TD Top Twins Prospect Rankings (Post Draft and Trade Deadline): 6-10

When I look at this group, not certain that Cavaco belongs with the other four.  There is a good chance that you have Ryan too low at #7.  And I know that Miranda is too low at #6.  Personally, I would have to think a long time about whether he should be #1 in the organization.  Yes, he doesn't have the speed of Lewis and the hype of Martin, but who in the Twins organization is hitting better?  Who is hitting close to what he is?  I don't follow other organizations, but I doubt there are many others hitting as well as him anywhere in MiLB, especially at AA and AAA.

Yes, the top ten is looking loaded.

Edit: Cavaco's OPS might be .649, but I doubt his SLG is, with 11 XBH in 50 games

Petty was a pretty exciting pick.  I just always get concerned about hard throwers because a lot of them end up needing TJ surgery.  I hope his stuff is good enough to be a fast mover and I liked that the Twins went pitcher with high upside with their first pick. I can't wait to see how he does.

I am very interested to see what Joe Ryan can do.  He doesn't seem to have a traditional 3 pitch mix and throws his fastball a lot which seems like a bad idea at the MLB level these days but he has been very successful to this point so hopefully that continues as he moves up.

I still think Miranda could\should be higher than 6.  I get that he just put it all together but he has sustained it at two levels for almost an entire season so what he has seems pretty real at this point.  I would have him at number 3 behind Lewis only because Lewis has 5 tools and plays up the middle and probably tied or above Martin IMO.  I could go either way.  Martin is more patient and has just as good of contact skills as Miranda with more speed than Miranda but MIranda's Slugging is much higher and he has a good contact rate but is likely stuck at only 2nd, 3rd or 1st so limited defensively whereas Martin could play center and all other infield positions in a pinch.  I just think that if those guys are rated there Miranda should be as well.  I get that Duran, SWR and Balazovich are all pretty special pitchers as well but I still think Miranda should be with the other two hitters at the top.

I also think Cavaco is too high, more on the prove it basis, same as Perry.  Both should be in the 11 - 15 range, though both could move up quickly in 2022.  I am getting to be a little more in ranking prospects factored by how close to the majors are they preforming well.  Many of them will flame out in AAA or the majors, but doing well in AAA or AA really helps. 

The above being said, Perry getting here in 2023 or 2024 would be awesome.

Honestly, not much I disagree with here, either. I think Miranda should be closer to #3 at this point because I do weight on field performance a little heavier than some. I'm definitely wanting the Twins to give starts to Miranda at 3B and it looks strongly to me like they're playing the service time game right now. 

I can see the bullish take on Cavaco as he did have a couple months where the bat started to click a bit and he's had so little playing time.

19 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

 

I can see the bullish take on Cavaco as he did have a couple months where the bat started to click a bit and he's had so little playing time.

Agree on Cavaco as there was a point in the season where he looked like he might be the best hitter on the Fort Myers team but he has really struggled recently. The whole lineup has and they are dropping games like crazy.  Like the article said he is only 20 and this is his first taste of high quality pro ball so there are reasons to cut him some slack.  If he does get the bat working he still has 5 tool potential so I get the higher rating but if the bat never makes it he likely won't make it at all.

36 minutes ago, beckmt said:

The above being said, Perry getting here in 2023 or 2024 would be awesome.

If that is the case and I sure hope it is, the Twins are actually looking like they have an ace type pitcher, because he will be 20 in 23 and 21 in 24.

No the odds of him making it to the majors as a 20 year old is very slim, because it will take three years just to get him up to the 100 innings mark

I can see no reason for Miranda not to get some big league time.  I think that Donaldson's recent injury was a missed opportunity.

Cavaco is too high.  Canterino should be given some Twins starts.

Ryan surprises me.  I want him to come to MN, but what surprised me most is his age.  It is time for him to step up. 

1 hour ago, roger said:

And I know that Miranda is too low at #6.  Personally, I would have to think a long time about whether he should be #1 in the organization.  Yes, he doesn't have the speed of Lewis and the hype of Martin, but who in the Twins organization is hitting better?  Who is hitting close to what he is?  I don't follow other organizations, but I doubt there are many others hitting as well as him anywhere in MiLB, especially at AA and AAA.

Fangraphs has a really good stats filter that lets you combine upper minors performance (AA and AAA) across all minor leaguers.  Check it out here:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&lg=2,4,5,6,7&stats=bat&qual=y&type=1&team=&season=2021&seasonEnd=2021&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=19,1

There's no one else who's still of prospect age and who's had enough plate appearances that has been any better than Miranda.  I'm pretty excited about his future.

I think when you get into the top seven or eight Twins pitching prospects, there's a huge amount of uncertainty. You could put them in just about any order and I'd buy it. How to evaluate Canterino, Duran, Ryan, and Varland's obvious reliever risk? What about the injury risk, especially for Canterino and Duran? Is Winder for real? Is Varland for real? How do we evaluate Balazovic and Woods-Richardson's inconsistency at AA? What will Chase Petty look like when he finally takes the mound as a pro?

I know that there are very few times when a pitching prospect doesn't have some kind of cloud over them. But with the Twins prospects right now, there are just so many different types of guys that it seems very difficult to rank them with any authority.

