Article: Ricky Nolasco Waiting To Blow Up?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Thrylos grasping at straws is about as bad as Nolasco's performance on the mound.

 

Nolasco and Milone are both awful pitchers. Get real.

Milone is far from an awful pitcher. He has roughly three seasons of average ERA.

 

No, he's not a sexy strikeout guy but he gets the job done. He's a useful piece as a fifth starter, I merely wish the Twins had better 1-4 guys.

[alarp33]

 

my opp BABIP would be about .800 too, not because they're lucky tho, BECAUSE I SUCK. thats the same deal with Ricky

 

Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Tyson Ross, Lance Lynn, and Carlos Martinez were all top 10 in the league in highest BABIP against... They must suck, right?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Tyson Ross, Lance Lynn, and Carlos Martinez were all top 10 in the league in highest BABIP against... They must suck, right?

Very true but one of my biggest problems with commonly-used advanced metrics is that they fail to acknowledge some things aren't luck-based. It's hard to normalize a pitcher who gives up frozen ropes all over the field.

 

See Nolasco, Ricky. His 2014 wasn't unlucky; he was an awful pitcher. Hitters didn't squeak through a hit or two, they were squaring up on him and drilling the ball.

 

But your point about BABIP is correct, my point is more about SLG and that normalizing some performances make them less accurate, not more. Ricky deserved every bit of that 5.30 ERA in 2014.

[jorgenswest]

Thrylos grasping at straws is about as bad as Nolasco's performance on the mound.

Nolasco and Milone are both awful pitchers. Get real.

ERA+ since 2012 (all pitchers well over 500 innings)

 

Milone 99

Santana 96

Hughes 96

Nolasco 85

 

The various ERA estimators converge with ERA at 500 innings. ERA is meaningful at this sample.

Edited March 11, 2016 by jorgenswest

[ashbury]

Very true but one of my biggest problems with commonly-used advanced metrics is that they fail to acknowledge some things aren't luck-based. It's hard to normalize a pitcher who gives up frozen ropes all over the field.

Some people already complain that modern stats are too complicated. But these stats often contain a simplifying assumption that only highly-talented players (i.e. those who can hold onto a MLB job) are being measured. If a truly universal stat were devised, to measure pitchers on a spectrum from you or me to Clayton Kershaw, how much more arcane might it become?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Some people already complain that modern stats are too complicated. But these stats often contain a simplifying assumption that only highly-talented players (i.e. those who can hold onto a MLB job) are being measured. If a truly universal stat were devised, to measure pitchers on a spectrum from you or me to Clayton Kershaw, how much more arcane might it become?

I'm not saying metrics should necessarily change, only pointing out there are outliers (usually in the direction of "terrible") where the metrics shouldn't be used (or at least taken with a grain of salt).

 

For the vast majority of players, they're useful. For a few really crappy players, they normalize things and make those terrible players look better.

[alarp33]

 

Very true but one of my biggest problems with commonly-used advanced metrics is that they fail to acknowledge some things aren't luck-based. It's hard to normalize a pitcher who gives up frozen ropes all over the field.

See Nolasco, Ricky. His 2014 wasn't unlucky; he was an awful pitcher. Hitters didn't squeak through a hit or two, they were squaring up on him and drilling the ball.

But your point about BABIP is correct, my point is more about SLG and that normalizing some performances make them less accurate, not more. Ricky deserved every bit of that 5.30 ERA in 2014.

 

I wasn't trying to offer commentary on Nolasco, strictly was saying its absurd to say if you have a high BABIP against you must suck

[Ted Schwerzler]

 

See what I mean?  There is bias

 

Perkins was by far not the best closer in the AL even when healthy (how do you measure that?)  

For what is worth in the first half Perkins ranked among AL relievers:

 

3rd BB/9, 4th ERA, 6th WAR, 7th in WHIP, 11th FIP, 20th in SIERA, 23rd xFIP, 38th K/9

 

Not best by any means.

