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2017 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects


Ted Schwerzler

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With the 2016 regular season in the books, the Arizona Fall League underway, and the Major League Baseball season barreling towards the World Series, it's time to take a look at what's to come for the Minnesota Twins. The last prospect update here at Off The Baggy was the 2016 Midseason Top 15 (you can find that here).

 

As 2017 gets underway for the Twins, Derek Falvey will be tasked with getting the organization back on track. A large group of youth has already graduated from prospect status, but it's the young talent that the Twins will have to build their turnaround on. Despite no longer being a top five farm system, there's plenty of talent on the way. With that out of the way, let's get into it.

 

15. Lewis Thorpe SP

 

The Aussie starter remains one of the most intriguing arms in the Twins system. He has the stuff to be a capable middle of the rotation arm, but injuries have derailed his development. Still just 20 years old, Thorpe hasn't seen live actions since 2014 with Low-A Cedar Rapids. He was supposed to be back on the mound post Tommy John this year, but never could get healthy. 2016 remains a pivotal campaign for him. When right, he's a top 10 prospect for Minnesota.

 

14. Jake Reed RP

 

I really thought Reed would debut with Minnesota in 2016. Unfortunately a slow start derailed that opportunity, but he did finish strong with a promotion to Triple-A Rochester. He's one of Minnesota's hard throwing relief options, and there's real reason to believe he could push for an early big league opportunity in 2017. Reed has strikeout stuff, and his movement is the real deal.

 

13. Travis Blankenhorn 3B

 

A third round pick in 2015, Blankenhorn is already at Low-A Cedar Rapids. Just 20 years old and taken out of high school, he really started coming into his own last season. After tearing it up for Elizabethton, Blankenhorn had a solid .774 OPS in 25 games for the Kernels. He's got pop in his bat, and should continue to swing his way up the Twins system.

 

12. Nick Burdi RP

 

Like Thorpe, Burdi lost some really significant development time in 2016. He was injured down in Fort Myers during spring training in a fluke accident, and then couldn't get himself healthy enough to pitch with other injuries throughout the year. When he's right, his stuff reaches triple-digits, and penciling him in as a future closer makes a ton of sense. If Burdi can prove he's healthy, and hone in his command a bit, he should join the Twins quickly in 2017.

 

11. Wander Javier SS

 

Speculation and projection remains the key to Javier and his ranking. The Twins spent a boatload on the international free agent out of the Dominican. He's just 17 and played only nine games in the Dominican Summer League during 2016 due to injury. His ceiling is as high as anyone on this list, and if everything breaks right, he could be a star. Javier should be stateside for 2017 and seeing how he does in the lower rookie levels is something to monitor in the year ahead.

 

10. Daniel Palka OF

 

Voted by many publications as the Twins minor league hitter of the year, Palka came to the organization in the Chris Herrmann trade. He hits for ridiculous power and was one of the top home run producers in both the Southern and International Leagues this season. He's going to swing and miss plenty, but from a bat perspective, you might not find a better power tool in other organizations.

 

9. Adam Brett Walker OF

The only reason that Palka's power tool isn't the most impressive among Twins prospects is because Walker exists. Once again this season, Walker made a mockery of pitches that he sent over the fence. His game and raw power are easily 80 grade, and while that remains his greatest asset, he's continued to hold his own while moving up to Triple-A. The swing and miss tendency is real, and his arm isn't good enough to be an every day corner outfielder, but he should be considered as an extra off the bench for the Twins sooner rather than later.

 

8. Kohl Stewart SP

 

If there's a prospect I'm more down on than anyone else for the Twins, it's Stewart. After being selected 4th overall in 2013, he's consistently taken steps backwards. A consensus top 40 prospect in all of baseball prior to 2015, he's fallen off of nearly every top 100 list. Stewart is still young at just 22 and already pitching at Double-A. Unfortunately, he has shown very little ability to strike anyone out, his command has progressively gotten worse, and he's now strung together multiple seasons of injury concerns. The upside remains apparent, but Stewart's stock has plummeted. He's got time to turn the tables, and that taking place would be huge.

