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Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made arguably the biggest splash of their tenure leading the Twins when they inked Carlos Correa to a deal last offseason. Ultimately, after pawning Josh Donaldson off on the New York Yankees, Correa fell in their laps. Minnesota had substantial money to spend, and a need that he could fill. This offseason, that same reality remains true, but Correa should have suitors willing to pay him Francisco Lindor money. It’s probably unlikely that the Twins are one of them. So, where does that leave a team waiting on Royce Lewis’ eventual return? It’s a big gamble to believe Lewis, coming off a second ACL surgery, will be the same player. However, his debut provided enough excitement to suggest he can hold down the position. Isiah Kiner-Falefa was who this front office targeted initially, before Correa, and that would have been a defense-only option that ultimately filled the void. Now facing a similar scenario, the front office will need to navigate a path forward. Despite the position being arguably one of the most important on the diamond, there are not a ton of options this winter. That is unless you want to play in the deep end of the pool. Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, and Correa are going to be the top tier, but from there it’s quite a drop-off. Minnesota would seem an unlikely landing spot for Chicago White Sox Tim Anderson. He’s not a good defender, and a long-term deal there doesn’t make much sense. They could opt for an Ehire Adrianza reunion, but Jermaine Palacios would probably have been a better option before he was DFA’d and claimed by the Tigers. Both Elvis Andrus and Aledmys Diaz check the veteran box with some offensive upside, but it’s hard to envision either being an ideal fit for the Twins. Andrus provided production in just a limited sample, and Diaz hasn’t held down a single position in years. With external options waning and one name still yet to be discussed, things keep coming back to Jose Iglesias. The well-traveled veteran is coming off a one-year deal with the Colorado Rockies. He’s never been more than a league-average hitter, outside of the 2020 outlier with the Baltimore Orioles, but he does hit for a solid average. Defensively Iglesias has rated poorly from a Defensive Runs Saved standpoint, but has been roughly even when it comes to outs above average. As a whole, he’s the ideal type of player to operate in a stopgap role. There should be little reason Minnesota would need to pay handsomely for Iglesias. He made just $5 million last season in Colorado, and likely could be had for a similar amount in his age-33 season. Iglesias has been a reliably healthy option for years now, and could certainly hold down the fort until Lewis is ready to make his return. There’s no reason to suggest that Iglesias would be a big move for Minnesota, and if anything, it’d likely be received somewhat poorly. Coming off Correa though, the only way to lessen the blow is by re-upping on a new deal or swinging big on one of the other top two options. Going the stopgap route at shortstop could allow the Twins more funds to hand out elsewhere, however. Ultimately, there are not a ton of options on the free agent market. It doesn’t make much sense for Minnesota to swing a trade for a shortstop, and if they aren’t paying Correa, it’s odd to think they’d spend on someone else. Iglesias is where I’d put the highest odds at this point, especially considering the lack of internal options. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- See where Jose Iglesias ranks among free-agent shortstops according to Cody's article from yesterday.

Baseball organizations tend to follow the trends set by other successful teams. In recent years, the Braves have solidified themselves as a model franchise, and other organizations will look to copy their winning model. The club's ability to sign players to long-term contracts is part of its success. Is this approach something the Twins should consider? Earlier this week, the Braves announced they signed rookie starting pitcher Spencer Strider to an extension that buys out his arbitration seasons while giving the team two extra years of control. Michael Harris II, another Braves rookie, also signed an extension earlier this season that followed a similar structure. These aren't the only players the Braves have been able to lock up. Besides Strider and Harris, Atlanta has also signed some of their other top players to long-term deals. Matt Olson and Austin Riley signed extensions during the 2022 season. Previously, the Braves had signed Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies to very friendly long-term deals. Atlanta is guaranteeing money to players beyond their arbitration years which has risk, but the Braves are hoping to see the players outperform the value they are paying. The Braves and the Twins have different philosophies when creating their rosters. Atlanta has over $150 million in guaranteed money on the books for 2024, with nearly $100 million going out as far as 2028. Minnesota's front office likes to have payroll flexibility and tends to avoid long-term deals. Byron Buxton and Randy Dobnak are the only Twins players with options that extend beyond 2025. During the 2022 season, the Braves' payroll ranked in baseball's top 10, while the Twins ranked slightly below league average at 16th. Atlanta's long-term investments come with inherited risk. Players can suffer catastrophic injuries and miss significant playing time. There is also no guarantee that these players will continue to develop at the big-league level. The Braves have already won a World Series, and they hope they can contend for multiple other titles over the next five years. Fans can forget poor play if World Series flags are flying forever. Atlanta can also hope that a few of these players produce