There's No Easy Way Out of This for the Minnesota Twins

Lots of work to do.  The important thing is for them to begin it today.  And that starts with the FO understanding this season is over and making decisions with that in mind.

Falvine is supposed to be excellent at pitcher development  Its time for some pitchers to develop. .

1 hour ago, Thegrin said:

Falvine is supposed to be excellent at pitcher development  Its time for some pitchers to develop. .

Excellent point.  Time to see results.  Will be very interested to see what decisions are made over the next 6 weeks.  Duran should be promoted within the next 2 weeks to take Shoemaker's spot.  Promotion of Josh Winder from Wichita to St. Paul also, imo, should happen within the next month (or earlier).  I'll be very interested to see how Balazovic performs tonight in his 1st start for Wind Surge.  

Trading every available bit of current mlb talent for prospects and rushing that prospect to the big leagues is not a good plan .  IMO

How many years have the Twins had a top rated farm system?  Getting the talent to an above average with consistency major league level is not. So are they wrong in talent evaluation or development?

The Twins spent big this year, at least for them, thinking they had a good team.  I suspect they will do what they can to move salaries for Happ, Simmons and Cruz.  That would allow them to recoup some of the money invested.  Most of the players on this team are so bad though they have little to no trade value (i.e. Colome, Robles, Shoemaker) so I don't see them getting any prospects that help that much back unless they are willing to trade guys that have more years left.  They probably don't want to trade Jose thinking they can try and fix the rotation in the offseason and they have to hope one or two of their young pitchers will look ready to start next year they just won't want starting pithing to be too bare heading into the offseason.  I don't think they will get a return for Buxton that they like enough to move him either so I doubt we get much out of this season other than heart ache.

If they can't work the trade angle then they are pretty much stuck with what they have on the farm.  Their two top rated pitchers Duran and Balazovich  don't look ready now maybe by the end of the season.  Their two best hitters Larnach and Kirilloff are already essentially a part of the MLB team but the only potential elite hitter behind them is Miranda.  If you squint you can say Rooker, Celestino and Palacios but they all seem more like they might be replacement level players than elite players.  Anyone else looks years away and honestly it doesn't feel like they have elite hitters in the system anymore, more like guys that hit the ball hard and K a lot, they are mostly slow players as well.  Unless guys suddenly perform at extremely high levels the system doesn't look all that great to me unless some of those international signings come through for them.

On the Pitching side there seems like lot's of options as there are several prospects who are performing well.  Most all the guys they have coming up are hard throwers and have good K rates.  With all the pitching coming up they might be OK in that area but to this point no one they have picked has made it other than Dobnak and he hasn't been that great this year.  So we have no idea if any of those guys will have what it takes to make it.  They have had several guys try (i.e. Thorpe, Smeltzer, Dobnak etc) but they all have faltered and barely can be called 5th starters.

This way this team is constructed right now reminds me of the old White Sox.  A team who generally managed to be average to slightly below average every year despite having some elite players just not enough to make a difference.  Unless the Twins can make some moves to move the needle I think the mediocrity is likely here to stay.

So hit and miss on high draft picks. For every Denard Span or Ben Revere there is a BJ Garbe or Matt Moses. Tyler Jay, Kohl Stewart, Carlos Gutierrez, Ryan Mills.

Sometimes you get Matt Garza or Kyle Gibson, or you get Adam Johnson or Kyle Waldrop.

Of course development is the key. And the best players in AAA and AA ball are often the backend players on a major league roster, when the need arrives, because they can be plugged in to play the game for a year or three.

Such a juggling act. The Twins could open their 2021 roster for prospect tryouts, but the players getting the call would have to be those needing protection for the 2022 season. You don't promote someone really not ready to even get a consideration in 2022 if you may be forced to replace them with others who might be showing a spark of life.

Yet you can't have 15 spots on the 40-man held by guys who are just minor league guys. Except for this season, Celestino never would've gotten the call...and he is going on year two. You can argue about the two remaining players on the 40-man who have not seen major league action that they are preventing you from signing minor free agents (or cut players) and that they probably wouldn't see action if the team was winning. With the current Twins, they will get the chance before the season is done. But are they up to the task for 2022, and can a roster full of prospects improve the Twins chances of winning in 2022.

I believe the Twins have a slightly better than .500 roster this season...if they were healthy. Gotta admit the injuries have been brutal. Then add to that, most all the big dollar acquisitions are 'enjoying' maybe a career worst season. And top it off with even the ones the Twins rely on, when healthy, are all under-performing. Its a perfect storm of failure. So it might be hard to know if this really is a 'bad team'. Would be nice to see their 'A' lineup playing together for a span of a month to see what they have.

Try to imagine what a healthy Buxton might add to this ballclub. So far, we have never enjoyed that luxury. He just can't stay on the field.  Imagine what we expected from Kepler, that we aren't getting. Donaldson, Simmons, Arraez. Sano. Recently Polanco and Garver were stepping up...but now Garver is lost for several weeks.

