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  • Not Good? Be Interesting (Twins Pitching)


    Ted Schwerzler

    A selloff is coming for the 2021 Minnesota Twins, and that's in large part because they've been a bad baseball team. To capitalize on being interesting down the stretch, there's some names that belong on the bump.

    Image courtesy of © Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

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    Rocco Baldelli came into this season expecting to compete for a third straight division title. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, that reality isn’t going to play out. The second half now should be about evaluation for Minnesota. As 40-man and 26-man roster spots open up, it will be imperative for the Twins to look at fresh faces and see what they have.

    On the pitching side, here are some names to consider:


    Before individual deep dives, I think the trio of Josh Winder, Jordan Balazovic, and Cole Sands all fit here. Winder needs to debut, having already made his way to Triple-A. I can understand not starting the clock on Balazovic and Sands missed time due to injury. Of the names in this article, though, these are all the premier prospect types. There's also the recent call ups and guys with little time that need extended run. Throw Bailey Ober, Griffin Jax, and now Charlie Barnes into this category. Randy Dobnak and Lewis Thorpe (when healthy) would join them as well.

    Beau Burrows


    A former first-round pick and solid prospect for the Tigers, Burrows is now a reclamation project for the Twins. He was blown up in his Major League debut, and he was awful at Triple-A Toledo. Still just 24, Burrows is the exact type of prospect a team like the Twins should be taking a flier on. Strikeouts haven’t ever followed him in large quantities, but a new development infrastructure could bear fruit. He’ll need to accumulate a more substantial sample size at Triple-A St. Paul before getting a call but putting him out there with a tweaked repertoire may make for an interesting acquisition.


    Yennier Cano


    Signed by Minnesota back in 2019, Cano is now 27 and not a prospect. He was slow-played but has finally made his way to Triple-A St. Paul. The stuff has been legit at each professional level, and he’s currently rocking a 2.37 ERA across 30 1/3 innings between Double and Triple-A this season. With a 12.5 K/9 and just a 3.3 BB/9, that’s shaping up like an arm both Wes Johnson and Rocco Baldelli could utilize in relief. There’s not much reason to continue holding him back at this point, and Cano could resemble a late-blooming pen arm.


    Ian Hamilton


    Having been through injury, a car accident, and many hurdles halting his big league career, Hamilton is one of the few waiver claims from this winter that hasn’t shown up in Minnesota. He owns a 1.08 ERA across 25 innings for the Saints, but it comes with a gaudy 18 walks. The strikeouts are there (35), and he’s allowed just three homers which have helped limit the damage. With a high-velocity fastball, this is an arm the Twins need to take a look at before allowing him a new landing spot in 2022.


    Hector Lujan


    A 35th round pick back in 2016, Lujan has earned every single opportunity he’s been provided in pro ball. Now at Double-A Wichita, the 26-year-old owns a 2.49 ERA in 25 1/3 innings. His strikeout numbers are modest by today’s standards, but he’s been tremendous at limiting free passes (1.8 career BB/9). He pitched at Double-A back in 2019 and should already be getting run for the Saints. Maybe there isn’t a ton of upside here, but there’s also a seemingly safe floor that could factor in as a nice middle relief piece.


    Ryan Mason


    Picked in the 13th round of the 2016 draft, Mason has consistently climbed the ladder for the Twins. He’s at Double-A now and has compiled a 2.67 ERA in 30 1/3 innings. It’s been time for a promotion to Triple-A, and the 4.2 BB/9 in 2021 is uncharacteristic for a guy with a 1.9 BB/9 career mark. He gets his strikeouts, and Mason has never had an ERA north of 2.77 as a reliever. He’ll be 27 in 2022 and is already well above the average age of his current level. You’re probably not getting a high leverage guy here, but there’s no reason Mason can’t be seen as a middle innings gap guy.


    Jovani Moran


    Drafted out of school in Puerto Rico back in 2015, Moran is now 24 and playing at Double-A Wichita. It’s his second turn through the level, and he’s been dominant with a 1.91 ERA across 37 2/3 innings. He’s striking out over 15 batters per nine, and the career 4.1 BB/9 is workable in relief. Moran should get a bump to Triple-A in short order, and with some final tweaks, it could be a nice success story through a longer progression for the Twins.


