Article: Struggles Have Highlighted Twins Correct Deadline Decisions

[twinsnorth49]

Either Ryan vastly overrates this team or he has very little faith in it, I'm not even sure which. I tend to think it's the former considering the Jepsen deal, otherwise why bother?

[mickeymental]

 

I'll disagree on the "wait and see" premise with prospects because I believe, right or wrong, that we have an advantage over every other team in baseball when it comes to evaluating our own talent.  We see who has the work ethic, attitude, and general health to make it.  We know who stays out too late, who won't stop eating, who won't quit drinking, who won't take coaching, and perhaps those who are an injury waiting to happen.  If we "wait to see" if they succeed in the big leagues, we lose much of that advantage.  Teams and fans alike can see what kind of player you have by watching Sportscenter.  There were many Twinsdaily posters who were looking at Meyer the last couple years and hinted that he might be overrated by national prospect lists.  I remember being shocked when I actually saw Delmon Young play, because he in no way looked like the number 1 prospect in the game.  The Rays had to have seen that.  We couldn't look past some sweet stats.  Not that the eye test is the best way to access a player, but it's clear all of baseball viewed Delmon in higher regard than he probably deserved.  

Regarding standing pat, I do not see the team improving a ton internally.  Our biggest holes in the bigs are our biggest holes in the minors.  We don't have a true ace.  We don't have any lights out bull pen guys (Tonkin and Achter are NOT major league difference makers), we have no high-end shortstop, and we have no catcher of the future.  We can try to trade for one, but then why not trade now when they can help with a playoff run vs. trading after the season?  This leaves free agency, the Twins had better be very active in this regard next year.  And be ready to sell high on some guys before the deadline next year.

interesting take. your delmon young assessment reminds me of back when david west was the supposed prize of the viola-to-the-mets trade. after twins management saw him up close the consensus was "THIS is david west?!?!"

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Well written article but I disagree. Especially with the timing. The time to look back and say "meh, wouldn't have made a difference anyway" is in the offseason. The guys in the clubhouse were expecting reinforcements. Twins have an opportunity this year they weren't expecting, and the front office has so far pooched it. The team now needs to get out of Toronto ASAP and try and regroup to make a second go at this thing. The front office can still help if they want.

[jimbo92107]

 

we won't agree on this. Straddling the fence is never a good strategy.

You can't run while straddling a picket fence. Don't even try.

 

It is kind of confusing that the Twins neither traded for talent nor called up guys from their own system, until you realize that it probably just didn't matter. The Twins opted for the future value of patient development, judging that it's better to allow minor league players to continue without big league pressure for a little longer.

 

Wednesday we saw what pressure can do to a young pitcher. Tyler Duffey, probably the most mlb-ready arm in the system, got hammered by the most intimidating lineup in the majors. Clearly nervous, he was yanking his fastballs, falling away on his curves, stuff that's doubtless very unusual for him. He immediately got behind hitters, walked some, and then they punished him relentlessly. Toronto has so many power hitters now, you can't pitch around anybody.

 

In this case (big old 20-20 hindsight) it would have been far better to give Trevor May a spot start. Hopefully Duffey woke up this morning, wiped the sweat off his face and said, "What an awful dream!" Probably he won't look so bad in his next start.

 

Earlier we saw what too much pressure did to Danny Santana. Broke the kid down emotionally, and now he's trying to pick himself up in AAA. Same thing happened to Kennys Vargas and Oswaldo Arcia. The pressure to produce broke them down, and now they're trying to build themselves back up. Both Vargas and Arcia lost the confidence to bash balls over the fence, for fear of striking out.

 

Maybe the hardest thing in pro baseball is learning to deal with failure in a constructive way. You can make the adjustments quickly, slowly, or not at all.

 

The flip side of that argument puts the onus on management. The Minnesota Twins have been sending mixed messages to power hitters for quite a while now. Nearly drove David Ortiz crazy, and he was glad to escape to Boston, where they told him to go ahead and bash balls over the fence, and to hell with the K's. The Twins have always worried a lot about strikeouts, which can be ruinous to the mindset of young power hitters, who need to develop an aggressive approach where the green light is almost always on. You take away that aggression, guess what else goes away? The power.

