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Look, I understand why Baldelli would have built up some confidence in Polanco's offensive abilities. During Rocco's first few months as manager of the Twins, Jorge was a monster. Through the end of May in 2019, he was slashing .338/.409/.590, which consequentially earned him a starting nod on the All-Star team.
That's absolutely the kind of guy you want near the top of your lineup.
Since then, however, Polanco has been a completely average hitter. Even that description might be generous. In 164 games since June 1st, 2019, he has a .260/.313/.393 slash line and .303 wOBA. In his career prior to 2019, he slashed .272/.329/.420 with a .323 wOBA, which is better of course but still not by any means exceptional.
Not the kind of guy you want near the top of your lineup.
And yet.
Here's the number of times Rocco Baldelli, in 232 regular-season games at the helm, has ever batted Jorge Polanco anywhere below fourth in the lineup: seven. They all came at the end of last year, when a blatantly-hobbled Polanco finally hit sixth (3x), seventh (3x) and eighth (1x) in Baldelli's lineups in the final weeks. Jorge also batted seventh in both playoff games, and went 1-for-7 with a single.
It appeared perhaps Baldelli's long-standing faith in Polanco as a hitter was wavering. But this year, following another offseason ankle surgery, the confidence is apparently restored. Polanco's batted second (5x), first (2x), fourth (2x) or third (1x) in every game so far, and has yet to sit one out. (Granted he was scheduled to do so on Monday before the postponement.) As a result of hitting so frequently and highly in a very productive offense, Polanco entered this week leading the American League in at-bats.
Meanwhile, he has shown no signs of rebounding from a dismal 2020 campaign. Polanco looks terrible at the plate. He's slashing a miserable .119/.191/.167 and the advanced metrics back up the brutal results.
An accumulating preponderance of evidence suggests that Polanco is a mediocre hitter who belongs near the bottom of the Twins lineup, much like Andrelton Simmons (who, by the way .268/.334/.348 with a .301 wOBA since 6/1/2019 – almost identical to Polanco).
A couple of things bear noting here. One is that Baldelli had Polanco lined up to bat fifth on Tuesday before Nelson Cruz pulled out pre-game due to illness. That's still a pretty critical spot, hitting behind Cruz and Mitch Garver against a lefty, but it's further down than a healthy Polanco has ever batted under Baldelli. So maybe we're seeing some slight signs of diminishing faith.
There's also the fact that injuries and poor performance have led to a lack of competition for Polanco at these key spots. But Josh Donaldson is about to return from the Injured List, and I believe Baldelli will soon start finding it hard to place Luis Arraez at the bottom of the order even against left-handers.
In the near future, one longstanding pattern is going to have to snap: either Polanco will prove he's a far better hitter than he's shown over the past season's worth of games, or Baldelli will need to stop operating as if he is.
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