5 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Will Win in 2023

[Ted Schwerzler]

There’s no denying that things have gone wrong for the Minnesota Twins each of the past two seasons. From being a near-90 loss team in 2021, to falling flat halfway through the year a season ago, it’s time the tide turns. There’s plenty of offseason left for the roster to change, but there’s renewed hope with Opening Day 2023.

 

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

As Derek Falvey and Thad Levine look to reinvigorate Rocco Baldelli’s clubhouse, the goal for Minnesota will be to have their first winning season since 2020. While Covid gave Major League Baseball just a 60-game season, the Twins were still riding high from the 2019 Bomba Squad. That luster has now long worn off, and the fan base responded by generating the worst attendance since 2001.

There is reason to believe, even in losing Carlos Correa, that the 2023 Twins will turn the tide and finish with a winning record. Here’s a few reasons to get on board with that notion:

1. Better Health
There may be no team that had a worse case of injury luck than the Twins. The injured list could’ve won a considerable amount of games on its own as a team, and each time someone got healthy someone else got hurt. The organization decided to turn the page for the training staff and brought in Nick Paparesta with hopes of better results. We will have to take a wait and see approach when deciding what the actual impact is, but it’s unlikely that the same level of injury will be replicated year over year. Luck isn’t something Minnesota sports teams typically have on their side, but even a bit less bad luck would be welcomed in the year ahead.

2. Youth Development
As much as the Twins need to bring in new talent, much of their internal pipeline has graduated to the big league roster. Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis are two of the most highly anticipated prospects for the franchise, and while both have yet to see health at the Major League level, they have the talent to compete. Combined with Trevor Larnach, Jose Miranda, and potentially even Brooks Lee in 2023, there is a substantial amount of home-grown contributors. The success of this organization in the immediate future will be largely reflective of how much each young player can tap into their ceiling.

3. Redo Tight Ones
In 2022, the Twins went 20-28 in one-run games. Despite nearly an identical overall record in 2021, Baldelli’s club went 25-19 in one-run games. Obviously winning close games comes down to a multitude of factors. Minnesota did a poor job closing out games last season, and they also failed quite often with runners in scoring position. The former is a reflection of bullpen talent, but the latter is more likely an outlier given the overall lineup ability. When the Bomba Squad pulled off their 101-win season, they went 23-12 in one-run games. Being on the right side of tight ones obviously raises the water level as a whole, but it doesn’t have to be a substantial amount. Minnesota being .500 in one-run games a season ago would’ve kept them in the division and afforded a winning record.

4. Pitching Depth
For the first time in quite a while the Twins have a pitching pipeline that we haven’t seen. Kenta Maeda returns to an Opening Day rotation alongside Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, and Joe Ryan. The front office should really add another impact starter, but having arms like Bailey Ober, Josh WInder, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Louie Varland provides a nice safety blanket. One would hope that 38 different arms aren’t needed in 2023, but we also shouldn’t see a scenario in which a Chi Chi Gonzalez type is called upon.

5. Division Door Open
As has been the case for the past few years, there should be no clear favorite in the AL Central. While the Chicago White Sox have found themselves in the driver’s seat at times, and Minnesota has won it twice in the past four years, Cleveland surprised in 2022. With Tony La Russa out Chicago should be better managed, but the talent level could be argued to have slipped some. The Guardians are a team to be reckoned with as they have developed talent, but they certainly aren’t a juggernaut. Both the Tigers and Royals will want to take a step forward, but neither should pose a huge threat yet. A three-team race for the division crown will likely be tightly contested for the better part of the season.

Everyone involved with the organization is hoping for a tide-turning season. The offseason plans may not have gone to perfection thus far, but results on the field could be drastically different simply because of who is already employed by this team. Minnesota didn't fall off a cliff talent-wise in a season, and righting the ship in 2023 remains a solid possibility.