 

This is probably why it is futile to wish for Adam Brett Walker in a Twins uniform anytime soon. The way the Twins abhor strikeouts, why would they ever consider bringing up a guy that whiffs 40 percent of the time?? Problem is, that still leaves 60 percent of the time that something dramatic happens. Most power hitters are not careful card players; their game is high stakes poker, seven card stud. They get good at reading the tells, and they pounce when they see their pitch. You can't tell these guys to back off and play more carefully. It's not their game.

[Mike Sixel]

That nerve thing is interesting. IMO, that's why guys should be brought up earlier, rather than later. Get the nerves out of the way BEFORE you are counting on them to be a key piece (like, while rebuilding and not contending).......or, put them in the bullpen first, then move them to start. Or, call them up to only play 2 games a week, and ease in.

 

I don't think we have any idea if the pressure did in Vargas and Arcia. Most national people I read said Vargas isn't a MLB player talent wise, and Arcia has a 100 ops+......I think there are other issues with those two.

[JB_Iowa]

Terry Ryan basically slapped the Twins' players in their faces. 

 

I don't find you worthwhile enough to do anything to help you out -- despite the fact that virtually every other team in contention is making bold moves.

 

He quit on the team and now the team has basically quit on him.

 

I hope attendance plummets.

 

 

[Kwak]

Examine the photo and the title used for this thread.  I would modify as following:  put Ryan in a Sabres Jersey and re-title  "Playing for the Draft Choice--because This Isn't Our Year".

[tobi0040]

 

Why is "do something once they got there" suddenly the standard, when it never was for the 2001-2011 Twins?  Especially since the playoffs have since expanded.  I'm not sure it's the trade deadline approach for the vast majority of contending MLB teams either.

 

(Also, an aside: Cap'n Piranha, you were ultimately correct that Papelbon was traded for meager return, although it was probably more about his no-trade clause and closer demands than anything else. Would you have endorsed the Twins acquiring him cheaply, and moving Perkins out of the closer spot?)

 

I don't know that Papelbon was 100% committed to only closing. He had a contract kicker if he met a certain number of saves. If memory serves he was 5-7 saves away.  Some potential middle ground could have been pitching him on tearing up his contract and making the kicker automatic.  Then Perkins and Pap could have alternated 8-9 based on matchup, then you have O'Rourke vs. lefties and Jepsen who has good numbers against righties.  That is a good pen in tight games.

 

The issue for me is we were one reliever away from improving multiple spots.  We are not using May or Jepsen appropriately because we lack a good 8th inning guy. Papelbon, Benoit, etc. would have improved the 8th inning, 7th inning, and rotation in one swoop.  Likewise, swapping Arcia for Robinson would improve our bench against lefties and our lineup against righties.

Edited August 6, 2015 by tobi0040

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't know that Papelbon was 100% committed to only closing. He had a contract kicker if he met a certain number of saves. If memory serves he was 5-7 saves away.  Some potential middle ground could have been pitching him on tearing up his contract and making the kicker automatic.

Washington guaranteed the option year, but also had to promise him the exclusive closer's job for him to approve the deal.

[tobi0040]

 

Washington guaranteed the option year, but also had to promise him the exclusive closer's job for him to approve the deal.

 

What a weirdo.

[Blake]

As I have posted elsewhere, I think the Oakland Face-Plant factored in the trade deadline non-moves.

 

Had the Twins taken care of business in Oakland, which they should have, there might have been more done at the deadline.

 

Right now, the Twins are still in the process of figuring out what they have and if what they have is enough for a playoff drive.

 

There is a youth movement that looks promising and also needs to know what it's like to be under pressure to win.

 

The team needed to step up against a bad team and, instead, fell apart. 

 

I didn't expect the Twins to be in it in August this year, but here we are. 

 

Next year, though, there should be enough experience and pitching for the Twins to make some noise. I don't think this year is the year for the Twins to really go for broke. Next year, though, I expect more.

 

Contention next year is sort of expected. Contention this year is a bonus.

