Article: Is The Twins System Broken?

[Cody Christie]

An annual ritual for many baseball fans is the release of the Baseball Prospectus Handbook. It has in-depth coverage for every MLB franchise and commentary on almost 2,000 players. For some fans, this is the "Baseball Bible" for the coming season as they try to gain an advantage in the fantasy baseball realm or just want to know more about the sport they love.

 

I was a first time buyer this season and was surprised to see how big the almost 600-page book was when it arrived at my home. After marveling at it's size, I quickly paged open to the Minnesota Twins section of the book. Twins Territory is flying high after last season so I was ready to read great reviews about the little team that could in 2015.

 

I was wrong. In fact as I flipped through the pages, a thought started to creep into my head. What if the Twins system is broken?It's no secret that the Twins aren't exactly at the forefront of the analytic-driven baseball universe. In fact, Minnesota might be one of the organizations that is furthest behind when it comes to using analytics to drive front office decision- making. Under the Terry Ryan regime, the way teams are built is through player development and acquisitions.

 

Last spring, the folks at Baseball Prospectus attempted to name "Every Team's Moneyball." This series looked to identify the one area team's use to gain an advantage over other clubs. Spoiler alert: The Twins don't have a "Moneyball" strategy. With Ryan at the helm, they are attempting to use scouting and player development because that's the strategy that worked with the Twins teams of the 2000s.

 

Player Development

Developing prospects is challenging since there's no magic formula to turn a budding prospect into a contributor at the big league level. Miguel Sano's talent was hard to deny even as the organization signed him as a teenager. Sano's rookie campaign was great but he's got a lot left to prove before he can solidify himself at baseball's highest level.

 

For every one Miguel Sano story, there are going to be other young players that aren't able to make consistent contributions. Oswaldo Arcia was ranked highly on many Twins prospect lists and he even hit 20 home runs in 2014. Last year, he was limited to 19 MLB games and the team didn't even get a September call-up. Like Arcia, fans were excited by Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas in their rookie seasons. Each of these players has shown their flaws with more big league time.

 

Players like Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, and Max Kepler haven't played enough at the big league level to grade the organization on the players' development. Kepler made major strides last season and Berrios continues to look like the real deal. If Buxton can become the player most think he will be, the Twins system might be back on the right track.

 

Free Agent Acquisitions

In the last handful of seasons, the Twins have signed some of their richest free agent deals in team history. Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes were brought into the fold during the 2014 offseason. Nolasco's four-year deal is looking like a disaster after two seasons. Hughes had a record breaking first season in Minnesota but the Twins decided to reward him with an extension and he came back down to earth in 2015.

 

Kurt Suzuki fits into the same mold as Hughes. He was selected to the AL All-Star team and the Twins signed him to an extension before seeing a drop in production in 2015. Ervin Santana signed last offseason and the team quickly found out that he would be suspended for the season's first 80 games. Santana's second half was up and down and fans will have to reevaluate his signing after a full campaign.

 

Other teams might have looked at Suzuki and Hughes and known that their age and previous track records were more indicative of their future performance. Trading those players at a the peak of their value could have brought other assets into the organization. This offseason Minnesota has been much quieter on the free agent market and this could be a result of some of their decisions over the last two years.

 

Trades

Aaron Hicks was starting to look like a player to be filed in the failed prospect development department. This was before the 2015 season where he finally looked like he might be able to contribute on a regular basis. With the Suzuki situation mentioned above and top catching prospects at least a year away, the Twins needed to add some catching depth. Minnesota dealt Hicks to the Yankees for catcher John Ryan Murphy. Murphy could be a huge piece for the Twins moving forward but only time will tell about what he can do in Minnesota.

 

Minnesota surprised a lot of the baseball world by being in contention around last year's trade deadline. To help bolster their bullpen, Ryan dealt Chih-Wei Hu and Alexi Tapia to the Rays for Kevin Jepsen. With closer Glen Perkins dealing with injuries, Jepsen was asked to take over the closing duties. He led the American League in appearances and he will be a vital part of the Twins 2016 bullpen.

