Cap'n Piranha

Because winning a game on an HBP, a balk, and then two groundouts is so much better?

I agree with what seems to be the consensus here--the Twins should wait for the deadline to add talent via trade, unless they can somehow pull off a steal on the AJ-for-Liriano/Nathan level. The farm system actually has a pretty nice collection of potential top-end talent (Lewis, Lee, Prielipp, Salas, and Rodriguez all have all-star potential, and all of them could be in the bigs by 2024/2025 if things break right). As such, I think the Twins should let the current roster start the year, and re-assess in early June as to what the true needs for 2023 are.

Agreed that the plan is to buy time with some combo of Kepler/Gallo/Gordon/Celestino as the CF backups until Lewis gets back. With Correa here for the next 6 years, my guess is that Lewis is no longer going to be thought of as an IF within the org, but will transition full time to the OF as hopefully a gold glove caliber guy in RF/LF and a high level Buxton backup in CF. Miranda will be at third for the next 3-4 years, with Lee either replacing him or Polanco, and Martin/Julien taking the role of super subs. At least that's how the FO wants it to play out, I imagine.

Unless in jest, this is a breathtaking misunderstanding of baseball statistics.

You again miss the part where, despite appearing in a lousy offense (as you yourself pointed out), Arraez was top 30 in all of MLB for runs.

That would be Nelson Cruz. I’m sure the Twins would have no difficulties in signing him.

This is particularly hilarious given your stance in a different thread that the Twins should bring back Miguel Sano, based on the production he’s had IN THE PAST.

Yes, Sano's .345 OPS would have been quite the boon in pushing Arraez around the bases.

Which was 29th most in all of MLB, and represents 12.6% of all the Twins runs. Perhaps Arraez would have scored more runs with better hitters behind him.

It's a lot easier to score runs when there are guys on base. Guys who hit for average tend to be on base a lot.

Why not sign Kent Hrbek? He also has a career OPS above .800 (.848 to be exact), so we've seen he can do it too.

Why would we put hope in Sano, when we could go get a freely available righty bat with the below 162 games average? 37 HR, 87 R, 105 RBI, .859 OPS? He also had an OPS above .800 more recently than Sano, and drastically outperformed Sano in 2022.

Cal Ripken career OPS+ by month, with each month having at least 1700 PAs Mar/Apr--101 May--101 Jun--106 Jul--108 Aug--95 Sep/Oct--90

I never implied he wouldn't be healthier. I implied it's silly to think, as you said, that Byron Buxton's injury history has no bearing on his injury future.

I believe in Byron Buxton. I do not believe in Byron Buxton’s health. Unfortunately, the impact of the former is controlled by the latter.

Good point. Everyone knows that humans get less injury prone as they age.

The Twins should do in essence a 3 part contract with Correa; Part 1: 3 years, $120M, followed by a player opt-out Part 2: 2 years, $70M, followed by a team option with a $15M buy-out (payable across two years, disappears if Correa signs a deal in excess of 4 years, $100M, or $30M in AAV) Part 3: 3 years, $90M Correa gets another shot at FA (if he wants to), while the Twins max their investment at $205M ( in the years Correa should be healthy/producing)

MLB will not find the parity most posters seem to desire until one thing changes. Unless a method for ensuring the same amount of money is made whether a team wins or loses, teams will always find ways to make money by losing (unless of course teams make more money by winning).

Not quite. This assumes that each team pays 26, and only 26, players MLB wages. Anytime a player is on the IL, this of course raises that number. It's much more likely that over the course of the season, a team will pay the equivalent of 30-32 MLB players. That puts the average salary somewhere between $5.7M and $6.1M at a 50% share. I'll leave aside the conversation of whether a 50/50 split of all profits is "fair".

Completely disagree. It’s time for a rebuild, and someone other than Falvine should be the architect. They’ve had 7 off-seasons, 4 of which presented clear need for upgrades combined with clear payroll space, and the sum total of their moves is 4 years of Josh Donaldson (only 2 of which happened), and 1 year of Correa that was handed to them on a platter. They’re never going to do what it takes to turn this team into a true contender, so I’d rather be done with them now.

I mean, not to quibble or anything, but if you have positive WAR, you are by definition not below replacement level.

The Giants may indeed get a near-zero return on their $27M for 3-5 years in the future. But they may also get a $40M-$60M return on their $27M for 8-10 years now. Seems like something that could very well happen in the "real world".

Lewis was questionable to stick at short before the first ACL injury, let alone the second. Lee was also iffy as a future short before the draft. We can hope that at least one if not both ultimately can be a competent defensive SS at the MLB level, but if I had to put a bet on it, I'd wager neither will be as good as Polanco was at short, which is to say, not particularly good.

It's actually a very good strategy to identify what traits good players have in common, and then look for those attributes in "not good" players. What this FO has failed at too many times in my opinion is to identify what traits good players don't have, and avoid "not good" players who do have those traits.

Because the Giants want Correa for the first 6-8 years of the contract, but didn't want to pay $40M-$50M in AAV. They pay less per year, for more years, freeing up space under the luxury tax to hand out more big contracts, while knowing that $27M in 2030-2035 is more like $20M-$22M today, while the average payroll in MLB might be $250M.