3 Twins Pitchers Due to Bounce Back in 2022

Time to vent.  I think that names should not start with the letters Jh.   I started thinking this when Jhonny Peralta was playing.  Jhoan Duran and now Jharel Cotton currently mess with our spellchecks.    It’s incredibly inconvenient to have to write their names 3 times in order to get my IPhone to print it out with Jh.   The Twins have a legal department.  Let’s get them working on name changes for these two.   Get the H out.  

I am not a huge Bundy fan and quite frankly expect the move to fail but who knows he could bounce back as well.  

I do expect Dobnak to do better next year.  He came up his rookie year and performed well.  I think the tinkering with the slider might have bit him last year.  Then having finger issues  didn't help.  I also wonder if adjusting to the no more sticky stuff hurt him more than most. I see him working hard to right the ship this year and I still think he has the stuff to be a back end starter.  If he can't do it this year with all the pitching coming up he likely is done as a Twin.

I didn't like the Cotton move as I felt we had younger guys that might be as good or better for the pen, but the Fangraphs article has me seeing I am likely very wrong about him.  Movement is key for pitchers and horizontal movement really messes with a batters swing path.  Spin also makes it harder on batters.  It looks like Cotton has both and just getting healthy.  Not sure if Wes can help him with the control problems but if they can get him to cut down on the walks Cotton could be a very good pickup.

Here's hoping they all bounce back but if even just one does it would be very helpful.

Not sold on any of these 3 and relying on 1, 2 or all 3 of them to make a comeback only proves 1 thing.... the Twins are desperate.

I feel like this article is written frequently. We take a bad pitcher tell him to throw the slider more and hope for the best. 

i would like to just get good pitchers. 

After reading FanGraphs article which was placed in this good article, I have decided to become a huge Cotton fan If he can keep his walks down, he should be a good addition to the Twins starting staff. His spin rates on his FB and changeup are terrific and his slider looker nasty. I wish him lots of success next year. He is my pick to click on the mound for the Twins in 2022.

If we are relying on all 3 pitchers then we are in a rebuild and not trying to compete in 2022.  You don't want to bank on more than 1 back of the rotation spot and a spot in the pen is fine especially if the pitchers have options.  I guess Dobnak does with his contract.  I hope we do more to get more pitching.  I think a Pineda signing and a trade for an Oakland or Cincinnati starter would be enough to at least make 2022 interesting.  

I am OK with the Bundy signing, and was when I'm pretty sure I mentioned somewhere along the line a couple months ago as a flier candidate. I expect no magic and I doubt he will be the 2020 version of himself. But if he can be a mixture of his best Orioles days and 2020, we have a solid #3 who will pitch better than that some days. But I'm just not excited.

I don't think Dobnak is done. He FLEW through the system in 2019 before hitting the ML level and looked like he belonged. He was quite good in 2020 and helped stabilize the staff for about 3/4 of that abbreviated season before a bad game where he got squeezed and the defense let him down. IIRC, I want to say he had a slight injury and wasn't quite the same and was sent out. Still not sure I understand his having a great 2021 ST but being squeezed out. I think that was a big mistake that he he never had time to recover from.  He didn't seem comfortable as a RP, but did well at St Paul before being promoted again and then getting hurt. I remain totally confused if his new slider was an illusion that was quickly figured out, or was he hurting  before officially being injured, or did he just never get in a groove before being injured due to his bouncing around? Combination of all 3?? I agree he could get passed by quickly with all the young arms on the rise, many of which we will see in 2022. But I think he's smart enough, bulldog enough, and has enough stuff to be an OK, solid backend SP without his "new" slider. But I have to see him do it again at this point. But I haven't given up on him yet.

Cotton is a mystery man I wasn't crazy about when they got him. Of course, I knew nothing about him. Then I dug in to his history, his stuff and rankings, his injuries, and his "rebirth" as a RP for Texas in AAA and how he finished 2021 in their pen. My first thought then was, why on earth did they let him walk? Healthy again, he's got the stuff to be a legitimate pen option. Now I read discussion he might be a SP sleeper candidate. Maybe. It would be a huge stretch at this point in his career, IMO. There comes a time when certain things just pass you by. I believe he has reached the point in his career where he has a chance to be a quality middle man who can go 1-3IP and be effective but that's probably his ceiling. Of course, he could also be an opener depending on how the Twins approach their 2022 season, but the job is pretty much the same.

I honestly can't rank these 3. I believe all of them could "bounce back" to actually contribute, but all in different ways. I think Cotton gets ML time, but the Twins are going to rotate arms all season long for audition and usage sake. That's not necessarily a bad thing. But it's up to Cotton to show enough and prove enough he should STAY up. 

We need GS and IP. Unless the FO surprises or dazzles us with moves, they will probably add at least one mediocre SP, maybe two. I keep thinking Pineda and either Tyler Anderson or Kikuchi. (For the record, I'm far more interested in Kikuchi and some untapped potential). Even then, there is going to be a lot of opportunity to promote and audition about 10 young arms across the season in various roles. (Starters and relievers). Bundy has ML experience and an uneven portfolio. And his 2nd year option is a "if the light comes on" option and nothing more. Make no mistake about that. Dobber is younger, cheaper, and may have as much upside right now. Twist my arm, I'd pick Dobnak over Bundy as the better bounce back option.

