Article: Struggles Have Highlighted Twins Correct Deadline Decisions

[Ted Schwerzler]

The calendar has flipped to August, the Minnesota Twins are now 51-51, just three games above .500, and the problems are mounting. Every indication suggests that the Twins did absolutely the right thing at the trade deadline. As they slip out of sole possession of a wild card spot, Terry Ryan has a new period of evaluation coming.For much of the season, the Twins were a team playing well above water. With an extremely impressive home record, while staving off regression, Minnesota distanced themselves from the pack. As it generally does, baseball has begun to shift back towards a statistical normalcy and the Twins have felt the squeeze.

 

Since the All-Star break, Minnesota is just 5-11. In those 16 games, the Twins offense has scored an average of 3.4 runs per game while surrendering 5.2 runs per game. Their bullpen has all but imploded, most obviously on the back end: Glen Perkins owns an 11.12 ERA since the break. The Twins offense has gone in the tank, and the winning has hit the skids. In their last three losses, Minnesota has scored just one run in each contest.

 

To say this was predictable is probably not unfair. Minnesota has a plethora of pitchers with inflated FIP (fielding independent pitching) marks and strong ERA's (in fact, acquired reliever Kevin Jepsen is among them). They have also seen a boost in the offense from unlikely sources such as Aaron Hicks (who had been incredibly hot), Eddie Rosario (who had been consistent), and Miguel Sano (who surprisingly had hit for average). At the root of the struggles though is that the Twins have watched it all come crashing down at the same time.

 

Blaine Boyer (3.02 ERA 4.28 FIP, still some regression to come) and Casey Fien (4.19 ERA 4.14 FIP) have started to even out, J.R. Graham has been knocked around (9.00 ERA in his last 8.0 IP), and we already touched on Perkins' struggles. Joe Mauer (.255/.317/.327), Torii Hunter (.204/.246/.370), and Brian Dozier (.217/.299/.450) have all slumped since the break. Starting pitching hasn't been great, and Tommy Milone (7.98 ERA in 142. IP since ASG) is now headed to the DL.

 

Terry Ryan is watching as each of the potential problem areas for the Twins rears its head at once. In that, he can find solace in knowing he did the absolutely right thing at the trade deadline. Fixing the bullpen, offense, and positions of need all at once without jumping the gun wasn't a realistic possibility. In a difficult test of patience, that is now paying dividends.

 

Staying put for the most part (aside from dealing for Jepsen who provides team control going forward), allows the Twins to continue along a realistic path. Despite being in position to grab a wild card spot, the heat of the summer was sure to sort things out. Regardless of the big moves by the Blue Jays (both David Price and Troy Tulowitzki count as just that), the Twins were going to have to continue to defy their own odds. In not sacrificing the blueprint that has been laid out, the next few years remain incredibly bright for the Twins.

 

As the 2015 major league baseball season rolls on, the Twins still have plenty to gain. Nowhere near out of the playoff race, call ups and seasoning can be provided to young and integral players in the midst of meaningful games. With Tyler Duffey paving the way and Jose Berrios likely soon to follow, Minnesota affords young arms a cup of coffee in the middle of real action. Miguel Sano, Hicks, Rosario, and even Byron Buxton can begin to settle into the highest level while competing for something on a nightly basis. In the end, it's the best outcome for everyone.

 

Going forward, the Twins already had plenty of reason to be realistic playoff contenders immediately in 2016 and onward. Thanks to the decision to hold onto the farm, the Twins should take plenty of valuable lessons and developmental instances away from 2015 even if they don't end up in the playoffs. As 2016 rolls around, they should enter as one of the two best teams in the Central, and the final two months of 2015 baseball will serve as the launching pad for that growth.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

 

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[brvama]

Thank you.

[Blake]

I agree.

 

 

 

 

[Winston Smith]

Is it possible that with a couple decent moves the team would be playing better?

[tobi0040]

Safe to say at this point that had we been more pro-active we would have 2-3 more wins. That would put us neck and neck for the wild card.  It would also have validated the effort of the team thus far and shows they are supported and believed in by the FO.  None of these moves would have cost a ton either.

 

Arcia for Robinson. 

 

Getting a better reliever.

 

Keeping May in the rotation, or moving him to long relief when he moved.  He would have had an additional 30 IP or so and stole them from Pelfrey and Duffey's last and next few starts.

[Mike Sixel]

ya, don't agree at all. Standing in place, and not calling up Duffey to the bullpen, or Berrios is not good thinking, imo.