    Chris Vallimont


    Minnesota acquired Vallimont alongside Sergio Romo back in 2019. He was a former 5th round draft pick and is now 24 at Double-A. The strikeout stuff has always been good, and while the walks are higher than you’d like for a starter, he’s done well to avoid damage. Vallimont owns a 3.96 ERA for Wichita this year, and despite throwing less than 40 innings, a promotion to Triple-A could make sense soon. Maybe he debuts in the bullpen for Minnesota, but I think this is an arm you’d like to see get some big-league run.

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    I don't have a lot of faith that Beau Burrows is going to be any better for the Twins.  He is on the 40 man so giving him a shot can't hurt but he doesn't look like a long term solution anywhere to me.

    When they have room they should add Cano your analysis is spot on.  He is 27 has been having success and has multiple pitches.  He has a chance to make it so would be good to get him some experience and see what he can do.

    I really liked the Hamilton pickup when they made it but he was pretty hittable when they tried him out this spring.  His AAA numbers are impressive except for the walks.  He is not currently on the 40 man but he is another arm that I would like to see get a chance.

    I have always been intrigued by Mason.  Hard to say if his stuff would translate but I agree with the OP that it would be nice to see what he can do given the chance.

    Absolutely want to see what Jovani Moran can do in MLB.  I am worried his fastball is too hittable but if he can work through that he would be a great setup man.  I have been watching him for a looong time so would really like to see him make it.

    Vallimont likely needs to be added to the 40 man at the end of the year so if they can find a way to sneak him in and get some experience I am all for it.  I still queation his control as he has this tendency to walk multiple guys and not even be close to the strike zone.  Not sure what his deal is sometimes but then he has this ability to almost K guys at will.  Hopefully he gets things under control and can be a piece of the future.

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    Jettison the deadwood - get rid of those who have shown themselves to be mediocre or worse.  Send them packing.  Bring in the new arms, put them out there to prove or disprove.  Time to start moving on.  I am still wondering what it benefits the team to have another start by Happ?

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    I personally think the signings of Happ and Shoemaker were the nails that put the twins in the coffin this year.  I think they need to see what these youngsters have, I mean they already know that they can compete in the minors, so bring them up and let them make a few starts this year and see what they bring to the table.  Then in the off season they need to sign one real good pitcher to go with Berrios and Maeda, to make a quality top 3 and then let these guys like Balazovic, and Duran, and Dobnak, etc.... All compete for the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation.  Obviously you'll need a 6th and probably 7th too along with a bullpen.  But let's see what these kids can do now, I definitely agree.

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    How crazy is this season that I want Farrell to get healthy to prove he's worth maybe keeping around?

    I think, unfortunately, that its time for a healthy Thorpe to just transition to the pen full time and see what he can do. Might be good. But he's got to be healthy first. 

    Winder is just about ready for his ML debut and take lumps if necessary. Barnes gets a deserved shot, but really? Get Winder up after a few more "adjustment" starts.

    IF Duran is OK health wise soon, he also needs a shot! Getting your feet wet is important, whether you look great or mediocre. It's part of the process.

    Not going to lie, I just didn't see Balazovic being THIS GOOD THIS SOON after starting the season late. Get him to AAA SOON! 

    Get Sands to St Paul as well. For some reason he's been a forgotten SP prospect. He shouldn't be.

    Vallimont, IMO, was an absolute steal. But he missed early time this season. He has stuff to work on. But we also see a lot of good thing, He's not a fast track to the ML level, but get him to St Paul ASAP,  Really,  what journeyman would you want to keep over him?

    Jax has a shot as a middle man unless he surprises at some point, it's just too bad he had to wait so long to be a full time pro. 

    I think Dobnak, healthy, still has a real shot.

    I have been so surprised by Ober! I see so much potential if just allowed to learn and grow in a lost season, I get monitoring his IP, but I've seen enough to know I want to see more. I think this kid has a real shot to be at least a backend SP.