at a superstar level to outweigh the dead money on the other contracts. For the Twins to follow the Braves' strategy, the right players are needed to make these deals work out in the team's favor. Minnesota signed Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler to team-friendly extensions, and an argument can be made that both contracts worked out in the team's favor. Polanco's contract can max out at $48.25 million, and he has provided the Twins with nearly $80 million in value since 2019. Kepler's deal can be worth just over $42 million, and he has been worth $72.6 million. Those deals have worked out in Minnesota's favor, so who can the team target for extensions? Health has been the biggest issue for young Twins players, including many of the team's recent top prospects like Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Matt Canterino, and Trevor Larnach. All these players might be extension candidates if health wasn't a question at the beginning of their big-league careers. Those aren't the only players who are extension candidates following the 2022 season. Luis Arraez, Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran, and Jose Miranda are some younger players the Twins could consider for a long-term extension. Arraez won his first batting title in 2022, and the Twins have him under team control for three more seasons. It will be harder to lock-up Arraez as he gets closer to free agency. Ryan, Duran, and Miranda are pre-arbitration eligible, so they are under team control through the 2027 season. The Twins can try and sign them early to gain extra years of team control. Minnesota's current front office likes to clean the team's long-term books, which allows for more flexibility. However, other teams are locking up their young players to help the organization continue to win. Do you think the Twins front office needs to change strategies? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Luis Arraez is, in so many ways, not the guy you'd expect to finish atop a team's MVP vote – or alongside the absolute legends in Twins history who've preceded him as AL batting champs. You compare him to the other players on that exclusive list – Rod Carew, Joe Mauer, Tony Oliva, Kirby Puckett – and you're talking about thoroughbred Hall of Famers who looked the part. Many would count those four players among the five best in franchise history. Even comparing Arraez to the players who finished second and third behind him in Twins Daily's MVP balloting – Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, respectively – is an amusing exercise. We're talking about preternatural teen talents who went 1-2 in the draft a decade ago – big-bucks superstars who smash the ball, and derive much of their value from premier defense at premium positions. Then, you have Luis Arraez. The Venezuelan was not a highly regarded property when signed by the Twins as an international free agent in 2013 for a measly $40,000 bonus. Just looking at him, you can see why. He is small and stubby – generously listed at 5-foot-10 and 175 lbs – with neither the speed, nor power, nor defensive skill to impress any onlooker. But Arraez brings one truly preternatural tool of his own, and it has become his signature. As Jake Mauer, his manager at Cedar Rapids back in 2016 – and a guy who has his own familial knowledge on the subject – said of a then-unknown Arraez back then: "He's got a knack for finding the barrel." Oh yes. And it's carried him from anonymity to All-Star status. It doesn't matter where he's at. It doesn't matter who's pitching to him. It doesn't matter the count. Arraez just hits. He's irrepressible, with contact rates that top the charts. Virtually no one swings and misses less or strikes out less. Yet despite his ability to put the bat on everything, he is disciplined enough to pass on most out-of-zone offerings, and walked more (50) than he struck out (43) this season. In a lineup that was prone to slumps, and often far too over-reliant on power at the expense of consistent quality ABs and rally-building, Arraez was a breath of fresh air. He was never an easy out, reflexively tapping outside pitches the other way for singles and then inviting pitchers to the inner half, where he could turn on the ball and unlock new levels of power. Arraez's .421 slugging percentage was nothing to write home about but he launched a respectable 40 extra-base hits, and doubled his previous career high for home runs with eight. Now, before I go any further, a disclosure: I didn't have Arraez at the top of my team MVP ballot. In fact, I didn't have him among my top three. Because, analytically, it's hard to make that case. Yes, he led the league in average. But that's merely one piece of the value equation. Arraez ranked third on the team in fWAR behind Correa and Buxton, with a 3.2 mark that is one of the lowest for a Twins Daily MVP since we started awarding it. Baseball Reference's WAR formula viewed Arraez more favorably (4.0) but he was still second to Correa. Even the seemingly more narrative-based Win Probability Added metric placed Arraez sixth on the team, behind Jhoan Duran, Jorge Polanco, Buxton, Joe Ryan, and Correa. But even WPA doesn't seem to capture the full narrative behind Arraez, and the positive impact that lifted him to the top of our collective balloting. It's true that Correa was difference-maker down the stretch – he had the sixth-highest WPA in the AL after July – and technically that portion of the schedule mattered a lot. It's also true that Arraez's bat went relatively quiet in those final months, as he battled a hamstring strain that limited him mostly to DH duty in September. But by then, it felt like the decimated Twins were engaged in an inevitably losing fight. When the team emerged early on and grasped first place, Arraez was the beating heart of the lineup. In the month of May, where the Twins went 18-12 to reach their greatest