Does 100 Games of Buxton Work?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins are 35 games into their 2022 Major League Baseball season. Star centerfielder Byron Buxton has played in just 23 of them, or 65.7%. That’s apparently a threshold both parties (team and player) intend to uphold, but what does that look like when the dust settles?

It became clear following a Saturday night game against the Cleveland Guardians, in which Byron Buxton should’ve been called upon to pinch-hit, that rest and caution remain paramount for the organization. Rocco Baldelli has consistently rested players with the hopes of keeping them fresh, and while the current state of Minnesota’s Injured List would suggest that as not bearing fruit, it also doesn’t appear as something the organization will move off of.

Relating to Buxton specifically, he’s dealing with the same right knee soreness that immediately looked like a season-ending injury. Sliding into second base, he punched the ground in anguish and a question as to whether his knee was torn up immediately came into question. Returning to the lineup less than a week later, he’s still dealing with the after-effects, even if an MRI revealed no serious damage.

It’s not as though Buxton hasn’t been productive. Quite the opposite actually, as he’s been a monster through the 23 games he has been on the field. Buxton owns a .259/.330/.706 slash line and is just one homer shy of the American League lead with 11. He’s yet to triple but does have five doubles to his credit, and a few recent walks make the 28/6 K/BB ratio more workable. Through 134 innings in the outfield, Buxton has been worth 1 Defensive Run Saved and 2 Outs Above Average.

Following Sunday’s game against the Guardians, one in which Buxton was back in centerfield and Minnesota won, he said, "We've got a process, process of me staying on the field, trying to play 100 games. So however that looks, who knows? But that's what we have, a plan here, and it's what we're going to stick to."

As unfortunate or disappointing as that may be, it’s clear that Buxton is in lockstep with manager Rocco Baldelli regarding that plan. After the loss to the Guardians on Saturday night, Minnesota’s manager said in regards to the decision against pinch-hitting Buxton, “"It wasn't going to be an option. Ultimately, we discussed that as a group, but ultimately I make that decision. When we make the decision before the game, we don't change what we're going to do when the game gets going."

Those notes in conjunction with one another suggest the Twins are firmly set in a plan to have Buxton play right around 60% of their games this season. The good news is that even through that few contests, extrapolating his numbers gets a gaudy amount of production. You’d be looking at something like 21 doubles, 47 homers, and 7.4 fWAR. Putting up those statistics in 162 games would be generous for most. If Buxton was able to continue that pace over just 100, it would be nothing short of unfathomable.

On the defensive side of things, it may be hard to find the same rhythm. Buxton has been worth just one DRS thus far and contributed only 2 OAA. Gilberto Celestino has done an amazing job filling in, so maybe it matters less, but Buxton’s Gold Glove prowess is always going to be missed.

When looking at this decision by Minnesota, there are a couple of things to consider. First and foremost is that not all players can operate as a designated hitter, or without being constantly involved in the game flow. Buxton has suffered without playing the field, and missing over one-third of the games will certainly threaten any attempt to create consistency. The other problem is the assumption that disjointed time off will prevent further injury or advance healing. After all, Buxton was injured on a play where he slid into second base, and also suffered an injury running to first base following a dropped third strike. It’s not as if he’s being threatened in instances that won’t routinely present themselves. His body may simply be less durable than others, and that leaves him susceptible in all capacities.

Maybe most interesting here is who the Twins have as a manager. Baldelli himself was on a path to being one of baseball's best players and constant injuries derailed his career. Buxton certainly is involved throughout this planning process, as is Baldelli, but the front office must be clued in too. The Twins training staff is probably weighing in with their expertise, and we don't completely know what the injury was given the designation simply being soreness. Maybe this is something Baldelli himself has implored Buxton to consider knowing what consistent injury and health issues can do to the overall length of a playing career.

What do you think? Are the Twins actually able to prevent further injury by trying to avoid consistent games played? Does Buxton benefit from time down to heal completely? What should happen here?

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[Cap'n Piranha]

The goal should absolutely not be 100 games for Buxton--I find acceptance of that concept asinine.  If Buxton is healthy, he should certainly be able to play 5 out of every 6 games, at a bare minimum--that correlates to 135 games, which means he could have 3 stints on the 10 day IL, and still play 105 games (more if the 10 day stint comes during a 10 day stretch where the Twins have at least one day off--not exactly rare).

As such, if the Twins are not willing to play Buxton at that rate, he should be on the IL getting nothing but rest and recovery, especially given the big step forward Celestino has taken this year, providing a legitimate option at CF if Buxton is not there.  In fact, part of me wonders if perhaps Buxton should be moved to LF full time, with Celestino the everyday CF even if Buxton is healthy.  When Larnach comes back, he can play 2-3 times a week in LF, and 2-3 times at DH.

[Riverbrian]

I was sleeping during med school and I don't have access to the information necessary to have an opinion. 

I will always rely upon those who make these types of decisions for a living. 

[Squirrel]

We’ve actually had quite the discussion in the forums the last couple of days. 

