Article: Official Trade Deadline Day Thread

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Isn't Bundy already out of options and arbitration eligible? He's kind of a weird case since he's been injured for the last 3 or so years but was on their MLB roster at age 19. 

 

Out of options, quite possible.  Not sure.  Arb eligible?  Even if he got a full year of service time credit for his lost 2013 season (and I have no idea if this happened), he would still only have 2 full seasons and a September call up on his resume.

[Loosey]

I'm beginning to think it might be better for the Twins to hold on to Santana and look at an off-season trade.  That is if they don't get the return they want today.  The Free Agents are not very appealing this year and Santana is a guy who I think would be a Top 5 Free Agent pitcher.  A playoff caliber team looking to add a mid-tier free agent for a shorter term would would have to look at Santana a very nice option.  He would have 2 years $13.5M/Yr. I could see some teams willing to give up more in the off-season to get that than right now.

[Jham]

Aside from the guys discussed, I'd consider shopping Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, and Alex Meyer.  They've got the pedigree based on their draft positions, teams might not be able to fully investigate their struggles with a short deadline, and they've seem to have been passed in the organization by Melotakis, Hildenberger, Chargois and maybe even Rogers.  2 of the 3 have had injuries.  Their best value to the organization may be as trade sweeteners at this point.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Unless some deals are effectively done but just not finalized. I'm concerned of course, since I don't have any confidence in Antony.

 

I've got to think that they have deals in place for Abad and/or Kintzler.  They may be waiting on the outcomes of the other team's option A, but I'm guessing that is just a matter of filing paperwork... or at least that's what I hope.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Isn't Bundy already out of options and arbitration eligible? He's kind of a weird case since he's been injured for the last 3 or so years but was on their MLB roster at age 19. 

Bundy is out of options, yes (thanks to being one of the last draftees allowed to sign a MLB contract).  But he's not arb eligible -- he was on optional assignment pretty much all of 2012-2015.  He's only briefly been on a MLB disabled list, late last year.

 

Cot's has him with only 26 days MLB service time entering this season.  So he can't be arb eligible until after 2018:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/baltimore-orioles/

 

All that said, Baltimore isn't trading him.

Edited August 1, 2016 by spycake

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm beginning to think it might be better for the Twins to hold on to Santana and look at an off-season trade.  That is if they don't get the return they want today.  The Free Agents are not very appealing this year and Santana is a guy who I think would be a Top 5 Free Agent pitcher.  A playoff caliber team looking to add a mid-tier free agent for a shorter term would would have to look at Santana a very nice option.  He would have 2 years $13.5M/Yr. I could see some teams willing to give up more in the off-season to get that than right now.

 

Why would they give up more for 10 less starts?

[Loosey]

 

Why would they give up more for 10 less starts?

I think the mindset is different in the off-season.  Teams lose guys to Free Agency or get guys hurt the rest of this year or just evaluate their team after the season differently and decide they have needs that are different than when they are making a push for a playoff spot, it's a longer term thinking.  That's just my opinion.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think the mindset is different in the off-season.  Teams lose guys to Free Agency or get guys hurt the rest of this year or just evaluate their team after the season differently and decide they have needs that are different than when they are making a push for a playoff spot, it's a longer term thinking.  That's just my opinion.

 

You could be right, but I am not sure it is rational on their parts.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think the mindset is different in the off-season.  Teams lose guys to Free Agency or get guys hurt the rest of this year or just evaluate their team after the season differently and decide they have needs that are different than when they are making a push for a playoff spot, it's a longer term thinking.  That's just my opinion.

But they also have a lot more supply in the offseason.  There is no FA market right now, and a bunch of teams are unwilling to trade MLB assets (because they too are contending).

 

I'd add, I think teams are more likely to be optimistic about players bouncing back over an offseason rather than in-season.  (For example, the Twins might have more hope this winter that Nolasco will finally have a decent year in 2017, as compared to their optimism about Nolasco having a decent final two months in 2016 when he's already had 4 months of 5+ ERA pitching this year.)