 

Trading for a mediocre RP? Not a good decision, if that is all you do.

 

Keeping Duensing and Boyer on the roster is a good decision?

 

Keeping 13 pitchers, and not having Arcia up is a good decision?

 

we won't agree on this. Straddling the fence is never a good strategy.

 

How are they launching for next year, with one of the older rosters in baseball, exactly?

 

May starting yesterday would have been better than Duffey......they decided not to have him ready for that.......they decided that.

Edited August 6, 2015 by mike wants wins

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Is it possible that with a couple decent moves the team would be playing better?

 

Better?  Sure.  Good enough to make the playoffs?  Maybe, maybe not.  To be a legitimate threat to not only make the playoffs, but do something once they got there, the Twins would need another bat, a frontline starter, and at least 2 good relievers.  The package of prospects it would have taken to do all that would have been immense--think Berrios, Kepler, Polanco, Stewart for sure, and probably at least one of Gibson/May/Sano/Buxton.  That's way too much to give up.

[Tibs]

The trade for Jepsen makes even less sense to me if they were trying to stand pat at the deadline

Edited August 6, 2015 by Tibs

[tobi0040]

 

ya, don't agree at all. Standing in place, and not calling up Duffey to the bullpen, or Berrios is not good thinking, imo.

 

Trading for a mediocre RP? Not a good decision, if that is all you do.

 

Keeping Duensing and Boyer on the roster is a good decision?

 

Keeping 13 pitchers, and not having Arcia up is a good decision?

 

we won't agree on this. Straddling the fence is never a good strategy.

 

How are they launching for next year, with one of the older rosters in baseball, exactly?

 

May starting yesterday would have been better than Duffey......they decided not to have him ready for that.......they decided that.

 

Yeah, I think they could have done more this year without sacrificing next year. Nobody is suggesting we pulled a Toronto.   Arcia for Robinson, etc. are pretty obvious moves.

 

Most had a low bar and that was not met.  I think it shows a lack of conviction by the FO in this team.

 

 

Edited August 6, 2015 by tobi0040

[Mike Sixel]

 

Better?  Sure.  Good enough to make the playoffs?  Maybe, maybe not.  To be a legitimate threat to not only make the playoffs, but do something once they got there, the Twins would need another bat, a frontline starter, and at least 2 good relievers.  The package of prospects it would have taken to do all that would have been immense--think Berrios, Kepler, Polanco, Stewart for sure, and probably at least one of Gibson/May/Sano/Buxton.  That's way too much to give up.

 

Again, you don't have to fix every hole to fix one hole......Tulo went for pennies on the dollar, that's a national consensus. He isn't a 1 year rental.

 

Again, it's a straw man to suggest that anyone here suggested they try to fix EVERY hole. No one here is arguing that. The OP is arguing that not really doing anything, other than giving up assets for 1 player we ALL agree won't move the needle was a good idea.....

[tobi0040]

 

Again, you don't have to fix every hole to fix one hole......Tulo went for pennies on the dollar, that's a national consensus. He isn't a 1 year rental.

 

Again, it's a straw man to suggest that anyone here suggested they try to fix EVERY hole. No one here is arguing that. The OP is arguing that not really doing anything, other than giving up assets for 1 player we ALL agree won't move the needle was a good idea.....

 

There also has to be something between Jepsen and Tulo. We didn't do anything in between.  Lot of space there.

 

 

Edited August 6, 2015 by tobi0040

[Winston Smith]

Why does it take trading every top prospect to improve the team?

[amjgt]

What results would have shown the deadline (non)-Moves to be the wrong decision.

 

 

[tobi0040]

 

Why does it take trading every top prospect to improve the team?

 

That is what happens in every trade discussion. 

 

Step 1 - So and so is available. 

Step 2 - We all agree they would be an upgrade.  They are a little older and more expensive. 

Step 3 - Most folks say he will cost Berrios,Sano, or Buxton or two of the three.  Step 4 - Then most think we should keep the prospects.

Step 5 - The trade happens and the cost was about 80% less than everyone thought it would be.

[tobi0040]

The other interesting thing is maybe, just maybe the moves we didn't make has led to losing?

 

Last night for example.

 

Duffey gets the start somehow and gives up 6 ER

 

Graham is still here and gives up 3 ER.

 

Robinson comes up in a key spot, down 2 runs.

 

Our bench option late was Nunez. 

[nicksaviking]

I agree that the season was already slipping away past redemption at the deadline.

