14 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Doesn't seem like it was broke when he started 80 of 82 career games in the minors either.  What IS broke and will almost assuredly continue to be broke is the top spot on the rotation.  Can't wait to get to the post-season and be down 4 runs and God knows how many games by the time our best pitcher takes his jacket off.  21 straight here we come.

 

If you want to look at his minor league work check out the fancy 3.99 ERA in 390 IP (less than 5.0 IP per start, and there were only two relief appearances in there to dilute the numbers.)  He's only made 5 appearances in AAA and pitched to a crisp 5.06 ERA in 16 innings, all in 2021.   His best season as a starter was his second pass through high A when he put together a 3.23 ERA in 15 GS and 78 IP, but the team as a whole had a 3.12 ERA that year so it's not like he was anything special.  The fact is he got special when he cut loose and stopped pacing himself. There's no way that he'd be the same guy trying to get through five times as many batters. And the league would have a better book on him if he was trying to throw that much more as well. I'm not certain the book matters when he can rear back and hit 102, but if he can't then the game changes a lot.

Duran was always special, and that is why they traded Escobar for him. Gabriel Maciel and Ernie De La Trinidad were certainly throw ins and nothing special. The hope was always there for Duran. Verlander doesn't, and never did, throw it 100 or more all the time, but he did/does when he wanted to reach back and unleash it. Powereful weapon. To assume that Duran will not become more of a pitcher and less of a thrower as he matures and ages, and he will not explore change or speeds in his performances, even if only as a reliever, is a pretty limiting and demeaning stance. Last year was a successful experiment. He can always be used in the pen. To let a person grow is not breaking him. To impede someones talent for selfish reasons is breaking him.

On 1/26/2023 at 9:05 AM, Alex Boxwell said:

The Johan comps are fair but the argument could be made his early career led to his arm issues and being out of the league at 33-34 years old. That's way to young for a guy that threw and relied on a change up like that. The risk on the volume and intensity of throwing 100+ mph in one outing is also way higher. Even with all the new arm care programs we just don't see power arms last as starters besides your outliers like Verlander and Scherzer.

Many credit the 134 pitch heroic no-hitter and the first and the only Mets no-hitter (I can't really count the bullpen 5 pitcher no hit game last April as a no-hitter, you can if you like) as the beginning of the end. The no-hitter was after several injuries, of which some were not to his arm or shoulder, but knees. This is apples to oranges. Duran is his own man, and it should be his decision. If you don't give him a shot, and he wants to, Duran will find a team that will as soon as he can. The Twins can't control him forever if he doesn't want them to. Besides, all he has to do is say he doesn't want to sign an extension yet, and he probably will be traded like Arraez and Berrios, no matter how good he is.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1206124-johan-santana-no-hitter-why-it-was-mlbs-most-impressive-no-no-in-recent-memory#:~:text=For this one night%2C Santana,complete the no-hit bid.

18 hours ago, Cris E said:

If you want to look at his minor league work check out the fancy 3.99 ERA in 390 IP (less than 5.0 IP per start, and there were only two relief appearances in there to dilute the numbers.)  He's only made 5 appearances in AAA and pitched to a crisp 5.06 ERA in 16 innings, all in 2021.   His best season as a starter was his second pass through high A when he put together a 3.23 ERA in 15 GS and 78 IP, but the team as a whole had a 3.12 ERA that year so it's not like he was anything special.  The fact is he got special when he cut loose and stopped pacing himself. There's no way that he'd be the same guy trying to get through five times as many batters. And the league would have a better book on him if he was trying to throw that much more as well. I'm not certain the book matters when he can rear back and hit 102, but if he can't then the game changes a lot.

He'll got real special when free agency comes and he realizes how much money being a reliever from day one rather than a starter is gonna cost him and he bolts like a fart in the wind.

This is a good topic Nick.  We already have a lights out closer and that's fine with me.  But the prevailing wisdom is that a dominant SP is always worth more than a dominant closer due to the higher number of quality innings delivered.  I don't think the Twins should completely settle on Duran as a closer but it depends what happens with other guys on the team and in the system.  

Alcala is pretty much a bullpen guy now.  What if he explodes this year?  Jorge Lopez has shown he can be a quality closer.  And what about Matt Canterino?  He's also got lights out stuff and due to HIS durability concerns will probably be a bullpen guy going forward and who could also be a lights out closer.  I would probably leave Duran where he is for 2023, but if Lopez returns to form and Alcala impresses the calculation may change on Duran.  By 2024 we should have a good idea about Canterino's health and the quality of his stuff.  Heck, I'm happy to leave Duran as our closer.  But going into 2024 we could be looking at different scenarios depending on which starters were effective in 2023 and determining who is going and who is staying.  Duran's role could stay the same, but it could change as well.