Edited August 1, 2016 by spycake

[DaveW]

I'd be upset if the Twins don't make any real moves today.
I would be OK if they make one move.

I would be happy/a little shocked if they make 2 or more trades today.

[Tom Froemming]

Some quick thoughts ...

 

-Twins are in a great position with Erv. Teams know we're not motivated to move him and the SP market appears to be pretty dry judging by the names on the rumor mill.

 

-I'm sure the team has had advanced talks regarding Suzuki with multiple clubs. They have no incentive to hustle to get a deal done prior to Lucroy being traded. Wait for that shoe to drop and see if it makes anybody desperate.

 

-I don't think anybody's drooling over Kintzler or Abad, but the RP market has already been thinned out more than any other position. I wouldn't expect much in return, but anytime you can flip a minor singing like that into a prospect it's a good deal. Even if they're not dealt today, I think either of these guys could be waiver trade candidates.

 

-I love what Kennys Vargas has shown of late, but is now the time to sell high? There's not enough room for him, Mauer and Park all on the same roster, and I think Vargas has the most trade value of that group right now.

[markos]

 

But they also have a lot more supply in the offseason.  There is no FA market right now, and a bunch of teams are unwilling to trade MLB assets (because they too are contending).

 

I'd add, I think teams are more likely to be optimistic about players bouncing back over an offseason rather than in-season.  (For example, the Twins might have more hope this winter that Nolasco will finally have a decent year in 2017, as compared to their optimism about Nolasco having a decent final two months in 2016 when he's already had 4 months of 5+ ERA pitching this year.)

Yeah, but potentially the demand could be bigger as well. There are a bunch of teams that are more-or-less out of it this season (Pit, Sea, NYY, KC, LAA) that may consider themselves contenders (and subsequently buyers) in December. Hard to know how the dynamics will shake out. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, the only way I flip Erv is if I'm blown away.  He may not be here when the team is ready to contend, but he does provide a nice placeholder and a mentor for the younger guys.  I just want to see guys like Milone and Nolasco gone since they are occupying roster spots that should be used by said younger guys. I don't care if there is no value for them. DFA then at that point.

[Vanimal46]

Bundy is out of options, yes (thanks to being one of the last draftees allowed to sign a MLB contract). But he's not arb eligible -- he was on optional assignment pretty much all of 2012-2015. He's only briefly been on a MLB disabled list, late last year.

 

Cot's has him with only 26 days MLB service time entering this season. So he can't be arb eligible until after 2018:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/baltimore-orioles/

 

All that said, Baltimore isn't trading him.

Thanks for the info. His contract details weren't present on his b-ref page. Agreed on him not leaving Baltimore.

[TwinsTerritory]

My prediction, 2 trades today.  One is expected and the other a surprise.

 

Suzuki and Abad to the Indians for SS Erik Gonzalez

Gonzalez is a 24 year old that may never be great offensively, but plays good defense and is probably ready to see what he can do at the major league level (but is blocked by Lindor)  MLB.com has him as the Indians #9 prospect (after the Miller trade).  Twins can always try to resign Kurt in the offseason if they don't think Murphy or Garver are ready.

 

Nolasco and $12M to the Dodgers for C Keibert Ruiz

The Twins eat 2/3 of Nolasco's remaining money and get a lottery ticket catching prospect in 18 year old Ruiz, a rotation spot for Berrios, and a small amount of salary relief.  Dodgers get some rotation depth for about $5M over this year and next.

[Loosey]

 

You could be right, but I am not sure it is rational on their parts.

I could also be horribly wrong.  I have no idea how GM's minds work.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, but potentially the demand could be bigger as well. There are a bunch of teams that are more-or-less out of it this season (Pit, Sea, NYY, KC, LAA) that may consider themselves contenders (and subsequently buyers) in December. Hard to know how the dynamics will shake out. 

Sure, but teams aren't "buyers" in December the same way they are "buyers" in July.  I think Erv's market may be similar this winter, but I doubt it will be better, which was the original assertion.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I could also be horribly wrong.  I have no idea how GM's minds work.