[jorgenswest]

They are managing this current knee injury with this schedule. Since the injury his OPS is over 1000 and he has been responsible for a few wins. It seems like a much better course than to try to fix it with a long stay on IL.

I don’t know if this means they need to continue this path through the season. More likely it depends on the swelling in his knee. If it subsides he will play more. If not they need to try to keep him playing 4 times a week.

[Doctor Gast]

I'm very happy with whatever amount of time Buxton is in the line-up. Baidelli isn't resting Buxton because he's not tired, he's managing Buxton time based on the degree of discomfort on any given game. Buxton should eventually recover from his banged up knee & hip, so he could play more games than what you've stated. But if it doesn't or if he has a different accident, I'd be very content with that if he's 100% coming into post season.

[Adam Krueger]

To me, the logic of it is completely flawed. Playing him less, giving him more rest, doesn't actually reduce his chances of getting hurt. He gets hurt playing baseball - not necessarily from the wear and tear of playing everyday. Another way of putting it - he gets hurt running into walls, and sliding into bases...its not the strain of playing that gets him hurt, it is his 100% all-out style. So, he'll play 100 games (maybe?) and miss out on playing 25-30 games that he would otherwise have been fine to play...and it will have made no difference. The other scenario is that he continues to rest 35% of the time, and runs into the center field wall in June (or something like that) and is out the rest of the season. Resting him up to that point will have made no difference.

[Craig Arko]

I'm curious to hear proposals for alternatives. Maybe with some reasoning to back them up.

Otherwise, I'll just say 100+ games is better than less than 100.

[PDX Twin]

19 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

As such, if the Twins are not willing to play Buxton at that rate, he should be on the IL getting nothing but rest and recovery, especially given the big step forward Celestino has taken this year, providing a legitimate option at CF if Buxton is not there.  In fact, part of me wonders if perhaps Buxton should be moved to LF full time, with Celestino the everyday CF even if Buxton is healthy.  When Larnach comes back, he can play 2-3 times a week in LF, and 2-3 times at DH.

What if that's not the nature of his injury? We are accustomed to players getting completely hurt and getting completely healed. It doesn't always happen that way. Are there are injuries that allow less-than-full activity without further degradation, but wouldn't be fully rehabilitated with full rest? I think so. I nursed my balky knees through 10 seasons as a soccer referee by working 5-6 games a week rather than 10-12.

[4twinsJA]

Regarding the DH numbers, being a DH is harder than you would think. Harder to stay mentally in games, get out of regular routine of moving in/out of dugout, keeping loose in preparation to hit. Cruz had it down pat, but DH was his fulltime role. I would not be surprised to see significantly lower batting stats when regular position players DH. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

5 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

What if that's not the nature of his injury? We are accustomed to players getting completely hurt and getting completely healed. It doesn't always happen that way. Are there are injuries that allow less-than-full activity without further degradation, but wouldn't be fully rehabilitated with full rest? I think so. I nursed my balky knees through 10 seasons as a soccer referee by working 5-6 games a week rather than 10-12.

Are we saying that this is just at this point a chronic thing, and Buxton will always be injured, and never fully healthy?  For a guy who gets a fair bit of his value from speed, that seems alarming.  When you say you nursed your balky knees through 10 seasons, is it possible that had you taken a month off with full rest, they would have gotten better?  Or did you just assume they would never get better, but mitigated them getting worse by reducing your activity?

[Eris]

If you were to subtract of the 5 games Buxton mixed following his knee injury the figure would be 23/30, which equates to 124 games for the season. 

[Harrison Greeley III]

He's being paid like a superstar that plays half the season. In my head I went into the season thinking everything north of 80 games is gravy. 

It's hard to overstate how great it is that Celestino is holding his own at the plate this year while playing plus defense. Buxton's bat is now his most important asset and probably will be throughout the remainder of his career. Increasing the chances of at least 120 games with that bat in the lineup is crucial. 

[Brandon]

I would think 100 to 115 or so games in CF and another 10-25 games at DH.  That would put Buxton in line for 120-130 games.  That would be an improvement over past seasons.  I do think his current DH numbers are SSS and will improve. Since Buxton has already missed 12 games this would be a great outcome for this season.

[Squirrel]

I said this in another thread:

 

[Dman]

I guess for me I want what is best for Byron Buxton.  I am not a doctor and don't know how best to treat his knee injury but it seems like extended rest to heal it would make the most sense.  Still I get there are incentives to try and reach and maybe complete rest does little more than lighter activity with longer periods of rest when possible.  I don't know.  I just hope that Buxton and the Twins do what is best for his long term health.

I don't know if I have watched a more exciting Twins player than Buck.  Maybe Pucket in his hey day as a centerfielder?  I just love what he brings to this team.  I am not much of a risk taker and I would want to make sure that knee is in better shape before putting him out there.  While Celestino doesn't have Buck's power he has been pretty solid at the plate and in the field.  Certainly not the drop off we have had in years past.  We could rely on him for while if needed.

