Minnesota Twins Talk

Okay - all the talk about rule 5, roster room, trades, free agents made me go to 40 man roster at mlb.com. I wondered why we had so few spaces to fill and who we were keeping on the roster. You might tell me this is the wrong way to look at it, but I am just sharing tonight's response. Here are my questions - Charlie Barnes - do we really think he will be a valuable asset? Why? Randy Dobnak - nice contract, great story, but really? Is he a MLB asset? Smeltzer and Thorpe - aren't they from another era? Are they really still around? Why? Astudillo - I actually like him, but the majority of what I read on TD does not. So are they keepi…

Come one, come all. I would love to hear what you all think Buxton is worth in a contract extension but there’s a catch - no long winded explanations or diving into his injury history. I just want the numbers - length, value, breakdown per year if it’s not even, and any incentives.

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Always fun to read overviews of our Minnesota Twins, especially going into the offseason. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/twins-trade-rumors-offseason-byron-buxton-free-agency.html Better yet to explore (and follow) the comments. you get reactions from those outside of Twins Territory.

Any thoughts that the Twins will spend the minimum and throw these 3 guys in to round out the 2022 SP rotation behind: 1. Joe Ryan 2. Baily Ober 3. Smeltzer? 4. Dobnack? 5. Thorpe?

Long time fan first time poster. In making this offseason blueprint, I sourced ideas from TwinsDaily offseason handbook, MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Savant, Fangraphs, a number of previous offseason blueprints, and leveraged MLB Trade Values for some inspiration. My strategy focuses on reinvest, restructure, and retry. For the reinvest, it means putting the cash to use with the belief that the team can be a contender like it was in 2019 & 2020. But this is not just an eye on 2022, but over the next 5 year window which aligns where we still have core pieces being joined by top prospects. One note is, that the trade price for any top SP was very high, and with the chance…

I saw a very disturbing post saying the A's will be cutting payroll and aiming for a $50M budget. That means everyone is available. Could be a great way to rebuild the rotation by dismantling theirs. Chapman & Olson would be great to acquire as well. But the main objective should be pitching, pitching, and more pitching. I would not have any issues trading prospects (lottery tickets) for proven talent.

I was struck with the record of our front office in the FA market. I know we need help, but here is who they have brought in (Maeda was trade so he does not count). Michael Pineda three years 22 - 13 (that used to be a one year stat for pitchers like Warren Spahn and Marichal) 3.80 era, 53 games. 4.2 WAR (that amounts to `1.4 per year) Wins above average -0.2. Win probability added 0.6 last year. This was a good signing even though we have had to wait for periods on the inactive or injury list. He is a B signing. Jake Odorizzi three years 22 - 18 with a 4.11 era. 1.28 whip. 4.4 WAR (1.47 per year). His stats are buoyed by one good year - his win proba…

The Twins need starting pitchers, I know it, your family knows it -- dogs know it. And now we have some predicted contracts for the free agent market, thanks to the MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 list. This poll includes all of the 3+ year predicted contracts for free agent starting pitchers (with the exception of Scherzer -- sorry. that ain't happening!). Which one of these contracts would you most like the Twins to sign, and why? Do you think you're getting the best pitcher in the group, or rather the best value?

I'm a big advocate of making trades instead of FA for filling out our roster for many reasons. #1 It upgrades our 40 man roster- For example we can replace 2 lower valued players with 1 higher. #2 It frees up space on our 40 man roster, so don't lose needed undeveloped prospects.- This corresponds with #1, if you trade away 2 or more players and get 1 in return. It's simple math reduction, we free up more free space so you can have more flexibility to keep more needed undeveloped prospects and not lose them through waivers. #3 It helps to eliminates nonessential and redundant players for players where we need depth. #4 It helps to to keep the salary …

The Twins should commit to retooling or rebuilding. That depends on ownership and Byron Buxton. If Buxton signs an extension with the Twins, the competitive window is still open if the Twins avoid the middle ground between retooling and rebuilding. With Covid in the rearview mirror, it’s feasible that the Twins’ player salary payroll will be commensurate to 2020’s level = $139,491,000 and that only counted Maeda’s base salary and not his incentives. That means the Twins could have $140M player salary payroll plus Buxton’s incentives. That would mean the Twins could afford Buxton, guaranteeing him $19M and still have $53,000,000 to spend on 1 shortstop, 3 starting pi…

Mill's Off-season Blueprint - Part One - Cleaning House Mill's Off-season Blueprint - Part Two - Adding Arms Feedback encouraged!