 

With Sano's emergence, there has been plenty of talk about trading current third baseman Trevor Plouffe. Minnesota doesn't seem to be in a hurry as Sano will be relegated to outfield duty this year and Plouffe can't be a free agent until 2018. There still might be a future trade involving Plouffe and maybe Ryan is waiting to get the right kind of value in return.

 

At this point, it seems tough to know if the Twins system is broken. Ryan has been back at the helm for four years and the picture is still being painted. Can a core of Buxton, Sano and Berrios be the team that brings a title back to Minnesota?

 

Only time will tell.

 

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[Seth Stohs]

 

Of course it's broken.  Terry Ryan said himself years ago the game has passed him by.  Yes Terry, it has.

 

Dave St. Peter has no baseball background at all and any time he has chimed in on baseball related matters, he's been wrong.  

 

I'll disagree on both counts. Terry Ryan will always be a scout, and trust his scouts, but he's also said to listen to the stats guys and every other piece of information he has available to him. He's a very smart guy.

 

Also, Dave St. Peter doesn't need to know the baseball side of the operation. He needs to run the program. Baseball background has nothing to do with that job. 

[big dog]

So instead of another thread where we continually debate whether the glass is half-full or half-empty, here's one debating whether the glass is badly cracked or completely shattered.

 

Knock yourselves out.  For those who are planning to tell me "if you don't like it start your own thread", I would but lately they all seem to end up in the same place anyway,  It's kind of like listening to Reusse except without the hilarious cackling.  Extending Kurt Suzuki, Jason Bartlett, I suppose Mauer and Ortiz and the bullpen can only be a few posts away.

 

If anyone out there has a baseball glove, lives in northern Illinois, and wants to play catch, I'm available.  Have a great day.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

 

Minnesota might be one of the organizations that is furthest behind when it comes to using analytics to drive front office decision-making. Under the Terry Ryan regime, the way teams are built is through player development and acquisitions.

 

At first reading, this doesn't make sense. All teams are built through player development and acquisitions, no?

 

It seems like that first point is really to critique how much analytics (and what kind of analytics) feed into the development and acquisition processes. I think that's a good point, but I'm also not sure it's the same point the rest of the article is making.

[Squirrel]

So instead of another thread where we continually debate whether the glass is half-full or half-empty, here's one debating whether the glass is badly cracked or completely shattered.

 

Knock yourselves out.  For those who are planning to tell me "if you don't like it start your own thread", I would but lately they all seem to end up in the same place anyway,  It's kind of like listening to Reusse except without the hilarious cackling.  Extending Kurt Suzuki, Jason Bartlett, I suppose Mauer and Ortiz and the bullpen can only be a few posts away.

 

If anyone out there has a baseball glove, lives in northern Illinois, and wants to play catch, I'm available.  Have a great day.

If you ever get into the city, let me know. Haven't thrown a ball in a few years, though. After s couple of injuries on the field I decided it was time to hang it up.

[dbminn]

Entering 2016, the Twins have plenty of positions that need improvement. The rotation is average at best. There are too many players available for 3B and, at least to start the season, not enough competent OF. A veteran RP would be nice. The young players have yet to reach their prime or, in some cases, show their worth.

 

There has been almost no attempt to improve the roster because Ryan doesn't wheel and deal. He has no desire to make big trades. I would like to see a different GM at the end of the season, someone who is willing and able to make the moves necessary to compete at the highest level. (Actually, I would've liked to have seen a new GM last year)

 

But is the FO broke? Hardly. The Twins record improved by 13 wins last year. They have a top-five prospect list. There is system depth at almost every position. Ryan acquired a C, a position where depth was an issue. He convinced the Pohlads to take a flyer on a Korean power hitter. The greatest outrages are Sano's move to the OF (a legit argument, IMO) and the need for a fourth RP (a lot of angst for maybe 0.5 WAR improvement). The Twins are not a pile of disparate pieces.