 

7. Felix Jorge SP

 

Creating prospect lists requires players to be evaluated on their own accord. Jorge's ceiling isn't as high as some of the other names on this list, but his floor should also be much more projectable. He looks the part of a mid-to-back-end starter, and he's up to Double-A at 22 years old. Jorge's stuff is never going to overpower hitters, but he doesn't walk anyone, and he limits damage. If he continues his current path, he could be up at Triple-A Rochester by the end of the 2017 season.

 

6. Adalberto Mejia SP

 

Acquired from the Giants in trading Eduardo Nunez, Mejia is about as good of a return as the Twins could have gotten. He's a top 100 prospect according to Baseball Prospectus, and he absolutely should be capable of being a big league starter. His strikeout numbers aren't going to blow anyone away, but he limits damage by not allowing free passes. Coming into the year, Mejia will be one of the first guys called upon to slide into the Twins starting rotation.

 

5. Fernando Romero SP

 

21 years old and already mastering High-A Fort Myers, 2016 was an exciting year for Romero. Coming off a missed 2015 due to Tommy John surgery, Romero looked as good as ever. Making 16 starts across Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers, his 1.89 ERA dazzled. He has strikeout stuff, and this season, took a big step forward in limiting walks as well. If Romero flashed what we should expect from him going forward, he's going to be a top of the rotation arm, and could be one of Minnesota's best kept secrets.

 

4. Tyler Jay SP

 

Ranking Tyler Jay is somewhat difficult, because the jury is still out on what he becomes. Operating solely as a reliever in college, he transitioned to a starter full time for Minnesota. His numbers were solid at High-A Fort Myers, but he got lit up pitching for Double-A Chattanooga. He has strikeout stuff, but has to scale it back some when starting. 2017 will be big for the former Illinois pitcher as it will likely go a long ways in determining the Twins future plans for him. If Jay ends up being a reliever, he could be a very, very good one. That said, even the most elite reliever isn't something you're hoping for with the 6th overall draft pick.

 

3. Nick Gordon SS

 

If there's someone you should be watching in the Arizona Fall League, it's Gordon. He was drafted as a shortstop and expected to stick because of his glove. Thus far, the leather has gotten worse, and it was especially bad in 2016. He made 26 errors for Fort Myers this season, and there's some real doubts now that he sticks at the premium position. The bat has begun to come around, and his .721 OPS was a career best, but the 20 year old will need to continue to grow as a whole if he's going to be an asset up the middle for Minnesota.

 

2. Alex Kirilloff OF

 

This time in 2017, Kirilloff has a chance to be the Twins top prospect, and he could go a long ways to being one of the best in baseball with another strong year. Playing for Elizabethton after getting drafted, Kirilloff's bat just destroyed the lague. He ended with a .794 OPS, but hovered around a .340 average for most of the year. He launched seven homers, and the power, both gap and home run, was as real as it was suggested. He's a bat first prospect, and continuing to hit will be his ticket to advancing. After the initial showing though, betting against him would seem foolish.

 

1. Stephen Gonsalves SP

 

After Jose Berrios, Gonsalves has quickly emerged as the Twins most important pitching prospect. Pairing him in the big league rotation with other young arms is a must. He dominated the Florida State League across 11 starts, and then was even better for Double-A Chattanooga. Gonsalves is a lefty with strikeout stuff, and is he can continue to hone is his command, he has a very high ceiling. Just 22 years old, he could get to the big leagues in 2017, and making himself a fixture for plenty of years to come seems like a good bet.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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I'm guessing Gonsalves, Stewart, and Jay have all passed Berrios up as the Twins most important starting pitching prospect.

 

Being that Berrios is already at the big league level, he needs to contribute there. Gonsalves needs to follow suit, and Jay moving to relief would hurt MN greatly.

 

Getting something of value at the MLB level out of Stewart remains a must as well.

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Stewart, to me, seems like someone who's stuff could play up better with some of the training techniques that Falvey is potentially bringing from Cleveland. He is still very young (5 years younger than Alex Meyer by the way, and Stewart turned 22 about 1 month ago) and has only been a full time pitcher since he was drafted with the Twins. I think starting the year repeating at AA for him, with possibly some new and improved instruction, could really help with his development. Plus, even while he wasn't striking many out, at the very least the contact he gave up was soft contact.

