Article: Taking a Deeper Dive into Miguel Sano's Plate Discipline

[wsnydes]

 

The HR scenario was not a wasted inning.  Re-produce that inning every inning, of every game, and that team will have far and away the greatest offense of all time.  That team will in all likelihood win something like 140 games, shattering the all-time win record.

 

I also don't understand why you would rather have a double play than a strikeout.  There are 14 states in which a double play can occur; runner at first, runner at second, runner at third, runners at first and second, runners at first and third, runners at second and third, bases loaded (either with 0 outs or 1 out).  Based on run expectancy, the only times a double play is less damaging than a strikeout is if there are multiple runners on base, one of whom is at third, and that runner manages to score before the second out of the double play is recorded.  The best-case scenario for a double play is on average .2 runs worse of an outcome than a strikeout, whereas the worst-case scenario is .6 runs worse of an outcome.

I said largely wasted, not totally wasted. There's opportunity to build on that HR and nothing materialized. It's true that the same can be said if the ball were put in play and three outs were recorded, but I will take three put outs over three strike outs any day of the week.

 

I also didn't say that I'd rather have the double play. I said that I'd take my chances with putting the ball in play with a runner running on a 2-strike count.

 

You're arguing against points that I'm not making or trying to make.

[wsnydes]

 

You did claim that not putting the ball in play can't be positive.  From your post at 9:01 AM, 4th to last sentence in your first paragraph: "Failing to put the ball in play can never result in a positive."

 

I agree that a batter reaching on a WP/PB reaches because of the WP/PB, not the strikeout; however, that also means a batter that reaches on an error on a ball put in play reaches on the error, not the ball put in play.  Insofar as reaching on a WP/PB or an error is dependent on a strikeout or ball in play, respectively, you can't dismiss either case without also dismissing the other.

 

A stolen base is also dependent on the ball not being put in play.  Therefore, if stealing a base is a positive, not putting the ball in play is imperative.

Fair enough. Clearly within the context of a general argument, that wasn't my point at all. The point goes back to the strikeout, nothing more. Like I mentioned earlier, we can scenario this to death to reinforce either argument. I still stand by my statement however.

 

I'd disagree that I can't dismiss one without dismissing the other. The error on the batted ball doesn't occur without the contact. The WP/PB can happen regardless of whether there is a strikeout or not and is largely independent on the batter. These are two different plays under two different circumstances and scenarios.  

Edited June 20, 2019 by wsnydes

[Thrylos]

 

I believe that strike outs are more worthless than other types of outs.

 

Including GIDP?

 

As far as WPA, Ks are better than the above and as good as any other out that either does not advance a runner or ends the inning...

As the third or first out a strikeout is as bad as a robbed HR out.

 

Might not be as pretty, but it is worth as much, and you are talking about worth.

Edited June 20, 2019 by Thrylos

[MABB1959]

Is Sano the next Mauer?   The one people will love to hate.  Goodness we have an awesome team now.   Just what we have been waiting   for.  Can't everyone just enjoy this then to try to find faults and flaws in what is a pretty talented player.   Maybe just a year or two and then get back to the moaning and groaning and complaining. 

Edited June 20, 2019 by MABB1959

[dex8425]

 

Is Sano the next Mauer?  The one people will love to hate.  Goodness we have an awesome team now.  Just what we have been waiting  for. 

Yes. People hated Joe "because he didn't hit home runs and has that contract" even though he led the team in obp and led the league in batting avg. with RISP. People hate Sano "because he strikes out too much" even though the dude has an .OPS of 850. 

 

I would say it's unbelievable, but MN sports fans seem to hate more than they "fan." I think they get it from Ruesse, Barreiro, Dan Cole, etc. who make more if they whine than if they fawn. 

[Vanimal46]

Yes. People hated Joe "because he didn't hit home runs and has that contract" even though he led the team in obp and led the league in batting avg. with RISP. People hate Sano "because he strikes out too much" even though the dude has an .OPS of 850.

 

I would say it's unbelievable, but MN sports fans seem to hate more than they "fan." I think they get it from Ruesse, Barreiro, Dan Cole, etc. who make more if they whine than if they fawn.

So you're cool with Sano striking out 50% of the time as long as his OPS looks okay?

[dex8425]

 

So you're cool with Sano striking out 50% of the time as long as his OPS looks okay?

 

 

If his OPS is .850, I absolutely am okay with a 50% strikeout rate.  I suppose that is mathematically possible but maybe not actually possible. 

[alarp33]

 

People hate Sano "because he strikes out too much" even though the dude has an .OPS of 850. 

 

 

 

No one hates Sano having an .850 OPS, he had a nice 2 weeks off the IL, the criticism and complaints are intensifying because Sano is going out there on a nightly basis and having horrendous at bats, and striking out while coming no where close to solid contact. The complaints are over the past couple of weeks where he's striking out half the time with an OPS well under an acceptable level. 

