Front Page: Twins Need Rosario to Rein it In

[Ted Schwerzler]

Free-swinger, bad-ball hitter, whatever you want to define him as, Eddie Rosario is it. Those definitions are generally applied to mask shortcomings however, and if there’s someone that falls into that category it’s the Minnesota Twins left fielder. There’s a productive bat in Rosario’s stable when he has a plan, but for the better part of 2019 we haven’t seen it, and lots of production has been left on the table.Earlier this year I wrote about how Luis Arraez is everything Twins fans wanted Willians Astudillo to be. It’s fun and cute when a guy never strikes out or takes walks, but there’s a right and wrong way to go about that. Having command of the strike zone is much different (and more beneficial) than having control of it. Eddie Rosario isn’t the contact hitter that has ultimate control of the zone, but he’s absolutely not the guy who commands anything with plate presence either.

 

A year ago, Rosario posted a career high 3.4 fWAR. He generated walks 5.1% of the time and whiffed 18% of his at bats. The strikeout rate is down to 14.3% this year, but he’s walking just 3.6% of the time. It’s really not in the strikeout or free pass categories that Rosario will see his downfall, however. When swinging the bat this year he’s chasing 46.5% of the time (42.9% in 2018). The swinging strike rate is a career low (11.6%) and the contact rate is a career high (80.3%). What all of that adds up to is a very Astudillo-esque contact with suboptimal outcomes.

 

The good news is that the Puerto Rican isn’t far off from a massive shift in outcomes. With a career best hard-hit rate (37.7%) and solid trajectory outcomes, the ball has opportunity to fly. We saw evidence of this during the first two months of the season in which Eddie blasted 17 dingers in 54 games with a .548 SLG. As opposing pitchers have asserted their will on him however, the results have taken a step backwards.

 

Since June 1st Rosario owns a .285/.302/.457 slash line. The average is hardly an issue because the hard hit and contact rates are still strong. Offering at pitches he’s able to do little damage with though, much production is left on the table and hurlers are significantly less worried about pitching to him. In these last 61 games he has just a .457 SLG and .759 OPS with 10 long balls. Expanding his strike zone further than he ever has, there’s less ability to drive or elevate the baseball beyond anything but station to station outcomes.

 

Through the end of May Rosario was chasing pitches out of the zone 43% of the time. Since then he’s jumped that number all the way to 49%. What was once a hard-hit rate of over 40% has fallen to 35%. These are drastic swings, but for a guy that has a very singular expected outcome at the dish, they are making a massive impact. It’s not rocket science to assume that squared up baseballs are the easiest to drive and squaring up pitches off the plate is a difficult ask. It’s not that the process has changed as much as it is that Rosario is allowing the opposition to dictate results with his less than ideal inputs.

 

For the Twins there’s a negative impact here as well. In 110 starts this season Rosario has batted cleanup a whopping 105 times. Put in position to bat with men on base during 244 different plate appearances, he’s got just a .788 OPS. Certainly the .905 OPS with runners in scoring position is good to see, but what isn’t capitalized on could be equally important. A .465 SLG from your cleanup hitter, in a lineup as potent as the Twins is seems like a missed opportunity. Cleanup hitters this season own a .486 SLG (.827 OPS) and you’d think Minnesota could be pacing that group.

 

If I were Rocco Baldelli there’d be two clear paths to go down regarding Eddie Rosario. One would be continuing to have James Rowson work on homing in on a stronger command of the zone with the lefty. This is probably a bit lofty given his big-league track record thus far, but the production increasing substantially doesn’t require a significant shift. The alternative is allowing Rosario to be the same hitter he is right now but doing so out of a different lineup spot. A guy offering little to no on-base presence can’t hit in the top three but batting him sixth could make a good deal of sense. That bat definitely plays, just not in the role it’s currently cast.

 

Lineup optimization is a difficult task given the lack of any one “right” answer. A group as good as the Twins should efficiently push for every extra run that their starting nine will provide them. Right now, there’s opportunity to exploit what’s being left on the table, and finding a way to maximize that is a must.

 

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[MNT1996]

I know Eddie is a fan favorite, but I don't think we'll see him in a Twins uniform in 2021. I bet they sign him to a 1-year deal this offseason and have Larnach ready to go in left for 2021.

[jz7233]

Agreed. Arraez should bat leadoff. Kepler should bat cleanup. Sano or Garver should bat 5th. Rosario should bat 6th.

[jbeckr]

His defense has also fallen off - a lot.  Seems like every game I watch he makes an error or fails to make a play.  Maybe he has an injury.

