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3 Moves still available for the Twins this off season

Doc Munson

Entry posted by Doc Munson in Twins Offseason Moves ·

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This is all of course predicated on Correa staying in New York. Also a couple of these moves are related to each other.

#1 Trading redundant players. Not breaking any news here. Kepler and even Arraez have both been mentioned as trade candidates. Especially after the Joey Gallo signing. Yes the Twins could very easily keep Kepler and go with an OF of Kepler, Buxton, Gallo. AND if they feel Kepler will have a strong season with the shift rules changes, then the best move is to keep him and potentially trade him for higher value at the deadline. If he has a strong 1st half then that $10M team option for next year greatly increases his trade value. I am not sure what the trade value is for either Kepler or Arraez, so I am not going to sit here and say.. Lets trade Kepler for Sandy Alcantara to improve our pitching This trade group is also not limited to Kepler, Wallner, Larnach, Kirilloff could all also be slotted into this scenario.  We cannot play them all, and there may even be better overall fits out there instead of them (although I like Wallner and Larnach). And this brings me to move #2...

#2 Sign Domnic Smith. I still cannot believe he is unsigned. Dom is not a game changer, but he can play GG caliber defense at 1B. and has a very solid bat, with even "great bat" potential. He never got consistent ABs at his natural 1B position with the Mets. He could be signed at a very team friendly deal at this point. If there is decent trade value in Kirilloff, Kepler, any other LH or potential 1B on this squad then trading them and signing Dom is a great move, because not only would we secure Dom cheaply, but also get some return for players he will replace.

 

#3 Call Texas regarding Ezequiel Duran. This again is dependent on what else we do, especially if we trade Arraez. Yes we have Farmer as a potential SS/utility IF kind of guy, but Ezequiel Duran can play MORE positions, is younger/cheaper, and I think an overall superior bat. he is a natural 2B, but can play 3B & SS, and has gotten some time in the OF. with Seager, Simien, Jung on the IF he is blocked. Maybe this is a good swap with Kepler as Texas is still looking for an OF. and while I like Polanco at 2B he is $7.5M this year and $10.5 next. SO this also helps free up cash IF the Twins ever decide to step up and pay in the deep end of the FA pool.

 

AND... While I said these moves assume Correa stays with Mets. These moves make even MORE sense if something weird happens where Mets back out and the Twins can get Correa for something along the lines of the 10 years $285M they offered, although I would do something more like 8 for $250. (Higher AAV but less long-term risk). As these moves would clear $16M this year and $12-20M depending on options next year and replace with equal offensive output in Dom Smith & Duran).  Dom's position wouldn't be the same, but bat for bat Smith would be an upgrade over Kepler, and allow one of Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner to play the 3rd OF spot.

 

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Doctor Gast

Agreed it makes a lot of sense to trade from our redundancy. Kepler, Kiriloff & Larnach are down in trade value because of injury & the hyper shift. So it makes sense not trade any of them until the deadline. Arraez makes the most sense because his trade value is the highest that ever be, we are out nothing if we trade Gallo. That being said more than likely Arraez & Gallo won't be traded & Kepler will be traded for a couple of poor players & or poor lottery tickets.

Our biggest hole while were pursuing Correa was SS. Now after we have moved on from Correa, has that hole suddenly disappeared? No it hasn't, & should be our #1 priority to fill. While Farmer's # are very good against LHPs (which face less than 10%) and not that good against RHPs. Farmer's splits are the 1st 2 lines.

Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
vs RHP 140   425 387 39 91 15 0 6 43 2 2 20 73 .235 .291 .320 .611 124 16 12 2 4 0 3 .272 75 75
vs LHP 75   158 139 19 43 10 1 8 35 2 1 13 26 .309 .380 .568 .948 79 4 4 0 2

0

0

.327 168 1

Split

G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
vs RHP 86   239 213 29 63 8 1 2 12 1 0 23 33 .296 .367 .371 .738 79 11 1 2 0 1 1 .343 11

Luis Guillorme is the last line. Guilorme had a 1.6 WAR while only having 297 ABs, with the Twins, he could almost double that. A SS platoon of Guillorme (against RHPs) and Farmer (against LHPs) could be a very formidable force. That'd be my second step.

My 3rd step would be to pick up Nelson Cruz. A RH power bat that has thrived under our environment. He might not get as many ABs as before but I believe his ABs will be premium. Plus we'll need his leadership & mentorship. Plus I'd love to see him hit his 500th HR in a Twin uniform and he'd be a great coach when he decides to move on.

 

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Otaknam

Dominic Smith is another left handed bat locked into first base, Kiriloff’s best position. Right now Arraez will also get some time there unless a trade is made. So that seems like a redundant move to me if Kiriloff is healthy. Nelson Cruz would take at bats from younger players so that makes no sense. 

