Don't You... Forget About AK

Eddie Rosario’s postseason heroics for the Atlanta Braves remind fans of similar electric moments he provided for years as a Twin. Rosario’s vintage game two in the ALCS, where he wreaked havoc on the base paths, made a leaping play in left and walked off Kenley Jansen, was tabbed by Twins fans long before Sunday as The Eddie Rosario Experience™.

The Experience carries clear positives, many of which were on display Sunday night. But his downfalls as a player - a lack of plate discipline chief among them - ultimately drove the Twins to non-tender him last winter rather than pay an estimated $10 million in his final year of arbitration. 

An equally-strong force was the emergence of Alex Kirilloff, the Twins’ top prospect who destroyed the minors in 2018 and charged his way up the rankings as a potential elite left-handed outfielder. While unproven, Kirilloff’s track record was sterling outside of a rough start in 2019 when he was hampered by a wrist injury (more on that later). 

Kirilloff didn’t make the team out of spring training, another questionable decision by a front office that has raised plenty over the last year. Kirilloff indeed hit just .129/.182/.258 in 33 spring plate appearances, raising doubts about whether he could help the two-time defending division champions win right out of the gate. 

"AK" ultimately received The Call on April 15th for a doubleheader against Boston. His start was anything but ordinary. He began his MLB career going 0-for-15 with more hard-hit outs than there are stars in the sky. 

His quality of contact finally equaled results over an excellent seven-game stretch. Kirilloff hit .321/.333/.857 with four homers and three doubles over that span. He had arrived, and at a time when the Twins needed some juice. AK looked as advertised. 

But of course, this was the 2021 Twins, and Kirilloff could not escape their misfortune. He injured his wrist sliding into second base amid his torrid stretch and missed nearly three weeks of action. 

The injury mostly sapped Kirilloff's power for the rest of the summer, and he finally opted for surgery in July. Kirilloff’s season was that rare mix of both excitement and disappointment. He crushed when healthy, but only for a few weeks. 

As Nick pointed out in this outstanding piece, Kirilloff is still only 23 and already showing massive power potential when that was his main question as a prospect. On the flip side, he’s had wrist issues in each of the last two seasons (spanning three years). That’s not great.

Here’s what is: Kirilloff’s expected slugging percentage in 2021 (.532) was one point less than Juan Soto, Josh Donaldson, and Luis Robert’s (.533). 

Kirilloff was the unluckiest hitter in baseball by many measures. There was a 109-point difference between his actual and expected slugging percentage, the most in baseball. 

The difference between Kirilloff’s actual and expected batting average was the third-highest behind fellow Twin Max Kepler and the struggling Cody Bellinger. 

We often attribute things to bad luck when that’s not the case. It is here. Kirilloff can only hit the ball hard for so long before results reveal themselves. Those results could be waiting for AK in 2022. The sky remains the limit. 

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