 

And Nolasco was not healthy last season by any means.  Plus, I'd love to see how you predict that unlikely to succeed in the AL bit.   Better FIP and K/9 than Milone with the Twins and close to those of E. Santana and Gibson with the Twins.  How about their possibilities to succeed in the AL?

 

Perkins until the break last year converted 28 straight saves to the tune of a 1.21 ERA .188/.217/.246 slash line. If you're looking for your lock down guy to do more than that, I can't help you.

 

Nolasco owned a 4.37 ERA a 3.76 FIP with a 7.4 K/9 in the NL. Those numbers are essentially middle of the rotation type. They were going to go down in the tougher AL, almost guaranteed.

I guess I'm not sure what the confusion is there...

[Blake]

 

You know, I think that tweet of Nolasco's was waaaaaaaaay overblown, and still is, what, a year and half later. A fan of his said wishe you were here, why wouldn't he say 'So do I.' I would have, too, since the Twins did nothing and the Dodgers were in the playoffs that year. Big deal. And everyone is still cursing him for it. I should have used this for GET OVER IT Day! While this latest bit isn't endearing in the least, maybe have some fan support behind him could help boost his performance instead of wanting nothing to do where he's at. Yeah, he's a professional, act like it, but I think fan reaction with this has made it impossible.

Well, that tweet along with the recent nonsense regarding a move to the bullpen isn't endearing to MN fans. I tend to think MN fans are much more forgiving of a players failings than a lot of MLB fans. However, it is a two way street, in that a player also has to show he is willing to put forth the effort to earn the respect of the fans. Beyond a certain point, a player needs to have success in order to maintain the respect of the fan base.

 

I suggest that as of right now, Mr. Nolasco is on probation, at best.

[Blake]

 

I believe I have posted this in the past, but based on my observations of his twitter posts ever since he signed with the Twins, I always got the feeling that Nolasco's heart really isn't in Minnesota. I don't think he really wanted to come to Minnesota, he just signed because of the money the Twins offered him.

 

You can refute that all you want (e.g. say that many players sign the biggest contracts they are offered), but he's the only Twins player that I've gotten that vibe from. This isn't new, I've felt this way for the last couple of years. I just never got the feeling that he's ever really been happy in Minnesota. So this news really doesn't surprise me at all.

I know this is the perception I have and I cannot believe we're the only ones.

[laloesch]

 

I agree the tweet is overblown. He was immature to tweet back "So do I!!!!!!!!!!!!!" in response to the Dodgers fan, and us fans are immature for reading into a tweet in the first place. 

 

 

We'll the saying "it is what it is" holds meaning here.  So while i agree he was immature to tweet back the extra emphasis (explanation points) says it all.  I don't think the fans are being immature for "reading into that tweet."  It's obvious he's not happy here and only came for the pay day.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I wasn't trying to offer commentary on Nolasco, strictly was saying its absurd to say if you have a high BABIP against you must suck

Oh, sure. We agree on that, obviously... But I cringe every time I see someone post Nolasco's Minnesota FIP as proof of anything (I believe someone else in the thread used the number, not you).

 

He was a terrible pitcher in 2014. Terrible. It wasn't luck-related. He was just bad.

[jorgenswest]

Jeff Sullivan wrote this during the 2013 season.

 

"When a guy’s ERA doesn’t match his FIP for a year, usually we don’t mind it. We blame it on sequencing or coincidence. Two years, still, it can be noise. But between 2006-2012, Nolasco threw more than 1,100 innings, which is a pretty enormous sample size. There was reason to believe this was a serious problem."

 

Several hundred innings later and the discrepancy between his performance and peripherals hasn't changed.

[REPETE]

I don't know how you can compare Perkins to Nolasco.  Nolasco was by FAR the better team player last year, by taking the year off.  If he struggles again this spring, and April, I'm sure he can develop another ailment landing him on the 180 DL.  Now THAT'S a Team Player!  