As for Miranda, he has the best OPS in the minors for someone who is under the age of 25. I agree that ranking systems have been slow to catch up to him. He should be a top 100 prospect.

I'd swap Winder with Cavaco as others have suggested. I'm all about performance.

Personally, I would put Cavaco at 11 and Winder in the top ten. I'm still high on Cavaco but for me, he just needs to show a little bit more actual production to rank him that high. And that's not a knock on him, it's just because the other prospects are so good, too.

Speaking of the top ten, I find it really hard rank them. If you told me about literally any of those guys that he will have the best career of them all, I would have no trouble believing you. 

I hope the Twins can find some space on the 40-man to protect Miranda from the Rule 5 draft this year.

49 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Ryan should be in Minnesota ASAP. While I think he is likely an ok starter.... He might be Joe Nathan..... I don't know what I'd do with him.

Not sure where I read the article but Ryan was saying the balls in the Olympics, were lighter and had better grip and that is what should be used here. I wonder if that will have any effect on him when he pitches here again? 

Pick one: Chase Petty or Josh Winder.

Not one reasonable, objective person would pick Petty.  Maybe in a couple years if everything goes great for Petty after he plays his first year of full-season ball, sure.  Right now he throws hard.

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I can see no reason for Miranda not to get some big league time.  I think that Donaldson's recent injury was a missed opportunity.

Cavaco is too high.  Canterino should be given some Twins starts.

Ryan surprises me.  I want him to come to MN, but what surprised me most is his age.  It is time for him to step up. 

I don't think I'd worry about the age too much for Ryan.  Most people are saying to ignore age right now due to last year's lost season.  I'd say he is on track and potentially ahead of schedule for a 2018 7th round draft pick. This is only his second season and he played for the Olympics.  I agree though that it'd be fun to see him soon at the MLB level.  Probably once the Twins feel he has adapted to the organization?

Love the rankings and IMHO grading them is so speculative that I like reading everyone's opinions.  I just wish that I could watch full minor league games occasionally(somewhere).  Does anyone know of any online sites that stream full games either live or recorded?

8 minutes ago, TwinsAce said:

I don't think I'd worry about the age too much for Ryan.  Most people are saying to ignore age right now due to last year's lost season.  I'd say he is on track and potentially ahead of schedule for a 2018 7th round draft pick. This is only his second season and he played for the Olympics.  I agree though that it'd be fun to see him soon at the MLB level.  Probably once the Twins feel he has adapted to the organization?

At his age I do not want them playing the control game with him.  Bring him in and let him pitch.

Has there been any more details on the failure to sign Birdsell in the draft?  Did they offer over-slot money?  Was he just convinced right away that he wanted to return to college?  If so, why did they select him?

This seemed like a decent spot to ask this question.

34 minutes ago, Heiny said:

Love the rankings and IMHO grading them is so speculative that I like reading everyone's opinions.  I just wish that I could watch full minor league games occasionally(somewhere).  Does anyone know of any online sites that stream full games either live or recorded?

 

If you want it enough to pay for it, milb dot tv is not unreasonably priced.

Good question by Steve71 about Birdsell. He was the Twins first pick on day 3 of the draft. They had plenty of time to check in with different players who would likely be available for selection when their turn to pick arrived. It would surprise me if they selected someone whom they had not been in contact with, someone whom they thought was uncertain about signing if selected. Maybe they just took a shot in the dark by selecting him, but if that was the case, that is not a great approach. 

33 minutes ago, Steve71 said:

Has there been any more details on the failure to sign Birdsell in the draft?  Did they offer over-slot money?  Was he just convinced right away that he wanted to return to college?  If so, why did they select him?

This seemed like a decent spot to ask this question.

Not uncommon for a guy with 2 years of college eligibility drafted in the 11th round to bet on a comeback and a much higher draft position later. MLB doesn't even list a slot value for 11th rounders which I could find. With Birdsell having been shut down due to a rotator cuff injury, I'm sure the Twins weren't going to offer a ton of money.

50 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Not uncommon for a guy with 2 years of college eligibility drafted in the 11th round to bet on a comeback and a much higher draft position later. MLB doesn't even list a slot value for 11th rounders which I could find. With Birdsell having been shut down due to a rotator cuff injury, I'm sure the Twins weren't going to offer a ton of money.

Yes to all that, but also, the absence of a slot value in the 11th round is exactly why teams will try to offer a bit more $ to get a better player there. Since the slot values only go through 10 rounds, signings after the 10th only count against overall bonus pools and aren't "over slot" per se, so teams will try to get perceived higher-upside players who are still left at that point and offer higher bonuses than in the previous few rounds. But it does make sense that there would be more risk of not agreeing on an amount with that strategy, and with earlier picks affecting how much pool money is left.

1 hour ago, Heiny said:

Love the rankings and IMHO grading them is so speculative that I like reading everyone's opinions.  I just wish that I could watch full minor league games occasionally(somewhere).  Does anyone know of any online sites that stream full games either live or recorded?

 

You can watch nearly every MiLB game on MiLB baseball.  An annual subscription is $39 and I believe every one of the Twins four clubs has all their games televised.  Need a smart tv to get the internet connection...I think.  Also could be watched on your computer.