Front Page: Offseason Blueprint: Hooking a Big Fish

[Mike Sixel]

 

More of what? Payroll flexibility? High upside, low risk, affordable players?

The Twins will never spend enough to reel in the big fish.
Smart, savvy, affordable, high upside players (and a lot of them) with hopefully a few prospects that flourish at the right time is gonna be the key to serious contention, in my opinion. That *is* the future for the Twins. Getting locked into long term contracts is a death sentence for small market teams.

Minor is one example. Sonny Gray is another. It would take a good prospect haul, but he's financially affordable. Both have tremendous upsides and well within the Twins price range.

 

It's hard to argue they need payroll flexibility in the same post you argue they shouldn't sign players to long term deals.....what good is payroll flexibility if you won't use it?

 

How do you propose they fill four-seven rotation spots this off season, without spending money (and still be a great team)?

[ChiefsKid]

It's hard to argue they need payroll flexibility in the same post you argue they shouldn't sign players to long term deals.....what good is payroll flexibility if you won't use it?

 

How do you propose they fill four-seven rotation spots this off season, without spending money (and still be a great team)?

I already proposed it. Sign Bumgarner and Odorizzi and trade for Mike Minor and Sonny Gray. All but the Minor acquisition solidifies the rotation for 3+ years.

 

I never said don't use the payroll flexibility. Quite the contrary. Go spend it. I'm simply suggesting a means to acquire higher upside pitching talent without spending a lot of money or committing to a long term contract, which I think the Twins absolutely need to do in order to fill out a 26 man roster.

[Major League Ready]

 

Not committing to the future is how you need four new starting pitchers going into a new year....they don't need more of that.

 

As you have noted since the season ended, the Twins have 4 spots to fill in the rotation and there are numerous teams looking for starting pitching. Many of them with more revenue than the Twins. The difficulty of filling all those spots in a single year has been pointed out by several people here. Adding a solid SP on a 1 year deal has no down side. Put together the best possible team for 2020 and address one spot (hopefully) in the rotation next year.

 

[John Bonnes]

1) Roy Smalley recently talked about he would want to go out and get Rendon, too, only he would trade Sano. I like the idea of keeping Sano more. So I thought about it, and .... nah. If I'm going to go all in on a position player like that, he has to hit left-handed. I want that #4 guy to plug between Cruz and Sano next year. (Rendon would obviously make more sense in 2021, when Cruz is likely gone.)

 

2) Another blueprint with Gray. He's getting pretty popular around here. 

 

3) The estimates we put in the Handbook are crowdsourced among the authors but it's several weeks before other published estimates. Every year we look back at them and see how we did. There are always a few surprises, and it's very common we're off by a million or two per year for players. That can be a problem with several in a row are low, and when the payroll goes up to $140+. So yes, this seems a little overpacked with talent, identifying some of the ones that seem a little low now. 

 

Currently the one I'm least comfortable with is Odo at 3/36. I'd have been a lot more comfortable with 3/39 or 3/42. But that draft pick could weigh it down to our estimate. 

[nicksaviking]

 

This is a very well thought out plan, couple nitpics:

I think your dollars are light everywhere, except Rendon. Pomeranz will get double that, for example.

Way light on the Gray trade, as well. Rosario just doesnt have much trade value.

I want no part of Romo. His smoke and mirrors were fantastic this season, but smoke and mirrors never last.

I think Alex Gordon already stated he will only play for the Royals, didn't he?

 

I agree the dollars are light on the pitchers. And in fact with Pomeranz, I'd want him with an option year if not at least a 2nd guaranteed year, I think as a full time reliever he's going to be very good and expensive if he's a free agent again this time next year. 

 

I also previously thought Rosario wouldn't have a ton of trade value, but I now see MLBTR is predicting $15M/year 3 and 4 year deals for Nick Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna. I tend to think MLBTR is way off, but if they're not, Rosario probably actually does have quite a bit of value. Though I'd think the Twins might still have to chip in at least a 3rd piece to get Gray.

