis, and Machado anyways?

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Or, sign Swanson and deal one of those guys for pitching (not that I love Dansby, to be clear). Or, put Lewis in LF/CF (when Buck is hurt) and Lee at 3B and Miranda at DH/2B/1B. Lots of options here.....

I don't want to blow $20M on this guy. One good year at the plate. If Atl and LA aren't balls out trying to sign him, that tells me something. I think both Lewis and Lee will be studs. Farmer can cover the first 2 months. We need a #1 starter in a bad way.

7 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

sure, why not have 5 SS? New baseball strategy: stockpile all the best SS so that no other team has anyone good playing there. Lose to the Dodgers.

Who is actually going to play SS for them out of Kim, Bogaerts, Tatis, and Machado anyways?

listen, if the white sox can build a team of first basemen....why not? hahaha

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

There is one FA SP that is an ace. he wants 7/210.......

There are zero aces available in trade.

I get it, I do. But where are you getting an ace?

Make Rodon happen for $600 Alex?

18 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

I don't want to blow $20M on this guy. One good year at the plate. If Atl and LA aren't balls out trying to sign him, that tells me something. I think both Lewis and Lee will be studs. Farmer can cover the first 2 months. We need a #1 starter in a bad way.

LA is trying to get under the luxury tax, though. Atlanta sounds like they have limits on their payroll lower than we might expect (remember, they let Donaldson go when he wanted to stay too, and it seemed $$ related). Atlanta may be regretting the $9M they owe Eddie Rosario right now...

I think Lee is going to be a stud too, but he's barely played above A-ball. Royce is coming off a huge injury.

Look, if we actually sign rodon...great. Patch it together at SS and hope the lineup stays healthy. but I wouldn't be ashamed at all at landing Swanson and figuring out where to play lee & lewis later.

38 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

Hard pass. SS is the one place on the diamond we should be covered for the next 6 years no problem. By June we should be looking at Royce or Lee - and we better. 2 #1 picks. One of them better be the SS of the future. Please spend our money on PITCHING. Cannot possibly have enough quality PITCHING.

Lewis was questionable to stick at short before the first ACL injury, let alone the second.  Lee was also iffy as a future short before the draft.  We can hope that at least one if not both ultimately can be a competent defensive SS at the MLB level, but if I had to put a bet on it, I'd wager neither will be as good as Polanco was at short, which is to say, not particularly good.

Swanson isn't Correa, so we shouldn't think he unattainable. There's a lot of team that could be in on him. Most of them don't want to enter the bidding war but when things settle down. Braves, Dodgers, BOS, LAD, Cubs, Twins and maybe even the Yankees could be in the hunt. And there are teams that have a SS but want to upgrade and those that want Swanson as a 3B or 2B, that have the $ to spend.

9 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Lewis was questionable to stick at short before the first ACL injury, let alone the second.  Lee was also iffy as a future short before the draft.  We can hope that at least one if not both ultimately can be a competent defensive SS at the MLB level, but if I had to put a bet on it, I'd wager neither will be as good as Polanco was at short, which is to say, not particularly good.

I would add there is no guarantee either of them will become everyday MLB players. One has had 194 at bats since the Arizona fall league in 2019 and had two majors knee surgeries and the other one has had 139 total minor league at bats.

These are the two that people want to base the future of the Twins on, neither are really expected to have much if any impact in 23 so maybe 24? What if it takes a little longer than to be better than adequate?

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

If the MLBTR analysis is right, I hope the twins are pushing hard, especially if Atlanta is only sitting around 6/$100M. They have plenty of space to drop 6/$120 with room to go up if Atlanta goes higher, and the deal should still be a good one towards the end.

Swanson is a clear step below Correa & Turner (and Bogaerts). he's unlikely to consistently put up the kind of year he just had. But he is likely to be a 3+ bWAR player on average. I'd be quite happy to bring him in and not worry about SS for years.