Did we really think our pen was going to be this awful...night in and night out? Did we expect the starters to win accolades when they were able to get thru 5 innings?

One guy I won't 'blame' is Cruz. Father Time is running alongside him this season. Don't know how much more we can squeeze out of him. Baseball draft picks don't have the same weight as hockey or football. Expecting great things from grabbing a prospect/suspect isn't 'all that' in baseball.

Hindsight is always perfect 20/20 so I think a good deal of perspective needs to be taken in discussions like this and future ones that will take place in the future. Call me foolish or overly optimistic, but I felt this was a legitimate 94-95 win team that MIGHT be a few games better thzn that if a Shoemaker, Robles and a couple others stepped up. (At least for the first half when some additional talent would/might be ready for the second half). I NEVER saw this many injuries or virtually the entire team getting off to such a poor start.

But it is time to cease finger pointing and blame and "whoa is us as fans" complaints and address tomorrow, and the days after that.

This team, as constructed, has holes to be sure. And it reminds me a lot of 2018 when it felt like the Twins were ready to turn a corner before a poor '18 slide. But the nucleus of that team was in place for the 2019 and 2020 seasons. And most of those guys are still here, and still under 30yrs old. And while there are questions, serious questions in some cases, I don't believe these players have suddenly quit caring, quit trying, or suddenly lost their ability to play baseball. I hate to say it because it will come off like a poor excuse, but sometimes s**t happens. Guys get hurt. Guys have a bad start, or a bad year. Sometimes a FO, even a smart and successful one, put a plan together and it JUST DOESN'T WORK, even if it looks generally good on paper.

What was CLEARLY supposed to happen, IMO, was a very solid team with a few question marks, that was preparing to win/contend while still having the luxury of re-tooling some on the fly. For example: a healthy Shoemaker being solid for the first half as a back end SP and Duran being ready to step in later. Example: multiple arms, some signed and some prospects, doing what we saw in both '19 and '20 and filling in/being promoted when called on. Example: Kirilloff ready for daily duty, or nearly ready, and Larnach to follow later in the year and Rooker building on his milb performance and SSS in '20 before injury robbed him of finishing the year, as a solid role player.

These are just a few examples of how this team was built and how things were supposed to go, more or less.

But to "blow up" and re-build a team with so many under 30yr old players who just brought in back to back ALC  divisions is foolhardy as well as short-sighted. And I'm NOT saying to NOT trade or promote and audition. But to just dump guys tomorrow is a little silly as someone has to play the field and take the mound. The milb season started late, in case you forgot. As 2021 luck would have it, two of our top SP prospects had a delayed start. A kid who might already be in the pen, Colina, may be out for most of the year. Lewis is definitely out for the year.

But yes, very soon, they will need to move some expiring contracts and get what you can for them, whether it be a decent A flier or maybe a potential bullpen arm at AA on the rise. 

5yrs in, barely, and we want to complain about the system producing or not producing....forgetting the past 2yrs and injuries...Kirilloff and Larnach aren't going anywhere. We've seen what Jeffers might become, though he was pushed a bit. Rortvedt and Celistino, also pushed, are getting their feet wet. So has Ober and now Jax. Duran has only 3 or 4 starts so far, but could be ready by July. Winder has looked great as has Canterino. Both should be ready for promotions soon. Same with Miranda. And these are just kids at the upper levels who could all be ready soon. Hopefully sooner rather than later. 

Financially speaking, an actual full year of "normal" baseball helps the team's pocketbook. There will be expiring contracts, some traded, to allow for additional trade or FA signings next year to re-tool the roster. (Though there are a couple potential extensions to still consider). But any tanking idea or dismantling of the roster, despite 2021, is just naive.

The Twins need to promote and audition in a lost season. They need to cut bait here and there to be sure. But as a whole what the roster needs is a re-tooling, not a re-build. The problem is said re-tooling was supposed to take place during a very different 2021 and the off season and not begin now.

The window has closed. This is the White Sox division. They White Sox lost some key players to injuries but have the depth to win games. I don’t think the 2022 Twins can come close to matching them. 
 

The Twins the oldest average pitching age in the AL and the batters are older than league average. If they don’t retool the greatest likelihood is a team that might be competitive in 2002 but not a contender. After losing Buxton, Berrios and Rogers 2023 seems pretty dismal. 
 

Trade anyone who they can’t extend on the team for 2023. They also should look to move Garver, Donaldson and Maeda. 

4 hours ago, ashbury said:

The steady drip-drip-drip of a losing season may be only vaguely registering; but when there are headlines in the straight news section of the paper that the nearest team is trading off their assets, the tour buses may stop rolling in from points south and west of the cities.

There are already headlines in the papers of Minneapolis every day to slow the roll of tour buses into this city. A bad baseball team is just another one. At this point, It’s highly likely the rebound in 2021 attendance will be plenty muted. How severe and how the organization responds...we’ll see.

I would go with no development.   They keep them in the minors far too long while dumpster diving hoping for a miracle.

