Welcome Harrison, great job. I share your optimism. I’m less optimistic about Gallo, we haven’t been having a lot of success with fixing NYYs. But I’m glad we have him. Because Kiriloff started swinging only in the beginning of January. I’m doubtful that he’ll be ready after spring training 

Love it! 

Funny......goal for Gallo:  "maintain a 200 average"

Funny......but......OUCH!

I don't think Correa has another GG season in him, but the rest is fair and whould take a solid season from each of these players, but is attainable.🤞

23 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Welcome Harrison, great job. I share your optimism. I’m less optimistic about Gallo, we haven’t been having a lot of success with fixing NYYs. But I’m glad we have him. Because Kiriloff started swinging only in the beginning of January. I’m doubtful that he’ll be ready after spring training 

Thank you for the feedback! I agree with you on Kirilloff, but I think there is still a lot of potential there with him, even if he isn't to return right away.

7 hours ago, miracleb said:

Love it! 

Funny......goal for Gallo:  "maintain a 200 average"

Funny......but......OUCH!

It is pretty funny! His OPS should still be high, meaning he will hit many extra base hits. I am hoping to see a small rise in the average department since the shift is banned though, which ultimately means more singles. Thanks for the support!

6 hours ago, Minny505 said:

I don't think Correa has another GG season in him, but the rest is fair and whould take a solid season from each of these players, but is attainable.🤞

I wouldn't put it past him. I think the Gold Glove award as a whole is a bit iffy, as we saw some illegitimate finalists last year. All I am saying is I hope for him to continue his stellar defense, especially without an option like Royce to back him up the first half of the year.

34 minutes ago, Harrison Smith said:

Thank you for the feedback! I agree with you on Kirilloff, but I think there is still a lot of potential there with him, even if he isn't to return right away.

I agree with you about Kiriloff, I wasn't knocking Kiriloff but stating one good thing about Gallo is that we have him as back up LH 1B ready if Kiriloff isn't quite ready to have a go at it right away.

Kepler would have been a nice one to predict.  

Great first blog post, Harrison. I'd call it impressively optimistic. Bless your heart, but prepare to look back in October with more than a few sighs. I don't think even two of these will come to fruition. Buxton's at a point now where all injuries are cumulative. Top teams passed on signing Correa for a reason. Kirilloff has already admitted that he's feeling pain again in his swing. Lewis is going to have to find his groove after two ACL surgeries. Durability is required to meet these goals, and that durability is probably out of reach. But here's hoping that the stars align.

1. The ball that MLB manufactures dictates the baseline numbers for the league, so hoping for individual OPS or AVG numbers is a fool's errand until we see what shape of game the league wants everyone to play.  Remember, AL batting average last year was only .243.  I liked the places where the prediction was based on OPS+ rather than absolute numbers.

2.  It's an odd year so Gallo is going to be great, that one's in the bag.  🤣   Actually I think his fielding will be fine where ever he's allowed to play, and his season will come down to making the contact often enough to keep pitchers out of the strike zone so he can keep getting on base.

3. I'm not too concerned about the performance of most of our vets, so I measure the success for a lot of these guys in plate appearances as much as anything. If Buxton can take the field he'll be one of our top players. If Correa is out there he's going to put up decent numbers. I want Polanco to return as Polanco and play games. Kepler is the only one with questions and there's a line of replacements out the door in the event he doesn't deliver. 

4. Gordon needs to show if he's the full time player who hit so well in August or the full time player who fell off so badly in Sept and Oct. And based on his past fielding work and the other options available, he's not really seen as an infielder any more so the hitting standards are raised if he's to be graded as an OF. Austin Martin is going to be auditioning for his job in AA and AA this summer, so he's got to be August Nick rather than September Nick.

4. There's a queue of youngsters that need to prove they belong. Miranda is first, but Larnach and Kirrilof are both right there in needing to show they can stay on the field and pull their weight, and local boy Matt Wallner is just across the river working on his defense and swinging hard in the event Kepler doesn't start hitting grounders through the infield. 

as goals these are all reasonable. remember, he's not saying "this is what these guys will do" or even "this is was I expect from each player".

This is "what's an attainable goal for each player" and none of them are outrageous. Some do require seeing things we haven't gotten recently (if ever), But if Buxton plays 120 games, there's little reason to think he can't have an OPS of .800 and hit 30 dingers. Miranda showed he could hit at that level; throw out that horrific start in May and he's right there last season. That's a good goal to aim for. I think it's important to look at each of these individually, not as a set, because each player's goal is independent of each other. Alex Kirilloff being healthy and hitting without pain has nothing to do with Byron Buxton's knee not barking at him.

Nick Gordon literally hit what he was projected to be able to hit when he was drafted out of high school.  Many were saying he could be a .270 Ave with 10-15 HR and 10-15 SB.  of course, that projection was during a more offensive time.  so his hitting that mark now is a higher mark then what he was projected.  

League Average OPS……what is that typically?

My parallel Goals:

Gordon plays 80 games in LF & 50 games in CF against RH pitching and his OPS is .750 plus & he bats .270 & has 12HR with 38 doubles! Walks once more per week and strikes out once less per week.

Buxton plays 80 games in CF & DH 50 games……….30HR & cuts back on K’s by 20% - stay healthy for playoffs! Try to hit .245 plus (career average)

Miranda hits .275 & has 85 RBI……OPS of .775 plus……play Top 20 defense at 3B, that’s fine in year 1!!