 

Romo didn't excite me at the deadline, but his smoke and mirrors has lasted for a long time. They can bring him back if they want. If they don't, that'd be fine too.

[nicksaviking]

 

False. 100%. If the Twins offer up the highest bid, he would be here. Some of you guys need to quit that line of thinking. The reason we haven't gotten these types of guys in the past has nothing to do with where we are located. It had to do with us being a ways off the top bid that those types signed for. 

 

I'll accept that many players will take the highest dollar amount, if you accept that not every player is the staunch capitalist that you make them out to be.

 

We don't know the motivations of every player and we never will, but we do know that they're all different humans and humans don't all operate the same way.

[Thrylos]

 

You think it is LIKELY that a minor league pitcher will be better than Berrios? I don't even know how to respond to that.

I think that Duran's next 6 years (his control time with the Twins) will better than Berrios's next 6.  Same way that in the 2016 offseason it could be predicted that Berrios's (who was then a minor leaguer) next 6 years with the Twins would be better than eg. Gibson's (who was then a major leaguer).

 

Duran has higher ceiling than Berrios, IMHO.  Simple

[Cap'n Piranha]

A few things;

1. Sano and Buxton each accumulated 2.7 WAR last year, placing them 5th and 6th in the lineup.  In terms of WAR/150, they're 6th and 4th, respectively.  They were key cogs in the Twins success, and most assuredly, not along for the ride.
2. No way Odo takes a 3/$36M deal.  He can get basically half of that just this year with the QO, so taking that deal implies Odorizzi's camp thinks he would not be able to get a 2 year contract for $9M/year after 2020, when he woudl have no draft pick compensation attached.  if the Twins want Odo for the next 3 years, they're going to have to get somewhere in the $42-$45 range.
3. Alex Gordon makes no sense for this team, whether an outfielder is traded or not.  From an offensive standpoint, Buxton and Kepler are better options, as is Rosario (unless you want more OBP in return for a big power drop).  Cave and Wade are probably better too; they certainly have more upside.  And with Kiriloff and Larnach holding their own at age 21 and 22 in AA, that's 7 options better than Gordon, before even mentioning Gonzalez and Royce Lewis should he be moved to the outfield.  If we feel like we need more outfield defense despite having the 2nd best CF and 3rd best RF (according to fangraphs), than just go sign a really fast guy from someone's minor league system.  Or alternatively, sign Billy Hamilton who is far superior defensively to Gordon, and would actually steal some bases too.  All that being said, outfield is the last place the Twins should be looking to spend time or money this offseason.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I would not move Duran for 2 years of Jeff Grey.

 

But would you move him for 2 years of Jon Gray?

[Mike Sixel]

 

As you have noted since the season ended, the Twins have 4 spots to fill in the rotation and there are numerous teams looking for starting pitching. Many of them with more revenue than the Twins. The difficulty of filling all those spots in a single year has been pointed out by several people here. Adding a solid SP on a 1 year deal has no down side. Put together the best possible team for 2020 and address one spot (hopefully) in the rotation next year.

 

The post I responded to stated one year deals are exactly what the TWins should be doing....not one, one year deal......

 

I have no issue with one, one year deal. I have issues with multiple one year deals. Nothing more or less.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I'll accept that many players will take the highest dollar amount, if you accept that not every player is the staunch capitalist that you make them out to be.

 

We don't know the motivations of every player and we never will, but we do know that they're all different humans and humans don't all operate the same way.

 

You are right when it comes to close dollars I'm sure. When its another year on a contract though? Or another 10-15 million over another bid? Most times they would take the better deal. 

[Major League Ready]

 

The post I responded to stated one year deals are exactly what the TWins should be doing....not one, one year deal......

 

I have no issue with one, one year deal. I have issues with multiple one year deals. Nothing more or less.

 

Sorry, I missed that part. Just heard on MLB radio Odorizzi is strongly considering taking the QO so we might have a SP on a 1 year deal by the end of the day.