On 1/25/2023 at 2:22 PM, vulturepaj said:

I do believe that we will see Duran in a conventional closer role for years to come and nothing else and that's just fine with me!!

Not in Rocco's Modern Life.

On 1/26/2023 at 11:05 AM, Alex Boxwell said:

The Johan comps are fair but the argument could be made his early career led to his arm issues and being out of the league at 33-34 years old. That's way to young for a guy that threw and relied on a change up like that. The risk on the volume and intensity of throwing 100+ mph in one outing is also way higher. Even with all the new arm care programs we just don't see power arms last as starters besides your outliers like Verlander and Scherzer.

Most of Johan's early years were spent in pen.  There are a multitude of others who would make the argument that his arm took a dump as a result of his 134 pitch no hitter.

No chance he gets moved back to the rotation, he is to valuable to this team that is trying to win now.  He was too good last year, too much of a nuclear option to mess with his development going forward.

Just enjoy that we have one of the 5 nastiest relievers in baseball for years to come, and at a time where they have never been more valuable. 

He should be given the opportunity to become a starter with proper individualized management. Of course it would be an experiment, But if nothing is ventured then nothing is gained. By individualized I mean that if he needs an extra day of rest between starts then he should be able to get it.

It's hard to imagine that the strong arm that he has would be any more susceptible to injury than any other ace. I think that it's only a matter of proper management. Obviously I don't know his medical details, But it's not like he's a pitcher with marginal talent that's keeping him from being a starter or not,

It's up to the front office, trainers and Duran to get on the same page about what's best for his career. If the issue is handled properly then everyone should be happy whether it's decided that he become a starter or not. He has a gift which he should be able to utilize so that he's happy enough with his career to stay with the Twins. He may be an exception to the rule where the front office rarely puts the long term desires of players first. Hopefully he can rise to meet the expectations that he's set for himself. If he believes in himself then the Twins should allow the switch to happen. Then if it doesn't work the Twins can then limit his to role to being a closer for a reason.

On 1/28/2023 at 3:44 PM, h2oface said:

Duran was always special, and that is why they traded Escobar for him. Gabriel Maciel and Ernie De La Trinidad were certainly throw ins and nothing special.

On 1/25/2023 at 2:04 PM, Karbo said:

I would like to see Duran in a more conventional closer role.

This is the most OBVIOUS issue in our bullpen. Baldelli and the FO again looking at numbers instead of looking at the mindset of pitchers and KNOWING what their roll is... Duran should be the closer... period. Then set up the RH setup guy and a LH setup guy .... next in line and so on. Guys knowing their rolls and being ready mentally and physically for the job is completely lacking at this point. WASTING a pretty good bullpen by trying to get smarter than smart. ARGH

On 1/28/2023 at 2:28 AM, dxpavelka said:

Doesn't seem like it was broke when he started 80 of 82 career games in the minors either.  What IS broke and will almost assuredly continue to be broke is the top spot on the rotation.  Can't wait to get to the post-season and be down 4 runs and God knows how many games by the time our best pitcher takes his jacket off.  21 straight here we come.

 

Was it is his 5.06 ERA in AAA last year as a starter with 13 walks in 16 innings that sways you to him being a starter? Only once in his minor league career did he have an ERA below 3.25 and that was in 6 starts in A ball back in 2018. He has never pitched more than 115 innings in a season. So if the Twins wanted to make him a starter this year maybe his innings jump from 83 2/3 to 130ish? that means 25, 5 innings starts, yea.

I would much rather they stretch him out to 100/110 innings this year using him as a fireman type role and if that works maybe next year give him a spot in the rotation.

The question to me is why he's dominant, and then his ability to find another way to be dominant if his current way wouldn't work in the rotation. Was he dominant in the pen because he could just let it rip for 20 or 30 pitches and his stuff was so good nothing else really mattered? If that's the case then you have to worry about him not being dominant as a starter in the minors even though he wasn't throwing a ton of innings per start. Then the question is could he improve his control, pitch sequencing, etc. to improve his numbers as a starter and become the ace we'd hope for.

I don't know the answers to those questions so I don't have a real strong opinion on him being a starter or staying in the pen. I don't think him wanting to be a starter should mean the Twins put him back in the rotation, though. It's their jobs to put players in the best positions to succeed, not just put them where they want to be. You don't think most relievers want to be starters? Don't think every middle relief guy wants to be a closer? Don't think infielders all want to play SS and hit 3rd? I'd also continue to use him in the fireman role he was in last year. He'd be the guy I bring in for all the high leverage situations, and to face the heart of the other team's lineup. I think it's just as hard to find a guy who can excel in that role as it is to find a guy who can lock down the 9th in a 1 run game.

