A Perfect Free Agent Exists for the Twins

I am content with one FA if it is quality and your choice makes great logic.  Rodon, Ober, Ryan and two of Balazovic, Winder, Sands, Bundy, Duran, Richardson, Canterino, Strotman would give me some hope for the future (even though I am a Bundy sceptic).   They are not going to fill out the staff unless there is a massive trade, so a good anchor and a rotation of young arms lets us see what might be happening beyond 2022.

20 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think the plan is to have to sign 3 starters every offseason. I think 2 years ago was supposed to be the last season of that plan. Then last year was. Now this year is. The plan is to start producing their own arms. But then covid happened and delayed the arrivals. Then they all got hurt. But now they're all starting to need 40 man protection so they can't really delay anymore. The young arms are the plan. They're really what will make or break Falvine. I think that's why we hear them talking about being creative with piggy back starters, etc.

I'd think Rodon on a 1 or 2 year deal would be good and it's a move I'd make. Nothing wrong with bringing him in and flipping him at this deadline, next offseason, or the next deadline if that's the best move then. But I'd bring him in and at least have an opening day starter worthy of starting opening day. But everything, in 2022 and beyond, comes down to whether or not they can start producing their own arms. If they can't it's all a lost cause.

If there was an arrow in the center of the bullseye, this arrow would split it down the middle.  As tough as it is for some folks to accept, the best case scenario is a product of developing pitching and it sure looks like the front office agrees with you.  That said ... Rodon on a two-year deal would be great even if he becomes a trade chip.

I think he will go closer to a 20-25M/year deal if it is only 1-2 years. Maybe you can get it at 18M/year for a 4 year deal. At FG the projection was 3/45 or 4/80. MLB trade rumors had 1/25.

I agree though that Rodón is a must sign to be competitive next year. He has no QO attached. He has ace upside when healthy. He should be the top priority for the Twins FO if they are to ever be believed again in their statements about spending and being competitive.

13 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I want the young guys to pan out, and I am expecting exactly that. 

But they shouldn't be counting on ANY of them to be a top of the rotation arm. Knock on wood, one or two are, but the most likely outcome is that they develop some middle of the rotation talent and some guys who can be quality backend/swingmen types. They absolutely should be looking to shore up the front of the rotation with an arm or two on long term deals IN ADDITION to developing their own players.

I realize there are decent options that are not 5 year contracts but have you ever listed all of the 5+ year deals and looked at WAR by year, specifically after year 1?  There have been a couple guys like Scherzer and Grienke that performed over their entire contracts.  Outside of these truly elite SPs, the majority of free agents SPs are not very productive after the 1st year.  They are horrible after the first two years.  Therefore, if history repeats itself, the strategy of getting them for the long haul is a really bad idea.  The middle of the road guys are seldom difference makers.  They are sometimes good supporting cast like Pineada.

The only way Rodon signs with the Twins is if they overpay. If the high end of the market for Rodon is a one year deal at 25 million, Twins will have to offer 45-50 million over 2 years to get him to come to a rebuilding team. You have to pay to get players to sign with rebuilding teams.

I had my doubts about Rodon if they expect 5+ innings through out the season. If they've changed their mindset from relying heavily on weak SPing and a failing BP last season to relying heavily on long relief, then we have a chance. We have even a much weaker rotation so far, a steady diet of long relievers made up of rotating AAAA and weak SPs are vital.

I'm a bit nervous about this - The White Sox knew what they were doing when they non-tendered Colome and we picked him up (yes I know he got better later), no one knows more about Rondon's medicals than the Sox do - I'm suspicious why they didn't want to bring him back.  Low floor / High ceiling type of guy I guess, but how do you make a good offer on that?

34 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

I'm a bit nervous about this - The White Sox knew what they were doing when they non-tendered Colome and we picked him up (yes I know he got better later), no one knows more about Rondon's medicals than the Sox do - I'm suspicious why they didn't want to bring him back.  Low floor / High ceiling type of guy I guess, but how do you make a good offer on that?

What Chris said. Based on Rodon's medicals in November, the ChiSox didn't offer Rodon a Qualifying Offer.

I think Rodon is counting on (or hoping for) his medicals to improve by the end of lockdown. And how much competition will the Twins have if that is the case. You can't count on winning the bidding.

I would say no to Rodon, too much injury risk and too expensive. I prefer Pineda and a trade for SP.

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Marcus Stroman called and he'd like to disagree with you. He got what he was expected to in $ and went to a team in far worse shape than the Twins. You could actually argue he got less total money than expected since he took at 3 year deal instead of 5+ like the other guys in his age and talent range. So he got his expected AAV and went to a team in a full rebuild with very few MLB level players that likely won't compete at anytime during his current deal. They didn't overpay at all and he went there.

But the Cubs do have a history of spending money and signing the big names. The Cubs could sign more people after Stroman to fill out their roster to be competitive. If the Twins signed Rodon, I just don't see them spending any more big money and they still are not competitive this year. 

We need guys to start 30 games, and go deep (i.e. at least into the sixth inning more often than not). Hopefully push waaaaay above 150 innings pitched.

None of the Twins prospects will push beyond 150 innings: Winder, Balazovic, Duran whatever. Even Ryan. Ober might. Jax could possibly. But there will be a lot of Triple-A tag-teaming or, if back to rebuilding mode, just pitching 4-5 innings at best. You can stand that for one or two guys at best, but 3 or 4...no...because the 1-2 is 3-4 and the 3-4 is 5-6 pitchers you have to carry on the 40-man and shuffle.

