Article: Free Agent Pitcher Profile: Ubaldo Jimenez

[raindog]

I was against the idea of signing him at first, because of the draft pick and the very good chance he regresses. But Jesus...they have to take a chance at some point. There aren't a lot of good options out there.

[jorgenswest]

I believe Mikewantswins already answered your concern:

 

Not at all...

 

While I agree with his statement about a second round pick, he only speaks to the second round pick as if having it is independent of all other picks.

 

The concern is about having fewer dollars in the draft. That impacts the first pick.

 

The context of the draft has changed.

 

In the old system, Manaea doesn't make it to the Royals. He is drafted by a larger market team that doesn't have a draft cap to worry about. In the new system, a team to could go under slot with their first pick in order to take a second pick falling due to their salary demands.

 

It could go the other direction also. If they lose those dollars, the Twins might have to pass on a player in the first round who they might have to go over slot. They won't have the flexibility to do so.

[Thrylos]

Two?! Really?! I'm not even understanding why we lost one to sign out own guy...

 

 

Really hated that trade the day it was announced. And now, in retrospect, I should have an even more visceral reaction. A horrible, horrible, horrible trade.

 

That was after the trade. He was a class A (old agreement) free agent which meant that the Twins would get 2 picks if another team signed him...

[jokin]

Not at all...

 

While I agree with his statement about a second round pick, he only speaks to the second round pick as if having it is independent of all other picks.

 

The concern is about having fewer dollars in the draft. That impacts the first pick.

 

The context of the draft has changed.

 

In the old system, Manaea doesn't make it to the Royals. He is drafted by a larger market team that doesn't have a draft cap to worry about. In the new system, a team to could go under slot with their first pick in order to take a second pick falling due to their salary demands.

 

It could go the other direction also. If they lose those dollars, the Twins might have to pass on a player in the first round who they might have to go over slot. They won't have the flexibility to do so.

 

Wouldn't this scenario make more sense with a team having a lower first round pick or a supplemental pick.... or is there a Manaea that is going to drop to #5 in the Second Round that you are aware of? If the Twins draft some lower echelon-talent like Hunter Dozier with their #5 pick, a lot of folks around here are going to pretty disappointed.

[kab21]

It took Tampa 6 years of good drafts (fruitful drafts) to get a good thing going. Twins need 2 more strong drafts to get a team in 2-3 years that will start cranking out .500 seasons or better. Producing at least a few players each year afterwards will be required to put them over the top and also stay competing for longer than 6 years - when free agency starts to decimate those teams after service time is fulfilled.

 

This is kind of my point. It took 6 years for Tampa to turn it around. If the Twins can get a very good starter for nothing more than money and a prospect that is unlikely to turn out then they are on the road to being a good team faster. And there is nothing about this that means they won't continue to build the farm system.

 

Here's a thread where many people are prepared to trade someone as good as Dozier/Rosario plus another prospect for a pitcher similar to Jimenez. I would strongly prefer to give up a 2nd draft pick than an actual really good prospect.

[snepp]

That was after the trade. He was a class A (old agreement) free agent which meant that the Twins would get 2 picks if another team signed him...

 

 

Capps wasn't a Type-A, he was a modified Type-B, only a single sandwich pick between the first two rounds.

[zchrz]

This seems to be the kind of contract they should pursue. It won't take 5+ years so even if its an overpay it can be written off before the new crop of in house products needs to be paid. It would not be that prohibitive there is a lot of cap room and it shouldn't be significantly more than Morneau's contract was. They need to get some talent in here, I think it would be stupid to bring the prospects up to cut their teeth on another 90+ loss team. They don't have to hand out 100+ million dollar contracts left and right but they are going to have to gamble on free agency some. Good free agents generally get their markets value and it takes money to play, if they don't gamble they won't win anything. If they bet nothing and sign cheap, known, "reliable", low risk commodities (Corriea) or just go dumpster diving for rehabs (Pelfry) then the staff will continue to be what it is.

