Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account
  • entries
    891
  • comments
    3,675
  • views
    1,591,665

The Twins $55 Million Dollar Question

Ted Schwerzler

Entry posted by Ted Schwerzler ·

3,163 views

 Share

Twins Video

The calendar has already passed halfway through June and the 2015 Major League Baseball season is starting to take shape. Nearing the halfway point of the season, teams are starting to categorize themselves as contenders or pretenders. Right now, the Twins land somewhere in the middle, and while they may not be buyers at the trade deadline, they can improve from within. The biggest question though, is what they do with their $55 million dollar man.

Over the winter, the Twins sought to address their lackluster starting pitching. A season ago, the Twins 4.57 team ERA ranked 29, or second to last, in all of Major League Baseball. Generally out of games before they started, Minnesota knew that pitching needed to start giving their offense a chance. In making a splash, the club signed free agent Ervin Santana.

After spending a season with the Atlanta Braves in the National League, Santana was ready to return home to the American League. Having pitched the season before in the AL Central, the Twins were a relative comfort zone for the free agent. His career 4.48 ERA is indicative of a pitcher that can be a difference maker, but someone who still has some questions to answer. For the Twins though, he's a legitimate number two that should provide plenty of value.

Now coming to the end of a 50 game suspension due to performance-enhancing drug use, Santana is nearing the day that he can rejoin the fold. After the Twins jettisoned Jordan Schafer, the club has an open 40 man roster spot for their high dollar pitcher. However, how does the ninth best pitching team in the American League (3.84 team ERA) accommodate him?

It's probably safe to consider both Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson locks to stay in the rotation. Despite Hughes' struggles in 2015, he's still seen as the staff ace. Hughes 4.79 ERA is dented by his inability to control the longball this season. After giving up just 16 home runs all of last season, he's allowed 15 through June 19.

Gibson has been one of the early season bright spots. Despite a tough outing his last time out, the Twins former first rounder owns a 3.33 ERA and has been one of the American League's best pitchers in the early going. His strikeout and walk numbers virtually match his career lines, and despite his 4.41 FIP (fielding independent pitching), he should be counted on to keep his roll going.

Owning the middle ground is rookie Trevor May. A 4.26 ERA probably doesn't do justice to just how good May has looked at times. Despite a few tougher starts, he's looked every bit a top of the rotation type. His 7.7 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 are both great, and his 3.16 FIP suggests he should only continue to improve. Whether or not the Twins see him as locked in, the reality is that he should be.

Arguably the toughest to dissect of the group is Mike Pelfrey. Going from a rotation snub, to the bullpen, and back into the rotation, Pelfrey has been the club's best pitcher this season. It's hard to include him as a lock because he seems to make us continually hold our breath, yet suggesting he's middle of the road with his current numbers is also not doing him justice. A 2.97 ERA is going to be tough to sustain while striking out right around four batters a game, but the Twins absolutely have to ride the wave until it crashes.

That leaves recently reinstated starter Tommy Milone. Of the group, Milone is probably the least likely to have success in the bullpen. A soft tossing lefty, Milone absolutely dominated Triple-A after being sent down earlier this year. In his three starts since rejoining the big league club, Milone owns a 2.37 ERA and has allowed opposing hitters just a .236 batting average against him.

In short, the question becomes, where does Ervin Santana fit?

There's absolutely no doubt that the Twins need to find a place for him in their rotation. It's also a great thing that we are having to ask this question, rather than be able to point to three different pitchers that don't belong.

Santana is making the first of what will be three starts for Triple-A Rochester on Saturday. Over the course of the next week and a half, Minnesota will be evaluating their staff as a whole, and trying to answer the big question.

While I don't envy the decision makers in this situation, the reality is that as a whole, the Twins staff still is a bit more quantity than quality. Santana should boost the quality aspect, and the Twins will know the have depth when they need it. I'd look at inserting Santana in the place of Milone, knowing that if and when Pelfrey blows up, you have an option you can immediately turn to.

Regardless of what happens, this is a position the Twins have not found themselves in for at least the past four seasons. Quality pitching had become a thing of the past, but this club, under Paul Molitor and Neil Allen, it turning over a welcomed new leaf.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

 Share

18 Comments

Recommended Comments

BoomBoom

Trade Santana to Phillies along with a marginal top prospect (Duffy; or Jones; or Bard) and get Hamels.  You can then use Hamels in the playoffs (thinking big) and would only increase your budget slightly.

Link to comment
jorgenswest

It is unreasonable to expect number 2 performance from Santana. Going back 5 years, he has one season with the Royals where he performed at that level. That performance was aided by a fantastic defense.

 

He is projected for an ERA of 4.31 by steamer. He had an ERA+ of 93 last year. A number 4 starter this year is a much more reasonable expectation. The Twins certainly have not missed him in the first half. His starts have likely gone to May, Milone or Pelfrey all of whom are outperforming his projection. In fact it is likely that the Twins have benefitted in the win column due to his absence.