I just don't love the idea of having him out there and not 100% especially with a knee issue.  I am sure it has been discussed and all parties are fine with the plan that is in place.  I just hope it is the best plan for long term health not for monetary incentives or the win lose column.

 

[wabene]

2 hours ago, Adam Krueger said:

To me, the logic of it is completely flawed. Playing him less, giving him more rest, doesn't actually reduce his chances of getting hurt. He gets hurt playing baseball - not necessarily from the wear and tear of playing everyday. Another way of putting it - he gets hurt running into walls, and sliding into bases...its not the strain of playing that gets him hurt, it is his 100% all-out style. So, he'll play 100 games (maybe?) and miss out on playing 25-30 games that he would otherwise have been fine to play...and it will have made no difference. The other scenario is that he continues to rest 35% of the time, and runs into the center field wall in June (or something like that) and is out the rest of the season. Resting him up to that point will have made no difference.

The part you are missing is they are not keeping him out to avoid injury, they are managing an existing injury.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

They have always played him daily with very few off days and then put him on the IL after getting injured.  This plan is a new way to approach this and I give them credit for trying something different.  Let's see how this works and go from there.  Plans are made to be adjusted if they are not working.

[jorgenswest]

4 hours ago, Adam Krueger said:

To me, the logic of it is completely flawed. Playing him less, giving him more rest, doesn't actually reduce his chances of getting hurt. He gets hurt playing baseball - not necessarily from the wear and tear of playing everyday. Another way of putting it - he gets hurt running into walls, and sliding into bases...its not the strain of playing that gets him hurt, it is his 100% all-out style. So, he'll play 100 games (maybe?) and miss out on playing 25-30 games that he would otherwise have been fine to play...and it will have made no difference. The other scenario is that he continues to rest 35% of the time, and runs into the center field wall in June (or something like that) and is out the rest of the season. Resting him up to that point will have made no difference.

My understanding of the situation is very different.

My understanding is that he is hurt. He has hurt his knee. They are managing the swelling by getting him enough rest when needed. If the other option is to put him on the IL to recover I prefer this option. He has had a positive impact on many games since he was injured in Boston.

[JW24]

33 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

They have always played him daily with very few off days and then put him on the IL after getting injured.  This plan is a new way to approach this and I give them credit for trying something different.  Let's see how this works and go from there.  Plans are made to be adjusted if they are not working.

I agree with this and would add that we won't know how successful this is until the end of the season. Assuming this Twins team is for real and makes the playoffs, how many games Buxton plays in from Opening Day until the end of the season doesn't much matter so long as he is healthy for Game 1 of the ALDS.

A planned day off in April/May with the expectation he is in the lineup in every must-win game in September and October seems like a reasonable approach at the moment.

[The Mad King]

This isn't Donaldson's "calf issues." Bux gets himself injured in a myriad of ways. Crashing into walls, ok those are legit. But once you've had a concussion, they tend to reoccur much easier. But let's face it, that man is accident prone. Hit by pitches because he awkwardly tries to avoid them. Sliding into bases. Eating a steak. Sure, rest him throughout the year so he's healthy for the playoffs, only to slip in the shower and break an arm...

I said it in the other thread, nobody can control what happens. Someone way wiser than me once said "tomorrow isn't guaranteed." 

[mikelink45]

I have no idea of the number of games - when he is hurt sit him, when he is healthy play him.  That is as simple as I can see the solution.  Arbitrary off days when he is fine make no sense, playing him when he is hurt does not either.  But then it depends on the injury and if he can pinch hit when we need him, then why stay with the stubborn off day decision?

[DocBauer]

Only Buxton and the Twins know best how he feels day to day. His knee could have to be monitored in this fashion all season. It's also very possible that with the weather finally warming up to normal, and a few days off here and there, along with a few DH days, plus the All Star break, his knee might just get better and better over the next month or so. 

As someone who has an acceptable but "bum" knee...I wear a sleeve when I go for a long walk and the occasional jog for stability...I know first hand the warmer month are way more kind to me.

As to him as a DH, he hasn't done it much, we're talking a SSS, it might feel more routine as he does it more. Also, if he isn't doing it already, he might take a page out of Cruz's notebook and hit the exercise bike here and there between innings to keep himself loose and warmed up. But as much as Rocco and the Twins want to follow their maintenance plan with Buck, unless his knee has really flared up on a given day, I find it inexcusable to not have him available to PH in the 9th or 10th inning in a crucial spot instead of someone struggling to hit .200. Again, unless it's a bad day, he should stretch out, loosen up, warm up on an an exercise bike, to get him ready for a PH opportunity in games it looks like it may be needed.

I absolutely want what's best for him for this year, next year, and all the years yet to come. But if you told me general maintenance would give Buck 100-110 games in CF, another 20-25 as a DH, (unless he just stinks there), I'd be ecstatic with those 130-140ish games.

[Scott51104]

I was very pleasantly surprised that Buxton was not injured while crashing into the fence a few days ago. I felt that one from here.

[blindeke]

It turns out there are a whole lot of expert doctors out there on the internet.