    Canterino should never have been at A+ but I guess the Twins were being conservative early,  He comes back soon, get him some IP and move him up ASAP!

    So far, right now, injuries have been a big bite for a lot of our pitching prospects. The good news is that, so far, oniy Enlow is out. Seems that everyone else is back or nearly back. Let's keep hoping for the best!

    You can't just promote every single pitcher you want to as a finish to 2021. MLB, in it's "wisdom" decided you can only bring up a couple extra additions. BUT, with trades and the such, there shoukd be a few more open spots to promote and audition at least a few arms.

    Baseball has changed in regard to the value of RP. And a bullpen doesn't have to be made up of converted SP exclusively. If there is room, and there may be, get a couple of the milb arms up for a shot. At worse, get Neff, Moran and others at least to St Paul to get ready for the future. 

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    Spot on Doc !  They need to start matriculating these arms up the ladder in their system.  "Arms" are funny things.  Some can throw for years and years, and some burn out relatively early.  I'm of the philosophy that a pitcher doesn't need to be "completely" polished before you move him up to the big team.  Blyleven wasn't completely polished when the Twins called him up in 1970.  Neither was Don Sutton for the Dodgers in 1966 or Jim Palmer in 1966 for the Orioles.  Those are 3 HOF'ers who "made it" so I know I'm being biased.  (none of them were Eddie Bane).  But sometimes you have to just pull the trigger and stop worrying about "perfection."  

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    I agree with the moving up. I also acknowledge that it can take a lot of starts and innings of overall struggle for a pitcher to reach their potential. It is hard for a team expecting to content to devote those innings. Instead they often turn to veterans. In most cases the floor for those veterans is a better outcome. This year was the exception. It can lead to a cycle of never building that foundation though as every year you need to find those veterans.

    How many here want to trade for a 23 year old in AA and wait four or five years? That was the Indians and Kluber. The acquired him in 2009. He really struggled in 2011 and 2012. He wasn’t anything special in 2013 but he was giving them what the Twins might have hoped from a Happ or Hill. He was an ace the next 5 years.

    How many here would trade for a good 22 year old prospect and then wait out a 5.29 ERA spread out over 5 years from ages 22 to 26? That was the Indians and Carlos Carrasco. He bounced back and forth to the majors from 2009 to 2013 with little success. In 2014 most of his appearances were from the bullpen. He was a valuable member of the rotation the next 5 years.

    Would we keep investing starts in a top prospect who begins their career 18-24 with a 4.50 ERA (64 starts over 4 years) and leads the league in walks in their fourth year? The Indians traded for Bauer in 2013 and waited 5 years and 729 innings before getting his first season with an ERA under 4. Are we ready to invest 700+ innings into a pitcher?

    The Rays didn’t have to wait that long for Glasnow. They picked up what appeared to be a failed prospect from the Pirates who were unwilling to wait after three years and 91 walks in 141 innings. How excited are we going to be acquiring a pitcher whose ERA as a starter was over 7 the previous two seasons?

    How long should we expect to wait after this year before getting payoff from the prospects in the trade? Has it already been too long a wait from the 2018 trades?

    I am willing to wait it out to build that foundation. I want those 4th and 5th spots to go to their prospects. Last year I advocated for struggling with Thorpe, Smeltzer and Dobnak rather than Hill and Bailey. I would have continued to struggle with Romero a few years back. I would plan to give starts to young pitchers in the 4 and 5 spots next year and I would expect them to struggle and risking the possibility of the playoffs. I would expect struggle in 2023 also. I just don’t see any other way for a mid to small market team to build the foundation of a pitching staff.

     

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    When you are a contending team, you go with experience but we are not a contending team right now so we need to evaluate some other prospects to see who can help going forward. The trouble is that we have let go some people that maybe we should have kept and those who we have are not doing the job or have not been coached or evaluated properly. While I still do not believe we are as bad as our record shows, the team management has some hard decisions moving forward. Probably only 1 or 2 of those mentioned in this article will ever succeed at the ML level. If we can pick those out, it will certainly benefit us later on.  

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