[John Kelsey]

 

His defense has also fallen off - a lot.  Seems like every game I watch he makes an error or fails to make a play.  Maybe he has an injury.

 

I think he's had a bum ankle for a while. 

[jkcarew]

I know Eddie is a fan favorite, but I don't think we'll see him in a Twins uniform in 2021. I bet they sign him to a 1-year deal this offseason and have Larnach ready to go in left for 2021.

He’s signed through 2021...and there’s no reason he would accept a 1-year extension or 1-year deal of any kind. The Twins will give him a multi-year deal/extension...or they’ll trade him.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Coaches who transformed Sano into a more disciplined hitter ought to be able to help Rosario, as well.

[yarnivek1972]

Coaches who transformed Sano into a more disciplined hitter ought to be able to help Rosario, as well.

Sano has always been a disciplined hitter. His problem last year and earlier this year was swinging and missing pitches he should have been able to crush.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

 

Sano has always been a disciplined hitter. His problem last year and earlier this year was swinging and missing pitches he should have been able to crush.

 

Uh, no.  He had a most unfortunate check swing habit that he has learned to control.  He is earning walks at a heretofore unseen pace.  These improvements in his judgment mean that opposing pitchers can no longer get away with throwing him unhittable crap outside the zone.

[bighat]

Eddie Rosario's batting .281 with 27 homers and 92 RBI. The Twins are in 1st place by 6.5 games on September 4th.

 

There is literally nothing to complain about, so it's "hate on Eddie" week? I know that in this day in age, we all need our daily blog posts to provoke some controversy and conversation. But c'mon man.

 

Eddie's a free swinger. Been that way since he hit a HR in his first MLB at bat many years ago. He's had some huge hits for this team. He's carried this team on his back for long periods of time.

 

Yes, Eddie is going to swing at some bad pitches. So what. Let the guy play his game.

 

 

[Old Twins Cap]

Eddie is a unique talent, with a swing that shows tremendous hand and wrist strength all the way through the zone.

 

Could be, should be, would be one of the best hitters in the league, but, lacks discipline.

 

I wrote recently that he seemed not to care about outcomes.

 

I don't think that's right to question motivation.

 

It's more like he is preoccupied, kind of somewhere else in his head and loses his focus or ability to respond physically/decisively.

 

"Eddie, get back down here to the physical plane of reality.  We f'ing need you!"

[yarnivek1972]

Uh, no. He had a most unfortunate check swing habit that he has learned to control. He is earning walks at a heretofore unseen pace. These improvements in his judgment mean that opposing pitchers can no longer get away with throwing him unhittable crap outside the zone.

Umm, yes. Even back in the minors.

 

Way back in A ball he walked 80 times in 500 PA. At the same level, Rosario walked 30 times in a little over 400 PA. For his minor league career, Sano had a walk rate over 12%. Rosario’s was under 7%.

 

Sure, Sano can get fooled, but he has never been a guy to swing at anything that moves like Rosario.

[yarnivek1972]

Eddie Rosario's batting .281 with 27 homers and 92 RBI. The Twins are in 1st place by 6.5 games on September 4th.

 

There is literally nothing to complain about, so it's "hate on Eddie" week? I know that in this day in age, we all need our daily blog posts to provoke some controversy and conversation. But c'mon man.

 

Eddie's a free swinger. Been that way since he hit a HR in his first MLB at bat many years ago. He's had some huge hits for this team. He's carried this team on his back for long periods of time.

 

Yes, Eddie is going to swing at some bad pitches. So what. Let the guy play his game.

Let him play it somewhere else. The Twins need pitching more than they need Rosario’s bat. Rosario could fetch a very good, very close to MLB ready prospect IMO. Like, someone that can help fill one of the 4 holes in the rotation next year.

[bighat]

 

Let him play it somewhere else. The Twins need pitching more than they need Rosario’s bat. Rosario could fetch a very good, very close to MLB ready prospect IMO. Like, someone that can help fill one of the 4 holes in the rotation next year.

 

Don't get me wrong, I understand the Twins may have to deal some of their pieces to acquire pitching. Not sure Eddie's going to get the Twins much, but that remains to be seen.

 

I just don't get the hate and vitriol towards one of the better Twins players, who seems to be liked by his teammates and is having a good year. I can see how it's annoying to watch him swing at bad balls, but every player has his quirks. I can see if the Twins had lost 10 of 12 games and Eddie was 0-29 during that stretch or something. But that's not the case.