 

Like it or not, Ryan has a clear plan to build from within. Whether it will result in a World Series win is an open question.  It will probably be one more year before the Twins are even ready to compete for the division.

 

Under a best case, a different GM could have made a couple of moves to improve chances this year - at some risk. So what? It's time for Spring Training. We have an interesting roster taking to the fields. A time to set a little bit of cynicism aside and enjoy a young team with a lot of potential.

 

We'll get the chance to see several young power arms arrive to help the bullpen this year. Berrios will arrive. Plenty of young position players will be worth watching as they develop in 2016. I'm excited for the season, the chance to see these youngsters take the field. Why? Because the FO is not broke. The Twins are a team on the rise. Let Cincinnati bring out the pitchforks for their FO.

 

 

Edited February 23, 2016 by dbminn

[alarp33]

 

I'll disagree on both counts. Terry Ryan will always be a scout, and trust his scouts, but he's also said to listen to the stats guys and every other piece of information he has available to him. He's a very smart guy.

 

Also, Dave St. Peter doesn't need to know the baseball side of the operation. He needs to run the program. Baseball background has nothing to do with that job. 

 

I don't have a list in front of me, but don't most teams now have a president of baseball operations, or a President that does have baseball experience?  

Why does St. Peter get a pass for the TV deal that we keep hearing is way under market value, I assume he was the one who negotiated it?

 

The sooner they replace Rob Antony, the better

[Squirrel]

Moderator warning: No matter where you are on this issue, keep it respectful. You can dislike individuals in the FO all you want and can say so all you want, you can question and debate their decisions all you want, but using terminology such as 'idiot' or 'moron' or other such names about anyone, is against our comment policy at TD.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I don't have a list in front of me, but don't most teams now have a president of baseball operations, or a President that does have baseball experience?  

Why does St. Peter get a pass for the TV deal that we keep hearing is way under market value, I assume he was the one who negotiated it?

 

The sooner they replace Rob Antony, the better

 

Depends on the team. Tony Larussa is Director of Baseball Operations for the Diamondbacks (or some title like that), and Dave Stewart is the GM. I'm guessing Larussa isn't the one in charge of the stadium, marketing, sales, merchandising, and all that other stuff like St. Peter is. 

 

I'm kind of guessing that he got exactly market value for the TV deal...

 

And, I don't know where the Rob Antony comment came from, but by all accounts, he is very good at the responsibilities that he is given (contracts, negotiations, etc.). 

[HitInAPinch]

 

I'll disagree on both counts. Terry Ryan will always be a scout, and trust his scouts, but he's also said to listen to the stats guys and every other piece of information he has available to him. He's a very smart guy.

 

Also, Dave St. Peter doesn't need to know the baseball side of the operation. He needs to run the program. Baseball background has nothing to do with that job. 

I agree, Seth.  I don't remember the guy's name, but just a few weeks ago there was one of the people from the Twins analytic departments here responding to posts. 

 

And quite frankly, isn't any team's "system" [with the exception of those in MAJOR markets] really about player development?  I don't track all of the Twins MiLB leagues, but isn't true that there are 1-2 guys at each level showing MLB potential?

[Mike Sixel]

I don't see evidence one way or the other right now, frankly. IMO, we need another year or so to see if the FO has what it takes. There have been moves I really like, and moves I really, really hate.

 

Most of this team is NOT built through players brought up thru the system since Ryan came back. It is largely guys that were already here, or FAs. 

 

I would have preferred less number 3/5 types FA pitchers, and 1 elite one being signed, but it is possible no elite pitcher would sign here (btw, there is no way you can prove this, no matter what evidence you throw out). So, it is hard to say if that is a failure on the FO's part, or just something that would not happen in the last 3 years.