Link to comment
Ted Schwerzler
  On 6/19/2015 at 2:14 PM, jorgenswest said:
It is unreasonable to expect number 2 performance from Santana. Going back 5 years, he has one season with the Royals where he performed at that level. That performance was aided by a fantastic defense.

He is projected for an ERA of 4.31 by steamer. He had an ERA+ of 93 last year. A number 4 starter this year is a much more reasonable expectation. The Twins certainly have not missed him in the first half. His starts have likely gone to May, Milone or Pelfrey all of whom are outperforming his projection. In fact it is likely that the Twins have benefitted in the win column due to his absence.

 

I'd argue that him being out of the rotation as a positive is extrapolating a bit far. It has however aides the Twins development of depth. I too have the same questions however. Click the link where I talk about questions to answer. Santana can be an asset, but expecting him to be a workhorse/ace type seems lofty.

Link to comment
jorgenswest

Santana was essentially league average from ages 27-31. The outlook for that group isn't encouraging from ages 32-35.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6349-what-can-the-twins-expect-from-santana-and-nolasco/

 

With decline expected every year, this year was his best chance of being a significant help and pitching near league average. He let his team down and forfeited half of that year. Luckily for the Twins, other pitchers stepped up. They don't deserve to lose their spot. That sends a bad message to the club house and the team.

Link to comment
Brandon

This is the type of rotation the Twins strive to build for competing.  5 starters who are league average where 1 or 2 can step up with margin of error or injury.  also through 180 to 200 innings.  The bullpen is where they usually strive for the lower cost better than average production to bring the team era down from average to better than average.  but now they are getting better than league average pitching from their rotation hence the winning record. 

Link to comment
Dantes929

"There's absolutely no doubt that the Twins need to find a place for him in their rotation. It's also a great thing that we are having to ask this question, rather than be able to point to three different pitchers that don't belong."   I have plenty of doubt.    Hughes has a higher ERA than Santana's career ERA, May's is very close and the other 3 are far outperforming Santana's career ERA.     Put Santana in the pen and find the spot in the rotation when one of them falters or gets hurt.   And get rid of Nolasco.

Link to comment
JustinCB

"owns a 3.33 ERA..... and despite his 4.41 FIP (fielding independent pitching), he should be counted on to keep his roll going"

 

Why's that, exactly?  Except Trevor May improves because he's under performing his FIP?  Sounds like cherry picking a bit to me.

Link to comment
Ted Schwerzler
  On 6/19/2015 at 7:33 PM, JustinCB said:
"owns a 3.33 ERA..... and despite his 4.41 FIP (fielding independent pitching), he should be counted on to keep his roll going"

 

Why's that, exactly?  Except Trevor May improves because he's under performing his FIP?  Sounds like cherry picking a bit to me.

 

Because the defense behind him has only gotten better. His ERA is where it is DESPITE the defense the Twins had behind him early on. Remove Santana, insert Rosario, Hicks, and Buxton, the defense as a whole should help him even more so.

Link to comment
Platoon

If the choice becomes Pelfrey of Milone to the pen, it should be Pelfrey. Not Becasue he deserves it, just because it's a better fit. Then ride Milone till or if he blows up. And I don't even really like Milone, it's just that he is likely most effective as a starter.

Link to comment
JustinCB
  On 6/19/2015 at 7:40 PM, Off The Baggy said:
Because the defense behind him has only gotten better. His ERA is where it is DESPITE the defense the Twins had behind him early on. Remove Santana, insert Rosario, Hicks, and Buxton, the defense as a whole should help him even more so.

 

His era is where it is BECAUSE of the defense behind him. That's the point of FIP - fielding INDEPENDENT pitching. Taking the defense out. Its saying he's benefitted by things outside his control by more than a full run already. It makes no sense to claim one pitcher on the same staff will magically start over performing his FIP and others won't.

Link to comment
twinssouth

As I said in a prior post, you need to add worthless Nolasco to the equation. When he's back from rehab, you have 2 new pitchers to deal with. I know what I'd do, dump him in a New York minute.

Link to comment
Ted Schwerzler
  On 6/20/2015 at 4:16 PM, twinssouth said:
As I said in a prior post, you need to add worthless Nolasco to the equation. When he's back from rehab, you have 2 new pitchers to deal with. I know what I'd do, dump him in a New York minute.

 

Prior to his ankle injury, he was actually pitching well.

Link to comment
nater79a

 

  On 6/20/2015 at 4:32 PM, Off The Baggy said:

Prior to his ankle injury, he was actually pitching well.

 

Yes, Nolasco was pitching better than people give him credit for. Since he's owed $30 mil over the next 2 1/2 years, he's not going anywhere.

Link to comment
Guest
Add a comment...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
×
  • Create New...