Trade Candidate Profile: Max Kepler

I don't know much about Peraza but if he is a true up the middle talent I think I would do that deal.  We are short elite up the middle talent so that would help.  Medina is a nice throw in as well.  I just don't know if the Yankee's would do that deal.  I think the Twins might not get pitching back in a deal with the Yanks at least not close to ready pitching as the Yankee's badly need pitching too.  Might have to swap Medina for another position player but I could still it happening with Peraza the headliner.  I wouldn't love losing Max but if moving him helps fix the SS position it would be worth it.

I would really not like the Twins trading Kepler. He can cover center field if necessary and has an above average bat. Solid 3.0-4.0 WAR player over a full season, cheap and under a long term contract. The Twins have control of him for 3 more years and if he continues to put up 3-4 win seasons, the Twins will be giving him at least a QO.

Kepler is the kind of stable season contributor who fills out your roster and allows you to move other pieces around.

The Twins need him next year and I don’t move him unless I get an overpay for a player under control. It should be more than a fair deal to motivate the Twins to make the move. Fair deals don’t move the needle. They need to find some highly motivated this year to pay a little more.

Unless they are blowing it up, I don't see how this helps the Twins.  Peraza doesn't even have 200 PAs at AA, so he likely won't be a cog on a contending team in 2022.

Everything you covered on Kepler makes me not want him traded.  With known controlled costs of all other outfielders not named Buxton, the Twins could even afford for him to be the 4th outfielder with his contract.  You may not sign a 4th outfielder to that contract, but you can play an already signed guy that way when you have the Larnachs, Rookers, Kirilloffs and Celestinos making $600K for a couple more years.

  On 7/26/2021 at 10:35 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I think dealing Kepler is an awful idea. If Buxton is gone, Max is the CF. NO ONE in AAA, maybe AA, can both hit and field at this point (for an OF). Kepler can. Larnach probably isn't a good fielder either. I don't get trading Kepler at all.

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Center fielders don't really need to hit well. Buxton himself only managed a wRC+ of 93 in his career year 2017. Looking over Celestino, his sprint speed is well off the pace for a premium CF. He's just about identical to Jake Cave in sprint and speed to first.

I did notice Gordon is exclusively playing CF these days. Guess the Twins are trying to figure that possibility out. Nothing super concrete to offer at CF, though. That's for sure.

  On 7/26/2021 at 10:35 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I think dealing Kepler is an awful idea. If Buxton is gone, Max is the CF. NO ONE in AAA, maybe AA, can both hit and field at this point (for an OF). Kepler can. Larnach probably isn't a good fielder either. I don't get trading Kepler at all.

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Max is not a centerfielder .. He is capable of playing center, but he isn't a center fielder.

  On 7/26/2021 at 11:20 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Name the better one on the roster, which is my point.....Name a better RF or LF on D.....

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Well corner outfielders seem to be a position of strength for the Twins. Typically teams trade from positions of strength.. You could make an argument to trade Max, for a prospect who is a true center fielder in a package... Also - Royce Lewis is a CF most likely.

I trade any veteran on this roster if they bring a great return. Kepler included. Hard to get excited about a career .236 hitter just because he can cover CF in a pinch.

  On 7/26/2021 at 11:39 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Not next year. Lewis won't be starting the year in Minnesota. And none of those corner players are ready other than larnach. Unless you are punting next year.... Then maybe. And Larnach isn't as good as Kepler, and can't back up center. 

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  On 7/26/2021 at 11:20 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Name the better one on the roster, which is my point.....Name a better RF or LF on D.....and, I'm not sure the stats agree with you:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/max-kepler/12144/stats?position=OF

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I see you added the stats part of this argument. He’s got a negative UZR in center, with declining speed, the past 2 years. Again, not a centerfielder. Who cares about 2022 at this point, on pace to lose 90+ games right now.

