Are the Twins Right in Trusting Miranda at the Hot Corner?

[Ted Schwerzler]

In 2022 the Minnesota Twins showed off a handful of their young talent. Some were by way of design, while others were out of necessity in response to injury. Arguably no one forced their way into action more than infielder Jose Miranda. In 2023, he’s a lock for the roster and now a prominent fixture. Are the Twins right in sticking him at the third base?

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Throughout the majority of his minor league career, Minnesota prospect Jose Miranda has played at third base. When he was eventually promoted to the big leagues in early 2022, it came with the caveat that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had acquired veteran Gio Urshela to be Rocco Baldelli’s third basemen. When Alex Kirilloff got hurt and Miguel Sano went down, there was some thought that Urshela could slide across the diamond, but instead it was Miranda who saw the bulk of his playing time there.

Although the Twins utilized both Miranda and Luis Arraez plenty at first base in 2022, the dealing of Urshela to the Los Angeles Angels suggests that the young Puerto Rican is destined to lock down the hot corner in 2023. How much should fans be worried about that reality?

The unfortunate truth for Minnesota is that their infield defense has not been good the past couple of seasons. In 2022, it was particularly bad. Minnesota fared fine as a whole defensively thanks to a strong outfield. They were held together on the dirt by superstar Carlos Correa, but the likes of Urshela, Arraez, Miranda, and Jorge Polanco were often culprits holding the club back.

Specifically looking at Miranda, he was what one may call a butcher at first base. Playing nearly 600 innings at first last season, Miranda posted an awful -6 defensive runs saved and Statcast agreed, attributing him a -4 outs above average number. Among 29 players to record at least 550 innings at first base last season, only the Rangers Nathaniel Lowe posted a lower DRS number. OAA had Miranda a bit better, but 20th still placed him in the bottom third of the league.

At third base, in a much smaller sample size, Miranda fared better. He recorded just under 250 innings at the hot corner and was neutral by both DRS and OAA on the season. That could be a positive thing, but small samples are also extremely difficult to read into when considering defensive metrics.

Now shifting across the diamond, Miranda will look to settle back into a role he grew familiar with on the farm. One caveat to that is he’ll be doing so alongside someone other than Correa (more than likely). Needing to acclimate to a new teammate, and their range, he’ll also be working in a season where the shift is banned for the first time. Positioning as a whole will be an entirely new exercise for Minnesota.

The Statcast data for Miranda is largely unhelpful at third base. He never reached the minimum threshold for arm strength calculations, and while he was credited with the greatest negative OAA value going towards third base, it was miniscule at best. We won’t know what Miranda is at third until he has more time to settle in there, but we can hope that the missteps at first base were largely related to learning a new position on the fly.

It would be disappointing to see a 24-year-old locked into first base so soon, and seeing him produce defensively at third base would help to calm those notions. Minnesota has options at first, and they are now counting on Miranda to be the guy at third. Here’s to hoping he can rise to the occasion.

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[Eris]

Interesting question as Miranda, barring a trade, will be a core fixture for the Twins for at least the next 5 years or so. 
 
Part of this depends on his work ethic.  There have been players who have worked hard and this resulted in going from below average to above average at the hot corner. Corey Koskie comes to mind. I would have thought that most 3B could slide across the diamond and do better at first base.  Miranda’s performance at 1B should be a huge flag. 

[Doctor Gast]

Miranda has the best mentor in Correa so we'll have to see at spring training, then we'll see how much we'll need Farmer.

Miranda did poorly his 1st call up. It was only because Lewis got hurt playing CF, that Miranda had his 2nd chance. If Lewis was used the same way as Miranda, Miranda would have spent most his time in AAA in '22.

[Blyleven2011]

With his experience in the minors at 3rd base and hopefully hard work this off season to improve his defense  , he should do fine  ...

Let the young players play and get the experience  ...

[Otaknam]

Miranda’s bat ensures his roster spot. Let’s hope he is dedicated to improving his defense and does lots of off season work. For context Koskie was in a similar situation and he became a solid defender. 

[mikelink45]

I think we will be fine.  One of the things that people don't talk about with the change in the shift is that the 3B does not have to cover SS.  The shift potentially put a lot of players in positions that they were not suited for.  I think we will be fine with Miranda.  He will continue to develop with more reps.  

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Short answer: No

Still too many variables left to be answered:  Will he regress at the plate?  Can he actually play 3B?  If they thought he could play 3B, why didn't give him more innings there last year?

I am not saying he won't, but putting all your eggs in one basket right now is foolish.  This topic needs to be revisited in February.

[jorgenswest]

Weren’t there similar concerns about Koskie’s range and arm accuracy? They were certainly rewarded for taking the risk of giving him a shot a third. I think Miranda will do the work to play a passable 3B.

