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A recent report in The Athletic, which reads more like an off-hand comment than a groundbreaking revelation, purports that the Twins have expressed interest in RHP Michael Wacha. Now, “expressed interest” is a favorite baseball term that can loosely define every style of relationship a team can have with a player. Thad Levine vaguely dreaming about Wacha could lead to the team “expressing interest.” The Phillies have “expressed interest” in Mike Trout for a decade. The term means nothing. The connection makes sense, though. The Twins have yet to sign a major-league pitcher; Wacha is an arm capable of accruing outs between reasonable levels of runs scoring. With a bunch of theoretical payroll space and Carlos Correa probably still signing with the Mets, the Twins should spend their money on something. It’s a perfect pairing. But we’ve been down this path before. J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Dylan Bundy, and Chris Archer are four other arms who once possessed some nebulous upside, enough to convince a professional franchise to pay them money for their pitching labor. What happened after those players signed is well-known; we don’t have to tread that path again. Wacha is his own man, though; it would be unfair—and illogical—to believe he would match those past pitcher’s sins just because he loosely fits their outline. The Red Sox, Mets, and Rays, teams run by baseball people far brighter than us casuals, looked at Wacha, glanced at his numbers, and believed in him enough to guarantee millions of dollars to the former Cardinal standout. These weren’t teams chasing a false promise; they fairly gambled that, with a few alterations, Wacha could provide enough production to bring their franchise value. The bet didn’t work for the Mets or Rays, but it worked enough for the Red Sox that one could generously declare their deal a success. So, Wacha could do the same for Minnesota; that possibility remains tangible. The issue is a baseball-specific sunk cost fallacy mixed with classic roster manipulation. Those past deals—beyond turning sour as each pitcher failed to play well—failed because the Twins continued to send those arms out to die. Bundy inhaled 140 real major-league innings. He’ll now slither into baseball obscurity on a minor-league deal with *insert team here.* Or he’ll become an ace. Baseball is funny like that. The Twins told Bundy to go get 'em so often because, well, they were paying him $4 million, and people like seeing a return on their investment, but also because of flexibility. Or, rather, a lack of it. In a naturally conservative institution like baseball, hitting the eject button on a player is a nearly unalterable act. Without those tasty minor-league options, a franchise has to sneak a player by other teams, hoping that no one notices that a capable arm is now free for anyone to acquire. When that fails because the Diamondbacks need someone to throw slop for them, the team takes a vicious hit to their depth. So Bundy stays because he’s somewhat usable. In that sense, Bundy is useful; every team unwillingly hands out innings to players they’d prefer to avoid starting—hopefully, Adam Wilk is enjoying life. It’s the nature of pitching. But Bundy also blocks others. Louie Varland remains in the minors because Bundy isn’t terrible; he certainly earned a few victories for the Twins, but is he so much better than Varland that the Twins should eschew the youngster in favor of the veteran? This was the essential issue of the 2022 Twins; no one was truly horrifyingly bad, but instead existed in a mediocre haven, making it difficult for the team ever to cut bait. At least Shoemaker made it clear he was cooked. Wacha is probably not better than Varland; that’s the article. If you sign a pitcher with a good chance at being below-average—and without disrespect, Wacha fits that mold—you create fake depth; at least Varland can go to St. Paul if he starts pitching poorly. With Wacha, you just have to grin and bear it, only cutting bait once he reaches unforgivable status. Or, in Twins shorthand, if he “Shoemakers” it.