View full article

[sorney]

I appreciate your optimism here, but the "hope for a tide turning season" feels very on brand for the Twins.  Why go out and create your own fate, when you can sit back and hope?!?

[Craig Arko]

Sure, reversing the close games can make all the difference. Compare the 2022 Vikings with the 2021 edition and that becomes clear.

Keeping a healthy and relatively stable squad, and challenging for the division seems a realistic goal. Beyond that the path is a lot thornier.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't know what will happen, but if this team is healthy and they don't blow the vast majority of one run games, they win the division last year. 

The SP and RP is better to start this year than last year.....

So, sure, they could win. That's why I don't believe for one minute they are trading Kepler or anyone else.

[Nashvilletwin]

42 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

Sure, reversing the close games can make all the difference. Compare the 2022 Vikings with the 2021 edition and that becomes clear.

Keeping a healthy and relatively stable squad, and challenging for the division seems a realistic goal. Beyond that the path is a lot thornier.

Question: what is the biggest difference between the ‘21 Vikes and the ‘22 Vikes? Zimmer gone, KOC in.

We want to win more close games? Particularly with our roster that could be very generously described as “average”? Start with playing with excellent fundamentals and “steal” more wins than loses via better in-game management.  That begins and ends with Rocco.

[EGFTShaw]

This is a position, (bandwagon), I've been on.

• Would have I liked to get C4 back?  Absolutely, with my second choice being TT and the Slide Machine.  What XB got was far too much and I was never on the DS bandwagon.
• Would have I liked one of the very few true #1 pitchers available via FA?  Sure.

But neither of these happened.  Lowering our ceiling at this time.  We have 5-7 good pitchers but no one who has stepped up to be that losing streak stopper.

But they have good depth in the SPers.

I like our young upcoming players.

The AL Central is the division with most opportunity for a team to step into the role of division champs.

I can see a few minor additions, maybe to our RPers and RH bat for depth.  

But I am looking forward to seeing what our current Young Guns can do... :)

[tony&rodney]

The optimism is important and I also find myself wishing for the Twins to have better health, a drastic improvement from their young players, a switch in close game results, and significantly improved pitching. 

The things beyond control is how Detroit and Kansas City improve, whether Chicago plays to their talent, and how anyone can stop Cleveland from winning the division by 10 games again. I think the division will be stronger and thus the Twins will need leaps in improvement from their pitchers, core players, and youth as well as near perfect health to be relevant in 2023. I hope this can happen.

[puckstopper1]

Yes - the AL Central is wide open IF Chicago keeps underperforming and Cleveland does not overperform. So there is hope of a pennant race for the Twins in 2023.

There is, however, NO hope that they do anything in the playoffs...

[baul0010]

45 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Question: what is the biggest difference between the ‘21 Vikes and the ‘22 Vikes? Zimmer gone, KOC in.

We want to win more close games? Particularly with our roster that could be very generously described as “average”? Start with playing with excellent fundamentals and “steal” more wins than loses via better in-game management.  That begins and ends with Rocco.

Hmmm...... That is a decent point.  

[JD-TWINS]

21 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

This is a position, (bandwagon), I've been on.

• Would have I liked to get C4 back?  Absolutely, with my second choice being TT and the Slide Machine.  What XB got was far too much and I was never on the DS bandwagon.
• Would have I liked one of the very few true #1 pitchers available via FA?  Sure.

But neither of these happened.  Lowering our ceiling at this time.  We have 5-7 good pitchers but no one who has stepped up to be that losing streak stopper.

But they have good depth in the SPers.

I like our young upcoming players.

The AL Central is the division with most opportunity for a team to step into the role of division champs.

I can see a few minor additions, maybe to our RPers and RH bat for depth.  

But I am looking forward to seeing what our current Young Guns can do... :)

Suggestion of RH bat depth for DH & security at 3B - Evan Longoria!

Relievers for BP depth…….as you mentioned, I to wanted a FA starter to push Maeda into the Pen. Am still in favor of that happening somehow, maybe Varland picking up the 5th rotation spot.

