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mikelink45

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Twins Video

blog-0885512001571450404.jpgWhy am I seeing shots at Eddie Rosario all over TD? No, he is not our best player, but he is a good player. He gets 1.6 WAR this year according to Baseball Reference. He had a line of .276 /.300/.500/.800 this year and in the little aside on the MVP for this year he sounds like he should be LVP. Last year he was .288/.323/.479/.803 and the same site named him MVP. Now we want to trade him for a broken bat and one of the regular season rabbit balls. What is going on.

 

He is not HOF, but he is good. Who will take his place? Who will hit 32HRs and 109 RBIs if he is gone? Can we guarantee Larnach or Kiriloff are ready to do it? I hate having to be the one to speak up for Eddie, but someone has to question the madness.

 

Here are some highlights - go ahead 3-run home run https://www.mlb.com/video/eddie-rosario-homers-21-on-a-fly-ball-to-right-center-field-luis-arraez-scores-m

 

Astudillo and Rosario lead win

 

Rosario 4 hit game https://www.mlb.com/video/rosario-homers-in-4-hit-game

 

Garver and Rosario lead win

 

Home Run 31 https://www.mlb.com/video/eddie-rosario-homers-31-on-a-fly-ball-to-right-center-field

 

No he is not great - but he is good and if we choose to trade him it should not be because we want to get rid of him, but because we get a player who can do even more to help us win in the post season.

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About time for some Eddie...Eddie...Eddie Rosario love.   I hope he can work on his defense a little more next year, and continue to make strides with his offense.    Not hearing a lot of love out there recently, but he was on the field more than any other of the Nothin' but Raindrops crew this season, and had a higher batting average and more RBI than any of them.  The Twins need to keep #20 in that line-up.

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I like Eddie in left field. He had a great throw to win that game in Boston. I think he is a better fielder with Buxton in center. His ankle injury seemed to hurt his second half of the season. He needs to hustle more when he hits a ground ball out, but that is Rocco's job. He was a solid cleanup hitter who drove in more than 100 runs. Very successful season.

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My spin is that if Twins fans are complaining about Eddie Rosario as the main issue among position players then the Twins are really in a position of strength. First world problems are nice after nearly ten years of almost constant struggle. Eddie does need to shore up the lazy defensive lapses and hustle all the time. He's just hitting his prime so it better be quite a haul if the Twins trade him.

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I think hate is probably a poor adjective to use here. I think people think that he's the easy one to trade and get pitching (I doubt that personally). It's definitely a question as to whether or not he's in long term plans as I suspect Buxton probably is (or possibly moving Lewis to CF at some point)...

 

Eddie is a good but flawed player, so he's usually going to bring some consternation. He's doing better at taking pitches, but he still swings a lot at pitches he has no business swinging at and occasionally finds himself on the wrong end of an inexcusable play.

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I think hate is probably a poor adjective to use here. I think people think that he's the easy one to trade and get pitching (I doubt that personally). It's definitely a question as to whether or not he's in long term plans as I suspect Buxton probably is (or possibly moving Lewis to CF at some point)...

 

Eddie is a good but flawed player, so he's usually going to bring some consternation. He's doing better at taking pitches, but he still swings a lot at pitches he has no business swinging at and occasionally finds himself on the wrong end of an inexcusable play.

Maybe I have listed to Gleeman and the Geek too much.  I think Lewis is our insurance package for Buxton who has demonstrated too many injuries - which in the long run take a toll, as does age, on a player who depends on speed.  Eddie might not be long term in LF either with Kiriloff and Larnach, but I do not want to be without him until they are ready to provide at least as much offense since neither of them gets written up as defensive greats.

