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Winder, a right-hander whom the Twins’ selected with their 7th round pick during the 2018 draft out of the Virginia Military Institute, stands at a robust 6’5” with an athletic 210 pound frame. A quick worker on the mound, Winder possesses a smooth, repeatable motion and utilizes a three-quarter arm slot for every pitch in his arsenal. He’s a traditional four-pitch pitcher and primarily relied on his 4-seam fastball up in the zone to get ahead in the count before unleashing a bevy of sliders, curveballs, and changeups to keep batters on their toes.
His fastball sat 94-96 mph for the majority of his season — which he split between Double- (54 2/3 innings) and Triple-A (17 1/3 innings) — before tailing off to 91-96 mph by the end of the season. (Of note: He did not appear in another game after his start on July 21 due to right shoulder impingement/fatigue.)
Winder’s slider typically sat in the mid-80s and featured a sharp downward break in the 1-to-7 o’clock direction. It played well off of his fastball, flying towards the plate in the same tunnel when his command was on.
However, it was arguably the concurrent development of his changeup and fastball that leveled up Winder from a mid-tier prospect to inside the Twins’ top 10. Winder’s average fastball velocity increased from the low-90s during his college days into the mid-90s, which caused a greater differential between the speed of his heater and off-speed stuff.
Winder, who turned 25 years old this past October, excelled at Double-A Wichita (2.84 FIP, 31.3% K rate, 4.8% BB rate, 0.82 HR/9), which resulted in a late-June promotion to Triple-A St. Paul and an appearance in the 2021 Futures Game during the All-Star break. However, after a dominant debut in which he struck out eight Omaha hitters and allowed only one run in 5 2/3 innings, Winder struggled during his final three starts, serving up four home runs, allowing eight earned runs, and striking out only seven in 11 2/3 innings.
Winder’s downtick in performance was due to both a loss of velocity across his arsenal as well as iffy command, both of which were likely the result of his shoulder injury. However, even prior to being shut down, Winder’s command was no better than average at best. Although he rarely issues free passes (i.e. he has good control, always pitching in or near the strike zone), his ability to place the ball where he wants, particularly with his curveball, requires more seasoning.
All told, Winder likely projects as a starter at the MLB-level and possesses the ceiling of a No. 3 pitcher on a playoff caliber team. As with any pitcher, however, his health, strikeout rate, and home run rate will play key roles in determining if he ever reaches his apex. There is a lot to like about Winder’s game, and while the comparison is far from perfect, it’s possible that he has a similar career to that of former Twin Scott Baker.
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