[dgwills]

 

a.  The new team would have to fulfill his current contract

b. It is his right as a 5+ year MLB veteran.  At that point the Twins have the choice of either keeping him on their 25 man roster or releasing him (and thus have him become a free agent.)  In both choices the Twins will have to fulfill his current contract (ie. have to pay him.) 

Not quite. There's 3 things that can happen if he refuses assignment.  You're right about the first one. The second is if he go's unclaimed he can just not play. He get's paid to not play, but the Twins still control his rights. The third is that Nolasco can choose free agency. He forfeits his contract if he does that, so it would never happen.

[Reider]

 

You know, I think that tweet of Nolasco's was waaaaaaaaay overblown, and still is, what, a year and half later. A fan of his said wishe you were here, why wouldn't he say 'So do I.' I would have, too, since the Twins did nothing and the Dodgers were in the playoffs that year. Big deal. And everyone is still cursing him for it. I should have used this for GET OVER IT Day! While this latest bit isn't endearing in the least, maybe have some fan support behind him could help boost his performance instead of wanting nothing to do where he's at. Yeah, he's a professional, act like it, but I think fan reaction with this has made it impossible.

 

It wasn't just that one tweet. It was multiple tweets / sources. When you consider that tweet, plus the fact that he was still proudly wearing his dodgers hat out in public after signing / playing with the Twins and then if I recall correctly he posted something or replied to a fan something along the lines of that he can't wait to get back home or can't wait to get back to California or something along those lines. It's been a while now, so I forget how it was worded.

 

And I haven't even been reading his tweets over the last year or so. I'm sure there's more evidence out there.

 

The point is, when you read any other Twins players' tweets they are proud to be a Twin or are talking about winning as a Twin or hanging out with other Twins players etc.. When I read his, he always seemed like he at best only had one of his baby toes in the organization. I just never got the feeling that he's really embraced being a Twin.

 

Then when these articles / threads on here pop up about his current attitude / state of mind / level of play, well hello! It doesn't surprise me at all.

 

Deny Deny Deny all you want, but for me this has all been way too predictable.

 

Edited March 11, 2016 by Reider

[Squirrel]

It wasn't just that one tweet. It was multiple tweets / sources. When you consider that tweet, plus the fact that he was still proudly wearing his dodgers hat out in public after signing / playing with the Twins and then if I recall correctly he posted something or replied to a fan something along the lines of that he can't wait to get back home or can't wait to get back to California or something along those lines. It's been a while now, so I forget how it was worded.

 

And I haven't even been reading his tweets over the last year or so. I'm sure there's more evidence out there.

 

The point is, when you read any other Twins players' tweets they are proud to be a Twin or are talking about winning as a Twin or hanging out with other Twins players etc.. When I read his, he always seemed like he at best only had one of his baby toes in the organization. I just never got the feeling that he's really embraced being a Twin.

 

Then when these articles / threads on here pop up about his current attitude / state of mind / level of play, well hello! It doesn't surprise me at all.

 

Deny Deny Deny all you want, but for me this has all been way too predictable.

It was way overblown, IMO. I think fans read into it waaaaaaaaaaay too much and interpreted his 'I do too!!!!!!' to mean 'I hate being a Twin!!!!!!!' Is he supposed to wear a Twins hat wherever he goes? Is he supposed to reply to an enthusiastic fan 'I don't, so get over it!!!!!!!!!' That said, could he have handled it better? Omg, yes! I don't like Nolasco for what he's done on the mound ... or rather what he hasn't done, not because insecure fans are crying boo hoo over a tweet, a tweet that happened 18 months ago. While I doubt it, just maybe our actions have done nothing to help th situation. But then, that's not our jobs, either.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Not quite. There's 3 things that can happen if he refuses assignment.  You're right about the first one. The second is if he go's unclaimed he can just not play. He get's paid to not play, but the Twins still control his rights. The third is that Nolasco can choose free agency. He forfeits his contract if he does that, so it would never happen.