Drop Maeda into middle relief & add Fulmer - Hand - Britton or any 2 of those guys and our BP is really solid.

No Pagan - maybe no López in bullpen …….offer up their “potential” along with Kepler and a prospect for a SP in return. Dream scenario.

Bull Pen to reverse the 27 blown saves (let’s cut to 12) from ‘22:

FA (Hand) - Moran - Thielbar - Megill - Jax - Duran - Maeda - FA(Fulmer)……..Winder & Alcala in St. Paul & ready to go.

[gman]

At the start of last year we had Pagan and Duffy finishing out games. We turned quite a few wins into losses. Next year we will have Duran and Lopez to finish off games.  That could be a 5-6 game turn around right there. ++++++

Vazquez instead of Sanchez.  +

A return of a healthy Polanco,   +

More from Kirilloff, Larnach, Buxton, Jeffers, Gray, Ober. ++++

Maeda & Mahli instead of Bundy & Archer. ++

Miranda all year.  +

Gallo over Sano. +

More known commodities in Jax, Moran & Alcala. +++

Hopefully the same from Ryan, Arraez & Gordon. Should be +++

Lots of +'s.

Add Lewis and maybe Lee , Martin, Wallner, Julian,, ++++

Continued improvement from Varland, SWR, Winder, Henriquez. ++++

Improved health, improved upper level minors depth. Better 26 man roster overall. Should be a much better season.

[IA Bean Counter]

I could see the team win this year,  but for me this year isn't a make or break for me.  I really think the early start last year and signing Correa last year,  delayed the necessary rebuild.  This management team hasn't had the opportunity at a true rebuild due to early unexpected success.   Now some of those players we traded last year could be helping are no longer available for future years.  I still have a feeling the Mahle trade is going to be a major blunder for the front office when we look back in a decade unless we can sign him long term or trade him at the deadline for a nice haul  I would like to see them remain competitive through mid season but tail off enough before trade deadline that they don't overspend again at the trade deadline.  What I want to see this year is if we can begin to slot in 4-5 key cogs from the young players that can allow us to be competitive in the very near future to add to Buxton.  Those that I will be watching (Miranda, Lewis, Larnach, Gordon, Kiriloff, Varland, Winder, Ober).   We may have a few other players pop up.  I am already considering Ryan and Duran as key pieces.  I also want to see another well run draft.  I also want to see significant progress in the minor leagues :).  I would also like to see us lock up 1-2 of the pitchers for the next 4-5 years.  Whether is Mahle or Gray.  Any other extensions for young players would be an added bonus.  

[Craig Arko]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Question: what is the biggest difference between the ‘21 Vikes and the ‘22 Vikes? Zimmer gone, KOC in.

We want to win more close games? Particularly with our roster that could be very generously described as “average”? Start with playing with excellent fundamentals and “steal” more wins than loses via better in-game management.  That begins and ends with Rocco.

I think there might be a correlation/causation question to be discovered here.

[TwinsGM]

Yes to all of this and since they have the money why not add Wacha and Fulmer (or Knebel) plus 1 more RH bat 

[oregontwin]

I admit to being an optimist. With luck. Yes, luck the young players who got their feet wet last season will be even better this year. With luck, we won't be bitten so hard by the injury bug in '23. I don't think any team in MLB could have successfully sustained the number of key injuries the Twins suffered last year. We should remember that on 5/31 the Twins were 10 games over .500 and on a pace to win 97. We would have thought that a pretty good season had they continued at that pace and won the division. The caveat, of course, is that they probably were not a World Series caliber team at that point. The two really good teams they had played. the Astros and Dodgers, had easily swept them. However, with luck they could be better this year without major changes to the team. We like to talk about player development, and this is how it happens.

