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Projected Starter: Miguel Sanó
Likely Backup: Alex Kirilloff
Depth: Curtis Terry, José Miranda
Prospects: Aaron Sabato
THE GOOD
Miguel Sanó is capable of putting forth production that would make him a prototypical slugging first baseman. We saw it in 2017, and in 2019, and at times last year. After shaking off a rough first two months in 2021, Sanó slashed .246/.325/.493 with 21 homers in 97 games starting on June 1st.
He continues to hit the ball as hard as anyone in baseball, ranking in the 97th percentile for average exit velocity, 98th in max EV, 99th in hard-hit percentage, and 97th in barrel percentage. That's a guy who intimidates not only opposing pitchers, but also everyone around the infield who might get a drive sent their way.
Sanó rebounded somewhat from a disappointing shortened 2020 campaign, although his overall numbers still left something to be desired – especially the .223 average and .312 on-base percentage.
The 28-year-old hasn't since come close to replicating his 15.8% walk rate and .385 OBP as a rookie in 2015. Rediscovering a sense of selectiveness and discipline at the plate – sustainably, rather than in sporadic bursts – holds the key to resuscitating his dormant potential.
If you've given up on that ability ever showing through again, I don't blame you. It's been a rough go. But as his batted-ball metrics illustrate, he still has it within him to be a dominant power hitter if he can rein in the strike zone control. And Sanó is now more fundamentally motivated than ever to do so.
Pending a $14 million team option for 2023, he's due for free agency after this season, and as things currently stand Sanó will struggle to drive a market for his services. He could alter that outlook significantly with a season that harkens back to 2019, when he posted a .923 OPS with 34 home runs and 2.8 fWAR in just 105 games.
This is a career-defining season for him, which helps explain why he openly committed to getting in better shape during the offseason. He looks pretty good physically in camp, but of course, the proof will be in the pudding.
If Sanó can get back to the level of hitting we know he's capable of, he'll become a stellar complement to Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and (maybe) Gary Sánchez as standout righty power bats in the lineup. If Sanó falls back into one of this familiar ruts, the Twins may accelerate their plan to move on and entrench Kirilloff at first base, given the lack of future commitment.
It's a nice fallback to have available, because Kirilloff clearly has enough bat for the position and his defense looked terrific there during brief glimpses last year.
THE BAD
The Twins were already in the process of writing Sanó out of their plans last summer. He'd essentially been demoted to part-time player status by June, with Kirilloff drawing regular starts at first as the team's clearly preferred option.
From June 18th through July 18th, Sanó started 12 of Minnesota’s 24 games, including just nine at first base. Then Kirilloff underwent wrist surgery, and Sanó regained the starting first base job by default. To his credit, he made the most of it, slashing .250/.346/.504 from the date of Kirilloff's surgery to the end of the season. That's nearly identical to the line he put forth during an All-Star 2017 campaign (.264/.352/.507).
It's unclear Sanó can afford another start like he got off to in 2021, when he slashed .141/.295/.256 through mid-May while the team tanked into an inescapable early hole. As things stand, however, the Twins need Kirilloff in left field. Maybe Trevor Larnach re-establishes himself to negate that need, or the Twins add another veteran outfielder, but right now they're somewhat reliant on Sanó at first.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The long-term outlook at this position is strong with Kirilloff waiting in the wings, but for now things are in flux. Will Sanó shake off his consistency struggles of the past two seasons and reaffirm his status as a cornerstone for the Twins? Doing so would not only give him a chance to hang on at first base this year, but also potentially extend his tenure with the club for another year (perhaps as a DH?).
If not, we may be reaching the end of the road for Sanó and Minnesota, and dawning a new era at first base.
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