The Weirdest Move Minnesota Could Make

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins are soon going to be looking at decisions for 2023 with their offseason underway. They’ll have plenty of new faces for the upcoming year, but it’s one decision that could present the biggest head-scratcher of the past nine months.

 

Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Right before Opening Day 2022 Derek Falvey and Thad Levine sent Taylor Rogers to the San Diego Padres (along with Brent Rooker) in exchange for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan (as well as Brayan Medina). Without them ever suggesting as much, I think there’s a few reasons this deal was made.

Rogers was coming off an injury and lacking performance in 2021. He wasn’t going to be re-signed and was in the final year of his contract. Minnesota saw an opportunity to buy low on a high-ceiling starter pitcher, and they assumed risk, likely knowing his medical issues. Without Rogers in the fold, and Joe Smith being the only bullpen addition last winter, Pagan was targeted as a necessary add to the relief unit. He hadn’t been good for a while, but the stuff suggested it could play, and previous success with Tampa Bay was just two years away.

So, the decision (at least in a vacuum) to swing the deal from Minnesota’s perspective made sense. Now though, we know exactly how this has gone.

Rocco Baldelli was saddled with Pagan as his closer from the get-go. He made a negative impact in his second outing of the year, taking a loss against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Minnesota’s fifth game. His ERA ballooned to 5.34 by his 30th outing, and he wound up responsible for six losses and seven blown saves. Pagan was demoted from the closer role all the way to mop-up duty, and he constantly struggled even there. It was a complete disaster. Bought into by the front office, Baldelli had to deploy an arm that was at his disposal, even when the result became predictable.

From a few different sources within the front office and connected to the team, I have been told there had been some initial pushback from Pagan in regard to change. The Twins clearly saw an opportunity to get him right, or at least tap into analytically-driven numbers suggesting his stuff could play. Rather than embracing the information, he leaned on the belief that what he was doing could work, and the definition of insanity continued to play out for a period. I don’t know whether a lacking connection with former pitching coach Wes Johnson, or current coach Pete Maki, was ever an issue, but something changed.

Over his last 13 outings, dating back to August 23rd, Pagan has allowed a run just four times and none of those instances were crooked numbers. He owns a 2.16 ERA across 16 2/3 innings with an 21/8 K/BB and, most notably, just one home run. It seems he’s deployed a new pitch, and if it helps to keep the ball in the yard while limiting walks, everyone is better for it.

I’m not here to suggest that 13 outings is reason to keep Pagan around for 2023. What would make absolutely zero sense though, is to cut bait over the winter after hanging on through what the Twins did. The front office all but allowed Pagan to sink their season at critical junctures this season, and even with the cloud of dust that was 2022, his statistics are better than what they were when he was traded for. Making just $2.3 million this year, he’ll be due for a bump in arbitration, but the results should mute just how far it goes.

The Twins focus over the winter has to be figuring out how to marry their starting and relief pitching plans. Either acquire and develop better starters or create a lockdown bullpen. Keeping Pagan, at least to start the year, as a middle reliever would make sense. There’s no downside to that move, as long as there is a quicker hook when things go sideways.

There’s no reason the Twins should feel compelled to carry Pagan all of 2023, but in doing so through 2022, dumping him where he’ll likely be claimed on recent success alone at this point would be a suggestion of process gone entirely wrong.

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[MN_ExPat]

It's an interesting take Ted, and one that I don't necessarily disagree with.  Had multiple discussions this last year with my son (he's a college pitcher) about this very thing and we were of the opinion that "something" just wasn't right.  His "stuff" is great, the results... often not so much.

I would think that it wouldn't hurt to keep him in the fold (for now) and see if the end of the year tweaks can carry over.  I for one, wish him and the Twins the best of luck in this endeavor.  Baseball is tough even in the best of times, and I will not pile on a player's struggles simply just because I can.

[jorgenswest]

There will be many relievers available with a similar string of 13 outings. The inning sample is so small that it isn’t meaningful and should be ignored. The Twins should at three seasons of work with more weight to the last full season for a reliever. Pitch level data like Parker tweeted is important and may be encouraging but Pagán has shown good pitch numbers previously.