I'm not in love with Swanson. But I don't hate him either. He's not Correa, but he's not bad either. Three years above 100 OPS+, though one was a short term 2016, and another year at 99 OPS+. Career 95 OPS+ for a SS is pretty acceptable, if not good. At 28yo, I wouldn't expect any big dip in performance for 4-5yrs.

It feels like MLBTR have been a little low from the early projections I read. I'd snap up Swanson for 6 and $120 without worry. He solidifies SS for the Twins as a "nice" all around option...who may have just hit his ceiling... and I can move Lewis to 2B/OF and Lee to 3B or other easily. But I'm thinking the way the market is going, he might end up at $150M for 6 or 7yrs. Do we still like him then? 

38 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Lewis was questionable to stick at short before the first ACL injury, let alone the second.  Lee was also iffy as a future short before the draft.  We can hope that at least one if not both ultimately can be a competent defensive SS at the MLB level, but if I had to put a bet on it, I'd wager neither will be as good as Polanco was at short, which is to say, not particularly good.

Lewis already looked better than Polanco at short, albeit for a very short time and you have to hope he comes back strong.  He is certainly quick enough, has the arm strength, but the question is his glove and arm accuracy. 

Lee appears to have the arm to play it for sure but may grow to big to have the range.  So far he seems to be hitting his way to the mlb sooner than later so maybe they get a few years there out of him before he gets to big.

Polanco lacked range, had a mediocre glove, but his major failing at was his horrible arm strength and poor accuracy.  He had zero above average traits for the position.

Neither are guaranteed to do so but Polanco is a low bar to clear at short.

29 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I'm not in love with Swanson. But I don't hate him either. He's Correa, but he's not bad either. Three years above 100 OPS+, though one was a short term 2016, and another year at 99 OPS+. Career 95 OPS+ for a SS is pretty acceptable, if not good. At 28yo, I wouldn't expect any big dip in performance for 4-5yrs.

It feels like MLBTR have been a little low from the early projections I read. I'd snap up Swanson for 6 and $120 without worry. He solidifies SS for the Twins as a "nice" all around option...who may have just hit his ceiling... and I can move Lewis to 2B/OF and Lee to 3B or other easily. But I'm thinking the way the market is going, he might end up at $150M for 6 or 7yrs. Do we still like him then? 

I would go the 7/$150M if that's what it took to get it done. I think Swanson can be a good defender at SS well into his 30s and still hit enough to be value added and get to around that average of 3 bWAR, and that's worth the money. league average hitter at SS is better than people realize. If Lewis & Lee play well enough to force their way on the roster, there are all kinds of ways to find room, as you've noted. It doesn't ruin the payroll, either at that AAV.

If Atlanta is trying to hold the line at $18M per year, and only 5 years...offer 6 at $125M and make him say no.

35 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

At some point you have to trust yourself to draft and develop.......I share your concern on Lewis, and wonder if Lee is a 3B.....but you can't live in fear.

100% agree you can't live in fear and yet everybody wants to sign Rodon. I am just sick of waiting for the next prospect to come save the day, how long has it been since that has happened? You have the money know sign a stud and see what happens with the prospects and figure it out when they actually force their way onto the team.

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

That sounds pretty great to me. Why wouldn't you want 5 shortstops? Well 4 I guess since there's only 4 infield spots. But 4 shortstops and 3 centerfielders sounds pretty ideal to me. You wouldn't be happy with Correa, Lindor, Turner, and Bogaerts in the Twins IF? Wouldn't be happy with Buxton, Trout, and Rodriguez in the Twins OF? The goal should always be to stockpile up the middle players.

Bogaerts at SS (for a couple years), Kim at 2B, Machado at 3B (why is he even in this discussion? He's been a 3B for more of his career than he was a SS), Tatis is going to the outfield.

At a certain point when you pay everyone SS money and only one of them is playing SS any longer it starts to get insane, though. Tatis is worth more at SS than he is in RF. If Bogaerts can't play SS in 3 years and ends up at DH, he better not lose anything off his bat.