 

[Dman]

The book on Eddie is pretty easy.  Get ahead by throwing borderline strikes and then expand the zone considerably because he will swing at just about anything with a two strike count.  His OBP could be much, much higher and he could force pitchers to work harder if was just willing to control the plate.  Eddie is often times good with men on and I do love him in tough spots but it is easy to see he needs better plate discipline.

 

That being said it seems like he has been trying to be better.  I have seen him take some first pitch strikes right down the middle recently.  Maybe he has been told not to swing at the first pitch so much as pitchers were usually on the edges early?  Not sure but it seems like he has been using a different approach at the plate recently with the exception of when he has two strikes.  Also he really hasn't been the same player since his injury so maybe he just isn't fully recovered from that and thus struggling a bit more or he is just having a second half swoon like last year.   Hard to say what the issue(s) might be but I would like to see more walks from him and then just like Sano he will get good pitches to hit and then he will be very dangerous.

[yarnivek1972]

Don't get me wrong, I understand the Twins may have to deal some of their pieces to acquire pitching. Not sure Eddie's going to get the Twins much, but that remains to be seen.

 

I just don't get the hate and vitriol towards one of the better Twins players, who seems to be liked by his teammates and is having a good year. I can see how it's annoying to watch him swing at bad balls, but every player has his quirks. I can see if the Twins had lost 10 of 12 games and Eddie was 0-29 during that stretch or something. But that's not the case.

Maybe you are talking about other threads, but what I see in this thread is honest assessment.

[John Buckeye]

I love Kepler batting leadoff, and against righties I don't think there's a better option. So that probably means Polanco (picking it back up lately) second, followed by Cruz and then Arraez. Sano can still be trusted at five, but honestly how can you even put Rosario ahead of Cave in the lineup at this point? Simple seniority rules, I guess? Whenever Buxton's ready to come back, it's going to be hard to fit Eddie in there regularly unless he does change something about his approach- especially with runners on.

[yarnivek1972]

I love Kepler batting leadoff, and against righties I don't think there's a better option. So that probably means Polanco (picking it back up lately) second, followed by Cruz and then Arraez. Sano can still be trusted at five, but honestly how can you even put Rosario ahead of Cave in the lineup at this point? Simple seniority rules, I guess? Whenever Buxton's ready to come back, it's going to be hard to fit Eddie in there regularly unless he does change something about his approach- especially with runners on.

Curious why you think Arraez is well suited to hit clean up but not lead off. Seems to me that Arraez leading off with Kepler clean up makes all the sense in the world vs RHP.

[In My La Z boy]

I love Eddie. He does bring the swagger and attitude every championship team needs. My hope is to see him reign it in and become more polished and disciplined in those moments of consequence on the field and at the plate. Not sure if he is easily bored out in left field at times, or if he has a hero mindset at the plate late in games? For whatever reason he is certainly not maximizing his ability as he could. Such great hands and quick wrists could be better harnessed and better deployed I think. Now do other GM's see this, and are willing to pay a kings ransom for him this winter? Probably not. If not, we need to keep him. Tons of raw talent here, and still alot of refining and developing work to bring out the best in him. He is no where close to his peak ability in my opinion.

[alarp33]

 

He’s signed through 2021...and there’s no reason he would accept a 1-year extension or 1-year deal of any kind. The Twins will give him a multi-year deal/extension...or they’ll trade him.

 

He is not signed through 2021. He is controllable through 2021

[David HK]

This is good stuff! What a fascinating read. 

 

There's a lot the dedicated Twins fan would be familiar with, and mostly agree on.

 

I love Eddie like a rock. In addition to his often-productive bat, he brings a lot of intangibles to the club with his attitude and how he approaches the game. But the mental lapses at the plate and in the field- they're beyond the level of maturity he should be showing by now. 

 

It would not surprise me in the least if Eddie gets packaged this winter for starting pitching, but it would hurt my heart. Those young sluggers that are making their wayt through the ranks, all pretty much project to LF/1B, so they're going to need a spot to fit into. I don't see Larnach, Rooker, or any of the other kids replacing Kep or (a healthy) Buxton for seasons hence.

 

 

[Shaitan]

Is it an injury, a new approach, or is he simply a streaky player? Or all 3?

 

He's always been streaky, so my hope is a cold spell in Sept, a hot streak in Oct.