[farmerguychris]

Since that is where he spent the majority of his time in the minors, it only makes sense to give him first shot there with Gio gone.  However, I'm more comfortable that I would be without Arraez and possibly Farmer also being able to play that position.  

 

[Fatbat]

Good thing Correa will be right next to him. Its gonna be a great infield in 2023!! ?

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I think we will be fine.  One of the things that people don't talk about with the change in the shift is that the 3B does not have to cover SS.  The shift potentially put a lot of players in positions that they were not suited for.  I think we will be fine with Miranda.  He will continue to develop with more reps.  

Good point.  His area to cover should be diminished with the shift changes.

[MGM4706]

Twins are going from having one of the best left sides in baseball to having an average left side. Miranda covers 2 feet to the left and 2 feet to the right with an average arm. Plus the league figured out he struggles with sliders  like Sano. Farmer is average at short. And with no signs of an upgrade in pitching the new left side will be even more of a liability allowing more balls through.

[joefish]

It is uncomfortably normal for us to be looking for our young guys to struggle and fail. Is it just the Minnesota mindset?

Personally I look for him to surprise us all offensively and defensively. Damn the data. 

[RJA]

So much depends on whether Correa is back.  If he is, or one of the other big 4 land here, I think there will be time sharing arrangements at first, second, third and DH.  Miranda will play third, but he will also DH some of the time, especially if his defense shows some signs for concern early on.  I think Farmer and Arraez could see time at third as well.  Kirilloff (hopefully) and Arraez could see time at first.  Polanco, Farmer, and Arraez could see time at second.  If Lewis is back during the summer, he, too, could see time at third as well as center.  Actually, the Twins have too many players for too few positions if Correa comes back, so I could see some players--Polanco, Larnach, Wallner, etc.--moved in trades.  Lee and Julien are probably on course to arrive sometime this summer as well, so it will be a really crowded infield.  It will be really fun to see how things stack up in spring training.  I can't wait.

[rv78]

Well, they have been trusting Buxton to be their centerfielder and he's only given them 1 full season in 8 years so what more do they have to lose?

[CRF]

I think he'll be ok. He won't be as good as Gio was last season, but he'll be serviceable. I'm assuming that he'll really work on his fielding, footwork, and throws to 1st. He'll improve as time goes on. I'm almost more concerned with his hitting. Will that at least be on the same level as this past season? Or will he regress at all? He was definitely slumping at the end of the season, and struggling with the low outside stuff. Can he adjust and hold his own at the plate? 

[Rosterman]

Great that he is going to work on defense with Correa this winter.

Miranda may not be the long-term third baeman, but should suffice for the short-term. He is why Strand was available for trade to the Rangers. Plus the influx of players from Martin, Lewis, Julien, Lee, Shuffield and others that need to find a home.

The Twins have to figure out Arraez longterm and where he can play best, or dangle him s a trade chip. Miranda could move to first and MAY be better there than...Arraez. Kirilloff also is in the mix for first.

I would not worry about third base for 2023.

[Oldtimer]

Outside of Polanco, there have been so many changes or "tryouts" for the various infield positions these past few years. An apparent cause for our less than effective infield defense.... Give 3rd base to Miranda and let him develop....there is so much talent there.

[rwilfong86]

2 hours ago, Oldtimer said:

Outside of Polanco, there have been so many changes or "tryouts" for the various infield positions these past few years. An apparent cause for our less than effective infield defense.... Give 3rd base to Miranda and let him develop....there is so much talent there.

It's kinda crazy to realize Polanco is the longest tenured infielder now on the Twins with Sano being gone. 

[rwilfong86]

4 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Great that he is going to work on defense with Correa this winter.

Miranda may not be the long-term third baeman, but should suffice for the short-term. He is why Strand was available for trade to the Rangers. Plus the influx of players from Martin, Lewis, Julien, Lee, Shuffield and others that need to find a home.

The Twins have to figure out Arraez longterm and where he can play best, or dangle him s a trade chip. Miranda could move to first and MAY be better there than...Arraez. Kirilloff also is in the mix for first.

I would not worry about third base for 2023.

The Twins would be nuts to trade Arraez, and for what it is worth, Arraez was a Gold Glove nominee this year so he was serviceable at first. 

[RpR]

The only place Miranda is guaranteed Third Base is on this forum.

[KBJ1]

Miranda at 3rd, hopefully the utility guy we picked up can back up 3rd as well.

If Kiriloff can't go at 1B we need to pick up a veteran 1B, Hosmer available??

[tarheeltwinsfan]

On 11/25/2022 at 9:54 AM, mikelink45 said:

I think we will be fine.  One of the things that people don't talk about with the change in the shift is that the 3B does not have to cover SS.  The shift potentially put a lot of players in positions that they were not suited for.  I think we will be fine with Miranda.  He will continue to develop with more reps.  

Good point Mike.