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Was it is his 5.06 ERA in AAA last year as a starter with 13 walks in 16 innings that sways you to him being a starter? Only once in his minor league career did he have an ERA below 3.25 and that was in 6 starts in A ball back in 2018. He has never pitched more than 115 innings in a season. So if the Twins wanted to make him a starter this year maybe his innings jump from 83 2/3 to 130ish? that means 25, 5 innings starts, yea.

I would much rather they stretch him out to 100/110 innings this year using him as a fireman type role and if that works maybe next year give him a spot in the rotation.

Not exactly sure how many conclusions I'd draw from a 16 inning season but, sure feel free to do so.  Joe Ryan had ONE minor league season in which he pitched 98 innings.  Pablo Lopez had one minor league season over 100 innings.  Bailey Ober has never pitched over 78 innings in a minor league season.  Josh Winder one year over 72 innings.  Louis Varland has had one season over 115 innings in the minors.  Chris Paddack never tossed more than 90 minor league innings in a season.  Wanna go around the league(s)?  Aaron Nola never tossed more than 110 innings in a minor league season.  Gerritt Cole over 115 once.  Justin Verlander hit 118.  Guys throwing lots of minor league innings is not really a thing.  Teams limit guys to avoid arm issues.  We can do whatever you'd like with him this year.  None of which is gonna get us an ace.

10 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Not exactly sure how many conclusions I'd draw from a 16 inning season but, sure feel free to do so.  Joe Ryan had ONE minor league season in which he pitched 98 innings.  Pablo Lopez had one minor league season over 100 innings.  Bailey Ober has never pitched over 78 innings in a minor league season.  Josh Winder one year over 72 innings.  Louis Varland has had one season over 115 innings in the minors.  Chris Paddack never tossed more than 90 minor league innings in a season.  Wanna go around the league(s)?  Aaron Nola never tossed more than 110 innings in a minor league season.  Gerritt Cole over 115 once.  Justin Verlander hit 118.  Guys throwing lots of minor league innings is not really a thing.  Teams limit guys to avoid arm issues.  We can do whatever you'd like with him this year.  None of which is gonna get us an ace.

You missed my points. #1 he was never close to being great in the minors as a starter. #2 he needs to be stretched out and that takes time they are not going to let him jump from 67.66 to 150+ innings, they aren't. Then you comparing him to Verlander, Cole, and Nola is absolutely crazy talk, when you pulled there minor league numbers, you left out the fact that Verlander didn't even spend a whole season in the minors and pitched more innings than Duran has. How about Cole 130 total in 11 (College), 132 in 12 (minors) and in 13 68 (minors) then 117.33 in the majors. Nola 100 in 12(College), In 13 126 in college, in 14 116.33 in college and 55.33 in the minors, the next year 109.33 in the minors and another 77.66 in the majors?

As for Winder, Ober, Paddack using them to compare anybody doesn't win a discussion unless you are trying to convince somebody about injury prone.

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

You missed my points. #1 he was never close to being great in the minors as a starter. #2 he needs to be stretched out and that takes time they are not going to let him jump from 67.66 to 150+ innings, they aren't. Then you comparing him to Verlander, Cole, and Nola is absolutely crazy talk, when you pulled there minor league numbers, you left out the fact that Verlander didn't even spend a whole season in the minors and pitched more innings than Duran has. How about Cole 130 total in 11 (College), 132 in 12 (minors) and in 13 68 (minors) then 117.33 in the majors. Nola 100 in 12(College), In 13 126 in college, in 14 116.33 in college and 55.33 in the minors, the next year 109.33 in the minors and another 77.66 in the majors?

As for Winder, Ober, Paddack using them to compare anybody doesn't win a discussion unless you are trying to convince somebody about injury prone.

None of which invalidates any of my numbers.

29 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

None of which invalidates any of my numbers.

I guess I am missing your point, some of the pitchers you mentioned were limited do to injuries and/or building up their arm, the others were limited because of the lack of time they spent in the minors. Which I am not sure what has to do with Duran, his innings were limited because of injuries and at times just not being very good. In the majors he was switched to the bullpen and things clicked, Can/should he switched back is the question, and IMO if they want to try him as a starter they need to build his innings up, which I would do by leaving him in the pen but letting him be more of a fireman, sometimes an inning, sometimes two and sometimes three and he can do that next year they could put him in the rotation, If they just put him there this year he would be limited to around 20/25 starts at 5 innings a start and probably early in the year more like 3 or 4 innings starts, that seems like a bad way to use him, IMO.