[nicksaviking]

 

Sorry, I missed that part. Just heard on MLB radio Odorizzi is strongly considering taking the QO so we might have a SP on a 1 year deal by the end of the day.

 

If Odorizzi does accept the QO, and if the rumors that his agent had already met with Toronto are true (they may not have been, his agent also represents Randall Grichuck), then it probably means Odorizzi already had a feel that at best Toronto's hypothetical offer would be only a minimal improvement to the QO salary.

 

If so, that probably is a pretty good indicator that salaries, particularly to pitchers, are going to be lower than expected once again this offseason. Which probably means the Twins can be in play for anyone with mutual interest, but also probably means there won't be much free agent action until 2020.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Sorry, I missed that part. Just heard on MLB radio Odorizzi is strongly considering taking the QO so we might have a SP on a 1 year deal by the end of the day.

 

This does create an interesting dilemna for the FO. If they can't get him to negotiate a longer deal, do they sign another guy to a one year deal? If so, that sets up next off season to be potentially (likely) needing to add 1-2 new SPs again (and that's assuming that 1-2 of their minor league guys step up).

 

I hope that "forces" them to be more active for the first or second tier types....

[Major League Ready]

 

This does create an interesting dilemna for the FO. If they can't get him to negotiate a longer deal, do they sign another guy to a one year deal? If so, that sets up next off season to be potentially (likely) needing to add 1-2 new SPs again (and that's assuming that 1-2 of their minor league guys step up).

 

I hope that "forces" them to be more active for the first or second tier types....

 

I am thinking it makes them bold going after Wheeler / Bumgarner because it reduces risk. It does  make signing both more financially viable. Obviously, it does not make it any easier to attract two top FA starting pitchers when so many team are pursuing SPs but I think it makes them a little bolder. 

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I am thinking it makes them bold going after Wheeler / Bumgarner because it reduces risk. It does  make signing both more financially viable. Obviously, it does not make it any easier to attract two top FA starting pitchers when so many team are pursuing SPs but I think it makes them a little bolder. 

 

Over pay them. Get them in here. If those are the 2 your team/front office has determined will give you the best chance to win, go to them right away with a big number that fits within your budget and lets not let any of the big boys have their chance at them. 

 

[Major League Ready]

 

Over pay them. Get them in here. If those are the 2 your team/front office has determined will give you the best chance to win, go to them right away with a big number that fits within your budget and lets not let any of the big boys have their chance at them. 

 

It just does not generally work that way with the top guys, especially with so many teams (high revenue teams) looking for SPs. It does not matter what you offer, their agent is going to see if they can get more or get the same amount from a team they prefer.   

[Weave]

I see you don't have Randy Dobnak in any part of your plan.  Granted I am biased, but I hope you are wrong.  

[ChiefsKid]

The post I responded to stated one year deals are exactly what the TWins should be doing....not one, one year deal......

 

I have no issue with one, one year deal. I have issues with multiple one year deals. Nothing more or less.

If it takes one year deals to get the best quality pitching, then do one year deals.

 

My concern is now *how* we get top level pitching here, but the simple fact that we do.

 

I feel like you expect the Twins to go out and sign 4 top level pitchers to market level contracts (or above). That's foolish. I don't care if they have 5 starters on 1 year deals every single year, so long as those 5 starters are higher end and better quality.

 

The reality of our situation is we need to be savvy and creative in acquiring pitching talent, because even though the FO is spouting fairytales about increased spending, we are never going to match payrolls with the Bostons, NYs and LAs. Do it in any way you can, especially if it costs lower than market value. The market the Twins will consistently be in includes the likes of Martin Perez, Kevin Correia, and Shelby Miller. We are begging for the second tier Free Agents, ferpetessake.

 

Mike Minor was an ace this past year. He would fit towards the top of the Twins rotation really nicely. A significant upgrade over Randy Dobnak, imo. This proverbial "window" typically lasts 4-ish years for mid-market teams (see Cleveland, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, etc.)

[Mike Sixel]

 

If it takes one year deals to get the best quality pitching, then do one year deals.