 

However the bullpen has taken the loss 17 times this year.  Had the pen been addressed in early June, the Twins might have have an even larger lead in the WC chase come the deadline.

 

Still, if Ryan wasn't going to go trade crazy because he too felt now was not the time, why was/is he sticking with the vets instead of prepping the young playes for contention in 2016?

 

It's all half measure with Ryan.

[diehardtwinsfan]

There's always negotiation on this.  Initial requests will always be absurd, but finding that person that both can agree on can be difficult.

 

I think trading the top prospect makes sense in certain circumstances (an OF, for instance will likely be made available within the next year if they all continue to develop as they are currently), but where the team is right now, you don't really know who is going to be a solid major leaguer and who isn't.  Hopefully, Hicks, Arcia, Kepler, Rosario, and Buxton all continue to improve and force this decision.  But until then, I think you let it play out.  One of those 5 may likely fail (or even 2 or 3), but you don't really know.  It's probably better long term waiting for that to happen than to make the trade and find out you sent off the wrong guy. 

[Boom Boom]

I disagree.

 

You can make a good, reasonable argument that giving away prospects for a chance at this year's wild card would be a mistake, but then why bother trading even fringy prospects for Jepsen? Sure he's under team control for another year, but you could easily pick up two or three Kevin Jepsens in the offseason without giving up anything.

 

In addition, the Twins had some veterans they could have dealt since they decided to punt on 2015. I don't think anyone is foolish enough to believe Kevin Jepsen is the missing piece, so why not sell?

[Mike Sixel]

You can't trade guys that bust.....if you wait to see who has value, you can't trade the other guys.

[USAFChief]

What results would have shown the deadline (non)-Moves to be the wrong decision.

great post.

[91TwinsFan]

I'd argue that the Twins got it wrong in that they continue to hang on to veterans who are plugging positions.  They should have traded Pelfrey before sending May to the bullpen.  He hasn't been as terrible this year as in years past and maybe you could have gotten more for him than we gave up for Jepsen.  Also, should start to think about what happens with Trevor Plouffe, if this isn't the year for the Twins to chase the playoffs, what does his future hold and are we holding onto someone who would be more valuable to the organizations future in trading him if we are in fact playing for next year.  I just think that if they weren't going to make a push this year that they should have gotten some value from some players who may not be a part of the core of this team in the next couple years.  I really like Plouffe and think that him and Sano are both valuable (Trevor's trade value will probably never be higher than it is now), but if we could fill more holes and rotate guys through the DH spot I think that's what is best for this team in 2016 and beyond, which is seemingly where this organization is looking.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Better?  Sure.  Good enough to make the playoffs?  Maybe, maybe not.  To be a legitimate threat to not only make the playoffs, but do something once they got there, the Twins would need another bat, a frontline starter, and at least 2 good relievers.

Why is "do something once they got there" suddenly the standard, when it never was for the 2001-2011 Twins?  Especially since the playoffs have since expanded.  I'm not sure it's the trade deadline approach for the vast majority of contending MLB teams either.

 

(Also, an aside: Cap'n Piranha, you were ultimately correct that Papelbon was traded for meager return, although it was probably more about his no-trade clause and closer demands than anything else. Would you have endorsed the Twins acquiring him cheaply, and moving Perkins out of the closer spot?)

[blindeke]

This isn't their year. Just look at this team, and their Pythag / adjusted record: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

[Mike Sixel]

 

This isn't their year. Just look at this team, and their Pythag / adjusted record: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

 

Proving what about their approach at the deadline? We can agree that they won't make the playoffs probably, while still disagreeing they did the right things at the deadline, can't we?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

What results would have shown the deadline (non)-Moves to be the wrong decision.

Exactly.  If we win, we apparently didn't need the help.  But if we lose, any moves wouldn't have helped enough anyway.

 

The maddening thing is that we're generally not getting blown out either.  Our starting pitching (where no one was recommending external moves) has been acceptable (Duffey excepted).  An extra bat or arm in the pen (several of which were available for non-top prospects) could have made a HUGE difference in multiple games recently.

[Jham]

 

There's always negotiation on this.  Initial requests will always be absurd, but finding that person that both can agree on can be difficult.

 

I think trading the top prospect makes sense in certain circumstances (an OF, for instance will likely be made available within the next year if they all continue to develop as they are currently), but where the team is right now, you don't really know who is going to be a solid major leaguer and who isn't.  Hopefully, Hicks, Arcia, Kepler, Rosario, and Buxton all continue to improve and force this decision.  But until then, I think you let it play out.  One of those 5 may likely fail (or even 2 or 3), but you don't really know.  It's probably better long term waiting for that to happen than to make the trade and find out you sent off the wrong guy. 