He clearly has the best stuff on the team and that would probably still be the case throwing 98 instead of 102. I don't know why people are so afraid to try. Imagine what a waste of talent it would have been if the Twins had kept Johan Santana in the bullpen. Relievers get hurt all the damned time; they're not protecting his arm having him throw 102 in the bullpen.

Give him 30 starts. Even if he's only "Sonny Gray" caliber he should stay in the rotation. If you get a season like 1974 Rich Gossage move him back to the bullpen.

14 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I guess I am missing your point, some of the pitchers you mentioned were limited do to injuries and/or building up their arm, the others were limited because of the lack of time they spent in the minors. Which I am not sure what has to do with Duran, his innings were limited because of injuries and at times just not being very good. In the majors he was switched to the bullpen and things clicked, Can/should he switched back is the question, and IMO if they want to try him as a starter they need to build his innings up, which I would do by leaving him in the pen but letting him be more of a fireman, sometimes an inning, sometimes two and sometimes three and he can do that next year they could put him in the rotation, If they just put him there this year he would be limited to around 20/25 starts at 5 innings a start and probably early in the year more like 3 or 4 innings starts, that seems like a bad way to use him, IMO.

And if  they don't put him out there this year, when?  And we're still looking for an ace a year from now and a year beyond that.  Actually, I'd be thrilled with 25 starts at 5 innings per start.  Especially if it lead to being stretched out more next year.  If you need to build his innings up, fine.  But you can't do that if you don't start somewhere.  And like I've said before, what good is an elite high leverage guy late in the ball game if you still don't have an ace?

13 hours ago, DJL44 said:

He clearly has the best stuff on the team and that would probably still be the case throwing 98 instead of 102. I don't know why people are so afraid to try. Imagine what a waste of talent it would have been if the Twins had kept Johan Santana in the bullpen. Relievers get hurt all the damned time; they're not protecting his arm having him throw 102 in the bullpen.

Give him 30 starts. Even if he's only "Sonny Gray" caliber he should stay in the rotation. If you get a season like 1974 Rich Gossage move him back to the bullpen.

Why are people comparing Duran to Santana? Santana was a 21 year old rule 5 guy that took 4 full years to move fully into the rotation. Duran is 25 (24 last year) coming off of an injury plagued 21 and no pitching in 20. And lets not forget not a great minor league starter (Either was Santana for that matter).

If you give Duran 30 this year he going to average 4 innings per starter, because there is no chance they jump his innings from 83 to 150.

9 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

And if  they don't put him out there this year, when?

2024 could be the year. They will lose Mahle, Maeda and Gray to free agency.

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Why are people comparing Duran to Santana?

Because Santana is an example of a reliever to starter conversion that worked incredibly well for this franchise.

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Because Santana is an example of a reliever to starter conversion that worked incredibly well for this franchise.

it took 4 years for Santana to become a full time starter and he was in his early 20's, that would put Duran close to 30, so I don't think they are fair comparisons. Liriano would be a better comparison because of his injury at age 23, but he isn't used because that didn't turn out so well, correct?

33 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

it took 4 years for Santana to become a full time starter and he was in his early 20's, that would put Duran close to 30, so I don't think they are fair comparisons. Liriano would be a better comparison because of his injury at age 23, but he isn't used because that didn't turn out so well, correct?

In 2000 Santana was in the bullpen because they had to keep him on the roster. The second season he was still developing as a pitcher - just like Duran was at age 22. 

Duran was brought up last season because his stuff was too good to leave in the minor leagues. He reached a level of success higher than Santana in 2002 - which is when they decided to try Santana in the rotation. Santana was clearly ready for the rotation in 2003 but the org brought in Kenny Rogers. Duran 2022 is very similar to Santana 2002.

What Duran did in Double-A at age 21 is very similar to what Joe Ryan did in the majors last year. I think that's Duran's floor as a starting pitcher. His ceiling is a staff ace.

On 1/29/2023 at 6:36 PM, dxpavelka said:

Not in Rocco's Modern Life.

Why would you want to have anybody in the 'conventional closer' role like in years past?  This would mean you put him in only in the 9th.  It is much more advantageous to let the closer role be fluid.  Why save  Duran's talents for the 9th when you're up 3 runs when you could instead use him in the 7th when we might be only up by 1?  A fluid pen which allows us to put in pitchers with the best matchups is the smart way to go IMO.