6 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

I don't disagree with the premise that signing free agent arms, at 30 or older, to 5+ year deals is suboptimal. You're likely to watch it go downhill quickly. The problem is that's how the market currently plays. If you want to get the services of those top pitchers you either need to convince other FA pitchers to think like Trevor Bauer, or be willing to spend well above projected AAV in a shorter term.

How many pitchers did Cleveland sign to this type of deal before their run of success. How about Tampa? Whether people here like it or not, this is what they’re trying to build - a pipeline like Cleveland and Tampa had. They’re not going to blow a bunch of money or trade off a bunch of prospects to block that pipeline. I’m not saying they won’t acquire one, and maybe sign or trade for another cheap reclamation project but people here need to realize and accept what they’re trying to do, or just keep complaining.

I agree. It's pretty obvious that they're going to role with the young guys in the rotation and probably also the bullpen. I'm not saying that's what they should do; I'm saying that's what they're going to do.

If you want to get the services of those top pitchers you either need to convince other FA pitchers to think like Trevor Bauer, or be willing to spend well above projected AAV in a shorter term.

This is the betwixt and between spot. I'm not up for allowing risk assessment to become definitive roster construction strategy. Rodon is risk, but maybe there is another way of managing that risk. Going out of the box entirely, look to a 6 man rotation to limit innings over the season, but retain innings expectations per game. Create an additional rotational spot for one of our minor league studs, and if one doesnt work, try another. And trade for Manea. Will cost Cantorino or Balezovich, plus another....but...there is risk in FA, there is risk in trade,...so what? They took a managed risk with JD and arguably have done well with that contract. No reason that logic cannot be applied to SP's with the same commitment to creative solutions.

5 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

It's a bit out of left field, but I wouldn't be surprised if the White Sox agreed not to give Rodon a QO if he agreed to let them match any free agent offer. He just seemed like a pretty obvious QO move.

I only suggest it because they just won the division, have money to spend but so far haven't done much. More importantly, even after two dreadful injury filled seasons by Rodon, the White Sox already brought him back as a free agent last year and were rewarded for their continued relationship with an outstanding season. I could see the non-QO offer as a reciprocation of their affinity and an olive branch since they got him on the cheap and well below arbitration salary last year.

That's probably all too conspiratorial, though if he ends up resigning with the White Sox, I'll probably figure out a way to bump this post.

In the unlikely event the White Sox had a deal with Rodon to match any offer we would not be able to sign him.  If such a deal did not exist they did not extend a QO because they knew better.  So I fail to see your logic.  It seems like desperation.  That's just fine for fans.  Not so good for a FO.

1 hour ago, Rosterman said:

We need guys to start 30 games, and go deep (i.e. at least into the sixth inning more often than not). Hopefully push waaaaay above 150 innings pitched.

 

None of the Twins prospects will push beyond 150 innings: Winder, Balazovic, Duran whatever. Even Ryan. Ober might. Jax could possibly. But there will be a lot of Triple-A tag-teaming or, if back to rebuilding mode, just pitching 4-5 innings at best. You can stand that for one or two guys at best, but 3 or 4...no...because the 1-2 is 3-4 and the 3-4 is 5-6 pitchers you have to carry on the 40-man and shuffle.

 

What's the difference if you have 2 SPs contribute 300 IP and 2 RPs contribute 140  vs  4 SPs contributing 110 IP each.  It's literally identical.  It's actually probably less stress because they are not up and down like RPs.

Rodon has 29 other options out there. What draws him to Minnesota, divisional rival and all?

I agree that Rodon is a good fit under the current circumstances and he should certainly be heavily considered.  I would offer 2-years and $40 million, possibly 3-years $51 million.  But I would also be ready to make a trade for another SP.  Montas would be at the top of my list.  Bassitt close behind.  And Pineda would be an excellent guy to have in that #3 or #4 spot.  Ryan and Ober will barely top 115 IP.  Rodon will probably only pitch 150 innings.  More bodies are needed to piece together a rotation without completely stressing the BP day in and day out.

Construct a staff thru a FA signing and trades:  Rodon, Montas, Pineda, Bundy, Ryan & Ober.  Have Dobnak available to fill in.  Then see who is performing and earning a chance at some Big League starts in-season.  Balazovic, Winder, Duran, Sands Canterino,  etc...  It's a LONG season.  With a LOT of innings.  They need more than many of us think here on TD.  While I would LOVE a SS, there are other options thru a trade than Story.  PITCHING, PITCHING, PITCHING.  Not just for 2022 but for 2023 and 2024.  Pitchers get hurt.  They come up with a sore or "tender" arm.  The Twins have some nice possibilities in the minors.  They are just terribly THIN at the Big League level.  Go get some PITCHERS !!

I'd be in on Rodon, because he's shown the ability to be a frontline guy when healthy. (I would also want the Twins to bring back Pineda, who has also been a quality pitcher when healthy for the Twins) The one good thing about where we are with young pitching getting close to being ready for MLB is we're better situated than some to overcome potential injury from guys like Rodon and Pineda. We have a series of arms in the high minors who you would feel ok about calling up to fill in when one of those guys hits the IL, rather than trying to count on them to carry the load in the rotation from day 1.

But they actually have to pay the money and sign someone. Backing up a rotation of Rodon, Pineda, Bundy, Ober, and Ryan with Dobnak, Winder, Duran, Canterino, Strotman, Balazovic, Woods-Richardson, and Sands could definitely work. There's plenty of risk in it from a performance level and a lot of variance built into that, but it could also set you up for some time with your pitching pipeline.

But they have to sign Rodon and pay the money. I like the Twins pipeline for pitching right now: there's a lot of talent in there. But every, literally everyone knows that you can't expect to add two more of those rookies to rotation out of spring training and expect to compete.