 

I would have preferred not signing a 30 year old from Korea to be the DH this year, given the players already on the roster. I would have preferred acquiring better RPs going into last year, and this year. But, if they really plan to give the young players a shot right away, I'm also ok with that.

 

Really, I think the main issues I have with the rebuild are:

a: I don't think they really ever committed to rebuilding

b: They settled for mediocre guys with no upside risk, instead of taking true flyers

c: The strategy of playing fly ball pitchers with terrible OF defense makes no sense

Edited February 23, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[alarp33]

 

Depends on the team. Tony Larussa is Director of Baseball Operations for the Diamondbacks (or some title like that), and Dave Stewart is the GM. I'm guessing Larussa isn't the one in charge of the stadium, marketing, sales, merchandising, and all that other stuff like St. Peter is. 

 

I'm kind of guessing that he got exactly market value for the TV deal...

 

And, I don't know where the Rob Antony comment came from, but by all accounts, he is very good at the responsibilities that he is given (contracts, negotiations, etc.). 

 

Andrew Friedman, Theo Epstein, Mark Shapiro, etc.  

 

Aren't they getting like $15 million this year only? That's not a market deal.  It may have been the day it was signed, but its bad business to put yourself in a non-negotiable long term deal like it sounds like they have. 

 

Rob Antony was just piggybacking on the front office/ broken system talk.  I would compare him to Bill Smith, but I don't think that would be fair to Bill. 

[Platoon]

You can be an excellent scout, and even listen to the stats guys. But that doesn't make you a good, or bad GM. I really believe Ryan knows a ball player when he sees one. But do you adjust your evaluations to the game and your needs. Ryan is very late to the game with power arms. And when the game was being played with big bats and lots of HR's we were the Piranhas! And now that it's switched to pitching and elite defense we are the next '27 Yankees! I wore my powder blue leisure suit to work today. I am either behind the times, or a trend setter. Whether he actually is a excellent scout, or a great GM, the bottom line is the results do not support that. I am very glad he didn't trade youth, or lock into long term contracts with a FA this year. But I am not sure if this was by design, or simply the function of a broken clock being right twice a day!

[Seth Stohs]

 

I agree, Seth.  I don't remember the guy's name, but just a few weeks ago there was one of the people from the Twins analytic departments here responding to posts. 

 

And quite frankly, isn't any team's "system" [with the exception of those in MAJOR markets] really about player development?  I don't track all of the Twins MiLB leagues, but isn't true that there are 1-2 guys at each level showing MLB potential?

 

In my opinion, player development is the most important thing for any baseball team. I would argue even those teams in major markets need to rely primarily on player development. 

 

I go back to the Yankees. They won their four consecutive World Series primarily due to the development of their core. Once they changed the game's economics and started buying players left and right, they haven't been as successful. Having a core of home-grown players is, in my opinion, vital to sustaining winning. Look at the Twins rosters in 1987 and 1991. Led by home-grown players and supplemented with 1-2 acquisitions that paid off. In 1987, it was getting Gladden and Reardon via trades before the season. In 1991, it was adding Mike Pagliurulo, Chili Davis and Jack Morris, three free agents that weren't at the top of the free agent class that year. It was also about adding Shane Mack in the Rule 5. But the core of Puckett, Hrbek, Gagne. In 1987, it was Viola, Brunansky, Gaetti. In 1991, it was Tapani, Erickson, and Knoblauch emerging from the minor leagues. 

[Mike Sixel]

Jack Morris received one of the larger FA contracts ever, at the time, correct?

 

I do agree, the core needs to be in place before filling in holes....but you need to fill in holes. McPhail did that, Ryan never has. We'll see if that has changed or not once they are competitive.

[Seth Stohs]

 

 

Aren't they getting like $15 million this year only? That's not a market deal.  It may have been the day it was signed, but its bad business to put yourself in a non-negotiable long term deal like it sounds like they have. 

 

Rob Antony was just piggybacking on the front office/ broken system talk.  I would compare him to Bill Smith, but I don't think that would be fair to Bill. 