[Malachi]

58 minutes ago, gman said:

At the start of last year we had Pagan and Duffy finishing out games. We turned quite a few wins into losses. Next year we will have Duran and Lopez to finish off games.  That could be a 5-6 game turn around right there. ++++++

Vazquez instead of Sanchez.  +

A return of a healthy Polanco,   +

More from Kirilloff, Larnach, Buxton, Jeffers, Gray, Ober. ++++

Maeda & Mahli instead of Bundy & Archer. ++

Miranda all year.  +

Gallo over Sano. +

More known commodities in Jax, Moran & Alcala. +++

Hopefully the same from Ryan, Arraez & Gordon. Should be +++

Lots of +'s.

Add Lewis and maybe Lee , Martin, Wallner, Julian,, ++++

Continued improvement from Varland, SWR, Winder, Henriquez. ++++

Improved health, improved upper level minors depth. Better 26 man roster overall. Should be a much better season.

Amazing Point

[bloomwcjkl]

15 more wins and 15 less losses would be a division winning team.

I think Pagan lost 10 games by himself last year, but that may just have been how it felt in those late inning blow ups.

No matter what, I'm looking forward to 2023 baseball.

[RJA]

So, what you are saying is if we are healthier, if we win more close games, if the young guys develop, if the starting rotation pitches up to their ability, if Lopez is really not trending back to where he was before his great half year with the Orioles and he and Duran close games, and if Chicago and Cleveland don't improve, we will have a good year.  I would add another if--if we can replace Correa in the lineup.  That is a powerful argument for having optismism this year!  Actually, I think there is room for improvement, but we sure could have done a lot more in free agency to strengthen your case.  Apparently the FO prefers to give up players rather than cash.  We have some great young prospects, but thus far, none of them have had a sustained period of performance.  Hopefully, that will come this year.  

[Doctor Gast]

1.) Health- Some of our injury was bad luck which I do believe will change. But most of it was managerial, hopefully Nick Paparesta can straighten them out. Once we figure that out that'll be a game changer. Having a team all rested, injury free through the season & everyone ready for post season.

2.) Youth- about what we had last season one more season under their belt will help.

3.) close game losses- dropping Duffy & Pagan as closers has  helped a ton & improve on #1 will also.

4.) Rotation- is a little better & deeper but if health management isn't incorporated we'll go down the same road, it'll might just take a little longer. If they plan to put Maeda in rotation on opening day. They have just taken that 1st step down that road.

5.) Division- I see it as tougher. Cleveland, their youth has become established. CWS, once their feet back under them after LaRossa's reign, will be tough (hopefully it'll take awhile)

6.) BP- most improvement

7.) Outfield- last year we had a pretty good & deep OF. Now with signing Gallo, seems like some bonehead move is brewing that'll effect this OF for the worse.

8.) INF- Right now. 3B - Miranda (questionable but hopeful); SS - Farmer (serviceable, great against LHPs, not against RHPs); 2B - Polanco (solid). Depth- 0 quality depth.

For us to even think about competing this year, we need to solve our INF problem by finding a legitimate platoon with Farmer. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, IA Bean Counter said:

What I want to see this year is if we can begin to slot in 4-5 key cogs from the young players that can allow us to be competitive in the very near future to add to Buxton.  Those that I will be watching (Miranda, Lewis, Larnach, Gordon, Kiriloff, Varland, Winder, Ober). 

Young players? Miranda(24), Lewis(23), Larnach(26), Gordon(27), Kiriloff(25), Varland(25), Winder(26), Ober(27)

I would say Lewis and Miranda could be considered young, but the rest are not young.

I mean Shane Bieber is like 1 month older than Ober and a year and a few months older than Winder.

Comparing the Twins to the Braves for example: Albies (25), Riley(25), Harris(21), Acuna(24), Grissom(21), Strider (23), Andrson(24)

 

[weitz41]

Yeah, but all of the division falling flat on their faces seems unlikely. Hold your breath till something good happens  isn't much of a plan..