[Zephrin]

Ubaldo is not my guy - especially at the prices being discussed. He is going to get paid for 2 ace-like 1/2 seasons, the first half of 2010 and the second half of 2013. (Remember 2010? Dude was 15-1 at the all-star break. He only went 4-7 the rest of the way. The first half of 2013 wasn't eye-opening either.)

 

Bold can be a good thing, but for me Ubaldo is more risky than bold at 4/$64. Something similar to The Freak's 2/$35 would bother me less.

[jorgenswest]

I think Ubaldo will be looking for his last long large contract. He has to see this as buy high. I think he will take the best offer and it can be the Twins.

 

The risk with Ubaldo is that he is either very good or very bad. When he is bad, he can't be on the staff of a contending team. I don't think he is going to age into an innings eating league savvy veteran. If they sign him for 4, how much good Ubaldo do they get?

[twinsfan34]

This is kind of my point. It took 6 years for Tampa to turn it around. If the Twins can get a very good starter for nothing more than money and a prospect that is unlikely to turn out then they are on the road to being a good team faster. And there is nothing about this that means they won't continue to build the farm system.

 

Here's a thread where many people are prepared to trade someone as good as Dozier/Rosario plus another prospect for a pitcher similar to Jimenez. I would strongly prefer to give up a 2nd draft pick than an actual really good prospect.

 

I can follow that logic.

[Shane Wahl]

I can follow that logic.

 

I can too. I am confused by those wanting to trade prospects for certain pitchers when the equivalent pitchers are available for money that is readily available.

[Paul Pleiss]

Mostly I want Ubaldo on the Twins so I can get a shirt that says "U-ballin w/ Ubaldo" or something to that extent, as long as it has "U-ballin" somewhere. I'd be quite pleased if the Twins signed Ubaldo. 4/64 seems solid, obviously I'd prefer to see a 2/3 year deal, even a 2/35 like Timmy. The Twins May have some pitching coming up through their system, and inking questionable "stars" to long term deals is something I'd avoid, however, the lack of high-minors pitching talent puts me squarely in the Ubaldo territory. Sign him. Give up the 2nd round draft pick.

[Dave T]

I'd rather overpay for Jimenez than Correia.

[Heimer]

Jimenez is close to the wrong side of thirty with his continue decrease of velocity, the twins might get two more good years out of him. Id rather try to get lucky in the second round and get a guy that can help us for TEN years.

 

But if the twins were expected to contend in two years, I would say yes.

[kab21]

Jimenez is close to the wrong side of thirty with his continue decrease of velocity, the twins might get two more good years out of him. Id rather try to get lucky in the second round and get a guy that can help us for TEN years.

 

But if the twins were expected to contend in two years, I would say yes.

 

The Twins won't be held back by lack of prospects. They will be held back by never having enough effective MLB'ers to add prospects to. Ubaldo only costs money and a what likely amounts to a marginal prospect. Adding an above average arm is exactly what this team needs (now and 3 years from now).

 

I already showed draft results for the Twins (and the entire MLB) is really sketchy once you get close to the 2nd rd. And even if that pick turned out it will probably take 3-4 years to even make the majors.

 

I think you are also prematurely jumping the gun by saying that someone won't be effective at age 32.

[Willihammer]

The Offseason Handbook pegs his estimated contract at four years and $64 million

 

This would please everyone wouldn't it? Those of us who'd like to watch a better product would get a front of the rotation talent. Those concerned about the profitability of the product and breaking minor league talent into the rotation would have a starter coming off the books in each of the next 5 years. Everybody wins.

 

I guess there is the question of - would Ubaldo go for 4/64. At this point, I think most of us would be surprised if he could do better than that anywhere else.

[Otwins]

I don't think he will get near 4/64. The teams that make the most sense to me are Toronto and the Yanks- I still do not see him as a fit for the Twins

[oldguy10]

I agree 100% with Kab21's comment way back in October about adding the right pieces in MLB right now to augment the good prospects coming along. If management does not do that there is little or no success to look forward to in regards to moving up in the standings.