 

I'll disagree on the "wait and see" premise with prospects because I believe, right or wrong, that we have an advantage over every other team in baseball when it comes to evaluating our own talent.  We see who has the work ethic, attitude, and general health to make it.  We know who stays out too late, who won't stop eating, who won't quit drinking, who won't take coaching, and perhaps those who are an injury waiting to happen.  If we "wait to see" if they succeed in the big leagues, we lose much of that advantage.  Teams and fans alike can see what kind of player you have by watching Sportscenter.  There were many Twinsdaily posters who were looking at Meyer the last couple years and hinted that he might be overrated by national prospect lists.  I remember being shocked when I actually saw Delmon Young play, because he in no way looked like the number 1 prospect in the game.  The Rays had to have seen that.  We couldn't look past some sweet stats.  Not that the eye test is the best way to access a player, but it's clear all of baseball viewed Delmon in higher regard than he probably deserved.  

Regarding standing pat, I do not see the team improving a ton internally.  Our biggest holes in the bigs are our biggest holes in the minors.  We don't have a true ace.  We don't have any lights out bull pen guys (Tonkin and Achter are NOT major league difference makers), we have no high-end shortstop, and we have no catcher of the future.  We can try to trade for one, but then why not trade now when they can help with a playoff run vs. trading after the season?  This leaves free agency, the Twins had better be very active in this regard next year.  And be ready to sell high on some guys before the deadline next year.

 

[Headfirst]

The real question at the deadline was "do we have the pieces within the system to be contenders 2016 and beyond?"  Following the blueprint for the future I believe we do with some issues to address.

 

We all know that SS, C and RP were/are the holes.  Jepsen is an upgrade from Boyer and Graham maybe Fien so he addresses the RP some(although we hoped for better).  SS we have some internal options and hope Santana can find his way or Polanco can address his fielding issues to become more rounded.  With catcher we just don't have the options moving forward that we need.  I would have liked a move to address who will be behind the plate next year.  If I have to sit through more games with such little confidence at the plate from our catchers it will be tough to handle. 

 

Sitting relatively still at the deadline was fine with me to remain hopeful with our younger talent for next year and beyond.  Hopefully we can find a way to address our catching conundrum before the waiver deadline or a free agent signing (Wieters maybe?) Balls in your court TR

[ND-Fan]

Yes the Twins are in terrible tail spin right now but don't go off the deep end. Look around at their competition they all have gone through terrible tail spin too. Not long ago Houston was thought out of it loosing number gains until they were at 500 hundred. Now they have rebounded and that was before they made dozen moves. I think the Twins fortunes will turn here before all is lost baseball is long season with many ups and downs. I have feeling that offense will turn around here not all these players are going to hit under 200 for ever and when that does pitching will improve too. I also think Ryan is not done yet with this team with additions I willing to bet we get few more pitchers and maybe a catcher yer before this is done. I think they are hoping to get to September when baseball changes and be in the hunt for wildcard spot. September is when teams change with call ups happen and Twins will be very different team because of strength of their farm system we saw it last year the offense just exploded for the Twins. I think this will happen again and defense will improve too to help the pitching. Like I say don't write season off yet. The Twins are in very most difficult part of season with playing Toronto, Yankee's, California, and A's out west look at their history with these teams for last 5 to 10 years they have record of less than 400 ball against these clubs. I don't know the reason for it but its proven fact they just have hard time beating these clubs. They just NY left of these clubs until next month with Angels. The Twins I think will hang around this 500 and hope they get their winning streak to happen that's baseball. Game of streaks both losses and wins hopefully wins come soon.

[Kwak]

Let me see...Ryan ponders, "Good thing I saved almost all of my prospects--especially the 'top' ones."  "The bullpen won't be a problem next year because...(?) 1) RPs are easy to get in the off-season  2)they are cheap too 3) next year one of my SS options will 'take charge' and solve that problem and 4) I am positive that one of my back-up catchers can bat a buck-fifty so I can rest Suzuki and get him back to two-fifty!"

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yes the Twins are in terrible tail spin right now but don't go off the deep end. Look around at their competition they all have gone through terrible tail spin too. Not long ago Houston was thought out of it loosing number gains until they were at 500 hundred. Now they have rebounded and that was before they made dozen moves.

Huh?  Houston hasn't been .500 since April 19th.  They haven't been fewer than 7 games above .500 since April either.