Never say never. It would rarely happen. Nishioka walked out on the last year of his contract, leaving money on the Twins' table.

[Squirrel]

 

Never say never. It would rarely happen. Nishioka walked out on the last year of his contract, leaving money on the Twins' table.

Yeah, because he had a contract and big money waiting for him in Japan, no? Or did I get that confused with someone else?

[Wizard11]

On a tangential note I am kind of surprised Molitor and Twins fans are so readily embracing Tyler Duffey for a rotation spot. He has had a handful of ML starts and not a great deal of High Minors experience. He essentially has only 2 pitches. Moreover he had extensive collegiate experience as a reliever and threw hard in that role. Trevor May has been a starter for most of his career and has 3 viable pitches. He also has a great deal more experience against ML and high minor's hitters. Would it not be logical that May would in fact be the 4th starter? I like both young pitchers but this seems like a better deployment of them. For my part I will not get too shook up whether Milone or Nolasco gets the 5th spot. The difference between those two in the Twins win column is likely zero.

[Wizard11]

Perhaps those comments should have been a new thread...

[Platoon]

I don't like Nolasco for what he's done on the mound ... or rather what he hasn't done, not because insecure fans are crying boo hoo over a tweet, a tweet that happened 18 months ago.

An insecure Minnesotan? Never heard of such a thing! We just want to be liked, and never have anyone say anything negative about our state, our teams, or our Funeral Hotdish!

[howieramone2]

 

I don't know how you can compare Perkins to Nolasco.  Nolasco was by FAR the better team player last year, by taking the year off.  If he struggles again this spring, and April, I'm sure he can develop another ailment landing him on the 180 DL.  Now THAT'S a Team Player!  

I don't consider a broken ankle an ailment.

[REPETE]

 

I don't consider a broken ankle an ailment.

I'm guessing that broken ankle came from Molitor ordering Gene Glynn to do his imitation of Cathy Bates in Misery.  One road trip, and Nolasco's hobbled for the rest of the year, problem solved.  Same thing can happen this year if Nolasco proves to be completely ineffective, especially if he refuses to go to the bullpen.  .  

[TwinsFan4Life]

Let's give Nolasco the same protection that Mauer is given on this site, and have this thread locked. There is too much negative talk about Nolasco here.

[jimmer]

 

Let's give Nolasco the same protection that Mauer is given on this site, and have this thread locked. There is too much negative talk about Nolasco here.

This site has had a ton of Mauer bashing on it for quite some time. He's constantly been slammed no matter what or who the thread is about.   Finding a reason to slam Mauer and blame him and/or his contract  for our woes is like a sport in here.  

 

Yes, finally a comment was made by the powers that be that maybe enough is enough in regards to him until something new to slam him about comes along.

 

Let's not act as if it's never been allowed. He's taken more grief than all other Twins players combined on this site.

Edited March 13, 2016 by jimmer

[Brock Beauchamp]

Back to Nolasco:

 

It's still only March 13th but has he already pitched his way out of the rotation conversation? His results are bad but I'm seeing the same problems I saw in 2014/15: hitters continue to square up on him and pull the ball. They're not squeaking through with walks and bloopers; they're drilling the ball.

[Vanimal46]

Yep not a good sign if he's not able to fool hitters. Even worse that hitters are tattooing his pitches.

 

Unfortunately he's still at a 90+% chance at making the opening day roster. If financial obligations were taken out of the equation, I don't know how anyone can justify him being the 12-13th best P in the organization.

[Thrylos]

 

, I don't know how anyone can justify him being the 12-13th best P in the organization.

 

Measured by?

[Vanimal46]

Measured by?

The eye ball test of getting tattooed and not fooling hitters this spring.