It wasn’t supposed to go this way for Carlos Correa. He spent the last offseason seeking a long-term deal over $300 million. He never got that and instead settled for a one-year contract that paid him the highest average annual value we’ve ever seen for an infielder. Now, still unsigned on January 8, his long-term prognosis has been scrutinized, and sources continue to indicate that Minnesota could be the benefactor. It has been multiple weeks since reports trickled in that Carlos Correa would be signing a 12-year, $315 million deal with the New York Mets. They were a late suitor to the party, but stood there with a wad of cash after the San Francisco Giants wanted to rework their 13-year, $350 million offer following a physical. We now know that the issues stemming from the physical all tie back to an ankle that was surgically repaired as a prospect, and the Twins have seen the same information. According to a source, Minnesota is now using the physical to their advantage. Correa was already cleared last March for what was a three-year contract. As recently as Saturday morning another offer was made. While the deal would still likely require a physical, the Twins have indicated they are comfortable with where Correa’s health and body are. Coming into the season, Minnesota knew that Correa would opt out after one season unless he played poorly or was injured. They sought to keep him on a long-term contract, ultimately offering 10-years, $285 million. That didn’t reach the same realm as either the Giants or Mets, and therefore left the Twins short. Prior to San Francisco making their last push, the Twins felt well positioned. Although that may have been shortsighted, it appears the chances may now be higher than ever. New York is looking to rework Correa’s deal, and a source indicated that language protecting the Mets meant his guaranteed money could be cut by as much as one-third. Correa is looking for long-term certainty, and the Mets adding conditions to exit the deal after seven years would be a non-starter. Although the Twins $285 million over 10 years was originally well short on dollars, it’s now in the ballpark of (or even exceeding) the truly guaranteed money. A source indicated the latest offer, which is thought to give Minnesota very firm footing, is in the range of that previous final offer. With New York reluctant on the length at this point, and with alternatives in top prospects Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, the Mets backing out altogether is not unfathomable. Mets owner Steve Cohen recently liked a tweet suggesting that the player needs his team more than the team needs him. Although that may be true for a franchise that has Francisco Lindor at shortstop and would be pushing Correa to the hot corner, it’s certainly not an ideal way to go about welcoming talent. From the get-go, Minnesota has made Correa and his family feel welcomed and a priority. Again, the front office has stood steadfast in holding close to an original offer despite multiple cutbacks from organizations that have since gotten cold feet. The Twins are growing increasingly comfortable that Boras is not simply playing with the Twins as leverage for the Mets. Instead, he has grown annoyed with the proceedings, wants resolution in the coming days, and Minnesota may even now be the frontrunner. It’s a wait-and-see game regarding Cohen and his unlimited amount of dollars. Whether general manager Billy Eppler wants to push forward or not remains to be seen, but the Mets have acted at the last minute multiple times during this saga. Knowing that players like Manny Machado and Shohei Ohtani will be free agents next offseason has helped to keep some of the biggest markets out of this race. Minnesota won’t be in consideration for those two, and this represents their best chance to make a splash of this caliber. Correa’s dollars could come in nearly $100 million more than Joe Mauer’s hometown extension, and seeing that type of commitment would be welcomed by Twins Territory. While it has always been unlikely that Correa would wind up back in Minnesota, and it remains unlikely, this is probably as close as it has felt to them looking like a front-runner.

Prospect development is not a linear path. Some prospects reach the higher levels of the minor leagues and struggle, while others move quickly to the big-league level. Two of the prospects outlined below had a chance to reach the big leagues in 2022, but their performance didn't warrant a promotion. Injuries and poor performance can hurt a prospect's long-term outlook, but these players have the potential to impact the Twins in 2023. Brooks Lee TD Top Prospect Rank: 2 Debut Prediction: September Minnesota selected Lee as the team's top pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. He flew through three levels in the Twins system and ended the year at Double-A. In 31-games, he hit .303/.389/.451 (.839) with six doubles and four home runs. He likely spends most of 2023 at the Double-A level, but his performance will dictate his ultimate landing spot. There is no need to rush Lee to the big leagues, but his college experience and advanced bat can put him on track to be a late-season call-up. Austin Martin TD Top Prospect Rank: 6 Debut Prediction: July Martin entered the 2022 campaign as one of the Twins' top prospects, but his season went differently than planned. There was an opportunity for him to make his big-league debut in 2022 since he was repeating the Double-A level. Unfortunately, he struggled offensively with a .685 OPS while also dealing with a wrist injury. Martin ended September on a strong note and carried his hot hitting into the Arizona Fall League. If healthy, Martin is still part of the team's long-term plans while offering plenty of upside. Edouard Julien TD Top Prospect Rank: 10 Debut Prediction: May While Martin struggled in Wichita, Julien was one of the organization's breakout prospects in 2022. In 113 games, he hit .300/.441/.490 (.931) with 19 doubles, three triples, and 17 home runs. He posted an eye-popping 1.248 OPS this fall on the way to being named the AFL's Breakout Prospect. Julien is close to big-league-ready when it comes to his prospect development. He will play the year in the upper minors waiting for an opportunity to arise at the big-league level. Since he's on the 40-man roster, one injury is all it will take for a call-up. Jordan Balazovic TD Top Prospect Rank: 15 Debut Prediction: June Balazovic struggled through much of 2022 but ended the year on a high note. Minnesota needed many starting pitchers last season, but Balazovic never got the call. In 22 appearances (70.2 IP), he posted a 7.39 ERA with a 1.94 WHIP and a 76-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Multiple starting pitchers have passed him on the organizational depth chart, but there have been times when he was considered one of the team's best pitching prospects. His September might signify that he is ready to take the next step, which can set him up for a bounce back year in 2023. Will all of these prospects debut in 2023? Can Martin and Balazovic bounce back? Who are you most excited to see? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.