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Twins Spending Can Take Another Step Forward


Ted Schwerzler

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Today Maury Brown put an article out at Forbes that illustrated some of the economic impact across baseball in relation to a pandemic shortened 2020 season. While the league as a whole spent roughly $2.5B less on salaries, the per game adjustments note a step forward. The Twins can and need to afford a similar path in the year ahead.

 

In 2019 $2,472,194,292 more dollars were spent on payrolls across baseball. Obviously, there were also 102 more games played that season. Adjusting the calendar to be in line with what we experienced during 2020 however, a 12% increase in player salaries would’ve been realized.

 

On the Twins front, Minnesota paid out $52,627,942 in salaries during the 2020 season. That was good enough for 19th in baseball. They paid a total of $125,205,980 in 2019, and that comes out to an adjusted amount of $46,372,585. It makes sense that the Pohlad family would push more finances into roster construction during an open window and following a length period of cost savings, but it’s glad to see that come to fruition.

 

After going big on Josh Donaldson to the tune of a four-year deal worth at least $100 million, Minnesota again finds themselves in a position to spend. Although payroll positioning isn’t indicative of talent of future finish (just ask the Tampa Bay Rays), stockpiling more assets is hardly a bad practice. Coming off a second straight AL Central division title and looking to supplement an already strong core around a star like Donaldson, another step up makes plenty of sense.

 

Despite the down revenues for the league as a whole in 2020, the reality is that Scott Boras’ assessment is likely factual. Teams didn’t actually lose money as much as they simply didn’t take in typical profits. Coming off years of record growth financially however, that should hardly be the sole motivator, and especially not for organizations in the midst of prime competitive windows.

 

Minnesota has a respectable farm system and one that has both established depth while harboring some very high projected prospects at the top. Even Royce Lewis though shouldn’t be considered a cornerstone on a Major League team for the next one or two seasons. That’s a point in which most of the Twins core is looking into their 30’s while the big contract for Donaldson is a year from lapsing. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine can’t throw caution to the wind, but they’ve built a sustained winner, and now is time to continue adding pieces.

 

There have been rumblings about what the Twins plan to do at the shortstop position, and there’s no doubt they have holes in the starting rotation as it would currently be constructed. Minnesota is never going to be able to compete with big market clubs purely from an enticement factor but saving dollars doesn’t make much sense given the state of the competitive opportunity and the challenge Chicago will certainly present.

 

It’s good to see that even in a year with decreased revenues and unprecedented hurdles the Twins stepped up on the bottom line. Now they need to continue to weather the storm and do it again for 2021.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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Rumors, rumors, rumors. The Twins will be buyers. The Twins are "in" on a lot of good FA. The Twins MIGHT be in line for a major trade. Plus, ownership has stated they are not looking to recoup any losses from 2020.

 

What does it mean when you add it all up?

 

Who knows? Covid, financial losses, still no clue for 2021 in regard to a start time, how many games, how many fans, etc. No wonder the MLB world is so quiet.

 

But I do believe in the old adage of "where there's smoke there is fire". I have little belief the Twins will be involved in any major trade for a 1yr player with hopes of an expensive extension. Just not prudent, or in keeping with the approach of our FO.

 

What your numbers and all the rumors DO SAY TO ME is the Twins will not cut their "initial" 2020 payroll, or only have a slight cut. Now, I'm confused by the numbers you posted for 2020 as initial reports, IIRC, were south of $140M, not including bonus earnings. So if I read your adjusted 2019 to 2020 payroll numbers, the Twins raised an adjusted payroll approximately $6.5M.

 

My biggest takeaway was still finishing at 19th in MLB, meaning they still hadn't hit the medium yet.

 

Again, I do not expect some major trade that others hope for or speculate. They want sustainability and aren't willing to "gut" the system for an addition or two when the market is ripe to simply add vs trade. IMO, they will keep the payroll basically where it was to begin 2020. That would mean approximately $50M available, maybe slightly less, on a sliding scale of proration that is not yet determined.

 

That is more than enough to augment the existing roster in a variety of ways from a SP not named Bauer, a quality bat that may or may not be Cruz, a couple nice 10th/11th man players and a couple of three RP in a flooded market. Might even have a couple $M left over for a 5th SP flier and a cheap veteran catcher option.

 

I am guessing no major trade, but smart FA signings, a couple late deals, and maybe a small trade for someone they like. They payroll comes in, un-ajusted, around $135-140M. Pretty much how they began 2020.

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Realmuto might be a smart free agent signing. Add Liam Hendriks and Tyler Clippard as well and one trade for a pitcher and the Twins are in a sound position for next season.

A rotation of Berrios, Maeda, the trade, Pineda, and Hill/Duran/Dobnak/Balazovic.

The bullpen is strong with: Hendriks, Rogers, Duffey, Clippard, Alcala, Stashak, Thielbar and a young guy not starting held here for middle relief.

Finally, the lineup looks really strong with Sano, Realmuto, Kirilloff, Arraez, Donaldson, Polanco, Larnach/Rooker, Buxton, and Kepler supported ably by Jeffers, Adrianza, and Cave.

This comes in at around $130 million and allows Baldelli to look smart when he looks stoically out at his forces.

There are so many free agent options that are very appealing this offseason and the Twins can really move forward with just three or four signings. Trades might be trickier. 

It is nearly 2021 and I am willing to think positive for next year.

I'm super hopeful that management sees opportunity in the options available.

Finally, despite 2020 being very tough, a budget similar to last March makes sense.

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The teams that are willing to stick their necks out a little bit and not hide in their basements will be the winners of this off season.  If the Twins committ to spending $125-$140 million on payroll they should be able to sign and/or trade for some nice pieces.  

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Reasons to like Realmuto: the shortages across baseball at catcher, he is quite athletic, hits well, strong defense behind the plate, a good eye and limits his strikeouts. The more we look at improving the team, the more athleticism and positional flexibility makes sense. Various players would rotate through the DH position. Signing Realmuto is putting the neck out for the Twins. 

 

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