heights of the season, Arraez batted .377 with a .480 on-base percentage and 19 runs scored. He then flashed his emergent power in June, notching four doubles, three homers and a triple while driving in 15 runs. Compared to the likes of Correa and Buxton, Arraez loses a lot of value from metrics like WAR because of his reduced defensive value. And that's fair: no one would argue that Arraez impacts games with his glove like Buck in center or C4 at short. But the Twins didn't ask him to, or need it. What they needed him to do, after Miguel Sanó and Alex Kirilloff went down, was take over at first base, a position he had essentially never played before. Arraez is not exactly physically suited for the position either. But sure enough, he adapted quickly and proved to be a perfectly solid defender at first. Ultimately, I think that's what it came down to, and why the vote swung to Arraez. He simply showed up. He answered the call, time and time again. While the roster succumbed to injuries around him, he kept playing all year long, leading the team in plate appearances and games played (despite – as it's now easy to forget – being a healthy scratch on Opening Day!). By season's end, Arraez was the only worthwhile attraction for Twins fans, who could tune in to watch him battle Aaron Judge down to the wire, for a superficial honor, amidst a Triple-A lineup in a lost year. Arraez kept on showing up through the very last day, barely able to run and clearly limping, because he wanted "to win the batting title fighting." He did just that, and it's the fight he demonstrated down to the bitter end that likely helped elevate Arraez as the unlikely Twins Daily 2022 team MVP. FINAL BALLOTING POINTS TALLY Arraez: 55 Correa: 46 Buxton: 33 Durán: 27 Gray: 13 Miranda: 11

Jake Cave’s return for 2022 felt frustrating in part when many expected the debut of prospects to be filling those lineup slots. But then an odd thing happened: I didn’t hate Cave this time around. He genuinely seemed to play better every time I expected the worst. And with the season’s doom leading toward more existential questions, a truly odd thought filled my head: Is Jake Cave Good? Let’s cut to the chase: Not particularly. Jake Cave slashed .213/.260/.384 (.624), only a minor improvement on last year’s .189/.263/.400 (.663) with basically the same number of plate appearances. His WRC+ hovered almost to 100—essentially league average—before crashing down to 81. And yet there was Cave hustling to first at Yankee Stadium to put Carlos Correa in position to smash a dinger to give the Twins the lead. In the critical Cleveland series, Cave hit a bomb off Triston McKenzie to provide the Twins an early lead. And if you looked out at the outfield, you could have sworn Buxton had transported himself into Cave’s body as he continually laid out to make a few diving catches. Cave showed significant improvement this year in numerous ways. His Triple-A stint surely helped as he posted a .879 OPS over 85 games, his best since his time in Rochester back in 2019 that eventually landed him on the big-league roster for the last four years. He went on a 49 plate on-base streak, only ended by an unlucky five-inning rain out where he only managed two plate appearances. When Cave first joined the Twins for the San Francisco Giants series at Target Field that gave one last fresh breath of air into the team, he managed to tie the game in the 9th inning with a single, and then the next day smashed a two-run homer and another double in a rousing victory. Cave cooled down into his more expected self, but a few notable stats stick out. First, Cave had become a big strikeout guy, particularly in the 2021 season where he was around 35%. Going back to Triple-A worked wonders. He dropped that to 25% and then only climbed up to 27% when he came back for the majors—still below league average, but an improvement. That came with a sacrifice of power. His BABIP slipped, but there was a big reason for Cave opting for singles: his speed score ballooned from 6.2 after a 3.7 in 2021. To put that into context, only Billy Hamilton and Byron Buxton posted faster speeds for Minnesota this season. I repeat: Jake Cave was the third faster player on the Twins this year. Cave was as fast as new-thorn-for-the-next-seven-years Steven Kwan. And when it came to his defense, his arm strength on Baseball Savant skyrocketed from a mediocre 46% to a shocking 79% within the league Most notably, Cave improved when it mattered. "Clutch" is a unique metric, but it measures your chance at Win Probability against the stakes of the plate appearance as compared to your overall season numbers (to say the least, Carlos Correa demonstrated a high win probability, but his Clutch was -0.91 given his problems delivering with runners on base. Let’s just call it a “heart and hustle” stat). Cave was second on the Twins in the second half of the season in Clutch, just shy of Gilberto Celestino. His dozen barrels doubled what he managed last year, and with his speed, he managed a trio of triples. In the second half, Cave posted a better OPS than Gary Sánchez, Celestino, Max Kepler, and Jorge Polanco. He hit about as well as the aging Nelson Cruz did for the Nationals except on a $800k contract that managed a half point of WAR—essentially quadruple his salary. It may have still been frustrating to see Cave batting fifth in a lineup for a playoff contention team, but Cave was hardly the problem given the improvements he demonstrated. With a huge roster crunch in the coming months, it is likely that Cave once again sees himself in a St. Paul Saints uniform unless another team is looking for some depth in the outfield. But unlike previous years, I have to salute a player who hustled his way into an unfortunate situation and did what he could. Update: The Baltimore Orioles have claimed Jake Cave off waivers. For much more Jake Cave content from Twins Daily, click here.