Command is the key for Pagán. It shows up with his balls inside and outside the zone. The result is walks as well as hard hit balls when he misses his target in the zone. Is there any reason to believe that is fixed? 

[Linus]

1 minute ago, jorgenswest said:

There will be many relievers available with a similar string of 13 outings. The inning sample is so small that it isn’t meaningful and should be ignored. The Twins should at three seasons of work with more weight to the last full season for a reliever. Pitch level data like Parker tweeted is important and may be encouraging but Pagán has shown good pitch numbers previously.

Command is the key for Pagán. It shows up with his balls inside and outside the zone. The result is walks as well as hard hit balls when he misses his target in the zone. Is there any reason to believe that is fixed? 

This. He has stuff, hell so does Megill. What neither have is command which is WAY more important than stuff

[DJL44]

He made an adjustment. The league will catch up eventually but they might get some good innings out of him in the meantime.

[mikelink45]

He pitched low impact innings and often gave up at least a walk and a hit.  No he is not to be trusted and if we lose another season with him it is on the FO.  Cut bait, move on, let someone else unleash the mighty Pagan. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. 

[tony&rodney]

Mistakes happen. Learning is key. Repeating mistakes indicates a lack of learning. If the Twins are going to run out a budget of $150 million plus next season. there is no huge financial harm in stringing along the San Diego acquisitions until a decision needs to be made between them or another player. If not, cut both of them.

[jmlease1]

Lol, I'd say the weirdest move the Twins could make is picking up Sano's option. (which would be a huge mistake, IMHO and exceptionally unlikely) but the more that I think about it, there's a lot of parallels. It's easy for people who are either too close to the situation or very far away from it to find justifications for both. Pagan's peripherals show the talent. Sano's hard-hit balls do the same. Pagan needed to make a significant adjustment to his pitch mix, Sano needs to get healthy. You can find ways to spin it.

But I think it's a tough sell for the team. Pagan had so many implosions that he's in Colome territory: even if he could be a quality and effective pitcher again, the wounds are probably too deep here. (Colome looks like he's washed, but it wouldn't surprise me much if he signs somewhere and turns in a solid season as a set up guy) Sano has had so many ABs where he's looked helpless at the plate and piled up the Ks that this just seems like the wrong place to try and fix him.

It's lower risk to hang on to Pagan; relievers are fungible and his arbitration number isn't going to be all that big ($3M?). But this is the 3rd straight season he's had a negative WPA, and there really isn't anything to suggest he's been particularly unlucky. You're wagering a lot of fan psychic energy on a small sample size, with low-leverage outings are contrasted with a change in approach.

I think we should move on. We need the roster spot for someone who can eat more than 1 inning consistently, and there's too much baggage and risk in Pagan.

[LastOnePicked]

For some reason, we never seem to look at the psychological aspects of player performance. They're very hard to pinpoint or quantify, I know, and they don't make for good analytics. But the issue with Pagan sure seems to be the yips.

Did he perform better after the new breaking ball, or because he was relegated to low-leverage situations by the time he showed improvement? I am no expert, but when Pagan was getting shelled, it wasn't so much his pitch selection as location. He would serve up extra-base hits right down the heart of the plate. No MLB relief pitcher does that unless they're mentally distracted or rattled. 

In fact, I think the Twins as a team have the yips, and have had them for a few years. They seem to do okay in no-pressure situations. But in high-pressure situations, we seem to see a lot of bad a bats, a lot of bad pitch location and a lot of errors in the field. When the Twins play the Astros, Yankees or Dodgers, they play like they're afraid.

This is a layman's take and could be ridiculous. But bringing back Pagan to ruin games for this club again in 2023 - unless rebuilding, or unless there's some clear strengthening of the mental aspect of his game - seems even more ridiculous.

[farmerguychris]

Absolutely not interested in bringing him back.  Time for someplace new for him.  Rough numbers in San Diego, rough numbers here - would rather have Austidillo back and throwing pitches for us.  There is nothing he can do for me to want him on our team - numbers show one of the worst relievers that past 2 years.  Why would we even consider this?

[Original_JB]

"The Weirdest Move Minnesota Could Make"

Well, I guess they could ask for a new, domed stadium.....