Will start with pitching; Trade for Marquez, FA Gray, FA Cobb, Ober, Ryan, FA McHugh, FA Knebel, Alcala, Theilbar, Minaya, Dobnak, Moran, Duran. Releasing Rogers and Duffy, not resigning Pineda, trying to turnover pitching after poor results last year. I see Duran in BP given injury history. Position players; Garver, Rortvedt, Kirilloff, Polanco, FA Story, Arraez, Donaldson, Kepler, Buxton, Larnach, Miranda, Rooker, Gordon. Trading Sano and Jeffers. 128.70M spent, allows ability to throw in a few million in Sano trade. Lineup could be Polanco, Story, Donaldson, Buxton, Arraez, Garver, Kepler, Kirilloff, and Larnach.

Twenty year anniversary of a historic date in Twins history. https://collection.baseballhall.org/PASTIME/letter-jim-pohlad-minnesota-twins-employees-2001-november-09 Every now and again, and especially when I read praise of the Pohlad family, I google this sucker and have a blast reminding myself of this gem of a document. To my knowledge it's a one-of-a-kind document, at least in modern sports history - an owner signing the death warrant of their own franchise. They weren't planning on selling the team or moving the team - they were planning on taking the team out behind the woodshed and shooting it in the head. Even Montreal Expos fans can't claim an owner tha…

ESPN reported "Gil Hodges, Roger Maris, Minnie Miñoso, Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, Jim Kaat, Tony Oliva, Billy Pierce and Maury Wills also are on the Golden Days Era with former Pittsburgh manager Danny Murtaugh. This is fascinating because I really like all these players and would have no issue with any of them being elected. Jim Kaat and Tony Oliva have special connection to the Twins, but each of them has a fascinating resume. Dick Allen was imposing, a legend, but also in conflict with ownership and very outspoken. Both were dangerous in the more racist era he played in. He played 15 years for five teams which is a reflection of his ability and the short leash of …

This is interesting. Certainly a big name - I'm not sure what to think at this point.

Okay - David Ortiz leads the pack - will he be elected? Do steroids tarnish him and if not will Alex Rodriguez get in and if he gets in will Bonds and Clemens get in? Stay tuned. I have to feel that after getting Martinez in as a DH there are really no other barriers for the form Twin and standout Red Sox to be elected. He is by far the greatest of DHs. Ask the Red Sox fan who they would want to bat in a crucial moment on the big stage - WS, playoffs... Now looking down the list I looked at Bleacher Report and they had the one and done list, many of which I agree with. But on that list was Morneau and Joe Nathan and Pierzynski! Do you agree? They are not even…

After reading through the awesome community blueprint article and the various plans linked within, I wanted to take my own shot at the Twins offseason plan while taking a slightly different approach than most others. Similar to the Dramatic Roster Upheaval scenario proposed by @Nick Nelson, "we're trying to depict what it might look like if the organization says, 'We still want to compete, we still want to spend, but the current mix just isn't working.' It will involve keeping some core pieces in place, but unloading large or expiring contracts and charting a new, dramatically different course for the franchise". With that being said, I went into things with three pa…

John Gant cleared waivers and elected free agency when the Twins attempted to outright him to the minor leagues, off the 40-man roster. (Gant had the right to elect free agency if outrighted, due to having 5+ years of MLB service time.) Gant had been projected by MLB Trade Rumors to earn $3.7 million in his final turn of arbitration this winter; apparently no team wanted to commit to that right now. He made $2.1 million in 2021. Would you like to see Gant back with the Twins at a reduced price? And if so, which role would you like to see him in, starting or relief?