My concern is now *how* we get top level pitching here, but the simple fact that we do.

I feel like you expect the Twins to go out and sign 4 top level pitchers to market level contracts (or above). That's foolish. I don't care if they have 5 starters on 1 year deals every single year, so long as those 5 starters are higher end and better quality.

The reality of our situation is we need to be savvy and creative in acquiring pitching talent, because even though the FO is spouting fairytales about increased spending, we are never going to match payrolls with the Bostons, NYs and LAs. Do it in any way you can, especially if it costs lower than market value. The market the Twins will consistently be in includes the likes of Martin Perez, Kevin Correia, and Shelby Miller. We are begging for the second tier Free Agents, ferpetessake.

Mike Minor was an ace this past year. He would fit towards the top of the Twins rotation really nicely. A significant upgrade over Randy Dobnak, imo. This proverbial "window" typically lasts 4-ish years for mid-market teams (see Cleveland, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, etc.)

 

I've never once said they can get 4 good pitchers in 1 season. That's my entire point....you can't. Hence, you can fill your roster with 4 guys on one year deals (or in this case, deals that all expire the same year).

 

That is literally my point.

 

No one, not one person, has asked the TWins to spend as much as the Yankees or Red Sox. But, they have 40-55 million in budget room right now. They can afford 1 great pitcher on a multi year deal. Heck, they agree with me. They bid the 2nd most for Darvish two years ago.....

[ChiefsKid]

I've never once said they can get 4 good pitchers in 1 season. That's my entire point....you can't. Hence, you can fill your roster with 4 guys on one year deals (or in this case, deals that all expire the same year).

 

That is literally my point.

 

No one, not one person, has asked the TWins to spend as much as the Yankees or Red Sox. But, they have 40-55 million in budget room right now. They can afford 1 great pitcher on a multi year deal. Heck, they agree with me. They bid the 2nd most for Darvish two years ago.....

I'm confused as to what your point is, though. You say you don't want multiple guys like Minor (simply because of an expiring contract) but then also say we only have enough money to afford one good pitcher. I'm saying if 5 guys like Mike Minor are available and affordable, go get them all.

If that leads to needing to replenish the pitching staff next year again, so be it. Actually, I'd honestly prefer more of that.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm confused as to what your point is, though. You say you don't want multiple guys like Minor (simply because of an expiring contract) but then also say we only have enough money to afford one good pitcher. I'm saying if 5 guys like Mike Minor are available and affordable, go get them all.

If that leads to needing to replenish the pitching staff next year again, so be it. Actually, I'd honestly prefer more of that.

Next year's free agent class is much worse.

 

My point is clear.... It is not likely a team can acquire four good starting pitchers in one off season. They can't afford to make the same mistake they did last year again, having one pitcher on the roster signed past this year.

 

The Twins can afford plenty of pitching, but that doesn't mean they can convince four good pitchers to come here.... It's not about money. It's about mutual desire. Free agency and trades are about two parties agreeing. It's hard to do that for four times in one year.

[ChiefsKid]

Next year's free agent class is much worse.

My point is clear.... It is not likely a team can acquire four good starting pitchers in one off season. They can't afford to make the same mistake they did last year again, having one pitcher on the roster signed past this year.

The Twins can afford plenty of pitching, but that doesn't mean they can convince four good pitchers to come here.... It's not about money. It's about mutual desire. Free agency and trades are about two parties agreeing. It's hard to do that for four times in one year.

Valid. 4 openings every year probably is a tough task.

I guess my point is the "window" usually only last 4-ish years. I'd love to believe the Twins will be ultra competitive for the next decade, but odds are, they won't. If it takes 1-year deals to get upper level pitching here while the window is open, I just wouldn't want to rule it out because it makes you work hard next offseason too.

 

"Mutual Desire" almost always starts with money, and you're going to have a hard time convincing me otherwise.

[John Buckeye]

This is the closest blueprint I've seen to my own. I'm definitely going to steal the Signing Gordon thing, as we will probably need that defensive help once Eddie is gone.Good article!