Edited August 6, 2015 by Blake

[Mike Sixel]

Still waiting for an answer the very good question posted earlier.......

 

"What results would have shown the deadline (non)-Moves to be the wrong decision."

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Again, you don't have to fix every hole to fix one hole......Tulo went for pennies on the dollar, that's a national consensus. He isn't a 1 year rental.

 

Again, it's a straw man to suggest that anyone here suggested they try to fix EVERY hole. No one here is arguing that. The OP is arguing that not really doing anything, other than giving up assets for 1 player we ALL agree won't move the needle was a good idea.....

 

I have to quibble with the pennies on the dollar statement.  You can't judge this trade now because the Rockies got Reyes and 3 lottery tickets.  Castro started the year as the Blue Jays closer, at the age of 20.  That didn't stick, but again, he's 20.  Hoffman was the ninth overall pick just last year.  Tinoco has a 2.76 FIP in A-ball this year.

 

Additionally, I've never stated that people were advocating to fix every hole.  I'm saying, what's the point of fixing any of the holes, as just fixing one won't make us a legitimate contender this year.  Let's say we got Tulo--are you cool with playing a one-game playoff started by Phil Hughes?  Let's say we got David Price--do you think our dumpster fire bullpen can hold a lead when it counts?  Maybe we got a couple relievers to solidify the bullpen--do you trust our rickety lineup to score enough to get us the win?  I think we could, but I'm not confident about it.

 

I just don't get this idea that making the wild card game is something to be excited about.  Do you think A's fans are fondly remembering their appearance in the wild card game last year?  Saying making the wild card game is making the playoffs is like saying making the "First 4" game in Dayton is making the NCAA tournament.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Still waiting for an answer the very good question posted earlier.......

 

"What results would have shown the deadline (non)-Moves to be the wrong decision."

 

In truth?

 

The Rockies/Padres/Phillies seriously competing for the WS in 2017-2021 with Kepler/Berrios/Polanco/Stewart et al prominently involved.

[Mike Sixel]

Tulo would be here next year, and after......for most of us, trading for him was for next year also, I think we've been fairly clear on that. Indeed, if you aren't going to try to win, why acquire Jepsen? Why not trade off Pelfrey, Duensing, Fien, Boyer (or just cut them)?

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

 

 

How are they launching for next year, with one of the older rosters in baseball, exactly?

 

 Projecting next year's opening day starters by age:

P: Gibson, 28

C: Suzie, 32

1B: Mauer, 33

2B: Dozier, 29

3B: Sano, 23

SS: Polanco, 25

LF: Rosario, 25

CF: Buxton, 22

RF: Hicks, 26

DH: Vargas, 26

 

and you can probably scratch Suzie in favor of someone a hair younger, but that's an average age of 27 for what look to be our starters next season, so I'd say they look pretty young.

Edited August 6, 2015 by Pardon My Dinger

[markos]

 

I just don't get this idea that making the wild card game is something to be excited about.  Do you think A's fans are fondly remembering their appearance in the wild card game last year?  Saying making the wild card game is making the playoffs is like saying making the "First 4" game in Dayton is making the NCAA tournament.

I don't think Royals fans minded making it to the wildcard game.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Projecting next year's opening day starters by age:

P: Gibson, 28

C: Suzie, 32

1B: Mauer, 33

2B: Dozier, 29

3B: Sano, 23

SS: Polanco, 25

LF: Rosario, 25

CF: Buxton, 22

RF: Hicks, 26

DH: Vargas, 26

 

and you can probably scratch Suzie in favor of someone a hair younger, but that's an average age of 24 for what look to be our starters next season, so I'd say they look pretty young.

Overall I like it, but who did we trade Plouffsie for? I didn't hear about this

[Mike Sixel]

 

 Projecting next year's opening day starters by age:

P: Gibson, 28

C: Suzie, 32

1B: Mauer, 33

2B: Dozier, 29

3B: Sano, 23

SS: Polanco, 25

LF: Rosario, 25

CF: Buxton, 22

RF: Hicks, 26

DH: Vargas, 26

 

and you can probably scratch Suzie in favor of someone a hair younger, but that's an average age of 24 for what look to be our starters next season, so I'd say they look pretty young.