[Nashvilletwin]

Given the lack of hubris with this FO, it would certainly not be weird.  More like predictable.

 

 

 

[rv78]

Would the Weird Move be in keeping him or getting rid of him? It seems you are suggesting it would be in keeping him. That wouldn't be weird for this organization. They seem to embrace mediocrity. They also have not moved on, even with a different regime in control, of the Terry Ryan theory of buying low and using the "Hope and a Prayer" for an improved season from most of the cast-offs they do sign. (Shoemaker, Happ, Colome, Archer, Simmons, Garlick, Beckham). Weird would be signing Correa to a long-term contract and also signing a top Free Agent Starting Pitcher during the off-season. Then we'd all be scratching our heads.

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

. 

 I think the Twins as a team have the yips, and have had them for a few years. They seem to do okay in no-pressure situations. But in high-pressure situations, we seem to see a lot of bad a bats, a lot of bad pitch location and a lot of errors in the field. When the Twins play the Astros, Yankees or Dodgers, they play like they're afraid.

 

Couldn't agree more on the yips  ,,, 

It's a mental and  physical game and the mental approach doesn't seem to be working  .. 

And it starts with the manager and  coaches ...

[Doctor Gast]

Good take Ted, one I was thinking about since looking at Pagan recent turn around. I think a lot of Pagan's lack of command is related to the pressure of the high leverage situation. Management doubling down on him multiplied the pressure on him. 

Pagan has promise, if managed correctly, he could be useful. I wouldn't DFA him unless we are desperate to add someone to the 40 man.

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Pagan has promise, if managed correctly, he could be useful. I wouldn't DFA him unless we are desperate to add someone to the 40 man.

But they have already said they aren't changing anything about how he'll be managed in 2023.

Find another team even more absorbed in the spreadsheet and convince them he's a stud based on the last 2 months. Trade him to that team for someone else.

[FlyingFinn]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

But this is the 3rd straight season he's had a negative WPA

I would get rid of him because we have a long-term trend. Certainly wouldn't bring him back for $3 million. $1 million maybe.

I would shout about these last 13 outings from the mountain top and get anything you can in a trade.

[D.C Twins]

If the desire is to build a championship team, then no, no it is not OK to bring back Pagan.

If the desire is to try and save face for the FO and/or tread water for yet another year, then sure have at it and bring him back.

But, if they do, they need to understand that they are answering their own question about where all the fans went

[spanman2]

1 hour ago, Original_JB said:

"The Weirdest Move Minnesota Could Make"

Well, I guess they could ask for a new, domed stadium.....

IALTO!!!

[Rosterman]

Pagan is the perfect example of arbitration failure. SHould he get a substantial raise after two seasons of sub-par pitching? Why!

Bad enough that you can't cut a player's salary, but must offer a modest raise.

[Natron]

After giving the definition of insanity, two paragraphs later we see:

"What would make absolutely zero sense though, is to cut bait over the winter after hanging on through what the Twins did."

Then Ted says we shouldn't base decisions off of 13 appearances, after the preceding blog uses those exact 13 appearances as justification for potentially keeping him around. 

I mean, what what are we doing here? This a crazy blog, man. Wacky.

Keeping Pagan around would simply be a move to placate the Falvine ego,  not acknowledge another bad bullpen acquisition, and move on from it. The definition of insanity.

[Battle ur tail off]

Tell him you will pay him well less than he would get in arbitration or he will be non-tendered. If he wants to come back at that and be the very last option in the bullpen to start fine, if not, just cut him. If this guy is on my roster, I want him to know flat out that he will produce, or he is getting DFAed. "Hey bud, we will give you a million dollars next year if you are open to the possibility that you are the very first MFer DFA'd if you don't produce. That said, let him know that if he does produce, he could work himself back into a high leverage role. After that tell him take it or leave it. 1 mill or we will non-tender. See ya. No one else will match his arbitration numbers. He is a minor league signing with an invite to spring training type of guy.

If indeed the FO goes to arbitration with him and tenders him a deal, this would be another example of the front office using spreadsheets over eyes and brains. He hurts our chance to win. Almost every time he steps on the mound. I would rather have anyone in our entire system take the rubber than this guy. 