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Mike, I get what you're feeling, but I would agree with an earlier post, it's not hate.  It's that Eddie is a good player who would probably get us a very good starting pitcher and with 4 out of the 5 spots needing to be filled in next year's rotation the Twins NEED to get one SP thru a trade.  Even with the payroll giving them a LOT of room to operate, they can't just "sign everybody."  I want the Twins to aim high for starting pitching.  No Carl Pavano, Martin Perez types.  Go get a Cole or a Strasburg.  With Larnach and Kiriloff waiting in the wings we can't keep everybody.  I think BOTH will be better, more productive hitters than Eddie.  And that's not a slam on Eddie.  I watched Larnach come thru in the clutch time and time again 2 years ago in leading Oregon State to the NCAA Championship.  I was thrilled when we drafted him.  Kiriloff was drafted out of high school one year before Larnach.  He looks like a STUD.  Many are targeting Eddie for a trade because those two guys could be up in the bigs very soon, sooner if we trade Eddie.   

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The best example of Eddie hate I've seen this week was when someone commented "The only thing Eddie did was hit a meaningless homer in the 8th inning of Game 3 against the Yankees".

 

It was hilarious to me because if Arraez had hit that HR, you just know that poster would have said "Arraez, wow, what heart and grit, he's the only Twin who is trying to win this ball game. RESPECT."

 

I think some people are turned off at Eddie's personality, and frankly can't get past it.

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Mike, I get what you're feeling, but I would agree with an earlier post, it's not hate.  It's that Eddie is a good player who would probably get us a very good starting pitcher and with 4 out of the 5 spots needing to be filled in next year's rotation the Twins NEED to get one SP thru a trade.  Even with the payroll giving them a LOT of room to operate, they can't just "sign everybody."  I want the Twins to aim high for starting pitching.  No Carl Pavano, Martin Perez types.  Go get a Cole or a Strasburg.  With Larnach and Kiriloff waiting in the wings we can't keep everybody.  I think BOTH will be better, more productive hitters than Eddie.  And that's not a slam on Eddie.  I watched Larnach come thru in the clutch time and time again 2 years ago in leading Oregon State to the NCAA Championship.  I was thrilled when we drafted him.  Kiriloff was drafted out of high school one year before Larnach.  He looks like a STUD.  Many are targeting Eddie for a trade because those two guys could be up in the bigs very soon, sooner if we trade Eddie.   

I know hate is a strong word, and perhaps the wrong one, but in the vernacular when someone is dumped on hate is often used.  However, the key to the choice of words is to get a reaction and it has worked, so many good posts is really important.

 

It is not just on this site, but common in others places too.   The trade Eddie, Eddie is overrated, often the text makes a case for no team actually wanting him.  Like I said, I never thought I would be writing an essay on Rosario like this, but the trade Eddie, Eddie is no longer valuable sentiment just got to me.  

 

I wish I could quote from the Gleeman and the Geek podcast.

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It could be about the growing salary, lack of hustle, lack of plate discipline, and at times wild throws/ not using cutoff man.

In this conversation I  would say that the salary in this era does not mean anything.  He is cheap unless you have a rookie to take his place. 

 

when the game is on the line I see Eddies step up with more enthusiasm and energy.  Maybe he gets bored at times, but his bat is a weapon I would not want to lose.

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I saw a lineup without Buxton, Kepler or Rosario in the outfield due to injury. It wasn't pretty. Rosario played even when injured.Yes it looked like he wasn't hustling but maybe he couldn't run all out. In reviewing certain plays you could see him dragging his right leg probably due to injury or weakness in it. This occurred through the end of the year.

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I wouldn’t call Rosario in 2019 “good”. His OPS+ was 106, his wRC+ 103...which for left fielders in the league is barely average. There were 31 left fielders in the majors with more than 200 PA that posted better wRC+ in 2019. There were a similar number of players that played significant time in LF that had better WAR.

 

I do think he was bothered by injury...and I do think he is a better player than he showed in 2019. Not sure I’d extend him though. Depends on what they think of their developing corner outfield prospects. And, while including him in a package for pitching might make sense, the package would still need to include a top-end prospect to return a top end arm with any team control.

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Who knows if other teams would give much for Rosario? Twins should look at which outfielder gets the most return in trade for a top of rotation Pitcher. I mean, they should consider offers for Kepler too They’ll probably need to add a less than top prospect to add to a trade for either Eddie or Max. IBuxton’s value has deteriorated due to his injury issues.

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I wouldn’t call Rosario in 2019 “good”. His OPS+ was 106, his wRC+ 103...which for left fielders in the league is barely average. There were 31 left fielders in the majors with more than 200 PA that posted better wRC+ in 2019. There were a similar number of players that played significant time in LF that had better WAR.