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Stewart, to me, seems like someone who's stuff could play up better with some of the training techniques that Falvey is potentially bringing from Cleveland. He is still very young (5 years younger than Alex Meyer by the way, and Stewart turned 22 about 1 month ago) and has only been a full time pitcher since he was drafted with the Twins. I think starting the year repeating at AA for him, with possibly some new and improved instruction, could really help with his development. Plus, even while he wasn't striking many out, at the very least the contact he gave up was soft contact.

 

Unless he dominates, I'd give him the full season in AA. There's absolutely no rush, and it'd be wise not to rush him (in my opinion). He doesn't even have to be added to the 40 man roster until after 2017, and he's already at AA. He can develop at AA in 2017, and then he's got three option years, so even starting in 2018, there's no rush. He's too talented and they need to do what's best for him (which in turn is what's best for him), and I think that's not pushing too quickly.

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If Berrios was still a "prospect" he'd certainly still be the Twins #1 prospect.. I assume Ted would agree?

 

Absolutely. I expect Gonsalves to be good, but he's well off the level that Berrios should be expected.

 

Also, on that note, I believe J.T. Chargois retained his rookie status for 2017. I left him off due to the amount of MLB time he had, but he's a top 7 prospect for me if I would've included him.

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Where would you have listed Engelb Vielma? Is he #16 for you? He is #16 in MLB.com. I feel like his glove/defense can play in the majors now, and personally I would have listed him higher on the list, over at least Walker/Palka/Reed for different reasons. I do still love Lewis Thorpe, but hopefully he can come back healthy at some point too.

Also, Ben Rortvedt. He is #7 on the Twins prospect list on mlb.com. He certainly has as much or more potential as any catcher currently in the system, even if he is a long ways off (kind of like Kiriloff in that sense.) Where would he rank in your top 20?

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Where would you have listed Engelb Vielma? Is he #16 for you? He is #16 in MLB.com. I feel like his glove/defense can play in the majors now, and personally I would have listed him higher on the list, over at least Walker/Palka/Reed for different reasons. I do still love Lewis Thorpe, but hopefully he can come back healthy at some point too.

Also, Ben Rortvedt. He is #7 on the Twins prospect list on mlb.com. He certainly has as much or more potential as any catcher currently in the system, even if he is a long ways off (kind of like Kiriloff in that sense.) Where would he rank in your top 20?

 

As far as Vielma, I still wonder if his bat can play at the big league level. His glove absolutely can, but one dimensional players are always tough to rank (like Walker and Palka). He's probably 16 for me though.

 

As far as Rortvedt, I think he's got a lot of upside, but he's also a long ways off. I think MLB Pipeline has him overvalued, but would think the Twins really believe in him. Right around 20 is where I'd feel comfortable.

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I understand bringing some pitchers along slowly if that is what's best for them.

However, based on the SO/9 and WHIPs that Gonsalves and Romero are posting I would really like to see each of them pushed up a level to start 2017.

 

Gonsalves to AAA, Romero to AA. See what they can do.

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Talk About Consistency and Why I Think He has a Chance

 http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/woba/ 

 

wOBA Rules of Thumb (based on Fangraph Key)
Rating wOBA
Excellent .400
Great .370
Above Average .340
Average .320
Below Average .310
Poor .300
Awful .290

 

Despite #9 Walker's inability to make contact - He has been consistent throughout the years with his :

Rookie:  .357 w/OBA

Low A:  .373 w/OBA

High A:  .340 w/OBA

AA:       .367 w/OBA

AAA:   .347 w/OBA

 

His ISO numbers grade out even better.  His worst year was even above average in this category.  Although I understand why people think the MLB will eat him up - His consistency tells me otherwise.  Hope the Twins give him a meaningful chance in 2017.  He has yet to drop below "Average in any meaningful statistical category other than SO.  Even his BB% is slightly above Average.  Hope he doesn't get burried in AAA all of next year again.

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