I am thinking we are going to rotate a bunch of young arms through this year.  Have no faith in Dobnak, other two might work out, though Cotton has the more upside of the two.  They are lottery tickets and do not make enough money to force them staying here.  So we hope and will not be major disappointed if they fail.

Dobnak is an easy choice to bounce back simply because he should be healthy. A healthy Dobnak isn't a bad pitcher and should be able to slide in as a 5th starter type.

I like the Cotton pickup as a bullpen guy because he's cheap, right-handed and has a shot to be very solid. I don't know that bounce back is really the right category for him, because he was pretty good for Texas last year. I don't see him as a starting option; he really hasn't done that since 2017...and he wasn't great at it. I'm guessing Texas looked at his WHIP and didn't think the success was all that sustainable, which is fair, but he seems worth taking a shot on. I think his long-term success in the bullpen depends on two things: whether his reduced hr/9 is a result of the move to the bullpen and his current approach, or a small sample mirage and if he can keep the BB/9 manageable.

Bundy is unlikely to be the guy he was in 2020, but 2019 is doable. The 2020 performance screams small sample size. The real question is whether or not he's healthy and if he can keep the ball in the park. When he's keeping the ball in the park at a reasonable rate, he's a decent pitcher who can chew up innings. When it spikes up over 2 per 9, he's in the trash heap. (see 2021 and 2018) He was a decent risk to take a flyer on, but expecting anything like 2020 is foolish.

I vote none - it is time we started getting pitchers who do not need to bounce back or comeback.  I am much more intrigued with the young arms.

I looked at the Bundy record and was not sure where the optimism comes from.  Maeda was great in 2020 too - it was a half season and those performances do not give us a true look.  In 2019 7 - 14 with a 4.79 ERA, in 2018 8 - 16 with a 5.45.  Baltimore thought he was going to be a difference maker and do not have enough talent to give away potentially good pitchers.  

Dobnak is another mirage.  I really like his story and I would love to meet him because he seems like a great guy, but I know a lot of great guys and that is not the quality that makes a great pitcher - look at Schilling and Carlton.  Randy is a career -1.3 WAR.  His era progression is 1.59 - 4.05 - 7.64.  Yes he is not a relief pitcher, but if he is a good pitcher he should get someone out. 

Jharel has the following eras 2.15 - 5.58 - 3.52  but there are no stats for 2018, 2019,2020.  That is a big absence.   Except for his year with Oakland he has pitched 60 innings.  Texas needs pitchers why didn't they keep him?  He is the mystery of these three.   A good article on Cotton is from Off The Bench - "In case you missed it, Jharel Cotton is back in the Major Leagues and is pitching out of the Texas Rangers’ bullpen. Jharel Cotton is an easy player to root for; he was drafted by the Dodgers in the 2012 draft out of East Carolina University. In the summer of 2016 in need of a pitcher and an outfielder, the Dodgers sent Cotton and Frankie Montas to Oakland in a trade for Rich Hill and Josh Reddick. "  About his injury the post adds, "In the time since that fateful elbow pop, Cotton jumped from the frying pan into the fire. While recovering from his elbow surgery, he suffered a hamstring tear which also required surgery. "  At age 30 with a lot to prove he is still the best of these three. 

I'm in the camp that believes Dobnak is clearly one of the 3 best pitchers in the Twins MLB rotation right now. He's just a half tick behind Bailey Ober. Steamer projections seem to agree with me. 

If given a fair shot, I expect Dobnak to be a solid 4.25 ERA level pitcher, slightly outperforming his Steamer projection.

The more I read about, and dig into the metrics for, Dylan Bundy, the worse I feel about the signing. It's the exact kind of signing a team like the Twins should not be making. The upside is a 4 starter. The downside is JA Happ in the first half of 2021.

Bundy is a perfectly reasonable signing for a team like the Mets who are looking to compete and need a 5th starter who has some MLB history of being perfectly reliable in that role, rather than relying on the volitility of a AAAA guy in their system, or the volitility of 25 year old, B- level, SP prospects. 

There was a line spoken by the great Eno Sarris a couple months back on his podcast where he was quoting an anonymous GM (obviously not with the Twins) that said, "I don't want to sign a guy like [Dylan Bundy] to be our fifth starter when we have prospects to be our fifth starter. When we go into free agency, we want to sign upside and give those prospects a chance if the FA signing fails."

That is how the Twins need be approaching free agency. If the FA pitcher kills it and the team is contending, you ride them to the end. If the FA pitcher is killing it but the team is out of it, you get a great return in a trade. If that FA pitcher is hurt or terrible, the team is likely out of it anyway, giving a prospect some valuable MLB experience (after cutting the FA pitcher if terrible).

Getting reliable innings does almost nothing for the Twins. They have plenty of "5" starters (meaning prospects). They need to go the high risk, high reward with FAs. Bundy is just high risk, moderate reward. 

I don't mind FA pitchers on one year deals for $10mil or less. Rich Hill was exactly that, but of the high risk high reward variety. Even Michael Pineda was that in practice, but of the high risk, high reward variety.

Matt Shoemaker was sort of the same thing, but of the kind that fails. Oh well. Prospects got some valuable experience in his place. That's a good signing.

FWIW, I'd rather sign Matt Shoemaker again. No, that is not hyperbole. Shoe at least had a decent finish to 2021 with some noticeable adjustments under the tutelage of pitch whisperer Brian Banister.