I do think he was bothered by injury...and I do think he is a better player than he showed in 2019. Not sure I’d extend him though. Depends on what they think of their developing corner outfield prospects. And, while including him in a package for pitching might make sense, the package would still need to include a top-end prospect to return a top end arm with any team control.

Really? You wouldnt call 32 HRs and 109 RBIs good?

I realize you didn't mention THOSE stats

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Really? You wouldnt call 32 HRs and 109 RBIs good?

I realize you didn't mention THOSE stats

Not good when you consider they played with a juiced ball.

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Not good when you consider they played with a juiced ball.

And I think with that comment, this discussion has just "jumped the shark."   You don't just simply replace 32 HRs and 109 RBI with a rookie.  How many of those 31 other leftfielders accumulated those stats?

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Yeah, the actual quote ini the MVP article was "Eddie Rosario, last year's Twins Daily MVP recipient, received only one sixth-place vote, despite putting up 32 home runs and 109 RBIs. The misleading nature of his raw totals didn't fool our panel"   Maybe not hate but totally dismissive of his contributions.    I defended him there and will add here that he has an OPS in the playoffs of 1.103.   That wasn't powered solely with 1 meaningless home run.   

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Can we please stop with the 109 RBI?  Many guys could have done that batting 4th in this lineup. 

 

I do not discount RBIs.  It is easy to say someone else would have it, but in this lineup everyone hit and others did not drive in 109 runs.  

 

Here are his clutch stats from BR - they are amazing

 

Clutch Stats

Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
2 outs, RISP 50  61 56 25 16 7 0 2 26 3 0 5 6 .286 .344 .518 .862 29 0 0 0 0 4 0 .292 115 137
Late & Close 74  103 100 22 34 4 0 7 26 1 1 2 13 .340 .353 .590 .943 59 3 0 1 0 1 0 .338 133 167
Tie Game 115  194 186 23 51 9 1 10 17 1 1 8 35 .274 .304 .495 .799 92 0 0 0 0 1 0 .291 98 117
Within 1 R 135  337 319 51 97 20 2 14 45 3 2 15 56 .304 .333 .511 .844 163 2 0 1 2 2 1 .331 110 131
Within 2 R 135  424 400 66 120 23 2 16 52 5 2 21 68 .300 .333 .488 .821 195 4 0 1 2 4 1 .327 105 125
Within 3 R 136  492 464 76 135 26 2 20 60 7 2 25 85 .291 .326 .485 .811 225 4 0 1 2 5 1 .319 102 123
Within 4 R 136  531 500 82 145 27 2 22 70 8 2 28 94 .290 .326 .484 .810 242 4 0 1 2 5 1 .319 102 122
Margin > 4 R 39  61 59 5 16 4 0 2 7 0 0 2 10 .271 .295 .441 .736 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 .298 83 94
Ahead 82  184 173 30 50 14 1 7 30 4 1 10 30 .289 .326 .503 .829 87 0 0 0 1 3 1 .314 106 118
Behind 95  214 200 34 60 8 0 7 30 3 0 12 39 .300 .338 .445 .783 89 4 0 1 1 1 0 .342 98 122

 

  https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=rosared01&t=b&year=2018

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He always brings up talk about being so-so. And then he excels. He actually shines, at times.

 

The BIG question is how much, and do you think he will get better or regress over time. If he gets better, is it bad if it is on another team's dime, if you can put those same resources into improving your own team and replace a player with a similar player at a lower cost (and the Twins have that potential in Raley, Rooker, Kirilloff, Larnach...although it is a gamble for 2020).

 

Going into 2020, the home run champs would then be light without Rosario in left field, Schoop at second, and possibly Cron at first. That's a helluva a lot of homers. Gonzales is NOT going to replace any of these guys in that arena. Sano might hit 15-20 more playing fulltime. Arraez might add some strength, but ain't gonna bang 20 yet. 

 

Of course, it is not about hitting homers but socring runs and fielding and keeping the ball in play.