Polanco - stay healthy and get in 135 starts. 22HR with a .270 BA…..back to normal!

Kepler 110 starts in RF - post shift lift BA off .260 and maintain walk %.

Gallo - ditto on Harrison’s goals ….same with Kirilof.

Vazquez needs to be different at Catcher than what we’ve been seeing and hopefully hit his career BA of .274 with 50-60 RBI.

Jeffers needs to mash the 30 odd lefties he’ll start against and play solid defense in his 55 starts.

Correa doesn’t need to win awards - just be what we expect……20HR ……..BA of .275 ……stay in line-up 140 games. Drive in more runs when opportunity presents this year.

On 2/6/2023 at 9:35 AM, LastOnePicked said:

Great first blog post, Harrison. I'd call it impressively optimistic. Bless your heart, but prepare to look back in October with more than a few sighs. I don't think even two of these will come to fruition. Buxton's at a point now where all injuries are cumulative. Top teams passed on signing Correa for a reason. Kirilloff has already admitted that he's feeling pain again in his swing. Lewis is going to have to find his groove after two ACL surgeries. Durability is required to meet these goals, and that durability is probably out of reach. But here's hoping that the stars align.

I think it's completely immature and unrealistic to "prepare for October." Buxton and Correa had some injuries before the Twins August collapse. We were fine. Kirilloff wasn't contributing in any way before August, and we were fine. People are forgetting we were a top team in the league before our injury problems. For Correa, teams did not like his future (6-10 years). Correa  hasn't had any issues with his ankle since the initial surgey in the minors. Just because teams denied him in FA this year, doesn't mean a magic switch will be flipped and Correa will start becoming injury prone this season, he's fine. Buxton can play 100-120 games, especially with Taylor likely relieving him of CF duties more often than not. We also have a new world class trainer which may help the guys stay healthy. I wouldn't be surprised if stars do re-align, and I think its crazy to "prepare for October" this early. Nonetheless, thank you for the feedback and support! 

On 1/30/2023 at 6:25 PM, Doctor Gast said:

Welcome Harrison, great job. I share your optimism. I’m less optimistic about Gallo, we haven’t been having a lot of success with fixing NYYs. But I’m glad we have him. Because Kiriloff started swinging only in the beginning of January. I’m doubtful that he’ll be ready after spring training 

I don't know. I would say we've had decent success working with former NYY players. Sonny Gray, Gio Urshela, Phil Hughes, Michael Pineda, and Jake Cave (albeit, it was only a partial year), I think getting out of the Big Apple has helped some of those players regain some of what got them to the Majors. 

Joey Gallo .......Maintain a .200 average..........

Let's not set our goals too high, eh?

These goals may be a bit aggressive, but I feel like these players have a lot to prove in 2023.

Agressive? I don't see how these goals make for a team in the playoffs, and certainly not a playoff run. Self fulfilling prophecies need to be set to push you if you want to succeed. Correa is getting paid $33,333,333 this year. He will be 28. Perhaps the primest age for an athlete. If he doesn't have the goal of being the MVP this year, especially after all this contract mess and wanting to prove he is the man, there is something wrong. 

1 hour ago, mac098 said:

I don't know. I would say we've had decent success working with former NYY players. Sonny Gray, Gio Urshela, Phil Hughes, Michael Pineda, and Jake Cave (albeit, it was only a partial year), I think getting out of the Big Apple has helped some of those players regain some of what got them to the Majors. 

I'm talking about fixing NYYs problem players that come here specifically Sanchez type. Sanchez was supposed to really turn it around here but he hit worse. Players you mentioned weren't that bad in NY. Sonny Gray was fixed in CIN  before he got here. 

Gallo has been working very closely with Popkin. This will be a good test for Popkin. 

24 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm talking about fixing NYYs problem players that come here specifically Sanchez type. Sanchez was supposed to really turn it around here but he hit worse. Players you mentioned weren't that bad in NY. Sonny Gray was fixed in CIN  before he got here. 

Gallo has been working very closely with Popkin. This will be a good test for Popkin. 

I see what you mean. I thought you were talking about those that struggled or didn't live up to expectations in NY. My bad. Makes sense when you put it that way.

I think these projections are reasonable. Maybe optimistic in the sense that there is the statistical likelihood that there will always be at least one dud among a group as large as 7 players. But taken separately, I think each projections is not unreasonable.

Also, fwiw...if Buxton's OPS is 800, that's going to be a pretty bad year.  His very high ISO is pretty much established at this point.  He needs >825 OPS or we're looking at a really, really low OBP. His OBP last year was disappointing despite the 833 OPS. I would like to see the BB% get to 10%, and the OBP to get >320. But, yeah, health trumps everything with him.

I definitely must look threw bright rose colored glasses.  Each player listed has a solid chance in my view to meet and exceed in many cases these goals.  I don't see any of them being aggressive by any means on an individual per player basis.  Not all will, but I mean Correa is still the same player with the same ankle he has had for the past how many years....Buxton I just feel will put a "healthy" season together at some point...but definitely would love to cut down on the strikeouts.  The Gallo one scares me the most honestly.  Not sure what to expect from him.  Great write up.

Buxton's value is not playing 80 games in CF, it's playing 100-120 games in CF and an occasional DH role.  We keep hearing how great a defender he is and he has shown that skill set but he isn't top 10 in the league guy playing 33% of his games at DH.