 

According to Berardino's article on the TV deal a couple of weeks ago, it's believed that the Twins are closer to $40 million, though the Twins policy is not to talk about the specifics. So, that's all we've got.

 

Bill Smith was very good at his job too before he became GM. He's also done great work for the Twins since he lost the GM title. He's contributed a ton to the organization in his 30ish years. He wasn't a good GM necessarily, but he was very good at his job. I think Rob Antony is very good at his job as well. 

[Mike Sixel]

$40MM is not a lot in today's world.....which is amazing, really.

 

However, there should be enough money for this team to fill holes with free agents, if they draft and develop enough players.......but if your strategy is to have little spent on FAs, then you have to be better than everyone else at drafting, trading, and developing. Being the same won't work, because they'll spend more money than you.......

[jay]

 

What does this comment add to the discussion at all?

 

It communicates a desire for the wonderful TD staff to promote content on the front page that will be something more than a catchy, clickable headline with some vague reference to a BP book but contain a bunch of the same old storylines without any real analysis on the subject.

[tobi0040]

 

Also, Dave St. Peter doesn't need to know the baseball side of the operation. He needs to run the program. Baseball background has nothing to do with that job. 

 

Whether St. Peter , Smith, or guys like Anthony, it seems troubling to me that the Twins prefer internal candidates from totally unrelated business backgrounds like PR, Operations, Ticket Sales, etc. to run at times player personnel. 

[Han Joelo]

I thought the premise of the article seemed promising--do the Twins have any against the grain, Moneyball strategy at all?  But then it just states the BP decided the Twins don't, and moved onto a rehashing of current events.

 

I would have been interested to hear about how BP defined a MB strategy and how they came to the conclusion the Twins don't have one, even if it is the ol' college reliever-to-starter theory.

 

If the premise of the article is: the Twins "System" (definition please, I am getting the impression this is referring to the way in which they count cards while playing blackjack, in which case grouchy uncle Terry and his 'gut feelings' would certainly be seen unfavorably by the Harvard Math grads at BP) is broken, as evidenced by their lack of developed prospects…uggh, long sentence fail.

 

Arguments that throw out Sano, or top draft picks, because those are gimmes, seem pretty biased, as do ones who give little credibility to recently graduated players like Rosario or Duffy because they are unproven or something.  

 

[DaveW]

The Twins system has been broke for Sometime. The worst thing for it is when Terry Ryan decided to come back as the GM. After the Smith debacle it would have been a perfect time to clean house a bit and bring in an outside candidate. Of course that would only happen with a franchise with an owner who actually cared about more than just the balance sheet.

 

Don't even get me started on St. Peter, I can't respect him at after he greenlit and used a kid with cancer to push for a new ballpark. Ryan is at least a great guy and had a nice run for a while. St Peter? can't wait for him to be gone.

Edited February 23, 2016 by DaveW

[ToddlerHarmon]

Terry Ryan doesn't seem willing to risk winnable division titles to win World Series. By that, I mean he will not mess with a roster of good-enough players to bring in higher-upside players. Thus Nolasco can block Berrios, for example.

 

OTOH, Bill Smith did seem willing to take that risk, and look where that got us.

 

Winning a championship with the current leadership is going to take some dumb luck, like finding a Tyler Duffey who is better against the majors than the minors (assuming that lasts)

[nicksaviking]

I think the argument really isn't "Is the Twins system broken" so much as it is "Is the Twins system obsolete".

 

It might be, maybe not all of it though, maybe not most of it. After all, things are often cyclical and things that are old often times once again become new. The Astros and Cubs showed again last year that the homegrown method of drafting and acquiring young talent is a very practical way of winning. Again. That used to be in the Twins wheelhouse if it still isn't.

 

Plenty of other areas of the system surely have updates that are long overdue though.