 

This isn't hard to understand. Saying Sano has an .850 OPS so everyone is overreacting is either intentionally being obtuse or ignoring the evidence at hand, that for 2+ weeks he's had as much chance as any of us facing major league pitching. Pitchers made adjustments, is Sano capable of doing the same? We'll see, but current results aren't promising

Edited June 20, 2019 by alarp33

[yarnivek1972]

Is Sano the next Mauer? The one people will love to hate. Goodness we have an awesome team now. Just what we have been waiting for. Can't everyone just enjoy this then to try to find faults and flaws in what is a pretty talented player. Maybe just a year or two and then get back to the moaning and groaning and complaining.

 

Despite their polar opposite approaches to hitting, I think the criticism of both is based on essentially the same two issues: organizational overhype and a (perceived at least) lack of improvement.

 

Mauer was a number one overall pick, hyped to be a generational talent. While it is true that he had history making acheivements, he certainly didn’t lead the team to championships. Early in his career, the mantra was that the power would come with time. So, we waited. But other than 2009, it never did. I do think that rankled people. No one denies Mauer had tremendous skills. But it seems that he was content to slap the ball the other way when he perhaps would have been a more productive player by turning on pitches and driving the ball more often. He did so occasionally, the question always was why not more? Whether that was coaching or simply “the Joe Mauer way” I suppose only he knows. But the perception was that he simply chose to not get better.

 

Same with Sano. The perception is that he is choosing not to be better in working to cut down his whiff rate. Also, extremely overhyped, largely due to his record signing bonus.

 

I suspect that Minnesota work ethic comes in to play. As I said, the perception is that neither tried (is trying) to get better.

[adorduan]

 

Except that a strikeout allows for the possibility of a wild pitch/passed ball, or for that matter, a stolen base.  A ball in play means none of those things can happen.  If you're going to say putting a ball in play is positive because it can result in an error, than you have to say not putting a ball in play can be positive because it can result in a WP/PB.  Using your logic, a batter reaching/runner advancing due to an error, is the result of the error, not the ball put in play.

 

Also, batters seldomly, but regularly reach base on strikeouts when the third strike gets away.  Runners often advance on those as well.  And while those instances are less frequent than runners advancing on balls-in-play, it is plainly false to say no good can possible come from a strikeout.

Huh???

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Despite their polar opposite approaches to hitting, I think the criticism of both is based on essentially the same two issues: organizational overhype and a (perceived at least) lack of improvement.

Mauer was a number one overall pick, hyped to be a generational talent. While it is true that he had history making acheivements, he certainly didn’t lead the team to championships. Early in his career, the mantra was that the power would come with time. So, we waited. But other than 2009, it never did. I do think that rankled people. No one denies Mauer had tremendous skills. But it seems that he was content to slap the ball the other way when he perhaps would have been a more productive player by turning on pitches and driving the ball more often. He did so occasionally, the question always was why not more? Whether that was coaching or simply “the Joe Mauer way” I suppose only he knows. But the perception was that he simply chose to not get better.

Same with Sano. The perception is that he is choosing not to be better in working to cut down his whiff rate. Also, extremely overhyped, largely due to his record signing bonus.

I suspect that Minnesota work ethic comes in to play. As I said, the perception is that neither tried (is trying) to get better.

Sano's career rWAR in over 1700 plate appearances: 5.6

 

Single seasons Mauer had a 5.6 rWAR or higher: 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2013

 

Sano's single season high rWAR is 2.5, which is almost one win lower than Joe Mauer's 2017 season.

 

Asking one of those players to "get better" is reasonable and that player ain't named Joe Mauer.

[Thrylos]

 

Huh???

 

[yarnivek1972]

Sano's career rWAR in over 1700 plate appearances: 5.6

 

Single seasons Mauer had a 5.6 rWAR or higher: 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2013

 

Sano's single season high rWAR is 2.5, which is almost one win lower than Joe Mauer's 2017 season.

 

Asking one of those players to "get better" is reasonable and that player ain't named Joe Mauer.

Who said that fans asking Joe Mauer to get better were being reasonable?

[stringer bell]

Many subtopics here, but one I find interesting is the thought that Sanó mashes fastballs. I seen him whiff on up-in-the-zone fastballs throughout his career and I haven't seen much damage done on those pitches. The majority of hard hits from Miguel middle-middle or middle-down in the zone (observation no graphs or anything). I will also say Sanó is not alone in struggling against high fastballs. To me, Sanó has two distinct weaknesses, high fastballs and chasing breaking balls. That is one too many weaknesses to be an elite hitter. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Who said that fans asking Joe Mauer to get better were being reasonable?

Fair enough, I just don't like the increasing comparisons between criticisms of Mauer and Sano. 

 

Sano has yet to have a full above average season. Questioning a guy's approach who was once a top ten prospect in baseball and has yet to stay on the field at an above average clip even once is quite a bit different than questioning a borderline HoF candidate.