[Vanimal46]

This article could be copied and pasted on the Tigers, Royals, Guardians, and White Sox baseball blogs too. 

[Mike Sixel]

22 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

This article could be copied and pasted on the Tigers, Royals, Guardians, and White Sox baseball blogs too. 

Not even close. Other than the Guardians, none of those teams were good at any point last year. 

[D.C Twins]

Hope is not a plan and we do NOT have great SP depth.... 

[strumdatjag]

It’s not just C4.  Losing Urshela is another minus.  Then again, losing Sano is a plus. Addition by subtraction.  

[SanoMustGo]

This team is not as young as many seem to think.  Most of our prospects are post 25...and injury prone.  Intangibles...forget it.  Not alot of quality depth in the bullpen. not a great inf defensively.  Lot's of poor situational hitting...and baserunning...lol.  Ohh, and the best player on the team will most likely spend 40-50% of the season injured. I'm calling for 85-90 losses.  This organization is far from competing.  We are 2-3 years away...at least.  Need a few more bad seasons to rebuild the system.  Forgot about the SP...average if healthy...below avg if injuries strike next season like last.   I was really optimistic going into last season.  Learned my lesson.  This team is not going to be very good.

[DocBauer]

First of all, having baseball of any sort is better than not having baseball.

I can't say I'm excited about 2023's W-L prospects as I've been pretty disappointed in the offseason thus far, even though I don't believe the FO is done yet. I firmly, 100% believe better health is the ABSOLUTE #1 key to 2023. 

1] I'm by no means giddy with excitement about our starting staff, but I DO like it. ZERO structural issues with Mahle, who has been pretty forthright in stating the weird offseason, no work with the team (Reds), followed by a shortened ST and then trying to do too much "tired" his arm. Did this all have a similar affect on Gray? He was pretty damn good when healthy. How much better could he have been without the nagging hamstring issues? How much better can Ryan become, and how much better might he have been if not for being knocked out by covid? Ober had his IP monitored in 2021 but flashed and finished strong. He looked good when on the mound last year. Could he also have been affected by the strange offseason and short ST? How good can he be with 26-28 GS? Reports last season had the Twins really optimistic about how Maeda looked, especially his control, which is often the last thing to come back.

I liked what I saw from Winder, generally, early in the year. Varland and SWR had really good milb seasons and certainly didn't look out of place in their debuts. Is it possible Dobnak's finger is healed and he can be a 6-9th SP option?

I'm nervous, but like the talent base and possible depth.

Even with Pagan still around...ugh...I like the foundation of the pen. I like it better if they add at least 1 more quality 7th-8th inning arm.

While I still like Jeffers and don't believe we've seen his full potential yet, I really like adding Vazquez to be the leader behind the plate.

My hunch is Miranda is going to be OK at 3B and continue to grow as a hitter. A healthy Polanco is a MAJOR KEY to the lineup. He was having a pretty good year until injuries stalled him. Can't forget batting champ Arraez! Can we be OK with Farmer at SS? Is there a way to improve there that doesn't cost too much and can allow him to be a super-sub? Are we better off taking a flier on someone like Andrus for a year? SS is, unfortunately, a potential issue for half, if not most of the year.

I'm not a big fan of Joey Gallo or his signing. But I've come around as to the potential he brings. He brings GG defense equivalent to Kepler...who still may be moved...and has been a full time, ML OF, since 2017. There's a lot of ways to be a productive offensive player. If you take away his nightmarish 2022 season in which he just never fit in or felt comfortable in NY or LA, he has a career OPS of .830. So if you squint past 2022 and look at his other 5 seasons since 2017, you can see the method in the madness of the signing.

We know who and what Buxton is and what he brings. I like the development of Gordon. A healthy, fully functioning Larnach and Kirilloff can be HUGE for 2023 and beyond. The talent is there. Is this their season to finally get right? I'd prefer Celestino and Wallner to begin the year at St Paul to smooth rough edges. I'd prefer Garlick to also be there as insurance because they'd still sign a better RH bat.