The paring down continues ... this was one that maybe could have gone either way, so I'm not exactly surprised or, really anything ... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/twins-decline-mutual-option-on-alex-colome.html

Yes, I know, the Twins and their postseason woes. It seems like an eternity ago when they last won a postseason game: I know better than most, as I was living what feels like a separate life, sitting in (then) Edison Field, watching the Red Sox battle the Angels as the Twins lost their first postseason game of the series a few thousand miles away, starting the postseason tailspin that continues through to this day. But... we have seen many postseasons in the past 20 years, even if their ending was always premature and usually brutal. On top of that, we've been relatively lucky to not watch a bunch of mediocre baseball during the regular season, either. I was thinking…

So I attempted a blog, had to pause, came back the next day to finish and submit. Nowhere to be found. So I'm going to do an abridged and slightly edited version. If the original suddenly shows up, then I beg forgiveness, lol. My 2022 plan is based on fixing the starting staff, PERIOD, while addressing a few important but secondary concerns. I do believe the FO/ownership wants to re-tool and be competitive. I believe that lost revenue is just that, as stated by ownership. I also believe that with butts back in the seats, ownership trusts and believes in their FO. And the FO has stated they expect payroll to be about where it has been the past few seasons. This means…

The Twins have a very interesting outfield core. On paper, they probably have one of the deepest groups of outfielders in the league. But, looking at this season the Twins used 11 different outfielders to combine for 0.1 bWAR combined. That ranked 13th in the entire league. Obviously a disappointing season all around, but especially when it comes to outfield production that was supposed to be so good. Now there's a lot of questions to be answered this offseason when it comes to who should be starting in the outfield, contract extensions, and prospects. The number one question that needs to be answered in the outfield is Max Kepler. He had an outstanding 2019 season …

My plan for 2022 is about building toward 2023 and beyond. I just don’t think this team can get back to contention in one offseason, given the extensive (and very expensive) holes on the roster. A lot of the prospects that I’m hoping will be part of the future had lost or limited seasons in 2021 so I want to hit the reset button for those guys and I want to give extended chances to players who need to make good or else. All that means is that I’m going to make a few splashy moves, but I’m also leaving some flexibility for this season and beyond. I’m signing or extending four guys to multi year contracts, signing three guys to one year deals, offering arbitration to seven …

This year I see a gaping hole at closer. Even if you want to bring back Colume, I'd wouldn't trust him at closing until he could prove to me that he can. Thinking about what my blueprint might look like. I have to admit that I don't really know who my closer would be. So I'm here again to ask for help from my TD family. Who do you think should be our closer? Should we go in-house? or which pitchers are available via FA or trade with a willing team? Maybe he has a track record or one that is ready to take the next step? Please give your suggestions and why.

I'd appreciate your feedback on my plan for a 2022 Twins roster. I utilized the "Even" budget allotment and came out at $131m Biggest moves: Buxton signed for 6years/$108m Chris Taylor signed 2 years/$24m Kepler traded to Oakland for Sean Manaea and A.J. Puk Rodon signed 4 years/$72m Pineda signed 1 year/$8m

Here is my armchair GM plan for the Twins. Not sure how probable it is, but I think it is at least plausible. In the Rotation: we sign Stromen for the suggested $20 million a year for four or five years. I also bring back Pineda for $10 mil for a year or two. I put Dobnak in there as well, as I think he can be better than last year. He'll have a short leash, and we have plenty of other young options in the minors that can come get a tryout as needed or desired. Ober and Ryan round it out. Bullpen: bring in Knebel for $5 mil and Yimi Garcia for $2 mil, bring back Manaya, and give Moran a full time shot. Rogers is hopefully healthy and closes. Hitters:…

David Popkins... We know little right now, but we'll certainly do some digging. The Dodgers definitely have a strong development system for hitters. Also, both Jeremy Zoll and Alex Hassan came from the Dodgers organization.

Great to see Eddie Rosario come through with a big hit for the Braves yesterday and be with a team capable of actually winning a playoff series. Letting him go along with blowing up the pitching staff has the Twins where they are. I can hear the chuckles now; fine. There was something about Rosario in left, Buxton (when available) in center and Kepler in right that just seemed to work. Now the outfield is the result of throwing darts with players names at an outfield on the wall.

EXAMINING MISFORTUNES I recently revisited some of the depressing statistics regarding Minnesota big four sports teams' futility over the past 30 years. A couple of the numbers jumped out at me. Namely, when accounting for league sizes, etc. the probability on any given year of no MN sports team winning a championship since the 1991 WS, is approximately 87%. But the probability of no MN big four sports team even *appearing * in a championship game during that time is substantially lower, approximately 0.91%. That's before accounting for relatively large media market size (ironically among the big four sports the smallest media market is Green Bay). Looking…