 

Some pretty big assumptions in there....Polanco and Vargas among them.

 

You left off Santana, Nolasco, and all the RP......

 

edit: I see you re-did the math.....from 24 to 27.....

27 is young in your mind? Just to be clear, you think having an average age of 27 is young for a baseball team?

Edited August 6, 2015 by mike wants wins

[SwainZag]

 

Terry Ryan basically slapped the Twins' players in their faces. 

 

I don't find you worthwhile enough to do anything to help you out -- despite the fact that virtually every other team in contention is making bold moves.

 

He quit on the team and now the team has basically quit on him.

 

I hope attendance plummets.

 

I hate everything about this post.  Do you really think the Twins players feel slapped in the face they didn't bring in players?  I'm sure the ones that still have jobs don't.  I am guessing a few veterans feel they could have used some reinforcements, but it's only the beginning of August.  

 

I'm sure guys, especially the young ones are quitting on the team because the front office didn't bring in players to help them make the playoffs.  No one looking towards future money, playing time and a future quits on anything like this.  These guys are professionals, competitive and want to win.  Did the bats go through a little slump the last 10 games or so? Sure.  Are they quitting?  Please.  

 

You really hope the attendance plummets huh?  That's less money towards future teams.  Do you hope they lose as well?  I just don't get this line of thinking.  Sorry I am ranting.    

 

/rant

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Why is "do something once they got there" suddenly the standard, when it never was for the 2001-2011 Twins?  Especially since the playoffs have since expanded.  I'm not sure it's the trade deadline approach for the vast majority of contending MLB teams either.

 

(Also, an aside: Cap'n Piranha, you were ultimately correct that Papelbon was traded for meager return, although it was probably more about his no-trade clause and closer demands than anything else. Would you have endorsed the Twins acquiring him cheaply, and moving Perkins out of the closer spot?)

 

For me it's the standard because the playoffs have been expanded.  Playing one game and going home does nothing for me.  I don't care if we get to hang buntings for a day.  I don't care if we get nationally televised for one game.  If the Twins can't go into a series and say "we've got a chance to win this", I don't care if we make the playoffs.  In 2001 through 2011, I felt the Twins could've won every series they were in.  They (almost) never did, but there was never a series (except maybe 2009), where I honestly thought we couldn't win.

 

As for Papelbon, I would have been fine for acquiring him for Taylor Rogers or some AA starter, because he makes you better this year and next year.  I would've been fine with getting Tulo for a package of Gibson/Berrios, Polanco, and say Walker.  My guess is that the Rockies wanted Sano or Buxton included (I have no proof of this), but if that was the price, pass.  That being said, Tulo makes me nervous, as he's on the hook for $20M for the next 5 years, with a full no-trade clause.  He hasn't played more than 130 games since 2011, and 150 since 2009.  He's seeing more fastballs than ever, but he's making career-low contact when swinging.  He's chasing more pitches outside the zone, and swinging through pitches at a career-high rate.  This suggests that pitchers aren't as intimidated by him, which is borne out by his elevated k-rate (highest since his rookie year) and decreased bb rate (career low).  He's 31 in October, and his declining UZR suggests he may be losing his range in the field.  If that's the case, that's a lot of money to pay an injury-prone player who can't play second (Dozier) or third (Sano), leaving him as either a defensive liability at short, or a DH.

[rghrbek]

 

Overall I like it, but who did we trade Plouffsie for? I didn't hear about this

 

Also, the Twins have come out and said they are not signing Torii, fan favorite?

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I don't think Royals fans minded making it to the wildcard game.

 

The Royals also had a historically great bullpen.  Spoiler alert--we don't.

[Mike Sixel]

I think it is fair to question trading for Tulo.

 

I think it is BS to say trading for Tulo was only about this year, which some keep typing.

[Mike Sixel]

 

In truth?

 

The Rockies/Padres/Phillies seriously competing for the WS in 2017-2021 with Kepler/Berrios/Polanco/Stewart et al prominently involved.

 

That wasn't the question at all, was it?

 

The premise of the article was that the Twins are doing badly, ergo, standing still was a good idea. If the Twins had won every game since the break, would that have meant they should not make deal? Half the games?