 

Me neither.....I don't see Ervin or Dozier traded today anyway. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Even if they're not dealt today, I think either of these guys could be waiver trade candidates.

Modern waiver trades rarely produce worthwhile returns.

[gocgo]

What if....they move none of them?  What if no moves are made by the Twins?  Every team out there knows that we will be putting a lot of guys out on waivers if we don't trade them today.  They know they are in better position to negotiate a better deal in August than they are now.  It's not like any of these guys are must have pieces for other teams.  They can afford to wait.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The fact that Dozier's name isn't showing up in the rumors says all I need to know about that. I think he should be traded, but I'm expecting that to be the next GMs problem.  Suzuki, Abad, and Kintzler.... I'll be disappointed if at least two of them aren't gone by this afternoon. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Big upgrade?  Stroman has the same FIP and thus fWAR as Santana in 2016, plus he is averaging more IP per GS than Santana too.  He was pretty darn good as a rookie (2 bWAR, 3 fWAR in just ~4 months in 2014), plus he came back pretty strong from missing 5 months for a non-arm injury in 2015.  For a guy who peaked at #55 in the BA and MLB top 100, that's solid.

 

 

 

.

Well, there's a 2 WAR difference between them on B-R and B-R WAR usually passes the smell test better than fWAR. And FIP is the same argument we use to say Nolasco doesn't suck.

 

Stroman did have a good rookie season but since then he's been injured and this year he's putting up a Nolasco-like 85 ERA+ and sub zero WAR.  Considering the question marks around him before, I think one can argue that his future is in the bullpen, not the rotation.  I'm not sure if the Blue Jays will put him on the trade block but I also wouldn't want him back as the centerpiece for Santana. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

What if....they move none of them?  What if no moves are made by the Twins?  Every team out there knows that we will be putting a lot of guys out on waivers if we don't trade them today.  They know they are in better position to negotiate a better deal in August than they are now.  It's not like any of these guys are must have pieces for other teams.  They can afford to wait.

That is definitely the concern about the starting pitchers.  Nolasco isn't getting dealt today, and probably not Milone either (hence why Duffey is headed to the pen for Berrios).  Even Ervin Santana stands a fair chance at clearing waivers, or at least falling far enough to give teams like Toronto a decent shot at acquiring him in August.

[Lonestar]

Everything I have heard says the Twins/Pohlads are reluctant to eat salary and want someone who can contribute next year.  That would hold down their ability to deal.  Otherwise they could fetch a nice return on Santana

[Loosey]

 

Me neither.....I don't see Ervin or Dozier traded today anyway. 

I don't either.  Although I think Dozier could bring in a nice return.  But I want to Polanco to prove he is the real deal for the next two months before I would trade Dozier. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't either.  Although I think Dozier could bring in a nice return.  But I want to Polanco to prove he is the real deal for the next two months before I would trade Dozier. 

 

He'd have to actually play every day......how does that happen on this team/roster?

[DaveW]

 

What if....they move none of them?  What if no moves are made by the Twins?  Every team out there knows that we will be putting a lot of guys out on waivers if we don't trade them today.  They know they are in better position to negotiate a better deal in August than they are now.  It's not like any of these guys are must have pieces for other teams.  They can afford to wait.

Suzuki wouldn't clear waivers, Abad or Kintzler wouldn't as well.

Santana would have some people claim him as well more than likely.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Nolasco will clear waivers... I can promise that.  If some GM was stupid enough to claim him, the Twins will let them have him...

[gocgo]

 

Suzuki wouldn't clear waivers, Abad or Kintzler wouldn't as well.

Santana would have some people claim him as well more than likely.

Name one of those guys that a team would say is a must have piece for them.  I think they are willing to wait and if they fall to them, they fall to them.  If not, no biggy.  Santana is the only one that a contending team might want as an upgrade over the backend of their rotation.

[Loosey]

 

He'd have to actually play every day......how does that happen on this team/roster?

You say, sorry to Escobar and play Polanco at SS almost every day and play him at 2nd on occasion to let Dozier DH like yesterday.  That's only way I can see it.