 

 

[Teflon]

Whoever was influencing player decisions in 2015 was doing something correctly. The Twins gave up 77 fewer runs in 2015 than in 2014 which is why they improved 13 wins. On defense, four players had defensive wins above replacement values of minus 1 or worse in 2014. Of those, only Oswaldo Arcia was back with the club in 2015 and he didn't come close to playing enough to be his usual calamity in the outfield. Result - overall defensive wins above replacement for the Twins improved 5 games.  On the pitching mound, Twins pitchers get credit for the remaining 8 additional wins as Ervin Santana,and Kevin Jepsen were acquired, Kyle Gibson's role increased, Tyler Duffy emerged, and Trevor May, Tommy Milone and Mike Pelfrey pitched more effectively. Also, Kevin Correia, Anthony Swarzak, and Sam Deduno passed into Twins history and pure good luck limited Ricky Nolasco to only 37 innings.

[Riverbrian]

In my strange way of thinking.

 

I always wonder how someone outside of the room writes an opinion about how things are done inside the room and it's quoted as gospel.

 

Meanwhile when those inside the room speak... They are torn apart. I love bloggers and writers and I read them and enjoy a bunch of them but I don't understand how the things they type from outside the room seemingly carry more weight.

 

I have no idea if Terry Ryan is better or worse than Neil Huntington... How could I.

 

I know that I don't always agree with Terry Ryan but I refuse to disrespect him because he has a different idea than I do.

 

Is the system broken? I don't know but I doubt it because water is still coming out of the tap.

[Squirrel]

 

In my strange way of thinking.

I always wonder how someone outside of the room writes an opinion about how things are done inside the room and it's quoted as gospel.

Meanwhile when those inside the room speak... They are torn apart. I love bloggers and writers and I read them and enjoy a bunch of them but I don't understand how the things they type from outside the room seemingly carry more weight.

I have no idea if Terry Ryan is better or worse than Neil Huntington... How could I.

I know that I don't always agree with Terry Ryan but I refuse to disrespect him because he has a different idea than I do.

Is the system broken? I don't know but I doubt it because water is still coming out of the tap.

Doesn't mean you can't get new faucet fixtures, though, that might function better.

[Mike Sixel]

I think the Twins' system would work just fine, if they would sign legit FAs to fill the holes once they are contenders (or trade prospects for them). You know, like McPhail did, and Ryan didn't, before.

 

We'll see....we'll see.

[Platoon]

I for one do not disrespect Ryan, he is a baseball lifer! But the results for his tenure do in no way indicate he is a successful GM when using W/L as a criteria. If you use the "successful business model" as a criteria, he is a raving genius. I guess it's in the eye of the beholder. If you view the team as a sports entity whose goal is to win games, and build a consistent talent pool, or if you want it to be run like one of the Pohlads car dealerships. Either or, it's a signifantly different mindset!

[Mike Sixel]

I don't see a lot of disrespect on this thread......

[mikelink45]

This is not an easy question to answer and I, like most of you, lack all the information needed.  I can say that I am bothered by TR blocking young players with older acquisitions who have no upside and then signing them to contracts beyond the immediate need.  This has happened numerous times and is not a good way to build the roster.   

But where are our sustained runs to excellence.  We have had three series in 55 years which is better than some teams, but what I find frustrating are the close but no chance years when we would not make the move to get us out of round one.  

We have a poor record of developing pitching staffs and continue to lack that ACE despite the fact that it was Morris, Viola, and Kaat that made the World Series possible.  I never want us pursuing the over age veteran who gets the long term contracts like Pujols, but I also do not want the mediocre two-four year contracts that we have had since TR came in.

We can say that Nolasco might still become something, but even so it was a bad contract.  

 

What this adds up to is a system that is not broken, but it is not good.  Only Seth and others who follow the minors can know if we are good in moving players along, getting them ready for the bigs, making significant progress.

 

We can look at trades and signings and hold our noses, but the minor leagues is a different issue. 

 

The only true judgment will be in 2018 - are we on our way to being a real contender for the Series?