[jkcarew]

 

He is not signed through 2021. He is controllable through 2021

Right. Arbitration eligible in 2020 and 2021. So, maybe the poster that I responded to meant "don't extend beyond 2021"...or "force the arbitration process". Either way, the Twins can offer a multi-year extension, or trade him...and they have until July 31, 2021 (latest...Brian Dozier scenario) to trade him.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Uh, no.  He had a most unfortunate check swing habit that he has learned to control.  He is earning walks at a heretofore unseen pace.  These improvements in his judgment mean that opposing pitchers can no longer get away with throwing him unhittable crap outside the zone.

 

Miguel Sano's walk rate this year is 12.4%, compared to his career MLB walk rate of 12.0%.

[rdehring]

Free Eddie.

 

I say let him play as he does.  We all know he will get on one of those hot streaks.  Wouldn't it be great if the next one started around the last day of the regular season.  He could carry the team through the first two rounds all the way to the World Series.

 

Eddie...Eddie...Eddie!

[Trov]

Eddie is who he is, like it or not.  You cannot make him any different at this time.  He has done a little better, but he will swing at bad pitches and sometimes he will get hits, some times he will not.  If you want him to change to Arraez, he will not.  If he can get hot in playoffs he can carry the team all the way to the ship.  

 

Personally, I do not expect he will be on team long term and will be replaced by one of our many up and coming OF.  Our team leads MLB in runs scored, and we are complaining we could have scored more if Eddie would just stay off some bad pitches?  How many bad pitches this season has he produced big hits on, did you look at that?  I have not, but know in the past I have seen him hit big hits on pitches well out of zone.  You have to take good with the bad and accept it. If he knew how to hone his zone he would have by now. 

[Monkeypaws]

Funny, at the end of last season, to an intermediate fan such as myself, Rosario and Berrios were the ones who I hoped to se extended. They extended Polanco and Kepler.

 

Falvine must have a crystal ball. 

 

 

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

Eddie Rosario's batting .281 with 27 homers and 92 RBI. The Twins are in 1st place by 6.5 games on September 4th.

 

There is literally nothing to complain about, so it's "hate on Eddie" week? I know that in this day in age, we all need our daily blog posts to provoke some controversy and conversation. But c'mon man.

 

Eddie's a free swinger. Been that way since he hit a HR in his first MLB at bat many years ago. He's had some huge hits for this team. He's carried this team on his back for long periods of time.

 

Yes, Eddie is going to swing at some bad pitches. So what. Let the guy play his game.

Not to be snarky, but it is called Twins Daily.

 

 

Edited September 4, 2019 by ScrapTheNickname

[VivaBomboRivera!]

 

Umm, yes. Even back in the minors.

Way back in A ball he walked 80 times in 500 PA. At the same level, Rosario walked 30 times in a little over 400 PA. For his minor league career, Sano had a walk rate over 12%. Rosario’s was under 7%.

Sure, Sano can get fooled, but he has never been a guy to swing at anything that moves like Rosario.

 

First, thanks for enforcing a fact check.  It's important to be certain of the numbers if our opinions are to mean anything.

 

It was indeed a surprise to find Sano leading the team in BB/PA (45/363, 12.4%).  Next best is Castro at 28/242, 11.6%.  Sano's MLB BB% has never been below 10%, but he only has two seasons with more than 400 PA.  Of Twins players with over 400 PA this season, only Kepler and Cruz are at/over 10%.  Rosario (18/497, 3.6%) and Schoop (16/397, 4.0%) do least well in this category among major batters in Twins 2019 lineup.

 

Rosario does much better than Sano at not striking out.  This season he has recorded 71Ks for 14.3% of his PAs.  Sano leads Twins batters with 132 (36.4%).

 

The first half vs second half and monthly stats tell a fuller story of Sano's improved discipline.  His BB% rose from 11.3% to 13.3% at the same time his SO% dropped appreciably from 38.1% to 34.9%.  This is particularly noticeable in the month of July, but he slipped back in August.   He has significantly reduced his number of swings at pitches outside the zone this year, a major Rosario issue.  The perception has been that the number of strikes called on those irritating check swings has also dropped, but I can't locate data to support this at the moment.

 

Rosario and Sano are certainly different classes of hitters.  But if Sano can apply what he's learned from Rowson and Hernandez, then Rosario should also be able to do so.

[laloesch]

 

Coaches who transformed Sano into a more disciplined hitter ought to be able to help Rosario, as well.

 

 

I don't know if i call it a transformation. He's still striking out at near career highs and still not walking as much as did in 2105 which was 15.8%

Edited September 4, 2019 by laloesch