Correct, there is no easy way out. Trading players in their walk year for nothing is a waste. If the Twins thought their team was built to win, they need to roll to July 30th to see what the schedule has dealt them this year. Watching this team, listening to the radio for this team is a struggle. Everything is off. 

To some degree I would parrot what Doc Bauer has written. I too thought the Twins could win 90-92 games. I disagreed with the choices for the bullpen and pitching and wanted some more aggressive off-season moves. However, the team looked competitive and I found myself listening to the game again today and wondering if there might be a run or two in this team in the next 48 games. Nobody is going to gamble a real prospect in early June for any Twins player, but crazy things can happen at the trade deadline. In the meantime sixty years of following the Twins has taught me to keep things in perspective and relax. I'm still hoping they can play some good baseball this summer and am hoping for improved fundamentals in the field, on the bases, contact at the plate when called for, and more competitive pitching. Today seemed like a start, even with the problems that need to be eliminated. I'm hoping for better in a season where comparisons to Ron Davis emerged and that was a really low point in Twins history. Playing better baseball is the only way out.

9 hours ago, Thegrin said:

Falvine is supposed to be excellent at pitcher development  Its time for some pitchers to develop. .

This statement appears to miss the point of the article.

7 hours ago, ashbury said:

... the tour buses may stop rolling in from points south and west of the cities

The stink on the field in the late '70s and early '80s did not prevent me from going to the Met and the Hump.

9 hours ago, ashbury said:

I would sharpen up the terminology to suggest being elite in talent evaluation, and the acquisition part will follow.

I was trying to figure out how Tampa remains so competitive, and I believe this is a big part of it.

The article references the Cubs success. They were successful because they had Theo Epstein who had built the Red Son into champions and did the same with the Cubs. The Reds have good hitters and the Tigers good pitchers that bode well for their future. The Twins have a few good pieces (Berrios, Maeda and Buxton) but must keep them healthy. I would not trade Simmons or Rogers or even Robles who seems to be straightened out. Polanco, Garver, Kiriloff, Larnach and Rooker and Garrick are the future and Duffy and maybe Alcala can help. Gordon has had a nice start and Lewis is a possibility. Cruz and Donaldson and maybe Pineda (if we really want to trade him) should net us a prospect or two at the deadline. Kepler can get us some value as well. I figured he would go to the Yankees but he's not healthy right now. Sano is a big question mark as far as value goes. The rest are not going to get us much at all. It was a crap shoot with Shoemaker and we had to figure Happ as a stopgap until the prospects were "ready" (I hate that word). Colombe has been a disaster but has experience so maybe someone can give us a prospect for him. So we have to build but not totally tear down (IMHO).

20 hours ago, ashbury said:

You could make that assumption in some markets, but my impression of the Twin Cities is that the fans are willfully punitive - "I'll withhold my support, THAT'LL help 'em to get better."  

The people who say that are the same people that say things like "I paid for Target Field. I built it with my tax dollars".  There's a delusion of grandeur in statements like that which inflate the importance of their own individual actions. I guess it gives people a sense of power over something they know they can't control? Would be an interesting psychological/philosophical study. Anyway, I've always found those takes bizarre.

The tanking the Astros did was not just about getting top picks.  They also were able to get top international signing money, and was savvy in the drafting of getting guys in draft at above slot money by saving in other areas.  They also messed up in their drafts as you mentioned. 

I am not a fan of "tanking" mainly because that is not entertaining baseball either.  However, what it also allowed was to load up on prospects of a similar age to all hit peaks at same time, like what KC did to win their ship.  You are able to decide who will help, and then supplement by trading your other prospects. 

The thing is, you can never just put the "best" talent on the field and expect to win.  You still need to have them perform.  The best franchises normally have good systems and good development to keep rotating talent in.  In baseball you can never count on a number 1 pick to carry your franchise for years.  

Even the Angels, who have had the best player by far for years still never make the playoffs.  In part because they were over paying older vets, which meant they may have passed on better players because of the money they were paying the older players.  Even teams that can afford bad contracts still do not want to pay a guy to not play.  The Angels have failed to develop much talent, pitching mainly, over the years.  They would keep going out and signing the top guy for the FA, but those guys were not always worth the money.  They never really develop talent. 

Tanking will not get the job done, but there is something to be said with keeping your talents on the same timelines so they peak together.  However, some will want the talent to overlap so you never have very lean years.  

Great article, Tom! Something that needed to be addressed. Tanking isn't necessarily an answer. Like you said wise trade acquisitions, development and evaluation are essential, couldn't agree with you more.

Just expanding some more evaluation. We need to better prioritize what's really is important, to see real opportunities and take advantage of them. Not blinding ourselves with wrong mindsets.

We are a team that was a couple of pieces away from going to the big dance. But these wrong mindsets, kept us from opportunities which kept us from winning games which put us in this big hole.

I had great expectations for this team. There have been and still will be great deals out there but now we are not in the position to take advantage of them. Instead we'll be handing out great deals with a 40 man that can't even handle our current prospects.

The solutions are not easy and need to be drastic. If not addressed don't ever expect a different outcome