 

What outcomes, produced by the TWINS, would lead the OP and others to conclude that standing still was a bad idea?

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Some pretty big assumptions in there....Polanco and Vargas among them.

 

You left off Santana, Nolasco, and all the RP......

 

edit: I see you re-did the math.....from 24 to 27.....

27 is young in your mind? Just to be clear, you think having an average age of 27 is young for a baseball team?

Yeah. whoopsiedoodle.

 

Ummmmm...thinking...I think that's probably pretty average, but in terms of the core group, I think we're looking very young. maybe it's just a matter of perspective.

[JB_Iowa]

 

I hate everything about this post.  Do you really think the Twins players feel slapped in the face they didn't bring in players?  I'm sure the ones that still have jobs don't.  I am guessing a few veterans feel they could have used some reinforcements, but it's only the beginning of August.  

 

I'm sure guys, especially the young ones are quitting on the team because the front office didn't bring in players to help them make the playoffs.  No one looking towards future money, playing time and a future quits on anything like this.  These guys are professionals, competitive and want to win.  Did the bats go through a little slump the last 10 games or so? Sure.  Are they quitting?  Please.  

 

You really hope the attendance plummets huh?  That's less money towards future teams.  Do you hope they lose as well?  I just don't get this line of thinking.  Sorry I am ranting.    

 

/rant

 

Yes, I do think that some of the players reacted negatively.  There were several (Dozier, Hunter primarily) who made it clear they hoped for help at the deadline.  And yes, they happen to be ones who wouldn't have lost their jobs but they are also the Team Leaders.

 

It was utterly demoralizing to have very little happen -- and even then not until the last moment.  TR basically said that this year is no different than any other -- I'm not willing to give up anything.  I'm not even willing to experiment with bringing guys from the minors to the bigs.  I'm basically going to sit on my hands.

 

The Twins will be sitting with prospects rotting away and unable to keep them all on the 40 man.  But that's okay, there's always next year, and the next, and the next.  

 

But someday never comes.  All they care about is putting b*tts in the seats for as long as possible.

 

No, I don't hope they lose.  But at some point ownership needs to figure out the TR isn't the answer and if it takes a drop in attendance to make that happen, so be it.

Edited August 6, 2015 by JB_Iowa

[brvama]

Talking about how TR should have done this or trade for that player, we sometimes overlook the difficulty in accomplishing that. We need to keep in mind trades don't happen as easy as trading bubblegum cards or fantasy league players.

 

Here is an interesting article at MLB Trade Rumors on the Tulo trade to Toronto: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/08/price-tulowitzki-trades-blue-jays.html

 

Now, given that, while I agree somewhat the cautious approach this deadline, I do wonder if TR has laid the good groundwork for future trades needed to complete the building of this team. He has managed some good trades, and some lousy ones, but the frequency makes me wonder if he is basically adverse to trading. This offseason will be a key for me.

 

I hold out hope that he makes the difficult decisions necessary to move this team into the elite category going forward.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

That wasn't the question at all, was it?

 

The premise of the article was that the Twins are doing badly, ergo, standing still was a good idea. If the Twins had won every game since the break, would that have meant they should not make deal? Half the games?

 

What outcomes, produced by the TWINS, would lead the OP and others to conclude that standing still was a bad idea?

 

That was the question.  Just because you don't like the answer doesn't mean it isn't the answer to your question.  When you're trading prospects, the only bad thing that happens is if the prospects you traded end up being studs.  Say we traded for Price and Cespedes, and they led us to the wild card game, where we lost.  Meanwhile, the prospects I mentioned become stars, and re-launch the TIgers franchise--that's bad.

 

Alternatively, let's say we say no to the deal, and Cespedes turns into Mickey Mantle for the rest of the year, and Price is Cy Young, while in the future, our prospects all flame out, and are out of baseball by 2019.  Then standing still was bad.

[Mike Sixel]

It's not necessarily bad, imo, if what you trade turns out to be great, if you got what you wanted in return. Trades are not a zero sum game, they can help both sides, even if 1 side gets "more" out of it.