Also, if you don't think retaining him has a negative effect on both the team and the fans, you aren't paying attention. Bring this guy back and EVERYONE will know it's more of the same. 

[DJL44]

57 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Tell him you will pay him well less than he would get in arbitration or he will be non-tendered.

That's the same as a non-tender and a free agent offer. I understand wanting to "punish" a player for performing badly by cutting his pay but a 1 year $3M contract for Pagan isn't going to make a bit of difference in next season's budget. If you want him pay him, if not cut him.

The real cost of Pagan is he fills a roster spot which might be better used on a different pitcher.

[DJL44]

There are weirder moves they could make. They once played Miguel Sano in the outfield.

[Battle ur tail off]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That's the same as a non-tender and a free agent offer. I understand wanting to "punish" a player for performing badly by cutting his pay but a 1 year $3M contract for Pagan isn't going to make a bit of difference in next season's budget. If you want him pay him, if not cut him.

The real cost of Pagan is he fills a roster spot which might be better used on a different pitcher.

I get what you are saying. And what I am saying is basically, I only want you if you will play for peanuts. If you won't, then good luck. There are always bottom feeder teams that would love to give you an invite to their spring training. 

Agree on the roster spot. Even if Pagan will play for nothing, I'm not sure it's worth wasting that spot on him when we have a whole pile of youngsters just about ready to break into the league.

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Lol, I'd say the weirdest move the Twins could make is picking up Sano's option. (which would be a huge mistake, IMHO and exceptionally unlikely) but the more that I think about it, there's a lot of parallels. It's easy for people who are either too close to the situation or very far away from it to find justifications for both. Pagan's peripherals show the talent. Sano's hard-hit balls do the same. Pagan needed to make a significant adjustment to his pitch mix, Sano needs to get healthy. You can find ways to spin it.

But I think it's a tough sell for the team. Pagan had so many implosions that he's in Colome territory: even if he could be a quality and effective pitcher again, the wounds are probably too deep here. (Colome looks like he's washed, but it wouldn't surprise me much if he signs somewhere and turns in a solid season as a set up guy) Sano has had so many ABs where he's looked helpless at the plate and piled up the Ks that this just seems like the wrong place to try and fix him.

It's lower risk to hang on to Pagan; relievers are fungible and his arbitration number isn't going to be all that big ($3M?). But this is the 3rd straight season he's had a negative WPA, and there really isn't anything to suggest he's been particularly unlucky. You're wagering a lot of fan psychic energy on a small sample size, with low-leverage outings are contrasted with a change in approach.

I think we should move on. We need the roster spot for someone who can eat more than 1 inning consistently, and there's too much baggage and risk in Pagan.

The same thing was said about Colome last year when his potential return was being floated about. You're right, move on, the payoff is minimal. He can be another team's reclamation project and their fans can be beaten over the head with redemption arc write ups that laud his "stuff." 

[Wizard11]

I have to wonder how the rest of the roster that played with Pagan this year would feel about him coming back? Twins players watched him play a huge role in tanking their season.  What is the message to them if he is still wearing a Twins uniform next year?  To me his “potential” is not worth the ill will that would occur for players and fans.

Their seems to an institutional fear for the Twins and some fans that they may let a player go who thrives elsewhere (aka Ortiz Syndrome).  Yet every team has this happen to some extent.

Their will be plenty of other over 30 relievers available without the dark team history of Pagan.  Move on already.

[gman]

(My name is Emilio Pagan and I approved this message. Along with a really big fat paycheck.)?

 

Now that would be really weird!

[rv78]

3 hours ago, Natron said:

After giving the definition of insanity, two paragraphs later we see:

"What would make absolutely zero sense though, is to cut bait over the winter after hanging on through what the Twins did."

Then Ted says we shouldn't base decisions off of 13 appearances, after the preceding blog uses those exact 13 appearances as justification for potentially keeping him around. 

I mean, what what are we doing here? This a crazy blog, man. Wacky.

Keeping Pagan around would simply be a move to placate the Falvine ego,  not acknowledge another bad bullpen acquisition, and move on from it. The definition of insanity.

This exactly why I asked the question, would keeping him be Weird or getting rid of him. Seems like Ted was playing both sides of the fence so I really didn't see which way he was referring to.