[MABB1959]

Mauer had tons of criticism and now on to Sano. That was my comparison. My point is let’s enjoy the season. I think Sano’s talent will come. Too early to keep harping on him like many did to Mauer.

[Platoon]

Well there's doubling down, and then there is doubling down! The commentator who made the point about finding relief arms to miss bats basically disposes of the theory that SO's are simply another out. A SO makes your BABIP a moot point. It could be .800, it could be .173, but if you don't hit the ball it makes no difference. With runners in scoring position, especially third with less than two outs, nothing would please me more as a pitcher than to see him standing in the batters box. If I executed my pitches, he is almost a certain SO. No hit, no sac fly, no chance of an error, or even a walk. Last year I thought it was his conditioning. This year, in better shape, is more of the same. Maybe he will work his way out of it. I thought he would be a generational power hitter. He is young enough to do that, but so was Arcia. Arcia didn't have quite his talent, but they are on the same path.

[adorduan]

 

I understand that, I was pointing out the seeming contradiction of seldomly but regularly reaching first base. It can't be both. It's either occurs seldomly or regularly....

Edited June 21, 2019 by adorduan

[Vanimal46]

He tried really hard last night to make contact with a pitch. Maybe one of these days he'll succeed!

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I understand that, I was pointing out the seeming contradiction of seldomly but regularly reaching first base. It can't be both. It's either occurs seldomly or regularly....

 

Sure it can.  Seldom deals with frequency, regular deals with intervals.  Halley's comet appears at regular intervals, but based on the human lifespan, that regular interval is seldom.

 

In the context of batters reaching on strikeouts, while it happens seldomly, it is also a regular occurrence; there have been 92 4-strikeout innings alone in MLB history, so there have obviously been quite a few more instances of players reaching on a strikeout.  I would bet it happens anywhere from 4-6 times every season, making it a regular, but infrequent, occurrence.

[Linus]

Many subtopics here, but one I find interesting is the thought that Sanó mashes fastballs. I seen him whiff on up-in-the-zone fastballs throughout his career and I haven't seen much damage done on those pitches. The majority of hard hits from Miguel middle-middle or middle-down in the zone (observation no graphs or anything). I will also say Sanó is not alone in struggling against high fastballs. To me, Sanó has two distinct weaknesses, high fastballs and chasing breaking balls. That is one too many weaknesses to be an elite hitter.

This. He basically has to get a cookie to do damage. This does happen from time to time but doesn’t make for a complete hitter

[Brock Beauchamp]

Wow, I didn’t expect to be saying this so quickly, but how long until Miguel is demoted?

 

I think the only thing keeping him on this team right now is the fact that Gonzalez is on the IL.

 

Through his last 23 PAs (including the first two tonight), Sano has struck out 14 (!!!!!!!!!!) times.

[USAFChief]

Welp, the OP turned out to be correct.

 

Sano's plate discipline has taken a deeper dive.

[Taildragger8791]

Methinks the results are starting to catch up to the process...

[yarnivek1972]

Wow, I didn’t expect to be saying this so quickly, but how long until Miguel is demoted?

 

I think the only thing keeping him on this team right now is the fact that Gonzalez is on the IL.

 

Through his last 23 PAs (including the first two tonight), Sano has struck out 14 (!!!!!!!!!!) times.

Add one more K and an AB.

[Badsmerf]

Stick a fork in him.

[howeda7]

 

Wow, I didn’t expect to be saying this so quickly, but how long until Miguel is demoted?

I think the only thing keeping him on this team right now is the fact that Gonzalez is on the IL.

Through his last 23 PAs (including the first two tonight), Sano has struck out 14 (!!!!!!!!!!) times.

I was thinking the same thing tonight before the HR. Maybe that will snap him out of it, but I doubt it. You have to figure he goes down when Gonzalez comes back if he doesn't turn it around soon. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

Hitting is in large part about confidence. Hitting a ball six inches off the plate for a game tying home run should help his going forward. Hitting the ball the other way also seems like a good way to get his mojo back.

 

Also, watching that Pierzynski clip made me mad all over again. What a terrible call by the ump.

[Jham]

Doggone, if he could stick to driving the ball to right, I think he'd be just fine. smooths out the extreme uppercut.

[Thebigalguy]

We all like Sano and would love to see him develop into Big Papi and stay with the Twins in the long term. In the short term, he absolutely needs another stint in the minors, at Rochester this time, where he can focus on what counts, plate discipline. As Ted makes clear in this article, he's not that far from where he needs to be, though he's a very long ways from Big Papi. It's just not true that a strike out is like any other out; other outs score runs in the right situation, and the problem we're discussing here is Sano's production with runners on base. I say send him down when the injured ones return to the roster and let him dive deep himself into what he's doing wrong so that he can fix it and contribute to what might be an historic season if the starting pitching stops breaking down so often, but that's a topic for another day.