Thanks Tim , I really like trade talk so I really enjoyed going over your article. You did an excellent job presenting your case and you hit our needs right on the head.

Yet IMO Snell is over-hyped. Snell had success in the shorten season, I don't give any credence in that, only in a full season. IMO he isn't any better than what we have, yet will be much more expensive.

I was really hoping that Campusano would materialize but I think he's over-hyped. When they say they don't know if he'd stick at catcher, for me that raises red flags. Jeffers is a hitting catcher, he has just learned some bad mechanics and even with his bad arm I still take him over Sanchez. 

I still have a bad taste from the Rogers/ Paddack trade and I'm very leary of any trade with them. Besides if I'd trade Kepler it'd have to be a for an established front line SP, that can help us right now not an iffy catcher that might help us in the future.

Last year I advocated for Musgrove, that away from PIT he'd really blossom. PIT offered us Musgrove and all it'd have taken was a simple counter offer but that didn't happen. Later SD stole him away from PIT.

Whether it turns out that the Twins and Padres get serious at the deadline, I really enjoyed this deep dive.

Kepler makes sense in trade to a select few teams, and you identified the reasons the Padres should have their feet held to the fire. 

I am not as high on Snell as you are, anymore - he feels to me like a second coming of Archer with short starts that have to be artfully managed - but all that matters is whether the Twins talent evaluators feel they could bring more out of him than he has shown in 2021-2.  For the purpose of discussion I'll go along with your assessment that the Twins would want him.

I agree that if this is the basis for the trade, then the Twins need more than this 1-1 swap.  And that's where I come back to holding the Padres' feet to the fire.  They need a RF upgrade.  And I'm not that enamored of catcher Campusano (hitting numbers in the California League and at El Paso are always suspect to me).  So yes, let's go ahead and talk about Abrams or Hassell.  What if we include Austin Martin, everyone's favorite trade chip at the moment?  Prospect lists have him either as first or second on the Twins, but I doubt that a revised ranking would have him so high.  Would the Padres go along with downgrading from Abrams to Martin in middle infield, in return for the sizable upgrade in RF from Kepler plus the salary relief on Snell?  Or would they downgrade from Hassell to Martin in the outfield (if that's the latter's eventual destination anyway), and "throw in" power hitting 1Bman James Wood?  (I know, both are high ranked, but Kepler is really, really valuable.)  Maybe we have to add a lottery-ticket arm from the low minors, say (picking from a hat) 2021 draftee Pierson Ohl, or they give us one if they won't include Wood with Hassell, to even things out.

I'm not wedded to any particular deal or structure.  The Trade Simulator site seems to like either of these added arrangements enough to make it at least the start for a conversation, but I don't get too hung up on exact values (they value Hassell less than Abrams) because it depends on how the two teams specifically evaluate each chip in the trade.

I like to aim high, and if we have leverage over the other team via Kepler it's a chance to snag a difference maker. 

I'll add, in reply to Doctor Gast's response, that I too would like front line starting pitching.  I just don't believe Kepler moves the needle in any conceivable trade for one.  Pitching requires pitching in return, great gobs of pitching when high-end established talent is at stake.  I would love to be proved wrong with an actual upgrade to our rotation of course.

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

I like to aim high, and if we have leverage over the other team via Kepler it's a chance to snag a difference maker. 

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

I'll add, in reply to Doctor Gast's response, that I too would like front line starting pitching.  

Obviously this would be slightly more complicated, but I love the concept of working with the Rays in a deal.

They've needed a catcher all year and Zunino might be out a while. Happ brings the versatility they covet in every player and allows them to slide Margot to center. Also has some team control left. Both are huge offensive upgrades.

Kiermaier is on an expiring deal and just matches w $

Cubs get major league ready talent to add to the quick rebuild course they are. Steer is pretty similar profile to what Happ has been for them, can play all over the infield. Miranda can fill in a 1st or 3rd for them long term and Balazovic is the upside arm flier.

Twins get a pitching prospect in Bradley who has been fantastic in AA and shouldn't be far from pitching at the major league level, most likely this year.

Patino screams Twins front office darling with his slider and has a proven track record. Still super young .. Would be a fantastic addition in the pen or rotation the rest of the season.

Miley is a rental, been there done that vet who can eat innings and not completely implode.

2 young pitching prospects with tons of upside and can help this year? yes pls

I LOVE this deal for everyone involved

35 minutes ago, Tim said:

I LOVE this deal for everyone involved

Another fun scenario.  I do think the Twins would have a hard time saying no, to converting a suddenly suspect arm into two, at the cost of two potent bats.  But I have a hard time seeing Tampa parting with two young and legit arms for a catcher and a corner bat, no matter how compelling those bats are.

Have you submitted either of these trade proposals at the BTV.com site where you developed them, to see what kind of reaction you get?  Maybe I'm all wet.

I like BTV.com, but I almost feel like you have to separate "pitcher trade value" and "batter trade value" as two very alien things that are hard to mix in the present environment, except as sweeteners, or else at a 1.5-to-1 ratio favoring pitcher points.