  On 7/27/2021 at 1:44 AM, Mike Sixel said:

They are. 500 since their bad start. Add Buxton and a good pitcher, replace shoemaker with one of the rookies.....

Sure, the last two years he's been negative.... Barely. Ok.... Who can field the corners? Who plays right if he's gone?

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Exactly. The. Point.

RV78 nailed it.

On the surface, this trade makes sense in return value and I would strongly consider it with a potential overpay of Peraza and Gill, even if it helps the Yankees. His overall ability offensively, his defense, CF flexibility and cost control gives him a value that is underappreciated. 

Even if he just never adjusts his approach whatsoever, he has great value as a primary starting OF with quality defense and can play a solid CF over 120-140 games as a starter who you sit against a LHSP but can come in to a game when the SP is out. But these are also the reasons for the Twins to keep him and just make sure you have a quality RH OF to give him, and Larnach, some days off.

There is an illusion the Twins have a glut of power hitting corner OF. Larnach and Kirilloff have graduated and have bright futures. Wallner is the next big bat and he's in A+ with some potential. Rooker is a virtual clone of Willingham, a guy who should be a DH but won't kill you in the OF or 1B. There are also a couple guys who aren't big bats, but have the potential to be solid starters or 4th OF options who have a sort of "overall" ability to contribute at the ML level. And I'm not saying there isn't value for that kind of player. Think Hatcher, Lawton, or Cave when he was healthy and actually hitting. Potentially, some solid guys who could carve out a nice niche, maybe even as a starter. But right now, today, the depth of the OF in the system is a collection of young, talented CF who are at AA and below. And this includes Celistino who should be at St Paul. 

A return for Kepler should be pretty big because you have to look at a lot more detail other than "he never turned out to be a star".

I wouldn't move him unless there was a nice overpay I couldn't turn down. 

  On 7/27/2021 at 1:44 AM, Mike Sixel said:

They are. 500 since their bad start. Add Buxton and a good pitcher, replace shoemaker with one of the rookies.....

Sure, the last two years he's been negative.... Barely. Ok.... Who can field the corners? Who plays right if he's gone?

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what? I'm not sure I'm following what your argument is at this point.

  On 7/27/2021 at 2:26 AM, Mike Sixel said:

If you trade Kepler.... Who plays right? Is there anyone in the system that is an outfielder that can hit and field other than Buxton and Kepler? Not Rooker. Not Larnach. Not Celestino. Why trade him?

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Larnach has played 60 career games, is a former top 30 prospect in all of baseball, and showed flashes of being fantastic in that span. Rookies slump, thats what they do... He is absolutely capable of taking over for Kepler and thats most likely what is going to happen.

  On 7/27/2021 at 2:59 AM, Mike Sixel said:

You must be reading very different scouting reports about his fielding. Who plays left if Larnach is in right?

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If your comfortable with Kepler's defense in the corner spots,  who had a  UZR of -.02 last year and 1.0 UZR this year, we can live with Larnach's -1.3 .. Like you said , "Barely negative" ... If you have a plus center fielder, corner spots don't really matter a ton defensively.

Kepler in a Yankees jersey wouldn't be right.

  On 7/27/2021 at 2:44 AM, Tim said:

Larnach has played 60 career games, is a former top 30 prospect in all of baseball, and showed flashes of being fantastic in that span. Rookies slump, thats what they do... He is absolutely capable of taking over for Kepler and thats most likely what is going to happen.

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Are we 100% sure Larnach will start next year with the Twins? His audition started off well but in July he has been brutal (.205, .279, .295) if this would have been just about any other year he would be back in the minors. Don't get me wrong I think his future is bright, but writing his name in pen as a starter next year is dangerous, because if he hits like this you will need a back up plan and like Mike said there really isn't one in the minors right now, so that means most older cast off replacements.

  On 7/27/2021 at 2:59 AM, Mike Sixel said:

Who plays left if Larnach is in right?

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Who's on first?