Someone posted recently that the Twins faced LHP about 30% of the time in 2022, starters and relievers. Pollack and Mancini might be the last 2 FA RH bats who could actually make a difference. Both bring power and the ability to hit LHP. Pollack can play both corners, and be an fill-in here and there at CF. Mancini is better at 1B, but is capable of playing some corner OF as well as Garlick, I'd say.

What I find so interesting, exciting, and equally frustrating is the Twins have actually been transitioning to the "next wave" since 2020 in various ways, but obviously with mixed and frustrating results due mostly to injury, as well as the customary, almost expected "learning curve". On the mound we've seen Ryan, Ober, Duran, Jax, and Moran begin to establish themselves. We've seen at least glimpses of Winder, Sands, Henriquez, Alcala, Varland, and SWR. Position wise it's been Arraez, Miranda, Gordon, Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers, Celestio, Lewis, and Wallner. And almost all of them have teased and flashed. Not all will be starters or stars, but they make up, potentially, a pretty good looking team if they can begin to come on together.

I think there's a lot to like and have anticipation for, veterans as well as young/younger talent. (Of course, kind of goes without saying there's at least a few more prospects to be excited about that haven't debuted yet but might be close).

But I'm not satisfied right now. I'm just assuming Correa isn't going to drop back in our laps again. And any difference maker is already gone from the FA market. BUT, there is $ to spend and still some solid players available to deepen and augment the team we "have now".

1] For goodness sake, WHY do we keep ignoring the need for a solid RH bat that can help make a difference? Could be another win or two! How about all those 1 run games we lost? Better health may be the #1 issue for this team, but how about that game or two we might win by having a good RH bat?

2] I think Moran and Alcala could have really good, even bright, futures in the pen. And we ABSOLUTELY have to have 1 or 2 guys for middle relief to bridge the gap from starters to back end of the pen. (HELLO Winder, Sands, Henriquez, and others), but why COUNT on Moran and Alcala from day one when you can deepen the entire staff as a WHOLE by building up the pen? The $ is there to make a difference.

3] I just don't know about SS. How many "possible trade" scenarios and options have been presented here on TD? But none offer difference makers. What's the prospect cost for an OK SS to fill in until Lewis or Lee are ready? I'm not crazy about trading, but it's an option if it can be done cheaply. But I dare say...even though it's not exciting in the least...the Twins might be better off with a 1yr deal for someone like Iglesias or Andrus to just hold the spot, not embarrass themselves or the lineup, and let Farmer be a nice utility guy. 

I think there IS reason for some optimism, as Ted has pointed out. If you missed out on a difference maker, then spend the $ available to add that RH bat, a BP arm or two, and MAYBE you can still add a place holder at SS somehow. Work harder on the fundamentals that seemed missing at times last year. (Of course, having something better than a AAA team on the field makes a difference there as well). Raise the team WAR by deepening the team. Win more of those 1 run games by deepening the team. 

But healthy veterans allowed to produce and healthy youngsters finally allowed to hit their stride is probably still the #1 key.

[joefish]

Analyze the bullpen management as it pertains to losing close games. 

[Brandon]

Hopefully we start signing some of these younger guys to long term contracts like Atlanta has done.  They have a great core in the starting lineup and they are locked up for the next 5+ years.  

[Mark G]

A lot has been said about competing within the division, and how the rest of the division stacks up vs. how we stack up.  We should also keep in mind that we don't get 76 games against this division anymore; we get 52.  Those extra 6 games against the Royals, Tigers, etc., are replaced by games against each division in both leagues that we haven't played before.  This extremely humble observer is as wary of the schedule change as I am wary of possible additions to the roster, or lack thereof.  Will it be a blessing, a curse, or will it matter at all?  ?

It will be interesting to see.  Stay tuned.........