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TopGunn#22

Good points and insights Doc Munson.  The Twins FO should be far from done.  I don't know much about Duran from Texas, but I like your reasoning.  I also like Doc Gast's point regarding Guillorme.  He's certainly blocked in New York.  What would it take to get him? We certainly have a lopsided roster with all these LH hitting corner outfielders.  Another possible option for a RH OF bat would be Adam Duval.  Very similar to Gallo with good "D" and power, except he's a bit more dependable than Gallo and would be a major upgrade from Garlick.  I know it's practically blasphemous to advocate trading Arraez, but even though I'm a fan, his trade value will never be higher and I for one am excited to see Edward Julien at some point.  Between Polanco, Gordon and Julien and to a minor degree Arraez we've got plenty of 2B-man.  Deal Polanco or Arraez for pitching and include Larnach.  I like tony&rodney's targets of Edward Cabrera and Jesus Luzardo.  Max Meyer and Pablo Lopez are also good options.

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Doc Munson
On 12/30/2022 at 9:25 AM, Otaknam said:

Dominic Smith is another left handed bat locked into first base, Kiriloff’s best position. Right now Arraez will also get some time there unless a trade is made. So that seems like a redundant move to me if Kiriloff is healthy. Nelson Cruz would take at bats from younger players so that makes no sense. 

Yes, I can agree to that. another LH bat that plays 1st and occasional  OF  could be redundant. For 100% transparency I am just a big Dominic Smith fan. But yeah we would need to move Kirilloff and Arraez... AND Kepler to make Dom a good fit.  Shoudl we move 3 players just to resign 1 similar player? I guess it all depends on what we can get for the three, and the cost of the one.  but again since I am a Dom fan I say YES!!!!! hehe.

And interesting you bring up Cruz, I was going to include him as well.  LOL   WHile we want to get away from a a DH only type, and is Cruz's last 1.5 seasons his eventual decline?  I dont care!! he is a great hitter that can teach young guys and a great clubhouse presence and would love Boomstick back in this lineup!!  :)

 

 

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dxpavelka
On 12/31/2022 at 11:30 AM, Doc Munson said:

Yes, I can agree to that. another LH bat that plays 1st and occasional  OF  could be redundant. For 100% transparency I am just a big Dominic Smith fan. But yeah we would need to move Kirilloff and Arraez... AND Kepler to make Dom a good fit.  Shoudl we move 3 players just to resign 1 similar player? I guess it all depends on what we can get for the three, and the cost of the one.  but again since I am a Dom fan I say YES!!!!! hehe.

And interesting you bring up Cruz, I was going to include him as well.  LOL   WHile we want to get away from a a DH only type, and is Cruz's last 1.5 seasons his eventual decline?  I dont care!! he is a great hitter that can teach young guys and a great clubhouse presence and would love Boomstick back in this lineup!!  :)

 

 

One only has to look at the decline of Sano to understand the impact of Cruz' clubhouse presence.

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ashbury
Quote

Lets trade Kepler for Sandy Alcantara to improve our pitching

You're right, that's not very realistic. You can't improve on our Pitching Pipeline™.

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Minny505
On 12/29/2022 at 11:24 AM, Doctor Gast said:

Agreed it makes a lot of sense to trade from our redundancy. Kepler, Kiriloff & Larnach are down in trade value because of injury & the hyper shift. So it makes sense not trade any of them until the deadline. Arraez makes the most sense because his trade value is the highest that ever be, we are out nothing if we trade Gallo. That being said more than likely Arraez & Gallo won't be traded & Kepler will be traded for a couple of poor players & or poor lottery tickets.

Our biggest hole while were pursuing Correa was SS. Now after we have moved on from Correa, has that hole suddenly disappeared? No it hasn't, & should be our #1 priority to fill. While Farmer's # are very good against LHPs (which face less than 10%) and not that good against RHPs. Farmer's splits are the 1st 2 lines.

Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
vs RHP 140   425 387 39 91 15 0 6 43 2 2 20 73 .235 .291 .320 .611 124 16 12 2 4 0 3 .272 75 75
vs LHP 75   158 139 19 43 10 1 8 35 2 1 13 26 .309 .380 .568 .948 79 4 4 0 2

0

0

.327 168 1

Split

G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
vs RHP 86   239 213 29 63 8 1 2 12 1 0 23 33 .296 .367 .371 .738 79 11 1 2 0 1 1 .343 11

Luis Guillorme is the last line. Guilorme had a 1.6 WAR while only having 297 ABs, with the Twins, he could almost double that. A SS platoon of Guillorme (against RHPs) and Farmer (against LHPs) could be a very formidable force. That'd be my second step.

My 3rd step would be to pick up Nelson Cruz. A RH power bat that has thrived under our environment. He might not get as many ABs as before but I believe his ABs will be premium. Plus we'll need his leadership & mentorship. Plus I'd love to see him hit his 500th HR in a Twin uniform and he'd be a great coach when he decides to move on.

 

I think you originally turned me on to the Guillorme idea about 8 weeks ago and it makes so much sense. Such a good idea!

The Twins brass better at least be exploring this option. He can't be that expensive, especially if/when the Mets complete the Correa deal. 

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Doctor Gast
40 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

I think you originally turned me on to the Guillorme idea about 8 weeks ago and it makes so much sense. Such a good idea!

The Twins brass better at least be exploring this option. He can't be that expensive, especially if/when the Mets complete the Correa deal. 

He's cheap. BTV has him at 5.2 compared to Kim 18.4 & Hoerner 30 something. Straight up we can trade Raya but there are so many ways we can make this happen with lesser prospects.

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