9 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Another fun scenario.  I do think the Twins would have a hard time saying no, to converting a suddenly suspect arm into two, at the cost of two potent bats.  But I have a hard time seeing Tampa parting with two young and legit arms for a catcher and a corner bat, no matter how compelling those bats are.

Have you submitted either of these trade proposals at the BTV.com site where you developed them, to see what kind of reaction you get?  Maybe I'm all wet.

I like BTV.com, but I almost feel like you have to separate "pitcher trade value" and "batter trade value" as two very alien things that are hard to mix in the present environment, except as sweeteners, or else at a 1.5-to-1 ratio favoring pitcher points.

Idk if I’d classify Happ as just a corner bat. He’s logged the majority of his professional innings in center field and 30% of his games started with the Cubs have been at 2nd or 3rd.

7 minutes ago, JustinTyner said:

Idk if I’d classify Happ as just a corner bat. He’s logged the majority of his professional innings in center field and 30% of his games started with the Cubs have been at 2nd or 3rd.

28 minutes ago, JustinTyner said:

Idk if I’d classify Happ as just a corner bat. He’s logged the majority of his professional innings in center field and 30% of his games started with the Cubs have been at 2nd or 3rd.

I might have sold him a little short on his defense.  Still, players' positions evolve as they go through their career, so I wouldn't go by innings counts that go very far back, either.  I don't follow them closely (don't tell my inlaws!) but I looked and the Cubs seem to have had a revolving door in CF this season, with rookie Morel getting the call in mid-May and seeming to be entrenched now.  But even during the first several weeks Happ was used in center only for 12 innings in total.  If a team on the skids isn't using him in center, I doubt a team like the Rays who are accustomed to the defensive stylings of Kevin Kiermaier would look favorably on that idea. I think I'll amend my capsule scouting report on Happ as "good-glove corner bat."   Which, IMO, doesn't net a team a serious starting pitcher.  And neither does a bat-first catcher, so together they don't get you two.  As always, I Could Be Wrong, and GMs will do what GMs do.

32 minutes ago, JustinTyner said:

 

BTW, you any relation to Jason?

Nicely done, but I think Snell is done and I think Tampa knew that when they let him go. 

I think people undervalue Max's defense and only look at offense.  I am not a fan of trading established MLB guys when you are competing for struggling guys or prospects.  I am not saying I hate the trade idea, I am not sold on it either. If Padres think Campusano can stick behind the plate, I doubt they give him up for a RF, even by us taking on Snell's contract.  Offensive catchers are hard to find.  If we are taking building for future the deal could help us, but if we talking for this year, I do not think it helps us. 

IMO Twins say yes, Pads want someone younger like AK or maybe Larnach.

I'm all for trading Kepler. I think we've seen his best season and all that is left is mediocrity. Even if he makes improvement over the last 2 seasons I think it is time for a full fledge youth movement in the outfield with Larnach, Celestino, Gordon and Kirilloff joining Buxton. The Twins like to unload veteran players that start costing too much especially if they aren't top-of-line superstars like Buxton. Kepler is reaching that level. He still has trade value unlike a Sano so the time to move him and replace him with adequate younger players is now. 

4 minutes ago, rv78 said:

I'm all for trading Kepler. I think we've seen his best season and all that is left is mediocrity. Even if he makes improvement over the last 2 seasons I think it is time for a full fledge youth movement in the outfield with Larnach,  Gordon and Kirilloff joining Buxton.

None of whom have performed offensively and defensively, especially defense, as Kepler; good way to reduce the chance of winning by becoming a boarding school for AAA players.

I’m not against the idea of shipping off Kepler or the Twins eating a contract of a high-end starter, I just doubt that the Padres would give all that up JUST for Kepler, maybe a mid-level prospect like Drew Strotman or Cole Sands and that could complete the deal. Along with that, I think it’s risky to eat a starter’s contract when the starter is struggling as oppose to losing prospects, Snell CAN be good, but do you want him for another year or two?

Why would the Twins take on a contract of a struggling pitcher and give up their most consistent outfielder? It seems the Twins were already very charitable towards San Diego this year, no need to be so gracious twice in one season.

I had not considered a 3-team deal and had actually not considered Kepler going to the Padres.  If we're looking at the Reds or A's, they wouldn't want Kepler.  They'd want Kirilloff or Larnach.  The Padres however, want to win NOW and would be very interested in someone like Kepler.  

I'm just not sure with a guy like Snell.  His velocity and stuff appear to be as good as his Cy Young season, but the results are a far cry form it.  Obviously, if you get "Cy Young Snell" it's a brilliant trade.  But what he seems to be right now is nowhere near that.  I do get the sense however that someone among Kepler, Kirilloff or Larnach may be the key piece in a trade to bring back a front line pitcher.  I think Snell is too risky and other targets are more likely.  I just can't see the Twins taking on the contract of Yu Darvish either.

I can see Kepler moved under that scenario and keeping Kiriloff, who I think is destined for .300 with 40+ doubles, 25-30 HR, 100+ RBI. 

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

I can see Kepler moved under that scenario and keeping Kiriloff, who I think is destined for .300 with 40+ doubles, 25-30 HR, 100+ RBI. 

And when Sano gets back he will hit .270 with 40 home runs.