 

So, you sign Eddie for 3-5 years. At some point the Twins will be without Rosario, Buxton and/or Kepler as the future comes on the field. Sadly, no one is a surefire explosion for 2020. (Wish Raley and Rooker had ben able to play in September. Also wish that with those two out the Twins ahd plunged and given at bats to Kiriloff instead of LaMarre, Miller and even Wade. Would've been a good looksee!)

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Mike, I get what you're feeling, but I would agree with an earlier post, it's not hate.  It's that Eddie is a good player who would probably get us a very good starting pitcher and with 4 out of the 5 spots needing to be filled in next year's rotation the Twins NEED to get one SP thru a trade.  Even with the payroll giving them a LOT of room to operate, they can't just "sign everybody."  I want the Twins to aim high for starting pitching.  No Carl Pavano, Martin Perez types.  Go get a Cole or a Strasburg.  With Larnach and Kiriloff waiting in the wings we can't keep everybody.  I think BOTH will be better, more productive hitters than Eddie.  And that's not a slam on Eddie.  I watched Larnach come thru in the clutch time and time again 2 years ago in leading Oregon State to the NCAA Championship.  I was thrilled when we drafted him.  Kiriloff was drafted out of high school one year before Larnach.  He looks like a STUD.  Many are targeting Eddie for a trade because those two guys could be up in the bigs very soon, sooner if we trade Eddie.   

The problem is - we do not know if Larnach is MLB ready, nor do we know with Kiriloff who has already had a lot of injury related time off in his MiLB career.  One will be on first, one in the OF.  But if they are not ready I do not want the Twins to slip backward.

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He always brings up talk about being so-so. And then he excels. He actually shines, at times.

 

The BIG question is how much, and do you think he will get better or regress over time. If he gets better, is it bad if it is on another team's dime, if you can put those same resources into improving your own team and replace a player with a similar player at a lower cost (and the Twins have that potential in Raley, Rooker, Kirilloff, Larnach...although it is a gamble for 2020).

 

Going into 2020, the home run champs would then be light without Rosario in left field, Schoop at second, and possibly Cron at first. That's a helluva a lot of homers. Gonzales is NOT going to replace any of these guys in that arena. Sano might hit 15-20 more playing fulltime. Arraez might add some strength, but ain't gonna bang 20 yet. 

 

Of course, it is not about hitting homers but socring runs and fielding and keeping the ball in play.

 

So, you sign Eddie for 3-5 years. At some point the Twins will be without Rosario, Buxton and/or Kepler as the future comes on the field. Sadly, no one is a surefire explosion for 2020. (Wish Raley and Rooker had ben able to play in September. Also wish that with those two out the Twins ahd plunged and given at bats to Kiriloff instead of LaMarre, Miller and even Wade. Would'vwee been a good looksee!)en

I am frustrated about our use of September call ups.  It is a place where I want debuts of players who are close.  We should use it to prepare for the next year.

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In a new Blog on this site Matthew Taylor illustrated what this blog is about - he chose numbers for all players - one number to illustrate that player - Rosario comes up and this is what he wrote - 

 

"3. Eddie Rosario
Number: 3.51

PITCHES PER PLATE APPEARANCE. This is the first number on this list that should be taken negatively. While Eddie Rosario posted a career high in R, HR and RBI this season, what I will remember most from Rosario’s 2019 season is his impatience at the plate. A huge gripe among Twins’ faithful this season was Baldelli’s stubbornness with keeping Rosario in the cleanup spot all season. It was maddening to have Kepler, Polanco and Cruz work the opposing pitcher into 7 or 8 pitch ABs and mount a rally only to have Rosie bail the pitcher out with a pop out on the first pitch of the at bat. The 3.51 P/PA illustrates this feeling perfectly as he finished dead last on the club in this statistic."

 

I would have chosen his HR total, His RBI total, or more important his clutch hitting - How about the OBP of 344 or the slugging 518 when there are two outs and runners in scoring position?  

 

Matthew wrote a very good and thoughtful blog and I am just reaching into the Rosario section because it fits what I am talking about - http://twinsdaily.com/blog/1299/entry-11681-twins-hitters-2019-by-the-numbers/

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